Chasing History: Red Sox Unearned Runs Scored 2015

BusRaker

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File this under completely random stats.
 
Red Sox Pace (17 UER in 13 games):  212
 
Most unearned runs scored since 1955 
 
 
Single Season Record (since 1955):  Source -- data downloaded from retrosheet
 
Season Team Games TotalRuns TotalER TotalUER
1956 NYA 154 857 728 129
1974 OAK 162 689 561 128
1969 OAK 162 740 615 125
1968 ATL 163 514 393 121
1962 SFN 165 878 757 121
1968 PIT 163 583 465 118
1979 SFN 162 672 555 117
1977 MIN 161 867 752 115
1965 MIN 162 774 660 114
2000 COL 162 968 855 113
1975 CIN 162 840 729 111
1974 SLN 161 677 567 110
1965 SLN 162 707 597 110
1993 ATL 162 767 657 110
1963 PIT 162 567 458 109
1962 CHN 162 632 523 109
1975 OAK 162 758 649 109
1979 KCA 162 851 743 108
1963 CIN 162 648 540 108
1974 ATL 163 661 554 107
 

santadevil

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100 win season, guaranteed. Sweet.
 
edit\ I think what you may want to look for, would be something more in line with, most unearned runs scored over, let's say a 13 game period and see if it's sort of a common happening, or a huge outlier.
 

BusRaker

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That would be some fancy SQL to find 13 consecutive game aggregates ... fairly easy though.  Might need a couple beers in me first.
 

BusRaker

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I am not sure how many times players protested hit/error calls Papi style back in those days ... retrosheet had no stats on that  ;-)
 

snowmanny

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santadevil said:
100 win season, guaranteed. Sweet.
 
 
Yup. A lot of those teams on that list were really good and/or scored a lot of runs.  The '56 Yankees, the '62 Giants, the '65 Twins, the '75 Reds were all World Series teams that led their league in runs, for example. 
 

Rice4HOF

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Well, there's probably (quick, someone else please look it up!), a strong correlation between total runs scored and unearned runs scored. Intuitively it makes sense. Teams that score a lot of runs are going to score even more if given extra outs. Teams that have trouble scoring, probably can't score much even given 5 outs in an inning.

So teams among the leader board for unearned runs scored should typically be teams that had strong offenses to start with. Anyhow, that's my hypothesis, didn't look at any numbers.
 

reggiecleveland

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This seems impossible to explain, not sayit can't be done, but there are so many factors.
 
How the guy in your home park scores things could be a factor. There were stories in the 70s about how tricky the sun was in Oakland. In the early years of night ball the lights were not as good. Would a good, team that didn't strike out a lot have better chance? 
 

BusRaker

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Season Team Wins Loses Games UER+ UE Runs ML Avg Runs+ Team Runs RunsAvg SB SBAvg SB+ K KAvg K+
1956 NYA 97 57 154 48 129 81 168 857 689 51 45 6 756 721 35
1969 OAK 88 74 162 48 125 77 80 740 660 99 77 22 954 936 18
1974 OAK 90 72 162 45 128 83 20 689 669 164 104 60 876 812 64
2000 COL 82 80 162 43 113 70 136 968 832 131 97 34 907 1045 -138
1968 ATL 81 82 163 42 121 79 -41 514 555 82 76 6 782 957 -175
1968 PIT 80 83 163 39 118 79 28 583 555 129 76 53 953 957 -4
1979 SFN 71 91 162 37 117 80 -48 672 720 140 115 25 925 771 154
1993 ATL 104 58 162 37 110 73 22 767 745 125 117 8 946 940 6
1977 MIN 84 77 161 35 115 80 144 867 723 105 116 -11 754 835 -81
1965 MIN 102 60 162 34 114 80 127 774 647 91 72 19 969 965 4
1962 SFN 103 62 165 33 121 88 155 878 723 73 68 5 822 879 -57
2014 ANA 98 64 162 33 88 55 114 773 659 81 92 -11 1266 1248 18
1980 DET 85 78 163 32 106 74 136 830 694 75 127 -52 844 777 67
1972 HOU 84 69 153 31 97 66 137 708 571 111 75 36 907 863 44
1982 SDN 81 81 162 31 104 73 -22 675 697 165 122 43 877 816 61
1985 NYN 98 64 162 31 106 75 -6 695 701 117 119 -2 872 864 8
2001 SEA 116 46 162 31 97 66 154 927 773 174 103 71 989 1080 -91
2009 ANA 97 65 162 31 87 56 136 883 747 148 99 49 1054 1120 -66
2005 NYA 95 67 162 30 89 59 142 886 744 84 86 -2 989 1021 -32
1987 DET 98 64 162 30 107 77 131 896 765 106 138 -32 913 965 -52
 

BusRaker

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My theories (aside from the loco official scorer)

1. Good hitting teams punish for receiving extra outs
2. Teams that strike out less force more errors
3. Teams with speed force defenses into more bad decisions
 

wiffleballhero

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Someone can bust my balls for this just being a hunch, but it seems like fielding is better now than it used to be.
 
Players are really good, more so than they likely were in the past, and the really poor fielding hitters are DHs.
 
Fielding is basically against the ball itself so this is not a number that would 'even out' as the skill level throughout the game changes and gets better.
 

Sampo Gida

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wiffleballhero said:
Someone can bust my balls for this just being a hunch, but it seems like fielding is better now than it used to be.
 
Players are really good, more so than they likely were in the past, and the really poor fielding hitters are DHs.
 
Fielding is basically against the ball itself so this is not a number that would 'even out' as the skill level throughout the game changes and gets better.
 
You would think if fielding was so much better that BABIP would be at historic lows, yet its maintained a level after the jump that started around the beginning of the steroid era, which took BABIP to the highest its been since the early 1930's.   Even with all the shifting its only dropped a point or two in recent years.  
 
One thing that may have changed is official scorers seem less likely to assign errors than they used to.  THis could be partly responsible for some of the BABIP inflation.   I have seen fly balls hit players heads and still go for a hit in recent years, and maybe my memory is faulty but I am sure it was far easier to get charged with an error in the past (I only go back to mid 60's though)
 

charlieoscar

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Errors were much more common in the earlier days of the game with the primary reasons probably being gloves and field condition.. Players went from no gloves to using ones that were like over-sized mittens. Today, gloves are scientifically designed to help gather balls in and retain them. When, now, you have immaculately groomed fields with hi-tech drainage systems, in earlier years you had fields with more roughly cut grass, barer areas caused by poor drainage. There was more chance of finding pebbles and rough spots in the infield. This might cause a variation in direction of the ball so slight that the official scorer might not see it but one that would be enough with older gloves to cause the fielder to bobble or miss the chance. And also today, there is instant replay available so a scorer can re-evaluate his call. Even artificial surfaces saw a big change from its earliest days.
 

Al Zarilla

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charlieoscar said:
Errors were much more common in the earlier days of the game with the primary reasons probably being gloves and field condition.. Players went from no gloves to using ones that were like over-sized mittens. Today, gloves are scientifically designed to help gather balls in and retain them. When, now, you have immaculately groomed fields with hi-tech drainage systems, in earlier years you had fields with more roughly cut grass, barer areas caused by poor drainage. There was more chance of finding pebbles and rough spots in the infield. This might cause a variation in direction of the ball so slight that the official scorer might not see it but one that would be enough with older gloves to cause the fielder to bobble or miss the chance. And also today, there is instant replay available so a scorer can re-evaluate his call. Even artificial surfaces saw a big change from its earliest days.
Good summary. I remember an old classic coke bottle somehow partially emerging in the dirt around shortstop in a major league game some years ago. Now they probably even rototill infields in the spring to bring up any foreign objects, then, groom them back to like pool table smoothness. Beltre did have his snakes at third that one year though.
 

BusRaker

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Definitely been a reduction of errors over the last century. This is average errors per team per season:

1920 218 1950 146 1980 138
1921 214 1951 149 1981 88
1922 203 1952 141 1982 132
1923 209 1953 139 1983 134
1924 191 1954 141 1984 135
1925 207 1955 136 1985 131
1926 196 1956 138 1986 132
1927 202 1957 132 1987 127
1928 187 1958 130 1988 124
1929 184 1959 139 1989 128
1930 190 1960 136 1990 122
1931 187 1961 149 1991 120
1932 183 1962 145 1992 118
1933 170 1963 146 1993 124
1934 174 1964 142 1999 117
1935 180 1965 142 2000 115
1936 183 1966 143 2001 112
1937 175 1967 137 2002 108
1938 171 1968 138 2003 106
1939 177 1969 143 2004 106
1940 177 1970 138 2005 102
1941 174 1971 130 2006 102
1942 169 1972 131 2007 99
1943 164 1973 144 2008 99
1944 174 1974 150 2009 95
1945 169 1975 155 2010 101
1946 160 1976 144 2011 102
1947 139 1977 143 2012 100
1948 147 1978 139 2013 91
1949 144 1979 139 2014 97
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Grouping that data (by eyeball)  you get three distinct areas - prewar, post-war and the twenty first century.
 
Its the 2000> stuff I find really interesting. What phenomena could account for this precipitous drop from a more or less steady decline in 1947-2000 ?
 
Is this solely due to better drainage and more advanced ballpark maintenance methods? Better scouting leading to better positioning leading to easier plays?
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Grouping that data (by eyeball)  you get three distinct areas - prewar, post-war and the twenty first century.
 
Its the 2000> stuff I find really interesting. What phenomena could account for this precipitous drop from a more or less steady decline in 1947-2000 ?
 
Is this solely due to better drainage and more advanced ballpark maintenance methods? Better scouting leading to better positioning leading to easier plays?
Increase in K/ flyball rates?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Grouping that data (by eyeball)  you get three distinct areas - prewar, post-war and the twenty first century.
 
Its the 2000> stuff I find really interesting. What phenomena could account for this precipitous drop from a more or less steady decline in 1947-2000 ?
 
Is this solely due to better drainage and more advanced ballpark maintenance methods? Better scouting leading to better positioning leading to easier plays?
 
I'd say so. A big factor has to be the ever improving video technology leading to better scouting and positioning leading to easier plays (and as was mentioned, video replay allowing more scrutiny of every play to get the calls "right").
 
Lot of new ballparks with state of the art maintenance opened right around the turn of the century too.  Twelve new parks opened between 1995-2004, and six more have opened since 2006.  That's more than half the league playing home games in parks that are under 20 years old.
 

SumnerH

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Grouping that data (by eyeball)  you get three distinct areas - prewar, post-war and the twenty first century.
 
Its the 2000> stuff I find really interesting. What phenomena could account for this precipitous drop from a more or less steady decline in 1947-2000 ?
To me there doesn't look to be any particularly massive decline post-2000 vs. 1980-2000, though things were more stable from 1947-1980.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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SumnerH said:
To me there doesn't look to be any particularly massive decline post-2000 vs. 1980-2000, though things were more stable from 1947-1980.
 
That chart is missing 1994-1999 as well
 
You are right though - there is a steady decline - but the post 2000 data seems to be  a tad more pronounced. Pity about the missing years.
 
Actually - the post 2007 decline is (one assumes) obviously  related to fewer balls in play - aka the rise of strikeouts due to PitchFX effects?.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Errors per balls in play. Balls in play calculated as PA - (K+BB+HR+IBB).
 
edit: Oh my god there's a Lahman package for R. 
 
 

BusRaker

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
That chart is missing 1994-1999 as well
 
You are right though - there is a steady decline - but the post 2000 data seems to be  a tad more pronounced. Pity about the missing years.
For some reason my import from Retrosheet to MS SQL Server missed these years. I'll have to add them this weekend.