I think the ceiling is higher. SM freaking U just made the playoff. It's a brave new world in CFB.
Chapel Bill: We're on to Carolina
- Thread starter Mystic Merlin
- Start date
From what I understand, SMU's NIL resources are pretty significant compared to UNC.
I think they currently are, but I would expect UNC to significantly increase theirs in short order.
Fair enough about Clemson but if "perenial top 20" is the high mark of the conference, that doesn't seem too big of a mountain to climb. SMU might be there too with their deep NIL pockets. My general point was that the path to competing for a conference title and thus a CFP berth is much easier in the ACC than if Bill had joined a mid-tier SEC or B1G school.
Colorado was 1-11 the year before Deion, 4-8 before that. I think he was starting at a much lower point than Bill is at UNC.
But who knows. There's so much turnover with the portal and NIL and all that that it is kind of impossible to project year-to-year.
Yes, they are not going to make a $10m per investment in Team Belichick without blowing out their NIL budget.
What UNC has done historically doesn't matter now. For this to be considered a true success, UNC has to immediately compete for the ACC title and a playoff spot. They could have hired anyone, far more inexpensively, to aspire to 7-8 wins and a mediocre bowl game.
I think Bill has to be great right out of the gate. He has to crush the portal now, like literally as we speak. He has to win 10+ and be in line for the ACC champ game this coming season. He has to strike while the novelty of playing for the NFL HC GOAT has resonance, and while the UNC boosters are all in in handing out gobs of NIL money.
I suspect that if UNC has a 7-8 win season the novelty dissipates quickly and top players go get their large NIL deals from any one of the other five dozen schools who are playing that game.
This will be fascinating to watch.
The winningest coach in UNC history just got fired for going 6-6 and getting to the Fenway Bowl.
A good season is competing for the ACC title. A great season is winning the ACC and/or qualifying for the CFP. imo.
Also, UNC's schedule is quite favorable next season. They have TCU, Charlotte, Richmond and UCF out of conference. ACC slate is Cal, NC State, Clemson, Duke, Stanford, UVA, Syracuse, Wake Forest.
There are 8 wins there even if they had just hired a run of the mill guy to replace Mack. BB's gonna be expected to top that.
There are 8 wins there even if they had just hired a run of the mill guy to replace Mack. BB's gonna be expected to top that.
https://www.readoptional.com/p/why-bill-belichick-is-heading-to
Some of this article from a local reporter is subscriber-only (you can sign up for a free trial, though), but it’s good stuff. I learned a lot about Walsh’s second Stanford tenure, in particular.
Some of this article from a local reporter is subscriber-only (you can sign up for a free trial, though), but it’s good stuff. I learned a lot about Walsh’s second Stanford tenure, in particular.
It wouldn’t shock me he tries to buy his way to the playoff in year 1 with that schedule.
This is already set in stone due to the new revenue sharing rules. That's the same NIL level as most of the other teams in the conference.
I'll try to find it, but someone had a note that it was a commitment to $20M before revenue sharing.
Edit- so actually looks like $12M is revenue sharing. So they doubled the non-revenue sharing commitment. Should put them as a solid spender within the ACC, top 5 would be my guess, but not overwhelming.
Last edited:
Forget shock, he has to IMHO. Like I said in an earlier post, he has to crush the portal/NIL now. Like literally right now. He needs to have his staff lining up visits to Chapel Hill for portalers starting immediately. He needs to have his team in place, sans HS recruits, by spring practice in March.
He's behind and has to close the gap ASAP. I really think that if he doesn't, and next season is a middling 7-8 wins against that schedule, he's in for a rough ride in year 2.
This bar has changed. If UNC doesn’t win the ACC and/or qualify for the playoffs next season it will be considered a flat out failure.
Ok, so who else is on the “Belichick spent this season on ManningCast securing Arch Manning to be his QB next season” train with me? He’s not making this move to put his reputation on the line w Max Freakin Johnson.
Well one bit of good news already for Bill in the portal... last year's start OC has pulled his name out of the portal and is going to stay at UNC.
I am an SMU grad and SMU has an assload of money/resources. NIL has catapulted them to levels they wouldn't have been able to reach before.
It also helps that the ACC stinks but SMU isn't a great comp for anyone because they have a ton of very, very rich graduates who are willing to spend tons on athletics
That might have been his plan but that ain't happening. If Texas wants someone, they are going to keep them. I think they have the largest NIL pool of any school by a decent amount
Deion is a very interesting case. He has a shitload of cache with all of the recruits and he has an ability to connect with them/speak on their level.
I don't think he's a particularly good coach/X's and O's guy (I'd argue he's actually pretty bad at both to be honest) but he is a very good motivator/CEO type. If you can hire good assistants that's a pretty good model for college football right now
Bill Belichick and Michael Jordan should walk into Austin and slide 10 million across the table.
Belichick was with him at the Manning Passing Academy this summer, with his Uncles all season and the Arch portal rumors have been out there for two years. If Arch likes Belichick > Sarkisian then UNC will pony up the money.
Sometimes money can’t buy everything and the Manning family has plenty of it. UNC would offer enough but it’s the experience of playing for Belichick that is priceless from a preparation standpoint.
I gotta say the "can he go out and recruit HS kids" thing is overblown, Deion Sanders has never gone on a single visit. He goes into the portal and says "this is who I am, this is who my assistant coaches are, if you want to get great connections and be ready to go to the NFL you should come here"
I saw Joel Klatt talking about the BB hire (potential, wasn't done when he was talking), and he talked about how he thought Bill was a great fit for the new model, because the way parity is coming to College Football, the idea of just stockpiling 5 stars isn't happening. That coaching on the field, and maximizing the talent of your players within a scheme are becoming more and more important, and that's what Bill is good at. And that building a new roster every year is important, which is the NFL model.
I saw Joel Klatt talking about the BB hire (potential, wasn't done when he was talking), and he talked about how he thought Bill was a great fit for the new model, because the way parity is coming to College Football, the idea of just stockpiling 5 stars isn't happening. That coaching on the field, and maximizing the talent of your players within a scheme are becoming more and more important, and that's what Bill is good at. And that building a new roster every year is important, which is the NFL model.
Yeah, I mean, he must be earning plenty of cash as it is, Texas is firmly established as a top program already, and he’s spent two years developing there. And just when he’s unquestionably set to succeed Ewers, it seems like way too big of a risk to jump to a UNC program that has to-date lived in the deep middle of college football. Guys in his position just don’t transfer, and I don’t see a compelling negative about Texas that would give him reason to entertain a move.
It seems like Arch would be the sort of player for whom maximizing NIL is actually the least important of any player. Cooper (while nowhere near the level of Eli or Payton) does have a net worth in the 10s of millions. I would think Arch cares most about how to prepare himself best to succeed in the NFL.
It's probably not worth the risk now; if he was a freshman looking at 2 years of not starting maybe, but who knows how long it'll be before UNC's O-line or WRs are close to TX (and that's also ignoring the fact that BB is obviously much more of a defensive coach, so it's very possible that UNC's defense improvement will happen first)
Belichick has said that he knows he's an incredibly hard coach to play for. I wonder whether he'll adjust his style at all, and if not whether his hard nosed approach will work with 19 and 20 year old kids.
Either way it'll be interesting. I'm rooting for him.
Either way it'll be interesting. I'm rooting for him.
Old friend Seth Wickersham gives BB a full-body massage in this piece.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42923468/in-choosing-unc-bill-belichick-chose-himself
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42923468/in-choosing-unc-bill-belichick-chose-himself
Re: the bolded... ehhhhh, kinda, I'm not so sure.
Yes, the portal is helping to level the playing field in CFB. Somewhat. But it's never going to resemble the talent parity of the NFL. Not even close.
Also, college practice time is very limited. There's literally only so many hours in the day where a staff can really teach.
I have no doubt that Bill can wring out max performance from his UNC players. But he also needs premium talent. Loads of it. Or he'll top out as an 8 win coach.
I'm not sure BB's approach is going to be dumping half of his NIL onto a single player or two. BB's MO at NE was always about depth of roster, not peaks. I would expect him to spread that NIL around to fill the non-glamour positions on both lines.
BB's schemes have always relied on players who had experience in his system. Easier to do when you can have a Brady, a DMcC, a Slater, a Wilfork, -- guys who are around for 8, 10, 12 years. Much harder to do in college, where you have someone for 5 years MAX. OTOH, perhaps it is easier to keep players' heads in th playbook in college than in the pros. (I could argue this either way.)
BB's schemes have always relied on players who had experience in his system. Easier to do when you can have a Brady, a DMcC, a Slater, a Wilfork, -- guys who are around for 8, 10, 12 years. Much harder to do in college, where you have someone for 5 years MAX. OTOH, perhaps it is easier to keep players' heads in th playbook in college than in the pros. (I could argue this either way.)
BB has already started. Penn's RB who had over 1200 yards and 9 TDs, Malachi Hosley, has gotten an offer from UNC.
I wonder if he'll target QB Fernando Mendoza from Cal, who just entered the transfer portal. Mendoza has an OK arm, is a decent (but slow) runner and seems like a pretty smart kid. But he may have bigger-name suitors.
See that Bill and the Tar Heels will be coming to Orlando to play UCF next September--will be going for sure!
I'm going to be on the sidelines with UConn at the Fenway bowl game, and due to the setup of the field, both teams actually will share the same sideline. So naturally, I'm REALLY hoping that Belichick will be there on the sidelines, even if he's not coaching. That would be super cool.
Funny moment at the press conference. They presented Bill with a UNC sweatshirt with the sleeves cut off.
Then the AD put on a sports coat with the sleeves cut off.
EDIT - BREAKING: Freddie Kittens is being kept on staff (rule unsaid)!
Freddie goes back with Nick Saban to LSU in 2000 so he's part of that tree between them.
BB has coached elite athletes for over 30 years. Men with skills from years of playing college ball and further perfecting their play learning and applying more complex skills and techniques in pro ball. Clearly BB has had success with those mostly hand-picked experienced players. IMO improving skills, technique and teaching the hows/whys of situational football to about 85, 18-22 YO young men, at the level Dean Belichick is accustomed to, might be a greater challenge than BB is used to. I guess the question is, will or can BB dumb down to coach up?
He won't have to dumb down anything. He's going to attract elite players mostly through the transfer portal just like Colorado has with Deion Sanders. I expect Bill to do better than Deion at this as well.
Right because he's used to coaching inexperienced 18 YO kids and having them pick-up and perfect technique that pro players have used for years. I would be open to the possibility this coaching challenge might present itself.