Champions League - The Final Four
- Thread starter Kliq
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I guess my big question here (and that is a great post @67YAZ ) is where have the "regular cycles of huge success" been for Ajax? I mean, they were Europa League runners up with the start of this current group 2 years ago, but they hadn't gotten out of the group stages of the champions league in over a decade. I mean, they've only gotten as far as the last 16 in Europa Cup once or twice in the last 20 years. If this model has been humming along and/or portends for the future, it's a pretty poor example, and maybe encapsulates why teams from smaller leagues don't succeed in Europe.
Great development systems nurture talent and get it to be fully realized. The problem for Ajax and any club in this model is that the incoming talent levels can fluctuate no matter how good you are at development. You don’t create a De Ligt or De Jong, you just hope you don’t screw them up when you get them.
And as much as those players have become superstar names, they’re here as much for their ability to draw Tadic and pluck Ziyech while holding onto players like Neres and Tagliafico who were starting to get some interest.
Which is a long way of saying that I don’t think there’s really and super sustainable model of staying competitive absent enough money to spend your way through gaps or get “lucky” in identifying underrated players who will fit well. Even spending can be perilous, as pointed out.
When Germany produced that talented generation everyone credited them with having embraced the Ajax model but the truth right now seems to be that they mostly ran into a talent goldmine who they properly nurtured. We haven’t seen a conveyor belt of German superstars since that first crop achieved so much. I have nothing against Ajax but I doubt we will see a Dutch conveyor belt either. Ajax has long been a good stepping stone location for young talented players who will eventually move to the bigger clubs. I don’t see them stepping outside of that lane due to a good run in this CL. It seems to me they’ll get picked apart and struggle to adequately fill the gaps to approach this level again. Basically the continental European Southampton with a shit ton more history
And as much as those players have become superstar names, they’re here as much for their ability to draw Tadic and pluck Ziyech while holding onto players like Neres and Tagliafico who were starting to get some interest.
Which is a long way of saying that I don’t think there’s really and super sustainable model of staying competitive absent enough money to spend your way through gaps or get “lucky” in identifying underrated players who will fit well. Even spending can be perilous, as pointed out.
When Germany produced that talented generation everyone credited them with having embraced the Ajax model but the truth right now seems to be that they mostly ran into a talent goldmine who they properly nurtured. We haven’t seen a conveyor belt of German superstars since that first crop achieved so much. I have nothing against Ajax but I doubt we will see a Dutch conveyor belt either. Ajax has long been a good stepping stone location for young talented players who will eventually move to the bigger clubs. I don’t see them stepping outside of that lane due to a good run in this CL. It seems to me they’ll get picked apart and struggle to adequately fill the gaps to approach this level again. Basically the continental European Southampton with a shit ton more history
The strategic change Ajax made this past year was to bring in a few key veteran players to complement the young core: Blind has been great, Labyad has been a flop, and Tadic has been a big difference maker. It will be tough to keep finding these undervalued/under-used vets and to time their signings with the maturity of young players...but it's key to European success.
It's also possible that it's just that Marc Overmars is really, really good at his job, and Ajax won't be able to sustain this if/when he leaves. Arsenal reportedly contacted him last year, and others will come knocking. I suppose the Ajax board have to hope that Overmars' history with the club trumps what others have to offer.
I don't follow Sevilla, Villareal, or Valencia that closely, but I think they are likely interesting case studies. I assume they are quintessential 2nd tier buying clubs - i.e. they do the scouting/acquisition of great, but not world class players that Barca and Real do not pursue due to skill, age, or playing time concerns, with the understanding that their best will get picked off by bigger clubs. But, if they are development machines, maybe @bosox4283 or someone else can clue us in. Nevertheless, Sevilla has qualified for 3 UCLs and 3 UELs in the past 6 years. Valencia's had 2 UCL qualifications sandwiched around 2 midtable finishes. And Villareal has 4 UELs and a UCL finish in the past 5 years.
The beauty of world football though is the sheer number of clubs, philosophies, and unique fact patterns floating around. I'm essentially alluding to Athletic Bilbao. Bilbao has finished in a UEL spot in 3 of the last 5 last 5 years and nabbed a UCL spot in 15-16. This while only fielding players from the Basque Region!
Edit: Some quick browsing on Transfermarkt shows that Valencia, Villareal, and Sevilla are 4th, 5th, and 6th in expenditures this year, far ahead of the rest of the pack and with significant differences between them (i.e. Valencia spends a lot more than Villareal, who spends a lot more than Sevilla, who spends a lot more than Betis). Bilbao is 8th (!) and very much in line with the rest of the league. Bilbao is also running a ~$50M profit in transfers this year, crushing everyone else by a huge margin.
Edit 2: MAN U is the least effective club worldwide at converting player expenditures into wins. United are currently paying approximately $38M/win!
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Wolves have been doing some pretty sketchy things. It's not clear to me whether they're cleverly bending the rules or flat out cheating when it comes to building their team, but they're probably not the best example here. They also have financial incentive to become better and move up the EPL table.
Ajax and a lot of other major market teams in small countries don't have that. The idea that was kicked around about a Super League actually would make a lot of sense for these type of teams. Ajax, Porto, Celtic, FC Kobenhaven, Anderlecht, Besiktas, etc. could all have a better chance at increasing revenue and attracting better players if they were playing much more competitive games against each other every Saturday. Realistically, it's the only way for those teams to become world powers. But it would also be a huge blow to their respective leagues to lose them and I really don't see that happening.
Liverpool lineup:
Alisson, Gomez, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson, Fabinho, Milner, Wijnaldum, Keita, Mane, Salah
Subs: Mignolet, Lovren, Firmino, Henderson, Shaqiri, Origi, Alexander-Arnold
Barcelona lineup: Ter Stegen, Roberto, Lenglet, Pique, Alba, Busquets, Vidal, Rakitic, Coutinho, Messi, Suarez
Surprised a bit at Gomez getting the nod, but the combination of Alba / Coutinho down the left with support from Rakitic would be a handful for Trent defensively. Gomez will likely stay stapled back at RB while Milner fills in at RM moving forward into attack
Alisson, Gomez, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson, Fabinho, Milner, Wijnaldum, Keita, Mane, Salah
Subs: Mignolet, Lovren, Firmino, Henderson, Shaqiri, Origi, Alexander-Arnold
Barcelona lineup: Ter Stegen, Roberto, Lenglet, Pique, Alba, Busquets, Vidal, Rakitic, Coutinho, Messi, Suarez
Surprised a bit at Gomez getting the nod, but the combination of Alba / Coutinho down the left with support from Rakitic would be a handful for Trent defensively. Gomez will likely stay stapled back at RB while Milner fills in at RM moving forward into attack
Agreed. Germany and Spain had a great run of top end talent but that appears to have dried up. While England, Italy and Netherlands appear to have some promising young players after a dry spell. Same with the USA.
Very interesting Liverpool line up, but they do have good bench options with TAA, Henderson, Shaqiri, and however minutes Firmino can give them.
I expect 'Pool to press high and force Coutinho, Messi, & Suarez to come deep to find the ball. Firmino's absence will be sorely missed there.
I expect 'Pool to press high and force Coutinho, Messi, & Suarez to come deep to find the ball. Firmino's absence will be sorely missed there.
Pretty disappointing that EV hasn't recognized the value of possession against pressing teams (i.e. starting Arthur over Vidal). Unless he has some clever plan for Roberto to help control the MF without letting Mane run wild, this seems like a suboptimal lineup. Also, selecting Roberto ahead of Semedo seems ill-advised considering Mane's speed. We'll see how this plays but I think EV got 2 selections totally wrong, with a 3rd (Coutinho over Roberto or Vidal in the MF) questionable one.
No reports of Liverpool teammates swinging golf clubs at each other before this one, but let's see what the Reds can do.
I'm going to need a replay of that. Looked like a 2 hand shove right in the back.
EDIT: No, nothing that warranted a pen.
EDIT: No, nothing that warranted a pen.
Never thought I'd see Wijnaldum as a straight swap for Firmino without the ball. Looks like more of a diamond in possession with Wijanldum dropping deeper
Messi picked something up from Neymar. Milner clearly got him very late but if that was the result and I was the ref that would cancel out any yellow card I was going to give
Liverpool have had some decent little openings, but never really carved out a great chance, save for the ball over the top for Mane. Pretty wasteful with the set pieces an aw. But they're not playing badly going forwards. A better final ball would help.
They need to keep the heed when Barca are in their half. Winning the ball then giving it straight back to Barca is suicide.
They need to keep the heed when Barca are in their half. Winning the ball then giving it straight back to Barca is suicide.
Agreed. Despite the scoreline, Pool are playing better and look more threatening. Both teams look fairly nervous and outside their comfort zone. Barca rarely drop so deep and defend with those numbers. The MF can't link passes very well, but the FBs are both playing so well in attack. On defense, Pool should continue to attack behind Roberto. Vidal is just not good enough for 90 minutes in this match. Llenglet also looking nervy.
That’s why pressing high and preventing the build up is so key. There’s too much talent on Barca to allow them time on the ball anywhere near the box.
It’s a good sign for Liverpool that Messi has been coming deep to defend and collect the ball. The overall approach is working. I’d like to see Firmino get in there by the 60’ mark and really get the press going.
When are Messi and/or Vidal going to draw a dissent booking?
Liverpool kick the ball out to touch for Lenglet to get treatment, and Rakitic boots it out for a goal kick. Nice
Liverpool kick the ball out to touch for Lenglet to get treatment, and Rakitic boots it out for a goal kick. Nice
Good lord, that ball from Van Dijk to find Salah preceding the Wijnaldum dummy / Milner shot was unbelievable
Coutinho subbed at 59'. Semedo on and Roberto to midfield
Coutinho subbed at 59'. Semedo on and Roberto to midfield
This has been working for me in Firefox: http://bfst.to/play/soccer-14.php
Would like Klopp to make his subs in short order... Shaqiri / Firmino for Milner / Wijnaldum please (or Gomez with Milner going to RB)
Would like Klopp to make his subs in short order... Shaqiri / Firmino for Milner / Wijnaldum please (or Gomez with Milner going to RB)
Gomez is a good player and great defensively, but not having Trent out there in the offensive end hurts.
The best thing about this game is that I think there's a pretty good chance Suarez gets punched in the face before the second leg is done.
Yeah I'm getting flashbacks to last night's Bruins game... passing it around looking for the empty net instead of putting balls in. MAtS hasn't been handling his rebounds all that well, just shoot when it opens up
That all started from Liverpool missing a few passes when playing it out. They had chances to switch the play over to the left but instead played the ball in the tighter areas forcing the defender to punt the ball and give it away. It invites trouble.