CFP Selection Committee rankings

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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So, we’re nine days (and a week of games) away from the first rankings released by the CFP Selection Committee.

There’s always a lot of chatter around these rankings, so I thought I’d get a thread going.

I don’t think there’s much drama around the top five— barring a massive upset this coming weekend, it will be LSU/Bama/tOSU/Clemson in some order, with Penn State at #5.

I’d have whoever wins Georgia-Florida at #6, but I don’t know how the Committee thinks about unbeaten Minnesota and Baylor.

Oregon and Utah each have one loss and have crept into the AP top 10, as though the writers feel bad for their East Coast bias. Either of these teams could rocket up the charts and secure a playoff berth if they win out, but for now I think the Committee will rank both lower than the AP has — because as someone who watches more than his share of Pac-12 football (night owl), I don’t see anyone out there who looks like a top-5 program or is likely to win out. Maybe I’m the one who’s out of step, but I doubt it.

I think the thing to watch for is who’s at #6. If the Committee has the Georgia-Florida winner there, that’s 3 SEC teams in the top 6 — signaling that the Committee sees the SEC as far and away the nation’s strongest conference, perhaps setting the stage for the loser of Bama-LSU to snag a berth at the expense of a one-loss conference champion. If Oklahoma, Oregon, or (less likely) Minnesota is at #6, then Bama-LSU is shaping up like an elimination game.

Thoughts?
 
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lars10

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Jul 31, 2007
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PSU plays Minnesota in two weeks... so that should answer one of your questions. I'm going to the PSU game vs Indiana so I clearly hope they win so I get to see an undefeated PSU team live for the first time in decades.
 

OilCanShotTupac

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I always like to keep track of the non-Power 5 school that might have a legit claim but will never make it. The highest-ranked is Cincy at #17, but they have one loss so they're out. The only undefeated is App State at 8-0 at #20. They have no shot even if they run the table, but it amuses me more than splitting hairs over which second-best SEC team deserves to make it.
 

canderson

Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016
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Jul 16, 2005
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PSU plays Minnesota in two weeks... so that should answer one of your questions. I'm going to the PSU game vs Indiana so I clearly hope they win so I get to see an undefeated PSU team live for the first time in decades.
Minnesota is the luckiest 8-0 team in history who has played absolute no one, you’ll get your undefeated viewing.
 

Awesome Fossum

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Jul 20, 2005
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I always like to keep track of the non-Power 5 school that might have a legit claim but will never make it. The highest-ranked is Cincy at #17, but they have one loss so they're out. The only undefeated is App State at 8-0 at #20. They have no shot even if they run the table, but it amuses me more than splitting hairs over which second-best SEC team deserves to make it.
SMU is undefeated and now ranked #15. There's no point in getting worked up over the playoff, but the race for the spot in the Cotton Bowl is interesting. Unless someone else is unbeaten, I think a one-loss American champion definitely gets the spot, so the big question right now is if App State can somehow find a way past South Carolina next week.
 

axx

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Jul 16, 2005
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SMU is undefeated and now ranked #15. There's no point in getting worked up over the playoff, but the race for the spot in the Cotton Bowl is interesting. Unless someone else is unbeaten, I think a one-loss American champion definitely gets the spot, so the big question right now is if App State can somehow find a way past South Carolina next week.
SMU-Baylor in the Cotton Bowl would be intriguing.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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— Clemson below Penn State is a bit of a surprise, but I can understand the reasoning.

— Ohio State over LSU is stupid, but doesn’t really matter — LSU will be #1 if they win Saturday; if they lose, they’ll drop a few spots.

— Georgia at #6 controls their own destiny.

— Oklahoma behind both Oregon and Utah is a bit of a surprise, especially with second-tier Big 12 teams like K-State and Ok-State ranked higher than expected.
 
— Oklahoma behind both Oregon and Utah is a bit of a surprise, especially with second-tier Big 12 teams like K-State and Ok-State ranked higher than expected.
This is the big news for me - it suggests that if Oregon or Utah wins out, Ohio State wins out (i.e., Penn State falls away) and Georgia loses again, they could snag the #4 seed ahead of the Big 12 winner. Of course, their remaining schedules are much less impressive than Oklahoma's, so they would probably need to each be 11-1 heading into the Pac 12 championship game.

Not that any of this matters, of course - LSU and Bama would both defeat Oregon or Utah by 30+ points - but still.
 

gmogmo

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Utah being 8th makes no sense to me, Oregon at 7th makes complete sense to me because they were in control of the Auburn game until the last seconds.
 

Zososoxfan

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Minnesota is the luckiest 8-0 team in history who has played absolute no one, you’ll get your undefeated viewing.
At the same time, I'm not buying this PSU's quality. Their D is really solid and KJ Hamler is a bawse, but this is a team with many more holes than Bama, Clemson, OSU, LSU, and likely UGA (haven't seen as much of Oregon or Oklahoma). But, they will have every chance to prove me wrong with @Minny, vs. IU (who's actually very good and fun this year), and the Death Star OSU.
 

BigMike

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Clemson at #5 is fair, or could be argued to high considering the best opponent on their schedule this year is the #4 team in the SEC West

Utah at 8 doesn't really surprise me. their schedule is poor, but I can't justify an Oklahoma team with a bad loss on their schedule ahead of them
 

DJnVa

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Clemson at #5 is fair, or could be argued to high considering the best opponent on their schedule this year is the #4 team in the SEC West
As one of the ESPN talking heads said last night, Clemson (assuming no ACC loss) is likely the only team that's a lock for the top 4, even though they're outside of it now.