Celts 2013 Win Prediction

[Brickowski]

Essentially Vaughn said after the game that they were using Nicholson against Scola because they felt he could could score at will on Scola. I can't really see any fault in the reasoning and they certainly busted tail against the T'wolves last night. The press is just too caught up in the tanking thing though to write better stories.

I don't know if Vaughn was tanking or not, but every coach in tank mode will have a seemingly rational explanation for why he did what he did.

If there is blatant tanking (we probably won't know until the second half of the season) it will be interesting to see what the league does about it, if anything.

 

[nighthob]

 
Durant led the Sonics to less wins...but that maybe had something to do with the team getting rid of its two best players that offseason?

 
Does it matter? The claim was that the draft pool was no good because there was no one in it that would lead to a 20-30 win turnaround. Essentially that means that all drafts suck because those players just don't exist except in legend. And it's not necessarily a bad thing, because Durant couldn't add "20 to 30 victories" to Seattle/OKC's win total they were able to draft two more cornerstone guys the next two drafts when they won 20 and 23 gmes.
 
There are no quick fixes for this Celtics team. It's going to take 3-5 years for them to right this ship, assuming they're lucky. Once you're in the lottery there's a better chance that you're still there in five years than contending for anything. And Boston doesn't have the advantage they did the last time this happened. In the middle of the last decade they had a top 10 guy on their roster who was also one of the best closers around. That player doesn't exist on this roster. They're hoping to find someone like that in next year's draft (and I'm hoping it's not Smart, while he has a higher floor than some of these guys, he also has a much lower ceiling).

 

[nighthob]

I don't know if Vaughn was tanking or not, but every coach in tank mode will have a seemingly rational explanation for why he did what he did.

If there is blatant tanking (we probably won't know until the second half of the season) it will be interesting to see what the league does about it, if anything.

 
They busted ass the next night against Minnesota and forced an overtime. Against Indiana they had Nicholson out there against the largely defenseless Scola. But Nicholson himself isn't much of a defender and Maxiell at least roughs up David West (which he hates). So it's an understandable strategy. If they start sitting guys like Toby Harris, let me know.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Currently on pace for 32 wins.

 

[wutang112878]

My guess is 33 for sentimental and lottery aspiration reasons.


Let me pat myself on the shoulder. I do hope I am wrong

 

[wutang112878]

I'll be the first to point out how idiotic it is to screw up the phrase while trying to brag

 

[wutang112878]

This deserves a bump.  They are currently on pace for 35.6 wins, win pythag suggests they are a 38.6 win team.  However, they currently rank 27th in the league in strength of schedule, so assuming they maintain the same level of play these numbers are probably going to come down
 
Perhaps this just amazes me, but they are 12th in the league in both eFG% and TOV%.  But 24th in the league in DRB%, 25th in the league in FT/FGA but somehow they are 12th in the league in defensive rating.  Maybe I am completely missing something, but I dont understand how they can be 12th in DRTG (same rank as eFG% & TOV%) and be so horrible at defensive rebounding and FT/FGA, you would think the 24th and 25th rankings would drag down the defensive rating significantly.  Can anyone make sense of that?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

They are 3rd in the league in 3P% allowed and first in the league in number of 3s allowed per game.  They are also a respectable 12th in the league in FG% allowed overall.
 
Basically, they defend the arc like crazy and take their chances with opponents penetrating and taking midrange jumpers. 

 

[wutang112878]

Yes, but eFG% factors in the 3rd (I actually see them as 4th on bbref) ranking in 3pt% and the 15th ranking in 2pt FG%, netting them the 12th ranking in eFG%  That makes sense to me because they are 3rd in 3pt attempts allowed so their great 3ptFG% defense doesnt bring the eFG% ranking down that much. 
 
I dont understand how you can have the same ranking in DRTG, eFG%, TOV% but be horrible at DRB% and FT/FGA.  I cant wrap my head around that.

 

[bowiac]

For one thing, eFG% is more important than any of the other "four factors". Just for this year for instance, eFG% has a R^2 of .561 with points allowed per 100 possessions, while FT/FGA is half that at 0.276.
 
I agree it's surprising however that the FT/FGA and DRB% have that little impact however. I'd guess it's just a fluke of the data of how things are clumped, but I'm not sure.

 

[wutang112878]

You know what, that actually makes some sense now, thanks.  So the Celts are 24th in DRB% at 73.3 but the avg DRB% is 74.4, and the Bobcats are the best at 77.5 a game, so thats really just a delta of 4 possessions in a category where they are awful.
 
And eFG% is really the most important by far.  Indiana is 9th in FT/FGA, 6th in DRB%, 11th in TOV%, but by far the best at eFG% at 44.4, next best is Chicago at 46.7 and the league average is 49.4  That leads to them being the best by far at DRTG at 95.9, next is Spurs at 98.3, then Bobcats at 100.1 and the league average is 104.6  So they can be 'good' at all the other 3 factors, but because they are amazing at eFG% it compensates for all of that.  I never, ever would have thought that rebounding and fouling actually matters so little.

 

[wutang112878]

This needs a bump. 
 
Celts current win % is 38%, the win pythag has them as a 40% and a 33 win team.  It will be interesting to see how much worse this gets over the next week.