Celtics vs. Warriors, NBA Finals

Who you got?

  • Celtics in 4

    Votes: 6 1.5%
  • Celtics in 5

    Votes: 18 4.6%
  • Celtics in 6

    Votes: 146 37.2%
  • Celtics in 7

    Votes: 127 32.4%
  • Warriors in 4

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Warriors in 5

    Votes: 23 5.9%
  • Warriors in 6

    Votes: 56 14.3%
  • Warriors in 7

    Votes: 15 3.8%

  • Total voters
    392
  • Poll closed .

Saints Rest

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In this "Draymond Green problem" video linked above, they showed the clips that Cabin Mirror references, but also a bit where, unlike in prior games, they were keeping the lane free from cutters right before drives, which was only serving to give the Dubs the freedom to clog the lane. The clip also shows the Celt's going 5-wide with all 5 guys outside the arc.
 

radsoxfan

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Could it lead to a stress fracture? Just curious. It's the finals, so the dude is going to play.
Highly unlikely, not typically a risk factor, though I suppose not impossible. I'm sure he will play regardless.

The key distinction in general is that he isn't risking joint/cartilage damage.

Playing through hip or knee pain could give Celtics fan IT/Kemba nightmares, though again we definitely don't know the details about whats currently going on in Rob's case.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Has anyone seen good breakdowns about the changes the Celtics made on offense? Seemed to me there was more backing out the ball and trying to attack a spread out defense in this one, with more drive and kicks that would lead to 3s (and frequently offense boards despite the open looks). A few times they tried to take on Wiggins, with time on the clock, which did not work well. When they got Steph on the block, or Poole in space it seemed to cause issues for the Warriors.
After each game, Steve Jones Jr. posts a ton of plays from the game. You can see that as the 538 article mentions, JB and JT were very intentional about trying to make their pass before they got too deep in the paint, basically once they saw where the help was coming from. I think Draymond in particular committed pretty early to his help.

View: https://twitter.com/stevejones20/status/1534705393514913794?cxt=HHwWhICp9ZKbr8wqAAAA
 

djbayko

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I believe it was if a KG-lead Celtics team would win a title. He famously hated KG.

A lot of the old port cellar crew migrated to a different board sometime ago, which is why you don’t see them here anymore.
Yeah, it definitely wasn’t 2004 as I would have remembered it being something that historic. It may be obvious but it’s important to note for historical purposes that Rocco never are the log. He got a lot of (ahem) shit over that.

@HomeRunBaker what was Simmons’ screen name here? I’m drawing a blank.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, it definitely wasn’t 2004 as I would have remembered it being something that historic. It may be obvious but it’s important to note for historical purposes that Rocco never are the log. He got a lot of (ahem) shit over that.

@HomeRunBaker what was Simmons’ screen name here? I’m drawing a blank.
I thought it was like BSG33 or something
 

Red Averages

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After each game, Steve Jones Jr. posts a ton of plays from the game. You can see that as the 538 article mentions, JB and JT were very intentional about trying to make their pass before they got too deep in the paint, basically once they saw where the help was coming from. I think Draymond in particular committed pretty early to his help.

View: https://twitter.com/stevejones20/status/1534705393514913794?cxt=HHwWhICp9ZKbr8wqAAAA
This was great. Thanks for sending it!
 

BaseballJones

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So they do drop coverage, giving Steph an open three, because they don’t want GS to pass the ball a few more times that will lead to….an open three for Steph?
Presumably he's positing that they're trading pull-ups for catch-and-shoot, along the lines of what @Eddie Jurak mentioned that Zach Lowe noted:

I just listened to a short Zach Lowe pod.

One thing he noted: in the regular season, Steph averaged ~5 catch and shoot three attempts per game versus ~6.5 pull up three attempts.

Thus far through 3 games, he has a total of 7 catch and shoot attempts and 30 pull up attempts. He's getting his threes, but, at least since Q1 game 1, the Celtics are making him work for them.

His big picture view of the Celtics' defense is that they have essentially taken all of the Warriors fancy passing attack away, leaving Golden State left with basically transition offense and Steph pick and rolls.
Is there data that show that he's (marginally) worse at pull-ups? Or is it more that they want him taking those- as compared to catch-and-shoots- because he has to expend more effort in doing so, and it's about wearing him down?

edit: derp - if you click through to Smith's tweet thread that's exactly what he argues.
 

DJnVa

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So they do drop coverage, giving Steph an open three, because they don’t want GS to pass the ball a few more times that will lead to….an open three for Steph?
Pull up versus catch and shoot. There are numbers in the link. Those are different kinds of shots.
 

tims4wins

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38.4% vs. 38.7% doesn't seem like a meaningful difference. 3 makes per 1000 shots? Also, Steph is 4 of 7 on C&S vs. 14 of 30 on pull-up this series. That's 57% vs. 47%, but very SSS, and both those numbers are phenomenal.

It's kind of amazing the Celts are up 2-1 given that Steph is 18-37 from 3 so far, when you think about it.
 

coremiller

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Yeah this doesn't make any sense. Curry's regular season pull-up 3P% is not against drop coverage, because nobody plays drop coverage against a Steph PNR anymore (or has since like 2015). If teams played drop coverage against Curry, his pull-up 3P% would probably be higher since those shots would be more open.

There may be other reasons to play drop coverage -- like the thing about preventing the Warriors passing/movement game from getting going -- but it's not to force Curry into taking lower percentage shots.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Taking care of the ball to open the game tonight will be massive. The Celtics came out committed to backdoor/crosscourt passes on drives by JB/JT/Smart. JB and JT mostly connected but Smart threw a bunch away and it is the kind of play that can be sniffed out on film. Jaylen especially will need to take care not to blindly throw the pass if it isn't there. I bet GS will be looking for it.

I don't really buy any argument for drop coverage. He's the GOAT shooter and any possession that ends in ANY kind of open three for him by design is a bad defensive possession, period. Just have to trust everyone's ability to recover. Steph driving on a big isolated is far from the end of the world and as we saw in the 4th last game, he isn't immune from throwing the ball away. The Celtics run was led significantly by TL jumping out and the D creating a turnover after forcing Steph to pass. What I would buy is that they prefer to hedge a little bit but not so much that you can't challenge the shot. TL can swing that with his quickness, Al not so much. Trust what got you here and what has won them two games in this series. You don't want your bigs chasing him around all night, and the Celtics have made a habit of outlasting teams in their wins by turning on the jets in the 4th, but there is a happy medium and if they can put the clamps on early and make an offensive run, they could create the 20 point lead they missed out on the other night.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah this doesn't make any sense. Curry's regular season pull-up 3P% is not against drop coverage, because nobody plays drop coverage against a Steph PNR anymore (or has since like 2015). If teams played drop coverage against Curry, his pull-up 3P% would probably be higher since those shots would be more open.

There may be other reasons to play drop coverage -- like the thing about preventing the Warriors passing/movement game from getting going -- but it's not to force Curry into taking lower percentage shots.
Well it seems like they've decided it's one or the other. So for his career it's better on catch and shoot so they are defaulting to that. You try to split the different then you can get confused. At least this way they start in a certain defense and likely adapt. That way every defender is on same page to start.

EDIT: I'm not saying it's the correct call, but if they see it as binary (do A or do B) this is what they have chosen.
 

Saints Rest

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Taking care of the ball to open the game tonight will be massive. The Celtics came out committed to backdoor/crosscourt passes on drives by JB/JT/Smart. JB and JT mostly connected but Smart threw a bunch away and it is the kind of play that can be sniffed out on film. Jaylen especially will need to take care not to blindly throw the pass if it isn't there. I bet GS will be looking for it.

I don't really buy any argument for drop coverage. He's the GOAT shooter and any possession that ends in ANY kind of open three for him by design is a bad defensive possession, period. Just have to trust everyone's ability to recover. Steph driving on a big isolated is far from the end of the world and as we saw in the 4th last game, he isn't immune from throwing the ball away. The Celtics run was led significantly by TL jumping out and the D creating a turnover after forcing Steph to pass. What I would buy is that they prefer to hedge a little bit but not so much that you can't challenge the shot. TL can swing that with his quickness, Al not so much. Trust what got you here and what has won them two games in this series. You don't want your bigs chasing him around all night, and the Celtics have made a habit of outlasting teams in their wins by turning on the jets in the 4th, but there is a happy medium and if they can put the clamps on early and make an offensive run, they could create the 20 point lead they missed out on the other night.
Considering how much they can (and have) drop off Draymond, they should be able to get up tight on Curry and still have a pretty good ability to cover since if Steph does beat the screen hedge, it's not really 4 on 3, it's really 3 on 3 as Draymond can be ignored (as can Looney).

Hedge the screens, keep tight on Klay.
 

ManicCompression

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Seeing as Steph makes the ridiculous look easy (Derrick White seems to waving at half of these attempts from behind and somehow Steph gets it off clean), it seems like the calculation is:
- Have a guard be as much of a pest as possible around Steph and keep a big dropped to keep the D solid
- Commit the big and put your entire defense in a blender that may end up giving Steph an even more open 3

He's going to get his, so limit the rest of the team and don't let them get into rhythm. Halfcourt D hasn't really been the problem for the Cs in this series - they turn GS into a below average offense in the halfcourt.
 

Eddie Jurak

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38.4% vs. 38.7% doesn't seem like a meaningful difference. 3 makes per 1000 shots? Also, Steph is 4 of 7 on C&S vs. 14 of 30 on pull-up this series. That's 57% vs. 47%, but very SSS, and both those numbers are phenomenal.

It's kind of amazing the Celts are up 2-1 given that Steph is 18-37 from 3 so far, when you think about it.
For the career, Curry (like most shooters) is better on catch and shoots. Keith Smith explains some of this in his thread.
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1535246069730267138?s=20&t=rBF_PvxJTZaDGhRjgRTzzg

Keith Smith: Now, that margin seems slims, but NBA Finals are won on the slimmest of margins. In the Finals alone, Curry is 4-of-7 on catch-and-shoot 3PAs. Curry is 14-of-30 on pullup 3PAs. There are no good answers vs Curry. Just less bad ones. Pullups vs catch-and-shoot is less bad. I'm gonna add one more thing, but it's complete guessing: I think Boston wants Curry doing a lot. On both ends of the floor. I think they want to challenge him and to see if he can hold up in the final five minutes without wearing down. Same as they did with KD, Giannis & Butler.

I would not sleep on the bolded, either. The Warriors play the most elegant style of basketball in the NBA - the Celtics defense wants to force them to grind it out, in the expectation that Golden State doesn't have the stamina that the Celtics do.
 

tims4wins

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For the career, Curry (like most shooters) is better on catch and shoots. Keith Smith explains some of this in his thread.
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1535246069730267138?s=20&t=rBF_PvxJTZaDGhRjgRTzzg

Keith Smith: Now, that margin seems slims, but NBA Finals are won on the slimmest of margins. In the Finals alone, Curry is 4-of-7 on catch-and-shoot 3PAs. Curry is 14-of-30 on pullup 3PAs. There are no good answers vs Curry. Just less bad ones. Pullups vs catch-and-shoot is less bad. I'm gonna add one more thing, but it's complete guessing: I think Boston wants Curry doing a lot. On both ends of the floor. I think they want to challenge him and to see if he can hold up in the final five minutes without wearing down. Same as they did with KD, Giannis & Butler.

I would not sleep on the bolded, either. The Warriors play the most elegant style of basketball in the NBA - the Celtics defense wants to force them to grind it out, in the expectation that Golden State doesn't have the stamina that the Celtics do.
I read the thread. It's where I got all my figures (38.4 / 38.7, 4 of 7 / 14 of 30). Smith doesn't give Curry's career C&S vs. pull-up stats, so I guess we have to take his word.

Completely agree on Smith's last point though. They want the Warriors (and specifically Steph) to be tired in the 4th. Game 2 it didn't matter too much, but he only scored 2 points on 1-4 shooting and 3 turnovers in the 4th quarter of game 3, and IIRC it was a pretty low number in game 1 as well.

Edit: Curry scored 4 points in the 4th of game 1 on 2-6 shooting (0 for his last 3). He did not play in the 4th quarter of game 2. I think there is something to getting him gassed
 
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Koufax

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That would explain the stark contrast between GS's performances in Q3 vs. Q4 of the games. I mean really, 11 points in Q4 of game 3? That's crazy for a high-octane team like GS.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Curry is taking about 12 threes per game against the Celtics, which is comparable to his season average. And the Celtics haven't played him the same way all series. Most notably, they dropped so far off him in Q1 game 1 so as to just be leaving him open, but they have generally not been dropping that far all the time. Third, the Celtics halfcourt defense has generally been good overall, where they have struggled is mostly in transition.

Is "deny threes to Curry" a viable halfcourt defensive strategy? If not it makes sense to tend towards letting him shoot more difficult ones.

If the result of drop coverage was Steph doubling his attempted threes per game, or somehow letting him take higher quality threes, then it would be a problem. So far that does not appear to be the case.

Also worth noting that, in this series, his usage rate (34.0) is up a bit over reg season (30.8) and playoffs (31.9 including finals), while his assist rate (20.6) is down from regular season (30.4) and playoffs (28.1 including finals).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I read the thread. It's where I got all my figures (38.4 / 38.7, 4 of 7 / 14 of 30). Smith doesn't give Curry's career C&S vs. pull-up stats, so I guess we have to take his word.

Completely agree on Smith's last point though. They want the Warriors (and specifically Steph) to be tired in the 4th. Game 2 it didn't matter too much, but he only scored 2 points on 1-4 shooting and 3 turnovers in the 4th quarter of game 3, and IIRC it was a pretty low number in game 1 as well.

Edit: Curry scored 4 points in the 4th of game 1 on 2-6 shooting (0 for his last 3). He did not play in the 4th quarter of game 2. I think there is something to getting him gassed
Per NBA.com's excellent shots dashboard, Steph is 39% on C&S this regular season vs. 37.4% on pull-ups. A difference but a fairly small one and most years it appears to be a 2%-3% difference.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm gonna add one more thing, but it's complete guessing: I think Boston wants Curry doing a lot. On both ends of the floor. I think they want to challenge him and to see if he can hold up in the final five minutes without wearing down. Same as they did with KD, Giannis & Butler.
I also don't think the Cs want the other GSWs to get involved. I think the Cs are, to use a football term, trying to make GSW "one dimensional" and see if they can pressure Curry later in the game to win the 4Q.

Playing 4-3 all day is when all of the other GSWs get their points.

Is "deny threes to Curry" a viable halfcourt defensive strategy? If not it makes sense to tend towards letting him shoot more difficult ones.
The only way to deny Curry 3Ps is to keep the ball out of his hands, and the NBA is too good for that. It's nearly impossible for the Cs to deny Curry the ball on, for example, a handoff.
 

nighthob

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The best part of the story is that he ultimately left the board that he helped create for this very same reason. :D:D:D
The funniest part was that it wasn’t even another poster replying to him, they just laughed at his assertion that the Celtics needed to put the ball in Rondo’s hands for end of quarter/half/game plays.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Completely agree on Smith's last point though. They want the Warriors (and specifically Steph) to be tired in the 4th. Game 2 it didn't matter too much, but he only scored 2 points on 1-4 shooting and 3 turnovers in the 4th quarter of game 3, and IIRC it was a pretty low number in game 1 as well.
This exactly.

The Cs know there are no good choices with Curry. Make him work and make it difficult to get others involved, which often gives Steph et al more space.

The Cs relative youthfulness is a low key advantage in this series in terms of endurance. Maybe it even helps because while they are close, none of these people has yet realized how much it takes to sustain a long playoff run and get over the final hump. When you read about the toll these playoffs take, its not a surprise that repeating championships is extremely difficult.
 
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nighthob

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38.4% vs. 38.7% doesn't seem like a meaningful difference. 3 makes per 1000 shots? Also, Steph is 4 of 7 on C&S vs. 14 of 30 on pull-up this series. That's 57% vs. 47%, but very SSS, and both those numbers are phenomenal.

It's kind of amazing the Celts are up 2-1 given that Steph is 18-37 from 3 so far, when you think about it.
It’s not the offensive output per 3PFGA that’s governing this, I think, so much as they’re deliberately taking steps to wear him out. The pull up shots are more physical work, but this isn’t in isolation. Look at the way that they hunt Steph at the other end of the floor. The Celtics approach seems to be to make him work every second that he’s on the floor and force the Warriors to leave him completely gassed in the 4th quarter or take him off the floor entirely for more rest. And every minute Steph’s on the bench is a minute that the Warriors probably can’t score enough to beat the Celtics.
 

djbayko

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Per NBA.com's excellent shots dashboard, Steph is 39% on C&S this regular season vs. 37.4% on pull-ups. A difference but a fairly small one and most years it appears to be a 2%-3% difference.
That’s this season including regular season, right? I wonder f the Celtics believe that there should be a more stark difference in the percentages when facing playoff-intensity defense, and more specifically, ‘22 Celtics level playoff defense. It kind of makes sense to me. If you’re constantly being bodied and having a hand right in your face, the extra comfort of being able to spot up rather than having to shoot of the dribble could be even more significant. Of course, that’s not really showing in his numbers so far this series, but that could just be SSS.
 

reggiecleveland

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My take on Dray is optimistic. I hope this is the death rattle of a once proud elite-level two-way player. He really can't score anymore and has to resort to dirty tricks to make an impact. I will not jinx it by saying I am sure this is where we are, but I hope.
 

BaseballJones

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39.4% vs 37.4% is 1.6 more makes per 100 shots, if I did the math correctly. That’s just under five points per 100 shots. Not meaningless, and over a 7 game series Steph may shoot 100 threes. But in any given game it’s virtually meaningless.

I get that choices need to be made but it’s not super helpful I wouldn’t think.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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One thing this Ringer piece on Jaylen pointed out is that, once Golden State opted to put Draymond on Jaylen as the primary defender, it reduced the ability of help defense to clamp down on Jaylen once he beats his man off the dribble since Draymond is generally their best help defender at the basket. I wonder if Kerr goes away from that if Jaylen takes advantage of that matchup early.
 

Shaky Walton

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My prediction before the series was Celts in 6. The optimistic side of me now thinks 5 is possible. And of course it could happen in 7 or not at all (F that answer).

But I was lucky enough to go to Game 6 in 2008, and after Game 3 on Wednesday night, sucked it up to use Stub Hub get in the building with the Wife for Game 6. So if I had perfect knowledge that they would win in 6, I would root for the Celts to win tonight and lose in SF, with the crowing game just like it was in 2008, at home. And glorious. And fabulous. And in just the right way to make Klay Thompson cry.

But then again, I had tickets for World Series Game 5 in 2004.
 

PedroKsBambino

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(Took out something old I forgot was a draft)

Simmons questioned the signing of Edgar Renteria "on the grounds that Simmons 'never felt scared' when ER batted during the WS." There's a brief discussion of this in the Simmons thread.

There were a bunch of responses to this but SJH was, errr, the most "vocal" critique when Simmons tried to defend his thesis.


Without any inside knowledge, my bet is that Simmons thought he could monetize the concept but HRB can correct me if I'm wrong.
Of course, Simmons was right about the signing in the end….which is not to say he arrived at his conclusion the best way.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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The idea that Tatum grabbed Draymond first on that is ludicrous. I am a big fan of reggiecleveland and HRB; that said, the fixation with being contrarian on officiating has made them each look vastly less knowledgeable this playoffs than they both are. I hope they return to posting on the game and leave the contrarian schtick behind, because they both are approaching kitchkinet territory with commentary like Re
Which play are you referring to? I don’t ever recall commenting on a play such as this between Tatum and Draymond. I call everything the way I see it but don’t recall this play or caring much about it.
 

slamminsammya

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39.4% vs 37.4% is 1.6 more makes per 100 shots, if I did the math correctly. That’s just under five points per 100 shots. Not meaningless, and over a 7 game series Steph may shoot 100 threes. But in any given game it’s virtually meaningless.

I get that choices need to be made but it’s not super helpful I wouldn’t think.
It's more meaningless in the sense that we can't be confident its a true difference versus just random variance.
 

tims4wins

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My take on Dray is optimistic. I hope this is the death rattle of a once proud elite-level two-way player. He really can't score anymore and has to resort to dirty tricks to make an impact. I will not jinx it by saying I am sure this is where we are, but I hope.
Feel the same way but hoping it comes true with him not cracking 10 points in a single game this series and the Celts closing this out in 5 or 6
 

PedroKsBambino

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Which play are you referring to? I don’t ever recall commenting on a play such as this between Tatum and Draymond. I call everything the way I see it but don’t recall this play or caring much about it.
sorry was an old draft I forgot was there and had decided not to post—and I don’t think you commented on that specific one.
 

HomeRunBaker

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sorry was an old draft I forgot was there and had decided not to post—and I don’t think you commented on that specific one.
Gotcha.

Life has been so crazy lately that I hadn’t even realized that I’ll be up in Boston area until day after Fathers Day in 9 days!! We need to close this out quick I want to go to a parade!!!!
 

SteveF

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One thing this Ringer piece on Jaylen pointed out is that, once Golden State opted to put Draymond on Jaylen as the primary defender, it reduced the ability of help defense to clamp down on Jaylen once he beats his man off the dribble since Draymond is generally their best help defender at the basket. I wonder if Kerr goes away from that if Jaylen takes advantage of that matchup early.
My guess is Golden State will start g4 with Wiggins on Brown, Thompson on Tatum. Wiggins can keep Brown off the rim and Draymond can be on a big and closer to the rim to provide help/defensive rebounding. The question becomes whether Thompson can stay in front of Tatum. If he can, GSW are in no worse a situation than before and the Celtics will just screen Curry onto Tatum and there will either be a switch or a show/blitz.
 

Cornboy14

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The pull up shots are more physical work, but this isn’t in isolation.
I’m not saying your wrong, but I’m not certain about this. Some of those off the dribble threes were early in the clock. I feel like having Steph run around screens for 15 seconds before getting a catch and shoot three might take more out of him.
 

Pesky Pole

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Sorry if this was posted and I missed it but referees tonight are Capers, Fitzgerald and Lewis. So all new crew tonight which is interesting.
 

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SteveF

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That's more of a 5 out, steph high pnr lineup. I'll be interested to see if/how quickly that forces Boston to go smaller.
 

InstaFace

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It's been a while, but I remember the original claim of "If ____, I'll eat a log of my own shit", but don't remember the context. Anyone remember what went down that made it a SoSH legend?
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Let’s get back to the game. Will this years NBA Champions have any guards that can handle the ball or will Tatum need to be our full time PG in the second half?

Edit: Ime makes the adjustment with Tatum back to running the offense. Probably would like to save this for the 4Q rather than wearing him down but it’s necessary without a true PG facing this type of pressure.
 
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