Celtics vs. Warriors, NBA Finals

Who you got?

  • Celtics in 4

    Votes: 6 1.5%
  • Celtics in 5

    Votes: 18 4.6%
  • Celtics in 6

    Votes: 146 37.2%
  • Celtics in 7

    Votes: 127 32.4%
  • Warriors in 4

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Warriors in 5

    Votes: 23 5.9%
  • Warriors in 6

    Votes: 56 14.3%
  • Warriors in 7

    Votes: 15 3.8%

  • Total voters
    392
  • Poll closed .

Kliq

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I don't think there's as big a gap between 2019 Kawhi and now Tatum as is commonly believed (Tatum is a much, much better passer), and that supporting cast for Toronto was really, really good as a supporting cast.

If healthy, I say Boston, but it's quite close, and mostly based on how the healthy 2022 Celtics have blown out everyone, and have had the top point differential in the playoffs even without health, and playing by far the toughest playoff schedule.
I'd say that skill-wise Kawhi and Tatum are pretty close. The thing that stood out about that Kawhi run was his terminator-like confidence in himself and his ability to drone out all the noise and just kill it every night that I think Tatum still needs to get to (and perhaps he does that this series). Tatum can still get psyched out by bad refereeing and physical defense, on occasion.
 

bankshot1

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This got me wondering about the toughest postseason slate a team has faced on the way to a title.

The 87 Celtics didn't win, but... jeez:
  • 3-0 sweep against Jordan and the Bulls
  • 7 games against the Bucks (50-32)
  • 7 games against the Pistons (52-30) with Laimbeer and Mahorn trying to injure guys
  • Then, the 65-17 Lakers in the finals
Good pluck.

That's a whole lotta future NBA titles in those opponent's resume.

Celts front line (Chief McHale, shadow of '86 Walton) was crippled with bad/broken wheels by the time they survived the Pistons and had to play Showtime.
 

slamminsammya

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I'd say that skill-wise Kawhi and Tatum are pretty close. The thing that stood out about that Kawhi run was his terminator-like confidence in himself and his ability to drone out all the noise and just kill it every night that I think Tatum still needs to get to (and perhaps he does that this series). Tatum can still get psyched out by bad refereeing and physical defense, on occasion.
Kawhi's D at that point was not that good but the commentary hadn't caught up due to his reputation. Tatum has an advantage on that side of the ball.
 

DJnVa

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Huh? The jawing from Jaylen began well prior to this clip which is why Steph was giving him that mouthy thing with his hands.
Huh what? I'm not disagree with you at all. I'm saying that Jaylen MAY HAVE 100% DESERVED whatever Curry did and that Jaylen may still be upset about it because that's how people are.
 

Sam Ray Not

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One "historically tough path" champ that pops to mind, at least in terms of name brands vanquished, is in the 2011 Mavericks, who knocked off (1) the Kobe/Gasol/Odom Lakers, (2) the Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka Thunder, and (3) the LeBron/Wade/Bosh Heat en route to their franchise's only 'chip. Even their first round opponents were not patsies: a pretty deep 48-34 Blazers squad featuring LMA, Roy, Batum, Camby, Gerald Wallace, Andre Miller, and Wes Matthews.

None of their opponents may have been quite their peak iterations, but that was still a pretty mind-blowing run for a team who themselves were considered only a fringe contender at best going into the playoffs. And as a bonus: they got through the Lakers-Thunder-Heat gauntlet with only three total losses (4-0 v LA, 4-1 v OKC, 4-2 v Miami).
 

m0ckduck

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One "historically tough path" champ that pops to mind, at least in terms of name brands vanquished, is in the 2011 Mavericks, who knocked off (1) the Kobe/Gasol/Odom Lakers, (2) the Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka Thunder, and (3) the LeBron/Wade/Bosh Heat en route to their franchise's only 'chip. Even their first round opponents were not patsies: a pretty deep 48-34 Blazers squad featuring LMA, Roy, Batum, Camby, Gerald Wallace, Andre Miller, and Wes Matthews.

None of their opponents may have been quite their peak iterations, but that was still a pretty mind-blowing run for a team who themselves were considered only a fringe contender at best going into the playoffs. And as a bonus: they got through the Lakers-Thunder-Heat gauntlet with only three total losses (4-0 v LA, 4-1 v OKC, 4-2 v Miami).
Good one. Indeed, there’s an amazing number of all-stars and HOFers on that list.

I’d forgotten that the Lakers title defense ended in such ignominy. What was the postmortem on that, anyway? They were good in the regular season and returned all the key pieces of their title run from the year before. I guess the league was moving towards 3s and the Lakers weren’t really adapted to that style of play. But I also vaguely remember there being some chemistry issues as well (not surprising, when Kobe is involved).
 

Kliq

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Good one. Indeed, there’s an amazing number of all-stars and HOFers on that list.

I’d forgotten that the Lakers title defense ended in such ignominy. What was the postmortem on that, anyway? They were good in the regular season and returned all the key pieces of their title run from the year before. I guess the league was moving towards 3s and the Lakers weren’t really adapted to that style of play. But I also vaguely remember there being some chemistry issues as well (not surprising, when Kobe is involved).
That was a really shocking result at the time; as you mention the Lakers were good in the regular season and had won 57 games.

It was before he got injured, but Kobe was starting to decline and was a black hole on offense (11 assists over four games in that series) which was a major problem. The Lakers also hadn't quite adopted the three point revolution, and during the series Dallas (who shot 46% from three as a team) made 34 more three pointers than the Lakers.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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ObstructedView

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Their home record on the other hand..
edit: GS has YET to lose at home in the playoffs.
Miami hadn't lost at home through the first two rounds, then proceeded to drop 3 of 4 to the Celtics in South Beach - including a Game 7 in which they got a ton of help from the refs but still lost wire-to-wire.

One of the odd national-media narratives that seems to have taken hold is that Boston isn't mentally tough since they've had some late-game struggles, but you can't be fragile and have the type of road success that they've had. They also bounced back from gut-punch losses to win road elimination games the last two rounds. The end-of-game stuff seems to be a lot more about scheme and shot selection than about being rattled.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Ime's comments on TL here: Ime Udoka talks health of Smart, Williams ahead of Game 1 vs. Warriors (usatoday.com)

“Rob’s alright,” shared Udoka. “He’s good. He felt good; his minutes (in Game 7 of the East finals) were low, he only played 14 in that game.”
“We tried to keep him in the lower portion if we could,” the Celtics coach continued.
“That’s beneficial for him going forward, but the days off as well. So, he should feel better in general. He’s getting looked at today and will continue to get his treatment and rehab in order to get swelling down and some of the pain, and (to get) mobility back.”
“So, it’s going to be an ongoing thing like I mentioned,” suggested Udoka.
“He’s day-to-day pretty much through the playoffs, he should feel better with time in between,” he noted. “Especially with these two days off in between games as opposed to playing every other day.
“I think going back to the Milwaukee (Bucks) series, 17 days straight every other day, and so that’s going to take a toll on you coming off of surgery.”

I guess this sounds positive?
 

lovegtm

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Ime's comments on TL here: Ime Udoka talks health of Smart, Williams ahead of Game 1 vs. Warriors (usatoday.com)

“Rob’s alright,” shared Udoka. “He’s good. He felt good; his minutes (in Game 7 of the East finals) were low, he only played 14 in that game.”
“We tried to keep him in the lower portion if we could,” the Celtics coach continued.

“So, it’s going to be an ongoing thing like I mentioned,” suggested Udoka.
“He’s day-to-day pretty much through the playoffs, he should feel better with time in between,” he noted. “Especially with these two days off in between games as opposed to playing every other day.
“I think going back to the Milwaukee (Bucks) series, 17 days straight every other day, and so that’s going to take a toll on you coming off of surgery.”

I guess this sounds positive?
At least I believe him wrt Smart.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Huh what? I'm not disagree with you at all. I'm saying that Jaylen MAY HAVE 100% DESERVED whatever Curry did and that Jaylen may still be upset about it because that's how people are.
Ah ok gotcha. I misunderstood.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I took the C's in 6 against the Nets

I took the C's in 6 against the Bucks.

I took the C's in 6 against the Heat.

I was wrong every time.

And I'm taking the C's in 6 against the Warriors. Because why the fuck would I change anything now?
 

128

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This is the longest break between games the C's have had since the middle of the second-round series with Milwaukee. I gotta believe this is going to help Time Lord considerably, as will the fact that games in the Finals aren't crammed into a tight window.
 

Red Averages

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This is the longest break between games the C's have had since the middle of the second-round series with Milwaukee. I gotta believe this is going to help Time Lord considerably, as will the fact that games in the Finals aren't crammed into a tight window.
totally. They are also coming off of a very intense two series mentality. Golden State has had a long layoff and a less competitive playoff run. Very interested to see how the Warriors come out in the first half.
 

mostman

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That’s funny that Steph struggles against his younger brother. Imagine those 1:1s growing up. Also, VanVleet on the bottom of both JT and JBs list.
 

koufax32

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I don’t see D. White on Steph’s list and would be curious about how he compares. Probably not enough data though because of SC’s injuries.

Seems like there are a lot of SSS issues with some of this data.
 

djbayko

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That’s funny that Steph struggles against his younger brother. Imagine those 1:1s growing up. Also, VanVleet on the bottom of both JT and JBs list.
Yeah, that rang true to me when I read it. You know all of your best friend's moves like the back of your hand.
 

nighthob

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Now let’s discuss how the Warriors lost to Toronto after two of their four best players had a leg destroyed.
Given that the Warriors destroyed the leg of Toronto’s best player (he was a Spur when it happened, true, but the man responsible for Leonard’s injury was the NBA’s answer to Tie Domi) it seems only fair.
 

nighthob

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Kawhi's D at that point was not that good but the commentary hadn't caught up due to his reputation. Tatum has an advantage on that side of the ball.
His quad was ruined by then, and it was, sadly, his last hurrah. I’m glad he got his second ring. He was one of my favorites.
 
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chilidawg

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I don’t see D. White on Steph’s list and would be curious about how he compares. Probably not enough data though because of SC’s injuries.

Seems like there are a lot of SSS issues with some of this data.
I think Curry might see a lot of Mr. White. White's got some of that same perpetual motion energy that Curry has.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think Curry might see a lot of Mr. White. White's got some of that same perpetual motion energy that Curry has.
I expect that we’ll do a ton of switching rather than chasing everyone around the perimeter and baseline with our heads cut off. I hate this matchup from Curry’s side. He’s going to see a combination of length (Tatum/Jaylen) and strength (Smart) in his jersey with the shot clock winding down as well as from White who is familiar with his work.
 

benhogan

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as long as Grant doesn't get switched on to Curry :eek:

If my memory serves me correctly there was a game last year where Curry rinsed Fat Grant numerous times
 

PedroKsBambino

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Agree there's a lot of SSS in there, and can't be sure without getting into the raw data, but I think I may see a bit of signal that Jaylen struggles a bit more against bigger guys and Jayson a bit more against smaller guys. Which would be interesting matchup-wise if so....the general assumption is Wiggins would start on Tatum and Klay on Brown but that may be backwards.

That doesn't seem wrong to me eye-test wise, though a lot of noise there
 

NoXInNixon

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The Celtics and Bucks are the two best teams in the NBA, and there's a pretty big step down to whoever the third best is. If the officiating were competent, the Celtics would have beaten the Heat 5 games to 2. The Warriors are about as good as the Heat. If the officiating is competent, the Celtics win in 5. If it isn't, there's no way to predict the outcome of a rigged series.
 

Cellar-Door

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Eh, that list is mostly "who plays pg on a good defense". I don't think it is telling you much about one on one matchups.
yeah I was going to say, team stats like that are really just telling you what teams play good D. Like there are 3 LACs guards of the past few years on that list high because.... the Clippers also have Kawhi and PG13 and are a top defensive team, hence why no matter which PG is in they look good on that stat.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Guy from Forbes dug into Cleaning the Glass playoff database (from 2003-04 season) and found that Cs halfcourt offense is historically good: https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaneyoung/2022/05/31/inside-the-numbers-of-the-boston-celtics-historic-playoff-defense-entering-nba-finals/?sh=607a37594f4c.

Basically, he found that the Cs are allowing 86.8 points per 100 possessions in the half-court, which is 9.1 point per 100 possessions better than league average. That next closest defense was the 2006 Heat, which was 6.9 points per 100 possessions better than league average (83.1 versus 90.0), and then the 2017 Warriors, which was 6.8 points per 100 possessions better than league average (89.3 versus 96.1).

My guess at this point is that both teams are going to have trouble scoring in the half-court so it's really going to come down to transition. It's probably another series where the team that can limit live ball TOs the most will win.
 

Bleedred

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Ticket prices are starting to normalize a little bit. I'm seeing the cheapest down about $100-150 from where they were yesterday. Still completely ridiculous though, and I wonder if we get some tamer crowds than we had in rounds 1 and 2 given how expensive it is to attend. I didn't think the ECF crowds were as good as the Bucks and Nets crowds.
I was going to surprise my son, who has had a tough couple of months, with tickets to game 3 or 4. As of yesterday, decent seats are at least $1,500 per ticket. I won't be surprising him with tickets.
 

Saints Rest

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I haven't seen GSW play much at all this year -- just a little bit of a couple playoff games plus the C's regular season game where Marcus rolled up on Curry -- but I'm wondering how some of the Celtics' past successful actions might play in this series which we didn't see much of in the Heat series.
  • Al on the pick and pop.
  • Grant camped out in his corner office.
  • Tatum/point guard pick and roll setting up 4 on 3 with the PG holding the ball off the roll.
Also, in the Heat analysis thread, someone wondered why we don't see Tatum or Brown moving without the ball off multiple screens. Seems to me like this would be excellent option for Jaylen in particular for getting him the ball in space either to drive or to take a jumper. I'm thinking classic Ray Allen or Reggie Miller movement without the ball.
 

koufax32

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I was going to surprise my son, who has had a tough couple of months, with tickets to game 3 or 4. As of yesterday, decent seats are at least $1,500 per ticket. I won't be surprising him with tickets.
I mean, it would definitely be a surprise if you got the tickets then had to sell the house to pay for them.