KD had a lot of Marcus on him as well. In every case, Boston was very physical with him, even through a tightly called game. That will have to eb physically taxing and wearing over a multi-game series. Kyrie and Curry also both must be going to bed tonight with a need for a hefty dose of Ibuprofen; they each took a lot of banging.The thing with Durant is he’ll certainly have games where he’ll shoot better or be a more dominant offensive force, but it’s not like he was missing a lot of easy shots or anything. He got a steady diet of Jaylen, Tatum and Horford guarding him and making life difficult.
117.3 officially, actually just better than the Celtics' 117.5 (the Celtics had 1 more possession than the Nets, hence how they could win with a lower ORtg.)Brooklyn had a 114.4 defensive rating that game. I leave it up to the judgment of the reader to decide whether that's good.
Cool. Thanks for the correction. I just did the math by the box score but I guess the official numbers are more precise, esp. wrt free throws.117.3 officially,
View: https://twitter.com/mzavagno11/status/1515819128258711553?s=21&t=QxphZMeWr4s1e2KDfh1teQThis is right. The Nets defended their asses off all game as myself and @Cellar-Door have been talking about when people say they are an awful defensive team. They absolutely are not. We have a dogfight on our hands here.
Rob Williams would massively tilt the TS%.View: https://twitter.com/mzavagno11/status/1515819128258711553?s=21&t=QxphZMeWr4s1e2KDfh1teQ
View: https://twitter.com/reedwallach/status/1515818785164378121?s=21&t=QxphZMeWr4s1e2KDfh1teQ
They’re not awful but they’re pretty bad. Everyone is focused on Durant’s bad shooting which obviously will not continue but the macro view is that this is the first game all year the Nets lost while shooting >65% true shooting. They shot very well, often on tough looks (lots of long 2’s) and the Celtics shot just okay given the quality of shots they earned. I think the Celtics are going to continue to earn more true shooting attempts with the rebounding and perhaps a turnover edge. If the Celtics can finish better at the rim and hit their open threes going forward they will win 3 more games before they lose 4.
Timelord will abuse the hell out of them on offense. It'll be lob city, with how small that team is.I do think Rob Williams adds a couple of points of margin per game if he returns this series.
Not to mention his putbacks will go in at a much higher rate than Theis'.Timelord will abuse the hell out of them on offense. It'll be lob city, with how small that team is.
This did seem like something significant; especially late in the game when it looked like a lot of Celtics were running out of gas; Brown really exploded to the basket on a series of drives and plays in transition; Brooklyn really lacks the athletes to keep up with him on the defensive end.View: https://twitter.com/mzavagno11/status/1515819128258711553?s=21&t=QxphZMeWr4s1e2KDfh1teQ
View: https://twitter.com/reedwallach/status/1515818785164378121?s=21&t=QxphZMeWr4s1e2KDfh1teQ
View: https://twitter.com/henrysanchez/status/1515851424944603139?s=21&t=QxphZMeWr4s1e2KDfh1teQ
They’re not awful but they’re pretty bad. Everyone is focused on Durant’s bad shooting which obviously will not continue but the macro view is that this is the first game all year the Nets lost while shooting >65% true shooting. They shot very well, often on tough looks (lots of long 2’s) and the Celtics shot just okay given the quality of shots they earned. I think the Celtics are going to continue to earn more true shooting attempts with the rebounding and perhaps a turnover edge. If the Celtics can finish better at the rim and hit their open threes going forward they will win 3 more games before they lose 4.
Another factor is JB couldn’t hit a jumper for 3.5 quarters and he was still a Celtics high plus 10 on 9/19 because of his ability to just blow by all the Nets and get to the rim. As soon as they key in on Tatum they have no answer for JB. If his shots start falling it’ll make a difference too.
My enthusiasm is somewhat offset by Al needing to play 40 minutes due to ineffective play from Theis/Grant and the Celtics still allowing 114 points and winning by only 1.
Tatum after the game said he was actually going to the rim for a rebound.. he probably expected Marcus to shoot too.yeah, they're mediocre. HOWEVER... they are exploitable by size, the Celtics were inconsistent about exploiting it. Every time they go to that 3 guard lineup the Celtics need to drive Tatum or Brown to the rim over and over, if they don't score or get fouled, they set up open shots or putbacks when Drummond has to rotate to protect the rim. One reason the final play going without a TO was smart is that was a nightmare lineup for BKN to defend with even for 12 seconds... KD is good on ball, but get him off-ball on the perimeter and he's less effective, Kyrie is also not good offball and gives up a ton of size, Dragic is a massive negative, Claxton is solid and Brown is okay on-ball but undersized.
Jaylen went right at Dragic forcing Brown to double all the way at the baseline, Kyrie had to cover the pass to White, Claxton was looking to keep Horford from the rim, KD was hedging between Tatum and helping on Jaylen as Brown fell off. Nobody was on Smart. Jaylen made the pass, both Claxton and Brown closed out, leaving a bad spot of Kyrie/KD/Dragic against 4 players... BUT both left their feet, so Dragic stepped up, KD chose Brown, leaving Tatum to cut right behind him, putting Kyrie as the only rim protector (and even he was hedging because White was open for 3.
Part of that is a scramble, part of it is that they have too many small guys on the floor.
This can quickly get into "if the Queen had balls, she'd be the King" territory... but I thought a big moment was the the bad blocking foul called on Smart against Kyrie with a few minutes left in the third. It was clearly a charge, as confirmed by Jackson and Van Gundy but led to him coming out of the game for White right when the team was rolling. In fact, I think it was one of two bad calls on Smart that should have gone the other way. The offense seemed to sputter after that with Smart out and White as PG. Now, maybe Kyrie winds up going bananas either way, but it felt like a small thing that could have kept the C's lead from totally eroding as it did.I think this is possible.. but the C's were also a few good possessions away from winning by ten as well. A lot of things had to go right today for the Nets to get it close late. Hopefully the C's also chill out a bit in game 2 and hit some more wide open shots in the first half.. and also a couple fewer layups.
With the exception of a several games in the bubble playoffs, Tatum had never gone above 42 minutes in a regulation game, regular season or playoffs, until yesterday.Finally, it was worth experimenting with 45 minutes for Tatum, but it was clearly too much. If they could keep him and Brown around 41 minutes each, that's only 7 non-Tatum minutes a game, which is better than having gassed Tatum out there.
Wasn’t just the 45 minutes either, was extremely high effort on both ends the entire time he was out there. Same for Jaylen, just in 5 less minutes.With the exception of a several games in the bubble playoffs, Tatum had never gone above 42 minutes in a regulation game, regular season or playoffs, until yesterday.
He's done it 8x out of his last 18 playoff games.With the exception of a several games in the bubble playoffs, Tatum had never gone above 42 minutes in a regulation game, regular season or playoffs, until yesterday.
My guess is the plan was for Tatum to come out for a minute or 2 at the 10 minute mark of the 4th, but the big Nets run made that difficult as they needed Tatum in the game to settle things down.Wasn’t just the 45 minutes either, was extremely high effort on both ends the entire time he was out there. Same for Jaylen, just in 5 less minutes.
With the workload Tatum has, trying to keep him around 40-41 minutes is for the best.
Yeah I saw a poster describe Tatum as a turnstile on defense in the 4th, I think he gave up two field goals, maybe three if you count the Claxton put back? Kyrie drove past him for two, but as Jackson pointed out in real time, those were on Theis for not rotating over. You’re not going to keep Kyrie infront if you 1 on 1, he’s just too creative.The C's need to pick up Kyrie on-ball pressure much higher. Letting Ky bounce the ball up and step into a 3 (on PP & DW to start Q4) is inexcusable. Having Tatum guard him up high was the right play, JT just needs rotational help at the rim when Kyrie gears up to get downhill. AND by all means foul him hard at the hoop.... Irving Rules please
Minor nitpick, but he was 4-7, missed another jumper at the 4:49 mark.4. Recognize that in the 4th quarter, the Nets aren't stopping Jaylen. In comparison to Tatum's 4th (12 minutes, 1-4, 2-2 at the line, 4 points, 1 turnover), Jaylen was much better after sitting the first 2 minutes. They need to go to him more late.
9:51: enters game
8:45: bad pass turnover
8:43: steal
8:37: missed jumper
8:13: missed jumper
6:31: driving dunk
6:08: defensive rebound
5:56: defensive rebound
5:48: 2-point basket
4:18: defensive rebound
4:05: 3-point basket
3:46: foul
0:38.9: driving layup
Overall in 10 minutes: 9 points on 4-6 shooting (1-1 from three), 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 turnover, 1 foul
With the exception of a several games in the bubble playoffs, Tatum had never gone above 42 minutes in a regulation game, regular season or playoffs, until yesterday.
My wording was bad. By 'regulation game', I meant non-OT game. Tatum goes up over 42 routinely in OT games, rarely otherwise. With one exception: the bubble playoffs. He went over 42 in regulation 2 or 3 times in the Raptors series alone and against other opponents as well. Never before or since, until yesterday. I think the bubble was a weird enough situation that I don;t know as it applies. That said, Tatum's 4th quarter issue yesterday was not necessarily too many minutes - it could have simply been poor play.He's done it 8x out of his last 18 playoff games.
He did it a handful of times in the regular season. He could use 3 minutes off at the ends of Q1/Q3 and be fine (obviously more rest is optimal)
Please no +/- over the course of 1 game
Yeah, Tatum got pretty gassed in some of those bubble games as a result of those minutes, and then clearly had issues down the stretch of some games against Miami.My wording was bad. By 'regulation game', I meant non-OT game. Tatum goes up over 42 routinely in OT games, rarely otherwise. With one exception: the bubble playoffs. He went over 42 in regulation 2 or 3 times in the Raptors series alone and against other opponents as well. Never before or since, until yesterday. I think the bubble was a weird enough situation that I don;t know as it applies. That said, Tatum's 4th quarter issue yesterday was not necessarily too many minutes - it could have simply been poor play.
As to whether Tatum should have had help vs Kyrie, maybe. But was really his job to stand still as a statue as Kyrie went by him? I'm... skeptical.
Every time I watch that spin move it gets better and better. What a move.Tatum after the game said he was actually going to the rim for a rebound.. he probably expected Marcus to shoot too.
This is what I see as well. Nets are a bad defensive team because they have few good defensive players - KD is good, but he has to conserve energy some. Brown is solid, but can only defend so much size. Kyrie is mediocre and regularly lazy. Drummond is useful in the paint but awful if you stretch him out at all. Claxton is a baby TL---he's effective in the paint and reasonably quick, but bites on upfakes, is not all that strong, and is out of position regularly. They tried VERY hard--- to HRB's point----but they are pretty limited as score/stats show.BRK tries hard on defense but they just don't have the length on defense other than KD. Claxton helps a lot but if he can't hit his FTs he might get fouled off the court if the series becomes tight.
I think BRK other than KD played really good on offense and BOS other than Horford didn't play great on offense.
JT mentioned on Reddick's podcast that he was gassed in MIA because the TOR series was the "hardest" series he ever had to play. He didn't come out and say this but to me, he intimated that the Cs would have beat MIA if TOR hadn't hit that last second 3P to make it 2-1 instead of 3-0.Yeah, Tatum got pretty gassed in some of those bubble games as a result of those minutes, and then clearly had issues down the stretch of some games against Miami.
Tatum was trying his best to funnel Kyrie to his help-side defender. If TL was there those shots probably get challenged.My wording was bad. By 'regulation game', I meant non-OT game. Tatum goes up over 42 routinely in OT games, rarely otherwise. With one exception: the bubble playoffs. He went over 42 in regulation 2 or 3 times in the Raptors series alone and against other opponents as well. Never before or since, until yesterday. I think the bubble was a weird enough situation that I don;t know as it applies. That said, Tatum's 4th quarter issue yesterday was not necessarily too many minutes - it could have simply been poor play.
As to whether Tatum should have had help vs Kyrie, maybe. But was really his job to stand still as a statue as Kyrie went by him? I'm... skeptical.
Nice list---a few additional thoughts, some around the impact of size on rotations and plan:Things the Celtics need to do for game 2:
1. Tighten up a lot of mistakes borne of excitement/inaction.
2. Cut Tatum's minutes a bit; 45 and the whole second half may be too much.
3. Keep up the max effort style of play, which favors the younger Celtics.
4. Recognize that in the 4th quarter, the Nets aren't stopping Jaylen. In comparison to Tatum's 4th (12 minutes, 1-4, 2-2 at the line, 4 points, 1 turnover), Jaylen was much better after sitting the first 2 minutes. They need to go to him more late.
9:51: enters game8:45: bad pass turnover8:43: steal8:37: missed jumper8:13: missed jumper6:31: driving dunk6:08: defensive rebound5:56: defensive rebound5:48: 2-point basket4:18: defensive rebound4:05: 3-point basket3:46: foul0:38.9: driving layupOverall in 10 minutes: 9 points on 4-6 shooting (1-1 from three), 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 turnover, 1 foul5. Better work from Theis and Grant. Theis shot 1-6 in 20 minutes, scoring 4 point, getting 6 rebounds, and picking up 4 fouls. His defensive rotations were not great. Grant had 7 points on 3-7 shooting, 2 rebounds, an assist, and a block in 21 minutes, but he missed all four of his threes. On the theory that Al is not going to be the same level of beast he was in game 1, the Celtics need more here, from one or both of Theis and Grant.
6. More minutes for Derrick White. White's numbers weren't great, but he was part of the closing lineup that won it. 28 minutes, 3 of 8 from the field, 1 of 4 from 3, 7 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 turnovers.
It might be too soon for this change, but maybe Ime needs to think about a less Big-centric offense than while KD is out. As a second big, Theis struggled some with his defensive rotations. And 41 minutes is too many for Al to do each and every game. With the emegence of Rob and the strong play from Al and Grant, the Celtics have not used a lot of the Smart-White-Brown-Tatum-Big lineup that we all expected when White arrived, but that is the lineup Ime used to close out game 1, and White is clearly a better player than Grant and Theis.
So, one thing Ime could do is this: start Grant at the 4, and make Theis Al's backup. When Grant is not on the floor, play smaller with Tatum at the 4, Brown at 3, White in the lineup.
By remaining absolutely still, both feet planted firmly on the court, in a manner that, oh, Guershon Yabuslele could have done just as well? I don’t buy it. I’ll certainly buy that he was supposed to have help there, but not that he was supposed to impersonate a traffic cone.Tatum was trying his best to funnel Kyrie to his help-side defender. If TL was there those shots probably get challenged.
The issue here is not some theoretical ideal minute count. It is that 2 things happened: One, Ime’s use of Tatum was not merely “aggressive” but unprecedentedly so; two, for most of that quarter Tatum played poorly.IME is aggressive with player minutes, we saw it all season. Plus Tatum is a more important cog to this team. He'll play a lot, especially in games 1-4 with the amount of rest they are getting. We'd all like to see ~40mpg with regular breaks BUT as we saw yesterday if it's a close game his Peloton is getting as much use as my neighbors' wives.
Agreed he did look traffic cone-ish, I'd still go with JT as the initial defender instead of PP or White.By remaining absolutely still, both feet planted firmly on the court, in a manner that, oh, Guershon Yabuslele could have done just as well? I don’t buy it. I’ll certainly buy that he was supposed to have help there, but not that he was supposed to impersonate a traffic cone.
The issue here is not some theoretical ideal minute count. It is that 2 things happened: One, Ime’s use of Tatum was not merely “aggressive” but unprecedentedly so; two, for most of that quarter Tatum played poorly.
Nothing about Tatum being the Celtics best player means that it’s a good idea to use him in ways that undermine his value.
That said, it is only speculation that he was gassed. Maybe he was fine and his poor play had other root causes.
Tatum picked up his 7th assist midway through the second quarter and finished with only 8. He had 27 points after three and finished with only 31. He was a nonentity for most of the 4th quarter. If that becomes a trend, rather than a one-off, that’s a problem.
KD may not be that bad again, but I highly doubt Kyrie's 18-30 is going to be oft-repeated in this series. They scored 62 collectively, which I think should be the expectation/average for them (though of course they may explode for more in a single game).On the negative side, the Nets very nearly won despite KD having a subpar game, and while getting absolutely owned on the glass. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where Brooklyn wins some games here.
Nice post.Steve Jones Jr (worth a follow btw for general NBA) is breaking down some of what both teams are doing on this thread:
View: https://twitter.com/stevejones20/status/1516046019418546177
Jones was a video guy w/ the Grizz, then player development and an assistant coach for a couple years with the Nets in the Hollins era.
Two takeaways for me. The Nets are going to let Grant take 3s, especially at the top of the key. The Celtics don't care about Brown's 40% this year from 3 either, they are putting Horford on him and hedging way off the handoffs/picks, if he wants to take 3s up the arc, they'll let him.
Very much both teams saying "if this guy his 4+ threes on us so be it"
Everyone seems to be predicting that Simmons is going to go back to being the player he was.. until I see it on the court I’m not buying it. I don’t fully understand why he’s been out for so long.. if it’s a back injury.. why will it suddenly go away and not limit him the rest of his career? If it’s mental.. why would he suddenly be ok? Why would those issues not pop back up again?It's a "next year" thing because even if he returns it's going to be limited in minutes/conditioning/integration but Simmons is a huge addition to the Nets roster---adding a shut-down wing defender with some size and adding another credible ballhandler (and one who can help Kyrie be an off the ball scorer and creator) is gigantic. He's nto a great rebounder, but he's better than what they have for sure. We'll see what he is next year, and how quickly KD declines (or doesn't) but it'll be a fun matchup for a couple years here...
Exactly right on Kyrie/KD. KD was below his norm, Kyrie was above his norm. You expect Kyrie to go off and get 35-40 in one of the games, and you expect the Nets to win that game. It's obviously huge that the Celtics withstood that barrage and shut him down when it most mattered. But between the two of them this is what we should expect every game; usually it will be KD taking over.KD may not be that bad again, but I highly doubt Kyrie's 18-30 is going to be oft-repeated in this series. They scored 62 collectively, which I think should be the expectation/average for them (though of course they may explode for more in a single game).
The rebounding piece the Nets won't be able to counter for reasons mentioned above. They don't have the size to match up with Boston on the glass and their best rebounder (Drummond) is awful at defending in space.
The Nets will win some games, but if these are the negatives from a BOS perspective, I'm happy because they should be the norm for the series.
Nobody here knows what sort of run Simmons can give Brooklyn if he even comes back. However he doesn't have to do anything but defend to be effective in these games. Imagine Sunday's game but with the Nets having another long player who can - in theory given his layoff- slow down one or both Tatum or Brown.Everyone seems to be predicting that Simmons is going to go back to being the player he was.. until I see it on the court I’m not buying it. I don’t fully understand why he’s been out for so long.. if it’s a back injury.. why will it suddenly go away and not limit him the rest of his career? If it’s mental.. why would he suddenly be ok? Why would those issues not pop back up again?
what has people absolutely convinced that Ben Simmons is still ‘Ben Simmons’?
was It just Philly? Then why hasn’t he played in Bklyn? What am I missing?
Honestly his rebounding might help as much as his defense if he came back, those Brown/KD/Kyrie/Dragic and Brown/Kyrie/Mills/Dragic lineups got obliteratedNobody here knows what sort of run Simmons can give Brooklyn if he even comes back. However he doesn't have to do anything but defend to be effective in these games. Imagine Sunday's game but with the Nets having another long player who can - in theory given his layoff- slow down one or both Tatum or Brown.
Frankly, if Simmons is at all ready, the Nets almost have to try him for a few minutes just to see if it will work.
As others noted, I definitely have ZERO idea what he is today or will be next year. But even a materially worse version of Simmons is an upgrade for this roster, and in ways that they need help. Your question---what is his deal now? is of course a reasonable one we all need to keep in mindEveryone seems to be predicting that Simmons is going to go back to being the player he was.. until I see it on the court I’m not buying it. I don’t fully understand why he’s been out for so long.. if it’s a back injury.. why will it suddenly go away and not limit him the rest of his career? If it’s mental.. why would he suddenly be ok? Why would those issues not pop back up again?
what has people absolutely convinced that Ben Simmons is still ‘Ben Simmons’?
was It just Philly? Then why hasn’t he played in Bklyn? What am I missing?
Some more information in what I hope to be a table below. White did about the same job as JB when one factors in time of possession. interesting that GW had the 5th most time guarding KI and held him to 0 points and 7 team points in the time GW was guarding KI. I'm sure the Cs has this filed for the coming games.Tatum defended Durant for 38 possessions (Jaylen, Al, and Smart combined for 27 possessions on KD). In those 38 possessions, Durant had 4 points on 2-6 shooting, with 4 turnovers and a blocked shot. No assists for KD either, since Tatum was able to check him without much help. Obviously KD was just missing shots he usually hits, too.
Kyrie went 3-4 against Tatum, 3-3 against Jaylen, and 3-5 against Theis.
MIN |
PARTIAL |
PTS |
TEAM |
FGM |
FGA |
FG% |
3PM |
3PA | |
JB |
4:00 |
20.10 |
6 |
24 |
3 |
3 |
100 |
0 |
0 |
Al |
0:53 |
6.50 |
2 |
14 |
1 |
2 |
50.0 |
0 |
0 |
PP |
0:08 |
0.60 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
100 |
1 |
1 |
Smart |
5:48 |
26.50 |
10 |
24 |
2 |
5 |
40.0 |
2 |
4 |
JT |
1:56 |
10.20 |
6 |
23 |
3 |
4 |
75.0 |
0 |
1 |
DT |
0:44 |
4.30 |
11 |
11 |
3 |
5 |
60.0 |
2 |
3 |
White |
2:01 |
9.30 |
3 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
50.0 |
1 |
1 |
GW |
1:22 |
6.40 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
0.0 |
0 |
1 |
Great line (and point).it's a close game his Peloton is getting as much use as my neighbors' wives.