Yes... It does.
To a certain extent it explains the entire season. When they think they play well, when they don't, they suck.
Celtics vs. Heat, Round 3 Discussion
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To a certain extent it explains the entire season. When they think they play well, when they don't, they suck.
The Celtics hunted Strus like crazy in the 1H. The problem was that our lack of ball handlers made it a very sloppy endeavor to get our guys the ball in the right spots. This is why I was calling for more controlled iso in the 1H to manage this better while reducing turnover risk.
I don't know if the Cs are stupider and sloppier. As Karalis said on his podcast last night, MIA plays super aggressive defense and take a bunch of fouls due to slapping at the ball and being physical. My instincts tell me that's a high variance approach for a playoff series. Sometimes, MIA will get there early and get a near-record in steals; other times, they will get there late and give up 32 FTs.
I would love to see if BOS countered this by dribbling less last night than G3.
Oladipo can score for himself sometimes but the one thing he hasn't shown he can do right now is create for others. Herro can run the PnR and get others involved. He's also a tough shot-maker so it's okay to have the ball in his hands with the shot clock winding down. He was missed badly by MIA last night.
This is true, and Miami is lucky to have a player like Oladipo who can nominally fill those shoes, but on the balance you'd rather be facing Oladipo than Herro (who can carry the Heat offense for stretches). As @HomeRunBaker points out, hunting can also be erratic, especially for a team like the Celtics who are their own worst enemy on occasion.
I think part of the problem last night was when the Celtics do hunt mismatches, the Heat are quick to double and that has led to open three pointers during the series for people like Grant, White, Smart and Horford. Last night they shot a bad percentage on some pretty good looks; which stalled the offense a bit.
A large part of this is depth and matchups. Miami has a lot of redundant guys that can keep doing what their starters do. The Celtics have some pretty solid players for specific matchups that are liabilities in others (e.g. Theis in this series). The Heat also have better “deep depth” which is why their scrubs mostly beat our scrubs.
It's not just busy hands though. The Cs make a lot of careless passes. If we end up with Cs-GS we might have the most sloppy passes to no one ever in a finals.
It did seem like they took it personally that it was his 3 that killed the Game 3 comeback attempt. Impressively bad performance all around last night. Didn't record a box score stat, 0-7 from the field and 0-4 from 3, and managed to pick up 3 fouls in those 15 minutes.
MIA is loading up against JT and JB - trying to be super physical; sending a second guy; and also trying to play the obvious passing lanes. JB and JT got sped up on G3. I thought I heard on the Cs radio last night (I listened to part of the game) that JB also mentioned that fatigue was a factor in throwing the ball away so much.
Not necessarily an excuse but hopefully they now understand it and have counters. JT seemed to last night at least. JB didn't turn the ball over as much but had a lousy shooting game so maybe he's still a work in progress.
fake edit: if someone told us pre-game that JB would be 5-20 and the Cs would be 8-34 from 3P, we'd all would have scurried away to put money on MIA to win. 32 FTs is the flip side of MIA's defense.
Not necessarily an excuse but hopefully they now understand it and have counters. JT seemed to last night at least. JB didn't turn the ball over as much but had a lousy shooting game so maybe he's still a work in progress.
fake edit: if someone told us pre-game that JB would be 5-20 and the Cs would be 8-34 from 3P, we'd all would have scurried away to put money on MIA to win. 32 FTs is the flip side of MIA's defense.
I don’t post here much at all, but this is the weirdest fucking playoff series I can remember. It’s like an old 90s Heat/Knicks rock fight occasionally interrupted by weird injuries and spurts of Annie Oakley shooting prowess.
Miami playing Butler/Bam and having two guys that don't stretch you out to the three point line allows the Celtics to play TimeLord and Horford at the same time with basically zero downside; and those guys are annihilating the Heat at the rim. The Celtics had Time Lord on Butler last night and TL can struggle sometimes if a guy is a shooting threat and has good burst to get by him; Butler isn't an outside threat and lacks burst due to his knee injury, so he was just swallowed.
On the radio pre-game, Ime said exactly that to Grande. Something like, "when we drive into the lane we have to dish a dribble or three earlier."
After seeing TL limping at the end of his run last night, not sure he’s playing Game 5. Hope Smart is back.
Having at least one of those guys each game would be a huge plus for the rest of the series. Would be fine if they alternate, tbh.
If they’re short both, all of a sudden you’re seeing a lot more of Nesmith and Theis in a series deciding game. No thanks!
Having at least one of those guys each game would be a huge plus for the rest of the series. Would be fine if they alternate, tbh.
If they’re short both, all of a sudden you’re seeing a lot more of Nesmith and Theis in a series deciding game. No thanks!
In post-game press conference, Rob says knee feels good. Obviously, if there's a bunch of swelling, his availability becomes much more doubtful but he didn't seem worried about playing in G5.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8dfEbx8GD8
If the last 2 games are any indication, if the C"s control the ball, the Heat stand 0 chance.
38 to 14 advantage in FT. Tatum alone had 16, 2 more than the whole Miami team. 26 personal fouls to 15.
C's also had 11 blocks, so TL's presence was definitely felt.
Miami went 14-36, 38.9% from 3.
Boston went 8-34, 23.5% from 3.
That usually doesn't lend itself to 20 point wins. Of course, Miami was 16-54 from 2, 29.6%. C's were 23-44, 52.3%
Both teams had 9 TO, C's had 21 assists on 31 baskets, Miami had 22 assists on 30. C's grabbed 14 rebounds on 47 missed shots, Miami managed 10 on 60.
Game 4: 38 to 14 FTA advantage
Game 3: 30 to 14
Game 2: 23 to 22
Game 1: 32 to 34 disadvantage.
So on the road, they are -1 at the line. At home, they are +40.
I'm not even really sure how Miami is in this series. 2 really bad quarters. The C's are just a better team. If Miami continues to get no FT edge at home, it's just a matter of not turning the ball over. I don't even think the C's have to shoot particularly well.
38 to 14 advantage in FT. Tatum alone had 16, 2 more than the whole Miami team. 26 personal fouls to 15.
C's also had 11 blocks, so TL's presence was definitely felt.
Miami went 14-36, 38.9% from 3.
Boston went 8-34, 23.5% from 3.
That usually doesn't lend itself to 20 point wins. Of course, Miami was 16-54 from 2, 29.6%. C's were 23-44, 52.3%
Both teams had 9 TO, C's had 21 assists on 31 baskets, Miami had 22 assists on 30. C's grabbed 14 rebounds on 47 missed shots, Miami managed 10 on 60.
Game 4: 38 to 14 FTA advantage
Game 3: 30 to 14
Game 2: 23 to 22
Game 1: 32 to 34 disadvantage.
So on the road, they are -1 at the line. At home, they are +40.
I'm not even really sure how Miami is in this series. 2 really bad quarters. The C's are just a better team. If Miami continues to get no FT edge at home, it's just a matter of not turning the ball over. I don't even think the C's have to shoot particularly well.
For the playoffs, C's are at .456/.368/.808
Tatum .367 on 8.7 3PA
Brown .381 on 6.5
Smart .358 on 6.8
Grant .419 on 4.9
Big Al .492 on 4.2
PP .387 on 3.7
White .217 on 3.3
Tatum .367 on 8.7 3PA
Brown .381 on 6.5
Smart .358 on 6.8
Grant .419 on 4.9
Big Al .492 on 4.2
PP .387 on 3.7
White .217 on 3.3
Agree with these points. Protect the ball. Draw fouls, get to the line, and stall MIA’s fast break. Focus on the defensive boards and minimize 2d chance points. This is how MIA scores. They’re not going to outshoot us In a half court match-up.
As long as Time Lord can play 25-30 minutes I’m confident. If Smart can play I’m looking at that as a bonus. Without Williams, I’m not confident at all about game 5. He’s still undervalued even here on this site. He’s a huge difference maker on multiple levels. Changes everything.
It is noticeable that Bam is aware of him. Kinda funny to me, but some extreme vertical guys like Bam, are hyper worried about being blocked. Guys like that may go years without ever getting blocked on the way up. So when it happens it can bother them more. Bam is a bit weird, I always think he is lefthanded because he rarely turns to his RH and posts up like a lefty. Without TL he just went off, then at times I could see him check if Rob was around then kick it out.
I don't even think you need that many minutes from TL. He played 19 minutes last night, but the game was effectively over after his first quarter run. From where I was sitting, you could smell the fear in the Miami offense when they tried to bring the ball into the paint. Just rushing everything, or coming to a stop and kicking it out anytime he was in the area.
Yes, you just need him the beginnings of each half to set the tone, and insert him into the lineup if they start to gain some confidence in the paint. You can just see the mental fatigue he causes entire offenses by his mere presence. Hell, you had one of the Nets players talking about it before they ever even played a game in the series.
I also appreciate how TL is not biting on Butler's up fakes, and then Jimmy is 6 feet from the basket without his dribble and surrounded by Celtics.
I’d like to see Smart or TL on the floor for all of Jimmy’s minutes. If we can make this happen all we need is some focus with the series finish line in sight and we will win tomorrow night.
to my eyes, after he had that monster dunk on the first of those lobs is when he started limping.
This is so true. With TL the Celts look like they can sweep through not just the Mavs but as a legit fave vs GS. Without him they're a really good team who are 50/50 w/ the Heat and maybe a bit less than that vs the Warriors.
Marcus and TL both listed as questionable for tomorrow, so nothing concrete yet. Might be after 5 or 6 tomorrow when we get official word one way or another.
It seems like the lob threat for Rob Williams makes a huge difference, even if it's just 3-4 buckets a game.
3 - 4 lob scores from Rob would be an outlier, I think. You convert maybe 2 in a good game and the difference is more in the stretch it puts on the defense than in actual executions.
He had 160 dunks in 60 games this year, a lot of those are on putbacks or dropoffs. So I think my estimate makes sense.
Speculation time:
2 Heat got Covid and can’t travel?
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/bigjimmurray/status/1529229871360135168?s=10&t=W5NMmRxlqSVdk-aTYJe7bg
2 Heat got Covid and can’t travel?
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/bigjimmurray/status/1529229871360135168?s=10&t=W5NMmRxlqSVdk-aTYJe7bg
Murray has covid and doesn’t like the heat? This response is gold.
View: https://twitter.com/thechrismarley/status/1529238086655389696?s=21&t=fCLhL0qm54KoNejcJLqerg
What a doofus. If he had a real scoop, he'd come right out and say it rather than leaving people guessing. He's probably either talking about himself or he just heard a rumor, so he decided to code it in cuneiform so that if it turns out to be false, he doesn't get slammed.
So, if this exchange had happened at the press conference after Game 4, it would have been accurate?
"I shot." - The Sheriff
"I did not shoot." - The Deputy
I had to open the link to learn who this person is. Laughable that a regional radio host would have an NBA scoop before Woj or Shams.
I think this is right. He gets one or two opportunities early, then the defense guards it. And maybe they relax later and he gets another one late. Even if he misses the shot early on, it causes the defense to react.
I saw a stat that Rod Carew was like a. 800 hitter on bunts. But the real story is all the hits he got because the 3b was always in.
Rob is that good. You have to guard the lob, so the defence changes
It’s also an incredible safety valve (or “break class in case of emergency”) in general but especially against the Heat.
if anyone drives to the lane and gets in trouble, you can just throw it up high in the general direction of the hoop and it’s likely that TimeLord will either dunk it or come down with it
Key questions today:
1. Who is healthy? Smart and Rob are questionable for Boston, Butler, Herro, Lowry all playing through things for Miami. Which team is being ground down in this series of attrition?
2. Can the Celtics protect the ball? If they turn it over repeatedly as in game 3, they probably lose.
3. Can the Celtics limit Miami's transition offense? Part of this is limiting live-ball turnovers; another part of it is just getting back on D, after both makes and misses.
4. Can Miami crack open Boston's heretofore excellent halfcourt defense? Obviously this gets eaiser for Miami if Boston is undermandded and especially without Rob. Zach Lowe in his column today noted that Boston switched to drop coverage on pick and rolls involving Bam or Tucker and noted some ways Miami could try to exploit that.
5. I stand by my "glass jaw" comment about the Celtics. When Miami connects with a (metaphorical) punch, it takes the Celtics time to regroup. Miami oed a lot of its success to two big quarters (Q3 Game 1; Q1 Game 3). Miami will surely try to connext on on tonight - will they? If they do, ho long will it take the Celtics to regroup?
I think the Celtics are the better team and the outcome of this game will be more in their control. Protect the ball, get back on D, and take the punch, and the Celtics win. Of course, just because it is in their control doesn't mean they will do it.
Miami, for its part, needs to solve the Boston halfcourt defense if it cannot run.
Of course, personnel will ne a huge issue - both who is available and who is healthy enough to play well.
1. Who is healthy? Smart and Rob are questionable for Boston, Butler, Herro, Lowry all playing through things for Miami. Which team is being ground down in this series of attrition?
2. Can the Celtics protect the ball? If they turn it over repeatedly as in game 3, they probably lose.
3. Can the Celtics limit Miami's transition offense? Part of this is limiting live-ball turnovers; another part of it is just getting back on D, after both makes and misses.
4. Can Miami crack open Boston's heretofore excellent halfcourt defense? Obviously this gets eaiser for Miami if Boston is undermandded and especially without Rob. Zach Lowe in his column today noted that Boston switched to drop coverage on pick and rolls involving Bam or Tucker and noted some ways Miami could try to exploit that.
5. I stand by my "glass jaw" comment about the Celtics. When Miami connects with a (metaphorical) punch, it takes the Celtics time to regroup. Miami oed a lot of its success to two big quarters (Q3 Game 1; Q1 Game 3). Miami will surely try to connext on on tonight - will they? If they do, ho long will it take the Celtics to regroup?
I think the Celtics are the better team and the outcome of this game will be more in their control. Protect the ball, get back on D, and take the punch, and the Celtics win. Of course, just because it is in their control doesn't mean they will do it.
Miami, for its part, needs to solve the Boston halfcourt defense if it cannot run.
Of course, personnel will ne a huge issue - both who is available and who is healthy enough to play well.
But sometimes a lob to Rob yields a basket without a dunk. The lob from Al in G4 was not a great pass and converting it was really a thing of beauty. Rob has pretty incredible touch on those balls.
Yes, but I'd prefer passes that allow him to land on two legs at this point. Maybe tell him to let the high passes go...
If the C's have a glass jaw, how do you describe the Heat? They just gave up entirely last game.
I haven't been able to find anything on Herro's status that is less than 18 hours old. If he doesn't play, Miami will not be able to space the floor at all.
The Heat did not have shootaround this morning which is rather odd. So no updates on their injuries/possible Covid situation.
Honestly, I think Udoka needs to wear the blame for some of this. He’s been mostly good this postseason, but seems to have gotten off easy for the bad parts.
I’m not talking about the more abstract “glass jaw” stuff, but specifically the propensity to lose quarters 40-16 and the fact that the team has played badly in the opening game of each series (extenuating circumstances no withstanding).