Celtics vs. Heat, Round 3 Discussion

Who you got?


  • Total voters
    333
  • Poll closed .

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,101
I am 100% convinced that this Celtics team would easily sweep the bubble Celtics with an absent Hayward and hobbling Kemba, and it wouldn't be particularly close either.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
The JAYs should continue to get better as they age, especially Tatum as he adds more muscle to his learning machine approach.

TL, Grant, PP will continue to improve as they earn minutes, fine-tune their roles and be better versions of themselves.

Horford can probably give them another 2yrs of quality role play, which he is basically what he is now... a role player. He's a long, switchy defense-first 4. This isn't to diminish what Al does, just that the C's can develop/find someone (plus a combo of Grant/Tatum/TL improvement) that will lessen Horford exit pain.

The 4-5yr run has started a year early and that credit needs to go to IME/Brad IMO
This Celtics team absolutely could win the title this year, but they don't HAVE to win the title this year. Because this young core played big playoff games so early in their career, it can kind of give off the impression that the window is starting to wane with this core, but realistically the window has just begun, at least looking at our best players. Tatum is probably scraping close to his ceiling as an NBA player, but think about how much better guys like Durant and LeBron were in their late-20s than when they were 23/24. Jaylen Brown has improved every single season.

TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.

In regards to Al, I've said before that I don't like the idea of paying for a center unless it is an Jokic/Embiid class of player. It seems like there are so many relatively cheap and fungible centers around that you can use when your team is going to live or die on the success of its perimeter players. For Horford, he has earned every single cent of his $27 million this season.
 

dhellers

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2005
4,209
Silver Spring, Maryland
To pile on, what is happening with Bam? I get that the Celtics are a tough matchup for him on offense, and that explains a bit of why he's gone from a 19 PPG scorer in the regular season to what he's doing now. But Miami used to be so dynamic running their offense through him, having him bring the ball up the floor, and basically using him like Draymond. Now, he barely touches the ball on offense, and the Miami offense is so much more predictable as a result. Oladipo or Vincent bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, and Butler is their only reliable scorer, only he can't really shoot from three.

This isn't just about this series; he's gone from averaging over 5 assists a game the past two seasons to 3.4 this year. Is it the Kyle Lowry affect? And if so, why are they still playing that way with Lowry out?

I have so much respect for Spo that I can't help but think it's a physical thing with Bam rather than a tactical thing.
The long history of the Grant WIlliams/ Bam Adebayo rivarly might also help.

https://theathletic.com/2084063/2020/09/22/grant-williams-bam-adebayo-high-school-rivals-nba/

According to one of the announcers (maybe Sean Grande) at a point in the game where Bam was pushing TL around, Grant called out to the bench if he should start covering Bam.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
This Celtics team absolutely could win the title this year, but they don't HAVE to win the title this year. Because this young core played big playoff games so early in their career, it can kind of give off the impression that the window is starting to wane with this core, but realistically the window has just begun, at least looking at our best players. Tatum is probably scraping close to his ceiling as an NBA player, but think about how much better guys like Durant and LeBron were in their late-20s than when they were 23/24. Jaylen Brown has improved every single season.

TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.

In regards to Al, I've said before that I don't like the idea of paying for a center unless it is an Jokic/Embiid class of player. It seems like there are so many relatively cheap and fungible centers around that you can use when your team is going to live or die on the success of its perimeter players. For Horford, he has earned every single cent of his $27 million this season.
This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,205
Lynn
So far in the playoffs

Tatum 28/6/6 on a 59% TS.
Jaylen 23/7/4 on a 59% TS.
Smart 16/4/7 on a 54% TS.
Al 13/8/3 on a 67% TS.
Grant 11/4 on a 62% TS.

And that doesn’t even take the defense into account. Dudes are BRINGING it.
 
Last edited:

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,070
Hingham, MA
This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
I mean this is true because they are 3 wins away from the Finals / 7 wins away from the title, but who is realistically going to have a better chance in the next 5 years?

Philly has major issues
Brooklyn has major issues
Milwaukee has Giannis but Middleton turns 31 this summer and the rest of their roster is meh
Miami the Celts are already better than, and are old

Phoenix is a pretender and CP3 is old
Dallas has Luka but is otherwise meh
Golden State still has a nice core and tons of experience but is getting old (Curry is 34, Dray and Klay are 32)

There is real potential here for multiple Finals appearances and banners over the next five years.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
538 had the Celts at 70% to win the series coming in; 61% after the game 1 loss; and now 81% after the game 2 win. Currently at 68% to win the title which is insane.
I feel it’s pretty accurate. Miami cannot create offensively against our defense with Smart in the game to prevent “G1 Jimmy” from getting to the rim at will. For them to win a game against us at full strength they will need one of those 9 three-pointer games from Strus, Duncan, or Vincent. The Heat are a real good team but NBA PLayoffs are about matchups and we are a nightmare for them on one end while they don’t have answers for us on the other.

Re: Championship. I’m not a believer in the Warriors and think our second worst matchup in these playoffs behind the Bucks would be the Mavs.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
Carpe Diem. Al is a huge part of their success right now, and I think the likelihood that he is playing at the same level even next year is low. Also, as everyone knows in sports, it's all about injuries. The law of averages would say that one of the Celtics core will have a major injury over the next few years. That stuff just happens.

On a different topic, it looked like on a few possessions last night Grant was playing defense like he was guarding Giannis and daring Heat players to shoot threes. It seemed like an odd strategy given that few players (especially guards in the NBA) are as bad at 3PA as Giannis.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I mean this is true because they are 3 wins away from the Finals / 7 wins away from the title, but who is realistically going to have a better chance in the next 5 years?

Philly has major issues
Brooklyn has major issues
Milwaukee has Giannis but Middleton turns 31 this summer and the rest of their roster is meh
Miami the Celts are already better than, and are old

Phoenix is a pretender and CP3 is old
Dallas has Luka but is otherwise meh
Golden State still has a nice core and tons of experience but is getting old (Curry is 34, Dray and Klay are 32)

There is real potential here for multiple Finals appearances and banners over the next five years.
The NBA is a league full of turnover. Philly could look completely different in 2022/23. Dallas could acquire a legit 2nd star. Memphis is definitely on the up, too.

The future is no place to place your better days. Or whatever the quote is.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,996
Newton
Last night was the first game that I thought Rob looked like Rob since the injury. Blocks, lobs, rebounds. If it wasn’t a dominant performance, it was at least a pretty good one and while I know some of that may be that Giannis was a terrible matchup for him, he seems to be rounding into form at just the right time.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,249
TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.
TLs ball skills are really underrated. For a guy with limited offensive skills, the fact that he almost never gums up the offense is pretty remarkable., even though they dont shy away from giving him the ball up high or on the weave.
 

ManicCompression

Member
SoSH Member
May 14, 2015
1,352
This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
Yeah, please let's not start thinking that this is going to be the norm going forward. The same attitude has felled OKC and many other "young teams" who were always looking at the two birds in the bush instead of the one in hand. Injuries, free agency, other teams young players exploding will get in the way more often than not (look at Milwaukee with Middleton this year, or Brooklyn with Kyrie and Harden last year). This is the opportunity, right now, and neither fans nor the team should expect that this is going to happen again. Tatum is great - he is not Jordan or Lebron.
 

Mooch

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,494
Yeah, please let's not start thinking that this is going to be the norm going forward. The same attitude has felled OKC and many other "young teams" who were always looking at the two birds in the bush instead of the one in hand. Injuries, free agency, other teams young players exploding will get in the way more often than not (look at Milwaukee with Middleton this year, or Brooklyn with Kyrie and Harden last year). This is the opportunity, right now, and neither fans nor the team should expect that this is going to happen again. Tatum is great - he is not Jordan or Lebron.
Yet.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,127
Santa Monica
Tatum is probably scraping close to his ceiling as an NBA player, but think about how much better guys like Durant and LeBron were in their late-20s than when they were 23/24. Jaylen Brown has improved every single season.
Agree with most of your assessments except for the bolded.

A more mature/stronger Tatum improves a lot on both sides of the floor, a 40% 3pt shooter ups his gravity/TS% & a better distributor makes those around him better when he's doubled. Most importantly Tatum has a great infrastructure, off-season work ethic, and desire to be the best. Not every great player (ie Shaq) can say that, he's extremely focused.

The C's are very levered to Tatum and he will continue to have the greatest impact on winning%.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Agree with most of your assessments except for the bolded.

A more mature/stronger Tatum improves a lot on both sides of the floor, a 40% 3pt shooter ups his gravity/TS% & a better distributor makes those around him better when he's doubled. Most importantly Tatum has a great infrastructure, off-season work ethic, and desire to be the best. Not every great player (ie Shaq) can say that, he's very focused

The C's are very levered to Tatum and he will continue to have the greatest impact on winning%.
I don't think we are disagreeing; it's more of just the perspective on how we see the distance between Tatum today and Tatum in a few seasons if it all goes well. Let's say Tatum's ceiling is like, prime Kevin Durant. I'd argue that he is like, 90% there at the moment; and while he is likely to certainly improve over the next few seasons, we can already envision what the best version of Tatum looks like (as opposed to say, TimeLord who is still a bit of a mystery).
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I don't think we are disagreeing; it's more of just the perspective on how we see the distance between Tatum today and Tatum in a few seasons if it all goes well. Let's say Tatum's ceiling is like, prime Kevin Durant. I'd argue that he is like, 90% there at the moment; and while he is likely to certainly improve over the next few seasons, we can already envision what the best version of Tatum looks like (as opposed to say, TimeLord who is still a bit of a mystery).
Is it? TL is 5 months older than Jayson Tatum. I'd guess it's incremental growth from here on out.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,308
I agree--Vincent isn't bad at all. But he also doesn't create any gravity- he's scoring because he's getting it after several rotations. What I observe is Miami needs more guys who demand attention, and they simply don't have enough of them. So they only have three ways to manufacture that pressure----Bam playing better and more actively on offense (possible but absent bad matchups I'm not sure he is that guy); Herro heating up (again, possible); and spreading the court more because Robinson/Strus are really hitting and forcing Celts to cover deep and create space for Herro/Bam/Butler and maybe Oladipo. I am not saying that'll work---not sure they can generate that shooting or that Celts adjustments will open up enough room, they just don't need to double against Miami--I'm saying that's the list Spo realistically can think through to try.
The most attention Robinson and Oladipo create in 2022 is every Celtics player salivating the second they step on the court.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,949
So far in the playoffs

Tatum 28/6/6 on a 59% TS.
Jaylen 23/7/4 on a 59% TS.
Smart 16/4/7 on a 54% TS.
Al 13/8/3 on a 67% TS.
Grant 11/4 on a 62% TS.

And that doesn’t even take the defense into account. Dudes are BRINGING it.
Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,480
Melrose, MA
The Celtics struggle when teams are able to throw a wrench into the machinery. If I were Spoelstra, I'd be thinking about how to achieve that.
That first sentence likely applies to most teams, but as to your second sentence . . . I was interested (and perhaps a bit wary) of how this version of the Celtics would respond to the Miami zone that killed them in the bubble. Well, Miami pulled it out last night and the Celtics crushed it. Two plays of note I recall:
  • one was where Al got the ball in the middle of the zone, pretty much right at the FT line, which is supposed to be the weak part of the zone. No Heat came to challenge him, all staying out on the perimeter shooters. So Al simply hit what was probably the closest thing to a free throw that one can have in the live action of a game.
  • the other was where they swung the ball to Jaylen at the right break, but he caught it on the move and slashed right thru the zone like butter.
I think the Celtics struggle more than most when they get (or are gotten) off their game. I think they place high on the "No team that really truly is this fucking good should ever look so fucking terrible, but somehow they do" list. Usually when a team has big epic lapses it is because they aren't actually that good and their success is of the smoke-and-mirrors variety. That's not the Celtics - they are that good and it usually shows on the court.

As to the zone, I think the key differences between the Bubble C's and this team are Al Horford (who wasn't there) and Jayson Tatum (who is a lot better now, particularly when it comes to passing). Either Horford or Tatum can get the ball in the middle of the zone defense and just pick teams apart.
Agree, but it's hard to find wrenches when
- Tatum is handling blitzes and extra shading with ease
- the zone has gotten annihilated
- the Heat don't have any offensive wrinkles left beyond "score even more, Jimmy"
I would try full court pressure, since that worked for Milwaukee at times. Does Spoelstra have wrinkles to the zone? Can they fake blitz Tatum and recover to their guys? I don't know. Probably Lowry coming back and being immediately very good and Bam reverting more to his bubble self are the keys.
I am 100% convinced that this Celtics team would easily sweep the bubble Celtics with an absent Hayward and hobbling Kemba, and it wouldn't be particularly close either.
Tatum, Brown, Smart, Grant, and Rob are better now than they were then. We have Horford now and didn't then. Kemba and Hayward played a lot of injury-limited minutes. We have White and Pritchard; they had Wanamaker.
TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.
This series has shown some key areas where Rob can improve. When he gets that ball around the basket with a defender there, he needs to get up there strong and without getting his pocket picked. Obviously, even a good post player (Rob is more of a non-post player) will struggle if defended well, but Rob needs to be able to overpower guys who are just "there" as opposed to playing great D.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,480
Melrose, MA
In these playoffs, Butler is avergaging 37.3 minutes, Bam 32.2, and Herro 27.2. Lowry when playing was averaging 28.8.

Does Miami just need to step all those guy up to 38-40?

If you play Herro that much is he exposed as a poor defender (or at least one the Celtics can attack)?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
The most attention Robinson and Oladipo create in 2022 is every Celtics player salivating the second they step on the court.
You can include Lowry on this list. He’s been awful recently and is a downgrade over Vincent at this point.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,620
I don't think we are disagreeing; it's more of just the perspective on how we see the distance between Tatum today and Tatum in a few seasons if it all goes well. Let's say Tatum's ceiling is like, prime Kevin Durant. I'd argue that he is like, 90% there at the moment; and while he is likely to certainly improve over the next few seasons, we can already envision what the best version of Tatum looks like (as opposed to say, TimeLord who is still a bit of a mystery).
It’s hard to figure where Tatum will improve but the fact that he’s doing what he is at 24 should be scary to other NBA teams. With more muscle and body control with increased age he should get to the rim a lot more and hopefully start getting some of the calls he hasn’t so far. Should be fun to watch. With how good he and Jaylen are at times it’s hard to remember how young they really are.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,620
In these playoffs, Butler is avergaging 37.3 minutes, Bam 32.2, and Herro 27.2. Lowry when playing was averaging 28.8.

Does Miami just need to step all those guy up to 38-40?

If you play Herro that much is he exposed as a poor defender (or at least one the Celtics can attack)?
I think you start playing them those kind of minutes now and you’re asking for trouble.. There’s very little recovery between games so I feel like their legs would be gone by game five or six. I wonder if anyone has studied minutes and effects on stamina etc.. if it’s something you have to ramp up over time.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Is it? TL is 5 months older than Jayson Tatum. I'd guess it's incremental growth from here on out.
I don't think you can look at their ages and compare that, they have very different development curves.

Tatum has played 14,500 NBA minutes between the regular season and the playoffs; Rob has played 4,000 minutes. Tatum also came into the league as a way more polished player; Williams was very raw and needed quite a while to stay healthy and to reach a level where he could play consistently.

The best version of Tatum is really just a slightly better player than what we see right now; maybe he shoots a little better from three, maybe he gets to the line a little bit more, maybe he gets savvier as a playmaker and more intelligent as a defender; but he is already close to a finished product from a utilization perspective. Time Lord it is still a mystery, especially because he isn't a total klutz with the basketball. Could he be used as more of a playmaker; passing off of a screen like Draymond? Could he shoot threes? Develop a little turn-around?
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
Jaylen is very quietly having a great playoffs as a #2. Do I wish his handle were a little better? Sure. Do I wish he could better defend elite players like Giannis or Butler? I mean, of course I do. But overall this has been a continuation of how he and Tatum can work perfectly well together and how if Jaylen is the 5th best defender on the floor for your team, you have a really fucking good defense.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,620
I don't think you can look at their ages and compare that, they have very different development curves.

Tatum has played 14,500 NBA minutes between the regular season and the playoffs; Rob has played 4,000 minutes. Tatum also came into the league as a way more polished player; Williams was very raw and needed quite a while to stay healthy and to reach a level where he could play consistently.

The best version of Tatum is really just a slightly better player than what we see right now; maybe he shoots a little better from three, maybe he gets to the line a little bit more, maybe he gets savvier as a playmaker and more intelligent as a defender; but he is already close to a finished product from a utilization perspective. Time Lord it is still a mystery, especially because he isn't a total klutz with the basketball. Could he be used as more of a playmaker; passing off of a screen like Draymond? Could he shoot threes? Develop a little turn-around?
I think a while ago we saw more of what he could be.. they were using him in the high post for pick and rolls as well as giving him the ball to pass out of the post.. he’s a really good passer..or at least was in those scenarios. The hardest thing to predict for him is health..
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,620
I think the Celtics struggle more than most when they get (or are gotten) off their game. I think they place high on the "No team that really truly is this fucking good should ever look so fucking terrible, but somehow they do" list. Usually when a team has big epic lapses it is because they aren't actually that good and their success is of the smoke-and-mirrors variety. That's not the Celtics - they are that good and it usually shows on the court.

As to the zone, I think the key differences between the Bubble C's and this team are Al Horford (who wasn't there) and Jayson Tatum (who is a lot better now, particularly when it comes to passing). Either Horford or Tatum can get the ball in the middle of the zone defense and just pick teams apart.
I would try full court pressure, since that worked for Milwaukee at times. Does Spoelstra have wrinkles to the zone? Can they fake blitz Tatum and recover to their guys? I don't know. Probably Lowry coming back and being immediately very good and Bam reverting more to his bubble self are the keys.
Tatum, Brown, Smart, Grant, and Rob are better now than they were then. We have Horford now and didn't then. Kemba and Hayward played a lot of injury-limited minutes. We have White and Pritchard; they had Wanamaker.
This series has shown some key areas where Rob can improve. When he gets that ball around the basket with a defender there, he needs to get up there strong and without getting his pocket picked. Obviously, even a good post player (Rob is more of a non-post player) will struggle if defended well, but Rob needs to be able to overpower guys who are just "there" as opposed to playing great D.
Re: full court press.. that seems unsustainable for too long.. especially if they’re playing longer minutes than normal. Plus.. once the Cs break the press you risk getting scored on a lot because you’re not set in your half court d. Does Miami have the guards to run a full court press effectively?
 

dhellers

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2005
4,209
Silver Spring, Maryland
Word.

I'm the biggest Jaylen stan here, so grain of salt and all that, but I've never seen him better. I think that his defense has been excellent and underrated so far these playoffs.
First half of 2020-21 season showed what JB can do when his health and head are in the right place. If that's where JB is trending, Celts are going to be real hard to beat.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Re: full court press.. that seems unsustainable for too long.. especially if they’re playing longer minutes than normal. Plus.. once the Cs break the press you risk getting scored on a lot because you’re not set in your half court d. Does Miami have the guards to run a full court press effectively?
They would need more than guards as even if Beverly or Alvarado were on the Heat you’d simply move Smart upcourt and have any of our other players bring the ball up against guys who can’t pressure. Even Horford has done a lot of this in the past. Full court presses don’t work in the NBA as it leads to numbers the other way more often than not.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,620
They would need more than guards as even if Beverly or Alvarado were on the Heat you’d simply move Smart upcourt and have any of our other players bring the ball up against guys who can’t pressure. Even Horford has done a lot of this in the past. Full court presses don’t work in the NBA as it leads to numbers the other way more often than not.
Yeah.. that was basically what I was thinking. You don't see a lot of full court press for too long in the NBA vs. college because NBA players and teams usually adjust and don't get flustered as often typically.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
From this article: "In [the Celtic's] dominant first half, Miami was 0-for-4 with four turnovers when Horford was the primary defender, per ESPN's Stats & Information research. Smart, meanwhile, was the last defender on Jimmy Butler -- who demolished Boston with Smart sidelined in Game 1 -- on 28 of the 46 plays Butler was on the court. Butler took just four shots when Smart guarded him. "
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,407
around the way
From this article: "In [the Celtic's] dominant first half, Miami was 0-for-4 with four turnovers when Horford was the primary defender, per ESPN's Stats & Information research. Smart, meanwhile, was the last defender on Jimmy Butler -- who demolished Boston with Smart sidelined in Game 1 -- on 28 of the 46 plays Butler was on the court. Butler took just four shots when Smart guarded him. "
That's what Miami has to figure out IMO.

They're riding Butler as far as he will take them, like Giannis in the last series. All this talk about getting Herro and Bam going is great, and either or both will have good games in this series that will matter. But they are who they are.

If I'm Spoel, I'm spending 104% of my time trying to come up with actions that get Butler unlocked, not worrying about how to get Herro and Duncan Robinson shots.
 

DGreenwood

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 2, 2003
2,446
Seattle
MOre from 538.

Celtics current rating is 1756. That's 113 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the same distance between the Warriors and the Hornets.

Celtics full-strength rating is 1799, and 185 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the distance between the Warriors and the Wizards.
How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
Per NBA.com, PP has the best Net Rating of any of the Celtics regulars in the playoffs, and the 3rd best DRating. If he's getting "hunted" so far it's not hurting them.
It's easier to maintain that net rating as the fourth guard on a juggernaut. The problem is when you have to play him big minutes against starters. In those instances he gets hunted. But, so long as Marcus stays healthy that isn't a problem.

Bam also plays like a shell of his 2020 self.
That's really only if you assume that 2020 Bubble Bam is his baseline. Boston was old, injured, and exhausted after the Toronto series ended up being a seven game slog. And they were defending Bam with Daniel Theis and rookie Grant Williams. Bam is basically Al Horford v1.1. He's got a solid all-around game and capable of anchoring a defense. You can't really expect that guy to be your alpha. He will need to extend his range the way Al has to be able to improve his effectiveness as a third star. The Heat are really a team of Robins and Wonder Twins desperately looking for Batman.
 
Last edited:

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
There were legitimately 5 posters in the game thread who kept talking about how Jaylen sucked and needed to wake up…it’s really fucking odd and annoying to read to be honest
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
It's easier to maintain that net rating as the fourth guard on a juggernaut. The problem is when you have to play him big minutes against starters. In those instances he gets hunted. But, so long as Marcus stays healthy that isn't a problem.
Totally agree. My point was in response to a question as to whether White would cut into PPs minutes. I was trying to respond that the team has been effective in his minutes on the floor, and to my eye he's been decent on the defensive end. I'd want to see him continue to get 15-20 minutes, I think he's earned it.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
You can include Lowry on this list. He’s been awful recently and is a downgrade over Vincent at this point.
For the life of me I couldn't understand why Miami decided to pay $85 million for the ages 35-37 seasons of a 5'11" G. I guess they're hoping to trade him to OKC for... something.]

DeathoftheBambino said:
Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
Did he post at all in the game 2 thread?
See? Proof!!! If Jaylen truly showed up for the big games he'd be posting in the game thread too!
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,853
How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.
There's a few teams like that. I guess there's a way their ratings could think a player is playing ABOVE his typical rating.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,127
Santa Monica
For the life of me I couldn't understand why Miami decided to pay $85 million for the ages 35-37 seasons of a 5'11" G. I guess they're hoping to trade him to OKC for... something.]
how about the kid from Exeter for $90M? :eek:

has Duncan been borrowing Pat's tanning bed?

#HeatCulture
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
Last night was the first game that I thought Rob looked like Rob since the injury. Blocks, lobs, rebounds. If it wasn’t a dominant performance, it was at least a pretty good one and while I know some of that may be that Giannis was a terrible matchup for him, he seems to be rounding into form at just the right time.
He was pretty darn good in Game 1, I'd say - other than getting stripped a few times.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.
Because 538 inexplicably assumes they will play Wiseman 21 minutes and correctly expects he will be terrible in those minutes.

538 has been wrong about the Warriors all year. It’s less wrong than it was because it has corrected its evaluation of how good Steph and Dray are. I think it still underrates Poole and Klay, although the latter remains a wildcard.