Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
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They'd be pumped up at the start, no doubt, but an early hole and I would imagine the boo birds come out pretty quickly.
I can definitely see Miami relaxing a bit, up 3-0, and the Celtics - hopefully - should be playing like their hair is on fire tomorrow night. I just hope they make some tweaks and adjustments to handle things a little differently, and don't fall apart if Miami gets ahead. Game 3, that first quarter just seemed to really beat the Celtics down. Everybody knew it was a big game for them, and come out and fall down by 10 right away - that was tough.
IF Jaylen is hurt, I hope they can figure out how to use him effectively - decoy, whatever, so that he's not shooting airball 3PAs from 35 feet.
IF Jaylen is hurt, I hope they can figure out how to use him effectively - decoy, whatever, so that he's not shooting airball 3PAs from 35 feet.
And as I said, apparently how teams defend means nothing. Why should the Cs even bother to run back?
The first quarter they got in their own heads. Some of it was The Heat, some of it was Tony Brothers bringing his unique blend of suck to the game, but you could see the game getting away from them in real time.
one play that sticks out, and it’s sad because it happened so early in the game, was Jaylen driving to the hoop getting clearly fouled by Strus and no call…on the other end the heat drain a wide open 3.
Now, there’s no way a championship level team should spiral out of control from bad calls in the first quarter of a game but that seems to be what happened last night
I only saw the title of the video. Assuming they didn’t make that title up…Jesus, I am losing faith by the second
Ha, yeah. The Heat won’t be getting complacent. They’ll be looking to be up 20 after 1. The Celtics had better hope they have a rare off shooting night. Otherwise, it’s Cancun time.
Definitely feels like yesterday was the wake and tomorrow is the funeral.
It’s not nothing, but when you’re getting outshot from 3 by this much you’re DOA to begin with.
View: https://twitter.com/stoolgreenie/status/1660747249188753408?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Janos am piss:
View: https://twitter.com/isjanosnba/status/1660467919502057472
View: https://twitter.com/isjanosnba/status/1660478526263287809
View: https://twitter.com/isjanosnba/status/1660482250885173249
That's more that the Greek god of tweets has had to say since Christmas day.
View: https://twitter.com/isjanosnba/status/1660467919502057472
View: https://twitter.com/isjanosnba/status/1660478526263287809
View: https://twitter.com/isjanosnba/status/1660482250885173249
That's more that the Greek god of tweets has had to say since Christmas day.
Yes, no one is disputing that they’re murdering us from 3. We’re also making it insanely easy for them to hit 3s because our perimeter D has been utter garbage.
I mean, look at the top 10 teams in FG% this season. You won’t find many teams that made deep playoff runs. The whole make/miss thing is just lazy, IMHO.
Not totally. 5 of the final 8 teams were top 7 in 3pt% for the season (really top 6 since BKN finished there but built much of that with a toitally different team than made the playoffs). Conversely 3 of the final 4 teams are top 4 in 3pt% allowed. Teams win by making 3s and preventing their opponent from making them.
Why is the coaching the reason the Heat have beaten three superior teams? It could a number of things and a confluence of factors in which coaching is a small part of the equation.
One thing that people keep forgetting is that this Heat team is clearly not the same one playing during the regular season. This is especially true for Kyle Lowry who basically looks like himself after appearing deceased a few months ago.
3 point defense is generally very swingy, but also the data on this series is available... the Celtics have actually taken more open 3s than MIA, in fact, Lowe mentioned on his pod today, that Spectrum actually gives the Celtics the slightly better overall shot profile.
it's very much a make/miss league with regards to top teams. If you make a high percentage of your open 3s you usually win, if you miss an abnormally high percentage you usually lose.
Make/miss is a slight simplification, but also is generally true except with regards to really bad teams against really good ones, everyone gets a certain number minimum of open 3s in a game, you make a high rate you'll win. It's one reason both Spo and Mazz in this series have put a big emphasis on getting your 3s up and playing to discourage the opponent taking 3s (see game 1 where MIA was willing to let us score inside 1 v 1 if it meant less 3PA.
This is right. To put some numbers on this, the Heat are 20/34 on wide open threes. The Celtics are 14/43. So more wide open threes but shooting much worse. The Heat are 20/37 on open threes. The Celtics are 14/43. Again, more open threes and much worse shooting. The Heat are 4/21 on contested threes. The Celtics are 3/18. The Heat haven’t taken a single tightly contested three (these are very uncommon). The Celtics are 0/2 on tightly contested threes.
And the Celtics aren’t just getting more good looks, but a higher percentage of them too. The Celtics have taken 41% wide open, 41% open, and 19% contested threes (the extra 1% is a rounding effect). The Heat are at 37% wide open, 40% open, and 23% contested. Those aren’t huge differences, but the fact remains that Miami is shooting absurdly well on open threes and Boston is shooting inexplicably poorly.
If you adjust those shooting percentages so Boston matches Miami (just on the open ones, I’ll give them the better shooting on contested threes on the assumption, probably wrong, that their contests have been better), we would have made 20 more threes, good for 60 more points. Miami is out scoring Boston by 39 points.
I’m not saying other things haven’t happened. The Celtics can and should play better. The Heat have been great. But without the extreme shooting disparity, we wouldn’t be talking about or thinking about those things the same way because this would be a very tight series instead of one heading toward a possible sweep. And a lot of the problems we are focusing on aren’t really different from problems Boston had on their way to the best regular season point differential and wins in the first two rounds. This also isn’t an excuse for those issues. Without them we might have won a game or two despite the massive shooting performance difference. But the shooting thing isn’t an excuse, it’s a real observation of a pretty extraordinary gap in performance that isn’t explained by shot creation or prevention, just shot making.
From the man's mouth.
Heat now have an eFG% of .605 for the series as a team.
Read that again.
He hasn't even played that well in this series overall, he was unbelievable against NY.
Great post. In short, when the Heat have been open this series they make Boston pay. And at an insane clip too. For the Cs its almost the exact opposite.
Make or miss is a large part of it.
They took 13 threes (five makes) in the fourth last night once the game was well and done. Most were, iirc, very wide open. I feel like that colors the data a bit differently if we're comparing the raw number of open looks.
It feels like the 2008(?) ALCS between Boston and Tampa, when it felt like every mistake pitch by Boston wasn’t just hit hard by TB… it was launched to the moon. At some point, even given open looks, Miami really should cool off.
These numbers tell me that the Celtics are in fact outplaying the Heat and are simply losing thanks to negative variance.
Maybe they can improve their defense, but the main cure is for shots to start falling as they should on both sides.
More to outplaying than just open 3s. Some other factors in there... quality of shooter, quality of shot, quality of non-3 attempts... offensive rebounds, fouls, etc.
What I would say is that the Celtics are probably unlucky to be down 3-0, they probably should have won at least one of the first 2 games with similar shooting luck (adjusted for shooter and situation).
I think the wildly variant shooting probably cost the C's one game out of three. THey'd still be in deep doo doo down 2-1.
If they are allowing them less open 3s while attempting more open 3s, that's the part of the game you have more control over and it shows that the Celtics are putting themselves in a position to win. As far as quality of the shots & shooters are concerned we have large sample sizes which I am guessing probably tell us that our shooters are at least on par in terms of quality as those of Miami. And since the 3s are a big part of the game nowadays, it's a big part of outplaying an opponent.
Other than that, I would agree that other than controlling the quaiity of the shots you allow and take, the other major variable for determining who wins and who loses is not turning the ball over more than the other team either through turnovers or through being outrebounded.
Agreed. They are getting a higher rate of corner threes, which cuts a bit the other way. The quality of 2 point shots is more complicated as they are getting to the rim less and shooting midrange jumpers a lot more, but are doing a better job of getting open looks. They are winning the turnover battle too.
I don’t think the Celtics are outplaying Miami aside from shooting variance. I think the real story is more we are playing them fairly even aside from making/missing. We should be outplaying them on talent, so the complaints about tactics/energy/effort all still hold weight. But the single biggest reason the series looks the way it does is making/missing open threes. That’s not the narrative people want to hear though.
From the little I know about basketball, the two things you don't want to be giving the opposing offense is quality three point shots and shots under the rim. It seems to me that Miami getting good midrange shots speaks well for the Celtics defense; this is the type of shots they want to be giving. Perhaps their defense can be better in that respect, but they are definitely where they want to be.
One other thing to note is that Miami is winning the series turnover battle 45-31. Both teams were in the top ten in limiting TOV per game during the regular season with the C's coughing up the ball 13.4 times per game while Miami fumbled at a rate of 13.5/game.
These numbers as well as the eye test suggest that the C's can clean this up a bit. Last game aside, extra possessions are like gold in this series so if they can just improve towards their season average (Miami is defending them better than most if not all regular season teams) it narrows the gap. If they can do anything to induce more Miami turnovers, even better.
These numbers as well as the eye test suggest that the C's can clean this up a bit. Last game aside, extra possessions are like gold in this series so if they can just improve towards their season average (Miami is defending them better than most if not all regular season teams) it narrows the gap. If they can do anything to induce more Miami turnovers, even better.
It’s Jimmy Butler. He raises the bar. Spo is an excellent coach and has the team playing together but Jimmy is the glue. When your best player outworks everyone else, requires everyone else to work up to their level, totally buys into the coach’s message and is popular, the rest of the players will follow. Not saying the Heat can beat Denver as they are also an exceptional team with a lot of the characteriistics I laid out. The Heat players want to play up to Butler’s level.
I like Tatum but it’s not “his” team. He’s not setting the tone on both ends and likely not in practice, film review or on the sidelines either. That’s just not who he is. He doesn’t raise the bar.
The Heat were 4th in the league this year at forcing turnovers, averaging 15.7 / game. In last year's ECF, they got 14.7 turnovers / game from Boston. and in 2020 they got 14.0 /game.
Boston was 25th this year at forcing turnovers, averaging 12.7 / game.
In last year's ECF, in the four games they won the Celtics had 15 or fewer turnovers; in the three games they lost they had 16 or more. They've turned it over exactly 15 times in all three games this series.
Thank you. So the Heat aren't even turning the ball over at the C's regular season forced-turnover rate either. These samples are tiny but they align with the idea that one team is taking care of business while the other is failing to execute.
If they can clean things up enough to capture one possession in each bucket (cleaning up turnovers, forcing more) that's meaningful given how relatively close the first two games were score-wise. Its also likely easier said than done, especially at this point.
Word. Miami is averaging 10 turnovers and shooting EFG% over 60. The Celtics are playing no defense. This isn't just Miami shooting well.
The shooting variance put the Celtics in the position of needing an (almost) impossible 3-0 comeback instead of a hard 2-1 comeback.
In both cases, they would need to play a lot better to have a chance at a comeback.
If you're the more talented team, you should be able to say "we'd be up 3-0 without shooting variance, but we're still up 2-1, so it's ok!" Instead, we're talking about how the Celtics probably should have one close win.
In both cases, they would need to play a lot better to have a chance at a comeback.
If you're the more talented team, you should be able to say "we'd be up 3-0 without shooting variance, but we're still up 2-1, so it's ok!" Instead, we're talking about how the Celtics probably should have one close win.
One interesting stat I heard about the game 3 blowout loss is that only one Celtic player had a "hockey assist," meaning passed the ball to a player who gets the assist. They only had 3 for the game, all by Tatum. That fits the eye test which showed the Celtics playing offense slowly and without purpose, with poor spacing, few attempts to penetrate and kick out, few attempts to get the defense into rotation.
Their transition offense is the one area where their offense looks good. For the most part, they make good decisions and play effectively against whatever defenders are back. Even so, most of the time they want no part of pushing the ball.
When they play ultra slow, as they often do, they give the defense plenty of time to get set and find their preferred matchups. If they would push the ball, then even if there wasn't a play there, they might have a mismatch right away. But they rarely do it. The Celtic who is most likely to push the ball, Derrick White, has been deemphasized in this series even though he has also been one of the few who has shot well.
Their defense also has no purpose. If they were playing D like last year's team, and pushing the ball, they would be winning this series despite their overdependence on threes and poor halfcourt offense.
I don't know what to epect tonight. It should be the obligatory win taken from a team that is up 3-0 and looking past the ECF to the Nuggets. But to win even that game you have to show some purpose and the Celtics look done.
Their transition offense is the one area where their offense looks good. For the most part, they make good decisions and play effectively against whatever defenders are back. Even so, most of the time they want no part of pushing the ball.
When they play ultra slow, as they often do, they give the defense plenty of time to get set and find their preferred matchups. If they would push the ball, then even if there wasn't a play there, they might have a mismatch right away. But they rarely do it. The Celtic who is most likely to push the ball, Derrick White, has been deemphasized in this series even though he has also been one of the few who has shot well.
Their defense also has no purpose. If they were playing D like last year's team, and pushing the ball, they would be winning this series despite their overdependence on threes and poor halfcourt offense.
I don't know what to epect tonight. It should be the obligatory win taken from a team that is up 3-0 and looking past the ECF to the Nuggets. But to win even that game you have to show some purpose and the Celtics look done.
Oh I think what to expect tonight is very straightforward: 1 2 3 Cancun.
They quit. They should be expected to quit and be known as quitters until they prove otherwise.
They quit. They should be expected to quit and be known as quitters until they prove otherwise.
It's interesting how narratives can quickly spin out of control. This team could easily have won both of the first two games of this series. If they had won even one of them it's unlikely we would be getting the "Fire Joe" chants and nobody would be calling them "quitters."
The last game was a horror show and it had little to do with shooting variance. The Heat were in their heads. Mentally, it's going to be very hard for them to overcome what the Heat did to them in the last game. It also was only one game (it just feels like more).
Joe was always going to be in an impossible position unless he won the championship. Nobody was going to give him credit for the team having a great regular season, or winning a couple of rounds in the postseason. And nobody has. If the team fell short the story was always going to be they lacked the leadership they got from Ime last year. It just so happens that the narrative is in bold print because of the way this series has gone.
I don't know what Brad is going to do, but given the endorsement he gave Joe, it would be surprising if he pulled the plug. More likely is that they build his staff, allow him to choose some pieces to help strengthen him. I think Brad sees Joe as being a great coach down the line. Everybody has to learn. Sometimes the curve is steeper.
The last game was a horror show and it had little to do with shooting variance. The Heat were in their heads. Mentally, it's going to be very hard for them to overcome what the Heat did to them in the last game. It also was only one game (it just feels like more).
Joe was always going to be in an impossible position unless he won the championship. Nobody was going to give him credit for the team having a great regular season, or winning a couple of rounds in the postseason. And nobody has. If the team fell short the story was always going to be they lacked the leadership they got from Ime last year. It just so happens that the narrative is in bold print because of the way this series has gone.
I don't know what Brad is going to do, but given the endorsement he gave Joe, it would be surprising if he pulled the plug. More likely is that they build his staff, allow him to choose some pieces to help strengthen him. I think Brad sees Joe as being a great coach down the line. Everybody has to learn. Sometimes the curve is steeper.
This team is in the middle of its window and the owners are about to pay large tax bills.
Do you think could be a great coach down the line and everybody has to learn will cut it for them?
I don't know. That's between Brad and Wyc. But I would say I think it's more likely to see some "surprising" roster decisions than see the coach get canned.
The team is likely still in its championship window, but those windows seldom last more than a small handful of seasons. Wyc/Brad aren't going to wait around for Mazzulla to learn on the job for the next 3-4 years. But the solution is probably going to involve bringing in some experienced assistants, and if Coach Joe bristles at that idea he will indeed be looking for work this summer.
Thats possible…it also goes against pretty much everything we’ve learned in pro sports recently. Not to mention that it’s a first time coach, not someone with a ton of gravitas or other options if this doesn’t work.
I have no idea what happens with Mazzulla. But I think that, if Brad and Joe want to sell this to Wyc, it will have to be a hell of a lot better than “I could be a very good coach” and “learning curves can be large and over multiple seasons”.
I think it’s along the lines of I am hiring Stephen Silas to coach defense, I am bringing in Frank Vogel as my “bench coach” because I was a train wreck on game days, I am going to start focusing and preaching effort/defense because effort as opposed to shoot a lot of 3 pointers, etc
The team let the narratives go where they've deservedly gone by quitting in a must in playoff game in a fashion that was so blatant and embarrassing.
I thought Simmons had a good point this week comparing this Celtics team to the early 90s Blazers. Right down to the young, deep nucleus that continually shoots themselves in the foot. Good enough teams to contend for titles but not enough to win a ring.
I’m not sure they’re even those Blazers yet, they took MJ to 6 games and I have a hard time faulting anyone for not winning a ring when he was playing. Last years Warriors weren’t exactly the 90s Bulls of this era.
This is neither here nor there, but I watched the first half of game 1 before going to bed, and I watched the first three quarters of game 2 before going to bed. In both cases the Celts led by ~10 when I stopped watching. I still can't believe they lost both games. In the 5 quarters I watched they were clearly the better team. Those are the only 5 quarters I've seen this series.
I do see some similarities with the 2004 ALCS in terms of losing a couple of close games and then getting blown out in game 3. But that Sox team had a different personality and resolve than these Celts - or so I think. Personally I'd be shocked if they don't lose by 30 tonight. But I do have a "don't let us win tonight" vibe in the sense that if the Celts can find a way to survive, confidence can come back quickly, and they get a home game 5, etc.
I do see some similarities with the 2004 ALCS in terms of losing a couple of close games and then getting blown out in game 3. But that Sox team had a different personality and resolve than these Celts - or so I think. Personally I'd be shocked if they don't lose by 30 tonight. But I do have a "don't let us win tonight" vibe in the sense that if the Celts can find a way to survive, confidence can come back quickly, and they get a home game 5, etc.
Agreed. And wasn't that Drexler at his absolute peak? I was too young to really remember but that was his only 1st All NBA team season