Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,249
The Celtics were 2-2 vs the Heat this year with Miami winning the last two games (something I expect to hear from Doris multiple times)

The 2 losses were of the tight variety:

G4 (Jan. 24) loss in Miami 98-95. 2nd night of a road back-to-back. Boston played without Horford, Smart & Brown (started JT/Pritchard/ White/TL/Grant). Miami played without Butler. Bam scored 30, but it was some G-Leaguer, Haywood Highsmith who went 4-4 from 3s that buried Boston in Q4 (when the Celtics scored 13pts).

G3 (Dec 2) loss at home 120-116 (OT) after Boston handled them by 13 a few nights earlier.

The one stat to keep an eye on for Boston against Miami is TURNOVERS
G1 19
G2 17
G3 20
G4 17

Obviously, live ball turnovers at the top that turn into runouts are the most detrimental play in the NBA. I'd avoid letting Brown run the offense from the top in the halfcourt. Miami will be waiting for that action and will send multiple ball hawks at JB to blow that action up. Let Marcus, Brogdon, White, and even less so Tatum get them into action. It's going to be a chess match with Spoelstra playing plenty of zone defense.
In baseball, many analyzers have said that "record in blowouts" is a better indicator of a teams ability than "record in close games."
Have there been similar studies in the NBA?
 

m0ckduck

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
1,714
I have to imagine that Bucks fans were saying the same thing when they drew the Heat in round 1. The Heat are a good, tough team. If they get some breaks and variance falls in their favor, they are good enough to beat the Celtics in a 7 game series.
I respect— and, yes, fear— the Heat. But they shot 45% from 3 (!) in the Bucks series, while missing their best shooter. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
Based on talent alone, it should be 4-1 Celtics. I'm expecting 7 and I'm terrified to say that I think the Heat will win because they just have an enormous amount of confidence and skill.
I think it comes down to G1. This is not exactly a "profiles in courage" prediction, but: if Spoelstra can play a few cards, throw the C's off balance and steal the opener like they did last year, then I'm bracing for a long slogging series of adjustments and counter-adjustments that favors the Heat. If the Heat don't show up with any answers in the first game, I don't expect them to suddenly manifest them through the series: the teams know each other too well, and there's too much talent disparity weighing on the Boston side.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
2BIGZ fits in against EVERYBODY.

Time Lord isn't nearly the offensive liability people make him out to be. In fact, he's extremely efficient as a screener, roller, ball mover & 5th offensive option.
Didn't you say (only half-seriously) during the off-season that the Cs should basically not play TL the first half of the season, use the 2nd half to get in game shape, but only really play him seriously during the playoffs?

Kind of what it's ended up being.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,072
Hingham, MA
I think it comes down to G1. This is not exactly a "profiles in courage" prediction, but: if Spoelstra can play a few cards, throw the C's off balance and steal the opener like they did last year, then I'm bracing for a long slogging series of adjustments and counter-adjustments that favors the Heat. If the Heat don't show up with any answers in the first game, I don't expect them to suddenly manifest them through the series: the teams know each other too well, and there's too much talent disparity weighing on the Boston side.
Eh. Didn't we see them play back to back games in Boston earlier this year, where the Celts won the first game easily, then the Heat made adjustments and took the 2nd game? Bottom line, if it's 1-1 going back to Miami then the series is probably going 6 games at a minimum.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I have to imagine that Bucks fans were saying the same thing when they drew the Heat in round 1. The Heat are a good, tough team. If they get some breaks and variance falls in their favor, they are good enough to beat the Celtics in a 7 game series.

I would also disagree that this Celtics team is more consistent. They have a lot of ups and downs. They are a team that relies on the 3 which can introduce more natural variance. And they can get careless with the ball - those high TO games let anyone play with them during the regular season at times.
This is where I'm at too. I expect a lot of zig-zag in this series and would be surprised if there isn't a Game 7...regardless of who closes it out sooner.

I think the biggest difference in this series is how engaged the Heat get when they are in a dogfight. Game 1 & 2, moreso than any other opponent, are crucial games for Boston to take so the Heat are playing the series uphill....and Game 1 scares the living shit out of me.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,072
Hingham, MA
538 now has the Celts at 78% chance to win the East, and a 54% chance to win it all (so an implied 69% in the Finals)
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,213
This is where I'm at too. I expect a lot of zig-zag in this series and would be surprised if there isn't a Game 7...regardless of who closes it out sooner.

I think the biggest difference in this series is how engaged the Heat get when they are in a dogfight. Game 1 & 2, moreso than any other opponent, are crucial games for Boston to take so the Heat are playing the series uphill....and Game 1 scares the living shit out of me.
I'd expect a tough series and agree Celtics defending home court in games 1 and 2 is critical....they are capable of winning this "easily" in sense of 6 or possibly even 5 games, but history suggests that is not at all likely.

These teams have played 11 times in a year counting the 7 in last year's ECF and 4 this regular season. Regular season games were a 2-2 split with a net +13 point differential for Celtics; last year's ECF was of course 4-3 Celtics, with a net point differential of Celtics +37. So across 11 games it's 6-5 Celtics....but with a +50 point differential. The Heat have only one double-digit win---11 point win in game 1 last ECF. Celtics have four, and that about sums it up---Celtics are 'better' and should be able to win this somewhat comfortably (as a +4.5 point differential/game suggests) AND Heat's consistency and ability to close out is a huge factor which makes up a lot of the talent gap.

Relative to last year Celtics have gained talent and Miami has lost talent (particularly with Herro out); Celtics have gotten somewhat better at closing games (a relative statement, to be sure) and materially better offensively. The other big indicator for me is Celtics defense, which was very consistent last year and as we all know, not so this year. If they keep up the defensive intensity I don't think Miami has the horses; however, that's simply an unknown.

If I'm making a call it is Celtics in 6---dropping one of first two, splitting in Miami, then winning games 5 and 6 to move on.
 

Curtis Pride

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
1,374
Watertown, MA
If we go by ORtg and DRtg, the Celtics are getting a similar defense to the Sixers, but a much worse offense:

Sixers: ORtg 117.7 (4th), DRtg 113.3 (8th)
Heat: ORtg 113.0 (25th), DRtg 113.3 (9th)

For comparison:
Celtics: ORtg 118.0 (2nd), DRtg 111.5 (3rd)
Bucks: ORtg 115.4 (12th), DRtg 111.9 (4th)
Hawks: ORtg 116.6 (7th), DRtg 116.3 (22nd)
Knicks: ORtg 117.8 (3rd), DRtg 114.8 (19th)

The Heat are the only team with a negative NetRtg in the bunch. And if Tyler Herro misses this series, realistically their only chance of beating the Celtics is to hold them under 110 points. The Sixers were able to do it twice. They were 1-1 in those games. The Hawks never did. Against the Knicks, the Heat never broke 110 points.

So statistically the Celtics will be the Heat's strongest opponent in the playoffs, and the Heat the Celtics' weakest. I think the Celtics' offense will win them this series because the Heat are a bit easier to defend. Push the ball, make their shots, and don't turn the ball over. Celtics in 5.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,127
Santa Monica
Didn't you say (only half-seriously) during the off-season that the Cs should basically not play TL the first half of the season, use the 2nd half to get in game shape, but only really play him seriously during the playoffs?

Kind of what it's ended up being.
Ha...I think most of the Cellar, you included, wanted TL and Al Horford shrink-wrapped this season. CJM probably should have re-introduced double BIGz more over the last month of the regular season, but White was playing so well that it was too tough a call. Fortunately, they pulled the trigger in G6 and held the Sixers to their 2 lowest point totals (86 & 88) for the season as a direct result

Lakers/Heat resting Bron, AD & Butler all season will only increase more LOAD MGMT for key players (especially with the PLAY-IN reset). The NBA thinks it has a problem, but I really don't mind seeing teams play their whole roster during the regular season. While it helped their MVP cases, Giannis and Embiid being banged up for the playoffs was a glaring mistake by those teams. They should have been in glass enclosures over the last month of the season.

The reality is Time Lord should be load-managed for the rest of his career. He played 35 games & half the season feels about right going forward (surgery or not). He averaged 23mpg but that really doesn't reflect his importance to the Celtics. Grant Williams averaged 26mpg but had no role in G6/G7. The Celtics can live with using guys like Grant/Blake/Kornet/Muscala in the regular season to sop up frontcourt minutes. Brad should really try to find that TL-light defense-first 5 this summer. Having that rim protector massively helps the other 4 on D.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,662
where I was last at
This is the series I did not want in the 1st round. I thought CJM post season inexperience would be
XSPOsed versus the devil spawn of South Beach Satan. The Heat are physical and disciplined and have a great coach who gets a lot from his team.

I feel better about that now. I'm just glad we're playing hoops and not chess.


Talent v talent this seems like a 5-6 game series win for the Celts.

But...
 
Last edited:

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
If I had to put money on it, I say Celtics in 6. I think there’s a pretty massive talent gap between these teams, so I can’t in good conscious say that the Heat will win but I have a lot of respect for their coach and the amount of fight they have.

Without Herro, and this list is accounting for Lowry looking like he’s close to being back fo what he was, their 4-9 are: Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Kevin Love, and Duncan Robinson. Maybe I am wrong here but would any of those players be in the Celtics Top 8? 9?

IMO, rhe two X Factors on the Heat are Caleb Martin (if he can knock down shots, he’s the closest thing the Heat have to a two way wing in that 4-9. Strus and Robinson can shoot but they can also be hunted on the other end) and Bam (For the Heat to win the series, Bam has to show up and be really fucking good 4 times)

In the end, I think the Celtics have too much firepower. They can make Butler work on the defensive end in a way the Knicks were incapable of and I think they have answers for everything the Heat can throw at them. I’m just praying that none of the Celtics get injured from the Heats….uh…sneaky tricks?

EDIT: If I am CJM, I play Hauser whenever Duncan gets run. I also carve out about 10-15 MPG for Grant to defend Bam.
This looks like more of a Brogdon series than a White one. The Heat guards are all bulkier, they don’t really have someone close to Maxey on their team (an athletic, quick guard who can blow by you).
IMO, they should have an 8-9 man rotation this series. I hope that they continue to run A LOT in the hopes of getting Butler worn out or tweaking that balky ankle
 

Mooch

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,494
I've got to think that the Heat will double Tatum constantly. He might get 15 assists per game if we knock down open shots.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
I've got to think that the Heat will double Tatum constantly. He might get 15 assists per game if we knock down open shots.
they’re going to try to run a ton of different looks and basically junk it up.
I’m guessing Tatum sees doubles, traps, everything you can think of. I think we see a decent amount of zone too
 

Silverdude2167

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 9, 2006
4,684
Amstredam
We are going to see that Butler miss 5000 times by Wednesday.
I have now seen it noted in a few writeups this morning. I feel like someone needs to point out that we should stop acting like the Celtics were lucky that a 33% career 3-point shooter missed a 3. That is the expected outcome of that shot.
 

Batman Likes The Sox

Not postscient
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2003
2,434
Madison, CT
With current lineups based on health, I'm surprised folks think this will be a long series. It's the ECF and the Heat are hot and scrappy, to be sure, but if play continues like in the last two against Philadelphia, with a fair amount of time from Al and Robert, I just don't see how the Heat can consistently score. If Herro were playing I think it's a tighter contest and we see a 6 or 7 game series. But without their biggest 3-pt threat and with the lane clogged, where does Miami get their points?

I could see this getting to 5 games (or even 6) if Butler hits 40+ once or twice and concurrently Boston has a night with a lot of missed 3s and turnovers. But I think this might be a Boston sweep.

Miami should not be taken lightly. But Boston is substantially better with Herro missing.
 

KingChre

New Member
Jul 31, 2009
130
I've got a sweet connection with the Heat so I've been rooting for this so I can go to a game or 2.

Now that it's here I'm just fucking nervous lol.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
I have the Celtics in 5. Last season, Miami got Game 1 at home last year, when the Celtics had to play a road game 40 hours after the end of the grueling series when they ousted the defending champs. This year, they get to regroup from their seven game win at home, with an extra day until the Wednesday night opener.

Boston had a stronger team before Herro and Olidapo were lost to injury. As long as Boston plays offense at a good pace, they should handle Miami. They certainly won’t be afraid to win in Miami, where they took three playoff games by an average of 14 point a year ago.

Butler will have to be otherworldly for Miami to win this series. Boston should have the personnel to not allow that to happen.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
I'm not sure whether to say Celtics in 6 or 7. I respect the Heat and Butler too much to say 5, even though all the reasons that this is different from last year are true. The Heat are going to shoot well in some games, Butler is going to go off in some games, and they are going to throw stuff at Tatum and Brown that might take more than a game to solve.

Heck, the Celtics didn't really solve the Harden/Embiid PnR until game 6, and they have better personnel to solve it than basically anyone in the NBA. The playoffs are tough, man.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,072
Hingham, MA
I have the Celtics in 5. Last season, Miami got Game 1 at home last year, when the Celtics had to play a road game 40 hours after the end of the grueling series when they ousted the defending champs. This year, they get to regroup from their seven game win at home, with an extra day until the Wednesday night opener.

Boston had a stronger team before Herro and Olidapo were lost to injury. As long as Boston plays offense at a good pace, they should handle Miami. They certainly won’t be afraid to win in Miami, where they took three playoff games by an average of 14 point a year ago.

Butler will have to be otherworldly for Miami to win this series. Boston should have the personnel to not allow that to happen.
That's a great point about last year. In as far as there shouldn't really be schedule losses in the playoffs, that was as close to a schedule loss as possible.

Edit: I am probably going to regret writing this by the end of the week, but I think there is a universe in which the Celts know exactly what they are getting themselves into with this Heat team, and just lock down and take care of business. Like the Nets series last year.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I've got a sweet connection with the Heat so I've been rooting for this so I can go to a game or 2.

Now that it's here I'm just fucking nervous lol.
That's awesome! I'm up the road 45 min and will get to at least one of these. The last time I spoke to my connection was at the Heat's first even exhibition game at FAU against Dale Ellis and the X-Man. Jesus that was 35 years ago and Eric Reid is still the voice of the Heat!
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
That's a great point about last year. In as far as there shouldn't really be schedule losses in the playoffs, that was as close to a schedule loss as possible.

Edit: I am probably going to regret writing this by the end of the week, but I think there is a universe in which the Celts know exactly what they are getting themselves into with this Heat team, and just lock down and take care of business. Like the Nets series last year.
I think they know exactly what they're getting into, but that Butler and Spo are good enough for that to still not matter.

And fwiw, the Nets easily could have taken 2-3 games off the Celtics in that series with a few different bounces.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,072
Hingham, MA
I think they know exactly what they're getting into, but that Butler and Spo are good enough for that to still not matter.

And fwiw, the Nets easily could have taken 2-3 games off the Celtics in that series with a few different bounces.
Fair points both
 

Strike4

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,896
Portland, Maine
My hope is that Tatum nearly laying an egg in Game 6 against the Sixers, and staring into the abyss of living all summer with the squander of that series, was a watershed moment in his career. Do. Not. Put. Yourselves. In. That. Position. Again. Lay off the complaining to the refs if things don't go your way; don't force the issue if the Heat double team or muck it up; play focused, hard defense and help your team win, even if that means facilitating. What Tatum does will extend to the rest of the team. We forget that early in Game 7 against the Sixers, he wasn't draining threes and blowing their doors off - he was quietly having a good game that was based on taking care of the ball, making good decisions, playing good defense, and persevering at the rim in the face of some really good Sixers interior. You could see the rest of the team feeding off this. They need to come out in Game 1 and push them into the sea.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
I'm not sure whether to say Celtics in 6 or 7. I respect the Heat and Butler too much to say 5, even though all the reasons that this is different from last year are true. The Heat are going to shoot well in some games, Butler is going to go off in some games, and they are going to throw stuff at Tatum and Brown that might take more than a game to solve.

Heck, the Celtics didn't really solve the Harden/Embiid PnR until game 6, and they have better personnel to solve it than basically anyone in the NBA. The playoffs are tough, man.
If the Celtics handled crunch time better in Games 1 and 4, they would have swept the Sixers, and wouldn’t have needed to adjust from an offense oriented starting lineup to the TL as free safety lineup in Games 6 and 7. They played a lot of drop coverage on the Harden/Embiid pick and roll with their smaller lineup. Against the Heat, they should be able to switch everything most of the time. If Boston goes double big, TL would probably play Martin, who is at .386 from deep in the playoffs, averaging 1.5 threes a game on 4 attempts.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
My assumption, based on watching these two teams this season, is that this series goes seven. If I start predicting this series and that view is inevitably wrong, I don't want to have to join the takes market to soothe my ego ("its the rookie head coach!", "its Tatum who isn't a true alpha!", "Player X needs to play over player Y, its sooo obvious!").

More to the point, we have the teams body of work over a few seasons. The Heat with their well constructed roster and coaching are capable of beating anyone in a given game.

Then we have this iteration of the Celtics. If the '22-23 Cs have an playing style identity, its that of an incredibly high ceiling and a surprisingly low floor. In short, they either look like the best team in the NBA or one of the worst depending on their makes/misses.

Assume seven. Its not unlikely, the skew may be in that direction (if you buy that the league prefers longer series) and it gives us room to breathe if/when this series is a battle.
 

jmcc5400

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2000
5,222
My hope is that Tatum nearly laying an egg in Game 6 against the Sixers, and staring into the abyss of living all summer with the squander of that series, was a watershed moment in his career. Do. Not. Put. Yourselves. In. That. Position. Again. Lay off the complaining to the refs if things don't go your way; don't force the issue if the Heat double team or muck it up; play focused, hard defense and help your team win, even if that means facilitating. What Tatum does will extend to the rest of the team. We forget that early in Game 7 against the Sixers, he wasn't draining threes and blowing their doors off - he was quietly having a good game that was based on taking care of the ball, making good decisions, playing good defense, and persevering at the rim in the face of some really good Sixers interior. You could see the rest of the team feeding off this. They need to come out in Game 1 and push them into the sea.
Did you notice the way Smart was calming everyone down every time there was a bad call or discussion with a ref? Maybe last year’s disappointment and this year’s near death experience has finally matured them.

Or we’ll be gnashing our teeth going back to Miami 1-1 despite being + 22 in point differential.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Here are the Boston turnovers in the Sixers series: 16, 8, 10, in the losses, 6, 12, 17, 7 In the wins.
In their two blowout wins, they turned it over only 6 and 7 times.

Boston turned it over 16, 23, and 17 In the three Miami playoff losses last season, and in the wins 9, 9, 15, and 13, with 5 coming in the fourth quarter of a game 7 Boston led the entire way.

If Boston takes care of the ball they will beat the Heat.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,597
Here
I’m not going to Lucy football myself here with recency bias, this team always makes things tough and I would definitely say the Heat are favored in close and late situations. Thus, I’ll go with Celtics in 7 again. Probably a couple games the Celtics win easily, a couple close ones the Heat win or steal, then the talent wins out in the end.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
Miami could take 5 guys from the Y and stretch the Celtics to 6-7 games. Not falling for it this time. Just win the series and I don’t care how it’s done. This ain’t ending in 5 games. There will be some sloppy games on our end and some stupid shooting from their role guys. It’s just how it’s meant to be.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,029
I don't see how this goes anything other than 7 games. It'll be a slugfest. I'm sure Herro will make an appearance this series and give us all heartburn at some point.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,101
Celtics in 7, but agree that Miami has the talent to pull it out if it goes that far.

If the series is any shorter, it will be the Celtics prevailing; no way Miami wins in less than 7. But Miami is always a difficult matchup for the C's, so I'm expecting 7.
 

astrozombie

New Member
Sep 12, 2022
394
I was thrilled when the Cs got Atlanta in round 1, in small part because I wanted the Hawks but moreso because the Heat legit scare me. Jimmy Buckets always plays hard and then has 2-3 games where he just goes off, Adebayo (who tends to disappear at other times in the year) always shows up for the Cs and Lowry... I'll leave it at that I just don't like Lowry. I also have the sick feeling that with Herro out, Duncan Robinson is gonna get put in and inexplicably have some kind of crazy 30 point on 8-10 from 3 type game.
I suppose I would rather the Heat than the Bucks, but man... right after the Bucks, the Heat were the only other team I did not want the Cs to face. Here's hoping they can ride the momentum of the Philly game 7 and take control early.
 

Dr. Gonzo

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2010
5,213
Gentleman’s sweep for the Celts.

Butler is Butler but TL is a great matchup on Bam and that roster is garbage after those two. Celtics overpower them and Miami can’t score enough to keep up.
 

jablo1312

New Member
Sep 20, 2005
970
I’m not going to Lucy football myself here with recency bias, this team always makes things tough and I would definitely say the Heat are favored in close and late situations. Thus, I’ll go with Celtics in 7 again. Probably a couple games the Celtics win easily, a couple close ones the Heat win or steal, then the talent wins out in the end.
Basically where I'm at...but I'm going to zag, Lucy myself here, and call a sweep. They have the best player, the deeper roster, and (knock on wood) the health advantage (Jimmy is not 100%, though having 5 days off will help that to some degree). They have counters to whatever Miami can put out there. They blew out the Heat 3x last year. Do it again.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,058
I just really hope the Celtics take advantage of the horrific defenders the Heat are going to have to roll out there to try to score. Duncan Robinson, Strus.

Therefore the Heat will go to zone. All about if the Celtics can get into the paint to create movement against it, or if they pass around the perimeter.
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
SoSH Member
Sep 6, 2004
36,693
where the darn libs live
And the Celtics don't?

Edit: will be interesting to see if the C's figured something out over the last two games.. interested to see how the Heat react to Horford and Timelord playing together. Do think the Celts should use their depth to their advantage more this series.
Of course the Celtics do, and these two teams know one another quite well at this point. I don't think anyone here is looking past the Heat or something like that. They're just very good and -- especially for an 8 seed -- a team that shouldn't be afraid of any moments that come up in this series.

So you're saying you're terrified?

It's always weird when people ascribe things to opposing teams but not our own. The Celtics have a ton of confidence in themselves, as evidenced by their ability to win an elimination game on the road, bounce back from a shaky 1st quarter in G7 and blow the other team out to finish them off. They've done that two postseasons in a row. As for skill, well - it was on full display today. I'll remind people we beat this Heat team last year. And before anyone brings up the Butler missed 3, it should have never gone to game 7 and I think most people know that. It was a serious growing pains series for the Cs against a tough team that won't beat itself.

So I have to ask, in this rematch: which team has gotten better, and which team is currently worse?
Oh, the C's are definitely better, and the Heat are missing Herro. This should be a 5 or 6 game series that the Celtics win rather handily, but the Heat culture / coaching / x-factors are what (somewhat irrationally, I'll admit) scare me.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
I just really hope the Celtics take advantage of the horrific defenders the Heat are going to have to roll out there to try to score. Duncan Robinson, Strus.

Therefore the Heat will go to zone. All about if the Celtics can get into the paint to create movement against it, or if they pass around the perimeter.
Can’t forget Kevin Love on that list!

I guess their best defensive line-up would be Vincent, Lowry, Martin, Butler and Bam….but that line-up is incredibly small and it’s not exactly great shooting either. If the Heat want to space the floor there are almost always going to have 1-2 non-defenders out there.

I agree, I really hope the Celtics stay disciplined and attack the mismatches. They will be there
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
Is Strus actually even that bad a defender? He has size, and is ok at least in a zone. He's not Duncan Robinson.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
Is Strus actually even that bad a defender? He has size, and is ok at least in a zone. He's not Duncan Robinson.
I feel like Strus is basically a league average wing defender that teams try to pick on. I'm fine with Tatum/Brown attacking him whenever they get the chance (and Brogdon when he gets a step), but otherwise there are better options.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I feel like Strus is basically a league average wing defender that teams try to pick on. I'm fine with Tatum/Brown attacking him whenever they get the chance (and Brogdon when he gets a step), but otherwise there are better options.
Strus is similar to Hauser, but better in this area, in that both are very good positional defenders whose lack of athleticism generates isos that often times takes the opponent out of their offense. Both can be attacked effectively in space and especially downhill but within a halfcourt set if you aren't engaging them in a PNR you're better off running your normal stuff most of the time.
 

sonofgodcf

Guest
Jul 17, 2005
1,646
The toilet.
Gentleman’s sweep for the Celts.

Butler is Butler but TL is a great matchup on Bam and that roster is garbage after those two. Celtics overpower them and Miami can’t score enough to keep up.
This. C's are a better team and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. Aside from trying to injure Celtic players, I don't understand why anyone would be terrified of that team. They're an 8 seed - championship teams roll 8 seeds.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
Strus is similar to Hauser, but better in this area, in that both are very good positional defenders whose lack of athleticism generates isos that often times takes the opponent out of their offense. Both can be attacked effectively in space and especially downhill but within a halfcourt set if you aren't engaging them in a PNR you're better off running your normal stuff most of the time.
Strus is a level above Hauser athletically. Dunks aren't everything, but Hauser has 3 total dunks in his NBA career, including playoffs, over 123 games. Strus has 6 dunks just in 11 playoff games this year. I'm trying to imagine Hauser completing this play, and it ain't happening:

View: https://twitter.com/hoops_bot/status/1600625149350678528?s=20


Neither guy moves laterally very quickly and Hauser is a couple inches taller, which makes the gap a bit smaller.