Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

InstaFace

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If we were going to pick a rotation player we could most afford to lose to injury in this series, I think it would've been Brogdon. Even over Grant, because Grant has a lot of defensive value vs Adebayo and is a lot more switchable.
 

jmcc5400

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If we were going to pick a rotation player we could most afford to lose to injury in this series, I think it would've been Brogdon. Even over Grant, because Grant has a lot of defensive value vs Adebayo and is a lot more switchable.
I agree with this, and you certainly don’t play him through the injury. He’s been awful on both ends this series.
 

ehaz

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Zach Lowe said on his podcast that the Celtics have been watching "Four Days in October" video clips before each game.

So it's very much not just us making the comparison...
Brogdon currently getting amateur surgery in the training room and becoming a fascist.
 

Toe Nash

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Something I haven't seen mentioned much is Spoelstra's decision to rest Bam and Jimmy for basically all of the 4th quarter in game 5. I think if a different coach does that it gets lots of second-guessing. (Related, I saw at least one article saying Vincent wanted to play in game 5 but they held him out because they had a 3-1 lead.)

Yes, they were down by 20, but how often have we seen runs of 9,10 or 12 points? Do that and it's just 3 or 4 possessions difference and all the pressure is on Boston. I mean, they dropped 45 in a quarter in game 1 as we remember. I don't think your best two players should take any quarters off in the eastern conference finals.

The benefit is that your two stars play 33 and 32 minutes instead of 40? Is that really going to make them much better-rested in game 6 48 hours later? I'm not a doctor but to me the chance you come back and have a shot to end the series, even if small, is worth more than the additional quarter of rest. You can still sit them with 3-4 left if it's no closer, like the Celtics did.
 

lovegtm

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This is a great article written from the Heat perspective. He gives a breakdown of the adjustments and counter-adjustments made in the series with lots of good stats.

https://www.nba.com/heat/news/coup-working-crowd-celtics-becoming-heat
Great article; Moorhead is one of the best out there.

I can't help but think that, win or lose, the Celtics have started to find a defensive identity that goes beyond just switching a lot, or waiting for TL to clean everything up by cheating off a non-shooter. There is something in this more Heat-like defense that they can build on going forward in these playoffs (god willing) and next year.
 

NomarsFool

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Something I haven't seen mentioned much is Spoelstra's decision to rest Bam and Jimmy for basically all of the 4th quarter in game 5. I think if a different coach does that it gets lots of second-guessing. (Related, I saw at least one article saying Vincent wanted to play in game 5 but they held him out because they had a 3-1 lead.)

Yes, they were down by 20, but how often have we seen runs of 9,10 or 12 points? Do that and it's just 3 or 4 possessions difference and all the pressure is on Boston. I mean, they dropped 45 in a quarter in game 1 as we remember. I don't think your best two players should take any quarters off in the eastern conference finals.

The benefit is that your two stars play 33 and 32 minutes instead of 40? Is that really going to make them much better-rested in game 6 48 hours later? I'm not a doctor but to me the chance you come back and have a shot to end the series, even if small, is worth more than the additional quarter of rest. You can still sit them with 3-4 left if it's no closer, like the Celtics did.
Interestingly, the lead dipped to 10 with maybe a little more than a minute? I know that’s hard to erase, but not impossible, and there was about 10 seconds where I was a little nervous given the personnel we had on the court.
 

Euclis20

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Interestingly, the lead dipped to 10 with maybe a little more than a minute? I know that’s hard to erase, but not impossible, and there was about 10 seconds where I was a little nervous given the personnel we had on the court.
Considering how fast leads can vanish (double digit 4th quarter leads, and even 20 point leads in the second half feel unsafe), I've been watching games over the last few years with a basic assumption: A lead is safe if the team is up by at least 6 points per minute remaining, and they have the ball. Even if the team with the lead does nothing, they should be able to drain at least 40 seconds off the clock on offense, leaving just 20 seconds for the opposing team to hit two 3s (per minute). It's not impossible (if the leading team turns the ball over multiple times, or shoots and misses early in the shot clock), but this almost always seems to be the case.

It was borderline when they pulled everyone with a 19 point lead and 3:20 left, and a 9-0 run over 2 minutes feels rough, but with the ball and a 10 point lead and the clock about to go under a minute remaining, it felt ok. Win probability was 99.7% at that point.
 

bosockboy

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Tonight will get both teams max A games. Hopefully everything besides talent cancels out and we come out on top. I might be more nervous than any game the last two postseasons, Finals included.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think you have to take into account the Heat's injury and depth issues
When Spo makes that call he knows he has 2 more chances with much higher probability coming up, he has no depth and doesn't know if Vincent will be back. Plus Jimmy looks tired and even a little tweak to Jimmy or Bam and the series is over.

Given how they looked odds of a comeback are low. Making sure you're in the best position to win Game 6 at home is probably the logical play.
 

Euclis20

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I think you have to take into account the Heat's injury and depth issues
When Spo makes that call he knows he has 2 more chances with much higher probability coming up, he has no depth and doesn't know if Vincent will be back. Plus Jimmy looks tired and even a little tweak to Jimmy or Bam and the series is over.

Given how they looked odds of a comeback are low. Making sure you're in the best position to win Game 6 at home is probably the logical play.
I'd feel better about Jimmy looking off for the last few games if he hadn't done something similar last year. Games 3/4/5 last year, he averaged just 9 points and shot 25% from the field with just 6 total FTAs. Injuries were a factor here, but regardless of the reason, he looked awful (meaning the Heat were done). Then he put up 82 points in games 6 and 7, shooting .547 from the field and getting to the line 22 times. I don't know what happens tonight, but I feel like predicting Butler's performance based on his recent games doesn't give me as much hope as it should.
 

jmcc5400

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I assume some of you will want to watch this possession repeatedly, as I did when I first saw it live.

View: https://streamable.com/ctc9zh
Tatum's pass to Al is astonishing. And it came on the heels of another great pass, where he drove in to the lane and hooked a perfect pass back to Marcus for a wide open three. You can see glimpses of him getting even better. We're so lucky he's ours.
 

bosockboy

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I'd feel better about Jimmy looking off for the last few games if he hadn't done something similar last year. Games 3/4/5 last year, he averaged just 9 points and shot 25% from the field with just 6 total FTAs. Injuries were a factor here, but regardless of the reason, he looked awful (meaning the Heat were done). Then he put up 82 points in games 6 and 7, shooting .547 from the field and getting to the line 22 times. I don't know what happens tonight, but I feel like predicting Butler's performance based on his recent games doesn't give me as much hope as it should.
Getting him out of rhythm early is the key.
 

bosockboy

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Based on unscientific observation:

If they do 2 of these 3 they win any game they play-
•37% and up from 3
•10 turnovers or less
•Hold opponent under 50% shooting

1 of 3 it’s very problematic (first 3 games had a couple of 0 out of these 3).
 

Brand Name

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Celtics are 29-3 all time in the postseason when they do all three of the above, including 4-1 this postseason, and did so in Game 4 this series. Game 4 last series to Philly was a loss in OT no less, which matters for a counting stat like turnovers.

-38.6% from 3, at 17 for 44.
-7 turnovers.
-76ers shot 46.2%, going 42 for 91.
 

bosockboy

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Celtics are 29-3 all time in the postseason when they do all three of the above, including 4-1 this postseason, and did so in Game 4 this series. Game 4 last series to Philly was a loss in OT no less, which matters for a counting stat like turnovers.

-38.6% from 3, at 17 for 44.
-7 turnovers.
-76ers shot 46.2%, going 42 for 91.
Great work. Like I said, 2 of 3 probably gets it back to Boston.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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That was a near death experience. Did all the dumb shit from games 1 & 2 to almost lose, but won it with the offensive boards they’ve dominated during the past few.
 

koufax32

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A 25 pt cakewalk would be nice on Monday. I’m 44 and clearly not able to handle games like this anymore. I think if the 2004 ALCS happened now it would literally kill me.
 

Cellar-Door

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If they play G7 like they played G6 they are going to lose by 20.
Meh, they played pretty well most of the game, they just bricked all their 3s. If they even shot a shitty 30% they'd have been up 20 and won by double figures
 

Devizier

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Meh, they played pretty well most of the game, they just bricked all their 3s.
I thought they played great except for the end stretch. They need to keep loose and run their offense but the defensive energy was still there. The missed shots is just the shit you live with these days.
 

Cellar-Door

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I thought they played great except for the end stretch. They need to keep loose and run their offense but the defensive energy was still there. The missed shots is just the shit you live with these days.
yeah, they did go into prevent a bit at the end but outside of that they played really well. Most impressive portion to me was when they got 7 straight fouls could have fallen apart, but instead blew it up to 10
 

ManicCompression

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I feel bad for the posters whose takeaway is "Man, they played bad tonight." We've been asking them to win a close game all playoffs and they pulled it out with good defense, effort, and triumphing in the face of adversity. They were on the road and forced a bunch of role players to step up while holding Adebayo and Butler to pedestrian shooting numbers.

We don't look at "Havlicek stole the ball!" as luck or a choke (they were up by 8 heading to the 4th in that game). Just let this sit in the annals of history as an amazing win and be glad that we got to witness it.

Fuck yes. Oh my god. We're going to game 7 at home with all of the momentum. This team is showing a ton of spine.
 

InstaFace

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But they also made a huge play with the chips down. A season saving play. Why dismiss that as lucky?
If anything that's under-selling it. That was a "Havlicek steals the ball!" level legendary play. It might not feel like it right now in the rush of a crazy game, but I promise you, its weight, its part in Celtics lore, will grow and grow. Derrick White likely will never do something bigger than that in his life. He may have just done the one thing, minutes ago, that 50 years from now he's still telling his grandkids about and they're pissed from hearing it for the 30th time. When they show the montage, of Kawhi's 4-bouncer shot, of Jordan On Ehlo, of Bird Steals It, Derrick White's tip-in to steal victory from the jaws of defeat will be on that highlight reel, emblazoned on NBA history. Mark my words, we just witnessed something historic.

... and that's not even considering that as a result, we still have the chance to be the first team to overturn an 0-3 deficit!
 

lexrageorge

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If anything that's under-selling it. That was a "Havlicek steals the ball!" level legendary play. It might not feel like it right now in the rush of a crazy game, but I promise you, its weight, its part in Celtics lore, will grow and grow. Derrick White likely will never do something bigger than that in his life. He may have just done the one thing, minutes ago, that 50 years from now he's still telling his grandkids about and they're pissed from hearing it for the 30th time. When they show the montage, of Kawhi's 4-bouncer shot, of Jordan On Ehlo, of Bird Steals It, Derrick White's tip-in to steal victory from the jaws of defeat will be on that highlight reel, emblazoned on NBA history. Mark my words, we just witnessed something historic.

... and that's not even considering that as a result, we still have the chance to be the first team to overturn an 0-3 deficit!
If they win G7, Derrick White will be mentioned in the same sentence as Dave Roberts and Malcolm Butler.
 

teddykgb

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I just don’t feel the high because I just don’t see how they can actually win the whole thing when they can’t finish games they aren’t leading by more than 10 late. It’s a great win and at this point you have to like our chances and hope you can just shoot the ball well again but once again blowing a 10 point lead late really shakes me. Expect it’s not a popular opinion but it’s just how I feel about this team.
 

NomarsFool

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Seems like Jaylen Brown is back. I think if he hadn’t gotten into foul trouble that would have been an easy win. I don’t like how much we seem to apparently be missing Brogdon a lot on the offensive end. Tatum was insane in the first half