Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
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I think it's pretty lazy at this point to say that this past Sixers series went to seven games because of CJM.
Is it CJM's fault that Tatum couldn't shoot.. or that Horford went cold from three for much of the series.. or that several end of game situations were completely misplayed by the players? etc.
Spoelstra has been to the finals once since Lebron left.. and they lost.
They definitely need to go deeper than 7 and try to get production from someone other than Brogdon and White. Grant and Hauser are obvious candidates but I thought those guys would get regular minutes against Philly, too.
A lot, for sure, but they will also likely throw other looks at him as well. Putting JB on Butler has two advantages, just like in the Philly season. One, JB is definitely an above average on-ball defender. Two, JB is definitely a below average off-ball defender. So, it's a win-win for Boston to have JB on whomever is going to have the ball a lot for the other team.
On Butler? I think it’s going to be Brown/Smart/Brogdon (in that order). Id Imagine Grant only guards Bam
Interesting. I just figured that Grant is smart enough to body him up for a few minutes at a time.
You're right. But you did say that the major narrative going forward was going to be about the coaches... and that the Celtics have a huge talent disparity.. so I naturally assume that you also think that they're being held back.
Was I misreading you? Most of the problems in the Sixers series had nothing to do with coaching IMO.
There’s no doubt that Boston’s going to win. There’s also no doubt that with Heat playing defense “the right way” by stepping into every shooter and taking cheap shots on every play that Boston is going to emerge from the series injured. Hopefully this time it isn’t Tatum.
I mean I’m posting in the Miami thread, so that’s what I was talking about. I think the only shot the Heat have is to out coach the Celtics, and to me that’s not a particularly interesting series, and it would be really disappointing if it’s what did the Celtics in. (Edit: or as mentioned above, injuries, especially on questionable plays)
But since you asked, I thought the three Celtics losses against the Sixers looked a lot like many of their losses under Udoka and Stevens, so it seems hard to blame the coach for those. I didn’t feel like if Rivers and Mazzulla switched the outcome of many of those games would have changed. I do think if Spoelstra were coaching the Celtics these past two series, at least one of the three close losses wouldn’t have happened.
Been scared of this team and coach since they were our most likely rd 1 opponent but ultimately I think if they take care of the ball the talent should win out. There is a massive disparity here, and this is a series in which Grant can be usable as a smallball 5 as well.
After this Sixers series? 0.0%.
….Until they go up by 10 in the first quarter of game one, decide they are comfortable that they are the better team, stop defending and start chucking up shots like Philip Seymour Hoffman in Along Came Polly.
I hate that I have to watch another Kyle Lowry series. This is a guy who literally probably claimed that he extensively watched tapes of games to determine the best ways to appear to be fouled in various situations, and who credibly could have once asserted that “perhaps 1/3 of the time I get a whistle, it’s for a legitimate foul, and really it’s probably closer to 1/4.”
I'll be really surprised if the Celts fall for the Lowry crap this series. They've been through it last year. To me this feels like Detroit in '08. The Celts have their jitters out. The Heat are another year older and have played all their tricks. It comes down to talent and execution, and the Celts are better and more consistent. Embiid and Harden were a new challenge. The Heat are a known commodity.
Don't want to jinx anything but I feel like MIA had a super favorable draw into this round and is the least talented of the teams BOS will have faced.
They're a known quantity, and they're not as deep as last year. People are undervaluing the loss of Herro, and last year they also had Oladipo contributing, as well as the legendary PJ Tucker. It's pretty amazing that they've gotten this far, but they're not beating the C's.
I'm a little less on the Spoelstra train than a lot of people are.. but then again I'm not someone who can see all of the moves that he's made to help his teams win. Even as a very good coach his teams haven't really won all that much since LeBron left. He did get to the finals once.. and his team has played the Celtics three times in the last four years in the ECF... interestingly against three different coaches.
But have his teams done all that well in the regular season? And why hasn't his team won more in the playoffs if he's such a savant?
Would like to see the argument for why he's such a great coach being a bit more about what he does that's so great. I am willing to be convinced...and I admit I probably have PTSD from those LeBron, Wade years.
Apologies coming across harder on you than I intended.
This feels right, it would take several catastrophic fuckups to not beat this team over 7 games.
All I ask is that the Celtics be ready to beat the zone which they figure to see a ton of in this series. Smart/Tatum at the FT line making plays as soon as they see it.
Adebayo looked really good against the Knicks. Hopefully the C's have a good plan for boxing him out and playing good D on him and Butler
edit: and Love has stepped up pretty well also
Mannnn. I have no idea why anyone thinks the Lakers are going to just beat the Nuggets so easily. Jokic has averaged 25/13/9 these playoffs. He's an absolute monster. I feel like those numbers basically underplay how good he's been. Murray, Porter, KCP... the Nuggets are better than the Lakers... but if Davis and LeBron are just on fire for 10 days they can win. But I don't get the resolute "Lakers are going to win", my dude.
Totally agree. And from the Celtics perspective, the Nuggets worry me way more than the Lakers, even though I fucking hate the Lakers.
2BIGZ fits in against EVERYBODY.
Time Lord isn't nearly the offensive liability people make him out to be. In fact, he's extremely efficient as a screener, roller, ball mover & 5th offensive option.
FWIW I'm terrified of the Heat. They're certainly not more talented than the Celtics but good lord Spo is an elite elite elite Coach and as much as I want CJM to be great, he's not Spo. Add in that the Heat will never play stupid, they won't commit dumb turnovers, and they are absolutely going to compete for every loose ball and every inch... man.
Based on talent alone, it should be 4-1 Celtics. I'm expecting 7 and I'm terrified to say that I think the Heat will win because they just have an enormous amount of confidence and skill.
Based on talent alone, it should be 4-1 Celtics. I'm expecting 7 and I'm terrified to say that I think the Heat will win because they just have an enormous amount of confidence and skill.
And the Celtics don't?
Edit: will be interesting to see if the C's figured something out over the last two games.. interested to see how the Heat react to Horford and Timelord playing together. Do think the Celts should use their depth to their advantage more this series.
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+1, would like elaboration on his talents/ abilities/ strategy/ in-game adjustments /etc. versus other coaches. What sets him apart?
That’s using the NFL convention of naming the conference championship after the year the season began in, rather than the actual calendar year the game took place in. Since in this list we don’t do that for the other team sports that span calendar years (NBA and NHL), it’s more accurate to say that 2001, 2006, and 2009 did not feature at least one Boston team in a conference championship game
So you're saying you're terrified?
It's always weird when people ascribe things to opposing teams but not our own. The Celtics have a ton of confidence in themselves, as evidenced by their ability to win an elimination game on the road, bounce back from a shaky 1st quarter in G7 and blow the other team out to finish them off. They've done that two postseasons in a row. As for skill, well - it was on full display today. I'll remind people we beat this Heat team last year. And before anyone brings up the Butler missed 3, it should have never gone to game 7 and I think most people know that. It was a serious growing pains series for the Cs against a tough team that won't beat itself.
So I have to ask, in this rematch: which team has gotten better, and which team is currently worse?
Oladipo was an important rotation player for them last year (5th in minutes and it seemed like he was the guy giving Jaylen trouble any time Brown drove into a set halfcourt defense), but losing Herro is really neither here nor there when comparing to last year's series. Herro played just 78 minutes in 4 games and was clearly still hurt, averaging under 10 points on abysmal shooting (.372 from the field and just 1-15 from 3).
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GY5YYbUvgXk
This video seems to indicate that Spo has been very good at teaching zone and switching back and forth between zone and man..keeping other teams off balance.
Also that he is good at identifying talent for his system..players who are undervalued by other teams.
It's an old story but came across Teague's retelling of the famous Jimmy Timberwolves practice and its hilarious.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT-6sroS-5o
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT-6sroS-5o
Spo gets the most out of the talent he coaches and that is really an understatement. His post-Lebron teams have performed well above their talent level, particularly in the playoffs. An easy way to see this is just through the lens of Jimmy Butler. Before Miami/Spo, butler’s teams were 2-7 in playoff series. While a couple of those early series maybe don’t count, Butler as the best player wasn’t successful in Chicago or Minnesota and wasn’t even successful in Philly on a very talented team. He’s now 7-3 in Miami, and the losses are to the ultimate champion (twice) and a finalist (once and in a tight seven game series).
Spo also went to 4 straight finals over the 4 years he coached an elite team, winning twice. So he’s proven he can win championships when he has the talent to do so. And Lebron can’t get all the credit. He left Miami and built a second super team in Cleveland which went to the finals another four years in a row but only won once.
If Spo weren't coaching the Heat, there's zero chance they'd be in this ECF. He's an all-timer.
That said.....the Heat and Celtics have played twice now in the ECF, and it's 1-1.
The Celtics lost with a one-legged Kemba, young JT/JB, an extremely limited Hayward, and no bigs.
Then the Cs won a series that should probably have been shorter, but in which they had more health/availability issues than people remember. Smart was banged up, White missed a game with his child's birth, Rob was in and out and somewhat limited, and then Tatum hurt his shoulder.
I respect the Heat a ton, and I wouldn't be shocked if this goes 7, or they win. But, even with Spo on the other sideline, this is the best-positioned that the Cs have been against Miami coming in to a series, by far.
That said.....the Heat and Celtics have played twice now in the ECF, and it's 1-1.
The Celtics lost with a one-legged Kemba, young JT/JB, an extremely limited Hayward, and no bigs.
Then the Cs won a series that should probably have been shorter, but in which they had more health/availability issues than people remember. Smart was banged up, White missed a game with his child's birth, Rob was in and out and somewhat limited, and then Tatum hurt his shoulder.
I respect the Heat a ton, and I wouldn't be shocked if this goes 7, or they win. But, even with Spo on the other sideline, this is the best-positioned that the Cs have been against Miami coming in to a series, by far.
The Celtics were 2-2 vs the Heat this year with Miami winning the last two games (something I expect to hear from Doris multiple times)
The 2 losses were of the tight variety:
G4 (Jan. 24) loss in Miami 98-95. 2nd night of a road back-to-back. Boston played without Horford, Smart & Brown (started JT/Pritchard/ White/TL/Grant). Miami played without Butler. Bam scored 30, but it was some G-Leaguer, Haywood Highsmith who went 4-4 from 3s that buried Boston in Q4 (when the Celtics scored 13pts).
G3 (Dec 2) loss at home 120-116 (OT) after Boston handled them by 13 a few nights earlier.
The one stat to keep an eye on for Boston against Miami is TURNOVERS
G1 19
G2 17
G3 20
G4 17
Obviously, live ball turnovers at the top that turn into runouts are the most detrimental play in the NBA. I'd avoid letting Brown run the offense from the top in the halfcourt. Miami will be waiting for that action and will send multiple ballhawks at JB to blow that action up. Let Marcus, Brogdon, White, and even less so Tatum get them into action. It's going to be a chess match with Spoelstra playing plenty of zone defense.
The 2 losses were of the tight variety:
G4 (Jan. 24) loss in Miami 98-95. 2nd night of a road back-to-back. Boston played without Horford, Smart & Brown (started JT/Pritchard/ White/TL/Grant). Miami played without Butler. Bam scored 30, but it was some G-Leaguer, Haywood Highsmith who went 4-4 from 3s that buried Boston in Q4 (when the Celtics scored 13pts).
G3 (Dec 2) loss at home 120-116 (OT) after Boston handled them by 13 a few nights earlier.
The one stat to keep an eye on for Boston against Miami is TURNOVERS
G1 19
G2 17
G3 20
G4 17
Obviously, live ball turnovers at the top that turn into runouts are the most detrimental play in the NBA. I'd avoid letting Brown run the offense from the top in the halfcourt. Miami will be waiting for that action and will send multiple ballhawks at JB to blow that action up. Let Marcus, Brogdon, White, and even less so Tatum get them into action. It's going to be a chess match with Spoelstra playing plenty of zone defense.
I watched a bit of the NYK series and yes Bam played great but NYK didn't really have a great matchup for him and were focusin a lot of attention on Butler. MIA didn't have anyone to guard Brunson; are they going to be able to guard both JT and JB?
Also, Love shot .316 from the field; .714 from FT line and (most importantly) .241 from 3Pagainst NYK. I also don't think he's going to be playable on defense.
D'oh!
I think many of the games will simply come down to whether the Celtics’ secondary players hit their threes. The Heat will blitz Tatum a lot and play zone and do all kinds of things to keep Tatum and Brown from scoring. Be prepared for lots of 3PA from Marcus. The good news is that the Celtics should be able to play Brogdon a lot, which could be a big difference from before when they faced them. If White is also able to play well, it’ll be a short series.
I have to imagine that Bucks fans were saying the same thing when they drew the Heat in round 1. The Heat are a good, tough team. If they get some breaks and variance falls in their favor, they are good enough to beat the Celtics in a 7 game series.
I would also disagree that this Celtics team is more consistent. They have a lot of ups and downs. They are a team that relies on the 3 which can introduce more natural variance. And they can get careless with the ball - those high TO games let anyone play with them during the regular season at times.
I'm interested to see whether they stay double-big, and whether it works.
Miami doesn't have anything like an Embiid, and if Rob helps that much, Miami has the shooting to make Boston pay.
I could see the White starting lineup coming back relatively fast as an adjustment. I also wonder whether Hauser is playable in non-Butler minutes.
The thing here, to me, is that once Giannis came back, the Bucks severely outplayed the Heat in quarters 1-3 both times. Like "this is obviously a 1 vs. 8 seed" outplayed. The consecutive Bucks collapses were two of the worst I've seen in awhile, but if Giannis had been healthy, this would have been an entirely different series.
Last year at least, Rob was Bam kryptonite. Bam couldn’t do anything unless Rob was off the floor, which he was a lot because he wasn’t healthy. The game where Bam had 32 points, Rob missed. This year, Rob is at least arguably available and healthy for the duration. To me, that suggests 2BIGZ with Bam struggling again leaving it to Jimmy Buckets.
Variance aside, I expect the Celtics to win this series, possibly in 5 games, likely 6.
I didn't want to see the Heat in round 1, but I'm okay with them in the ECF. The Heat without Herro and Oladipo is about as good a matchup as we could've hoped for in the ECF a month or so ago.
I'll stand by my prediction, that if both teams play equally hard, the Celtics should win in 5 or 6. The 76ers are better than the Heat, and the Celtics should've beaten them in 6. In their four wins, the Celts beat the 76ers by an average 19.75 points; in their 3 wins, the 76ers only won by an average 5.67 points.
The advantage of playing the Heat in the ECF vs. the first round is the Celtics shouldn't come into this series too cocky; they've seen now how the Heat has pulled off a Cinderella run. This Heat team has proved it's scrappy, and good. I just don't think they're good enough.
I'll stand by my prediction, that if both teams play equally hard, the Celtics should win in 5 or 6. The 76ers are better than the Heat, and the Celtics should've beaten them in 6. In their four wins, the Celts beat the 76ers by an average 19.75 points; in their 3 wins, the 76ers only won by an average 5.67 points.
The advantage of playing the Heat in the ECF vs. the first round is the Celtics shouldn't come into this series too cocky; they've seen now how the Heat has pulled off a Cinderella run. This Heat team has proved it's scrappy, and good. I just don't think they're good enough.
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