Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
had a great stretch tonight, some real lapses as usually, but a much better stretch as we pulled away, and a lot more active. That to me is the key... he's not going to learn off-ball defense in the next 2 days, but coming out active and engaged on-ball, and at least having great energy will be a huge benefit
Was just about to post that. Weird time to post that complaint since Jaylen was really good on defense today.
today was actually like a bizarro Jaylen. Couldn’t shoot, didn’t score much, but did a very good job playmaking and on defense.
I'd love to see more of that, his defense on Harden was key against the Sixers. Favorite play of the night though was Grant stuffing Butler, and even managing to keep his mouth shut afterwards.
So in that last minute of garbage time, we got cutaways of Alex Rodriguez biting his lip, and grimacing Derek Jeter (As ever). That they both decided to show up tonight thinking they'd see a nice easy preordained sweep of the Celtics, called in some favors to get courtside seats... and to instead send them home to probably lie awake half the night thinking of that week 18 1/2 years ago, hearing the phrase "Boston avoids the sweep" echo through what passes for their brains as they toss and turn, is already some measure of recompense for us.
But I'd prefer to think that they're our good luck charms, that as long as they're a part of some Boston sporting event, the sporting gods will never favor our opponents. And I hope they show up 3 more times in this series.
edit: oh, and did you hear what the 3-point makes were, from the announcers as those last seconds ticked down? "19 to 8 advantage", they said. A fateful tally for us if there ever was one.
But I'd prefer to think that they're our good luck charms, that as long as they're a part of some Boston sporting event, the sporting gods will never favor our opponents. And I hope they show up 3 more times in this series.
edit: oh, and did you hear what the 3-point makes were, from the announcers as those last seconds ticked down? "19 to 8 advantage", they said. A fateful tally for us if there ever was one.
Last edited:
my biggest concern going into game 5 is that his shot just looks broken, probably an injury thing, but that's tough.
The reverse sweep of Miami would be unbelievable. If Boston locks in for Game 5, I have no doubt they could go back to Miami and get a win, like they did 3x last season.
Beats dead horse update: Celtics use 24 personal fouls and turn over Miami 15 times, and lo and behold hold Miami to 44% shooting and 25% from three (and 99 points).
The headline is "Tatum drops 34 as Celtics win game 4". But it should be "hey, Celtics are better than Miami when they actually fucking try."
The headline is "Tatum drops 34 as Celtics win game 4". But it should be "hey, Celtics are better than Miami when they actually fucking try."
I couldn't help thinking similar. They brought their 2004 juju with them tonight.
Cowboy up.
In the game chat at halftime, I mentioned that in this series, the Celtics hadn’t yet played one solid stint of Celtics basketball, where they lock in and get stops, and move the ball to pile up threes and layups. They picked the right time to finally lock in, three and a half games into the series. If they can lay a run like that on the Heat to start Game 5, Miami is going to start turtling.
Miami is not going to want to have a game six, even in South Beach. They are likely to view this as a do or die game just because of the potential swing in series momentum. Expect them to Heat Culture the hell out of the next one.
Unless we are up by 50, I don't think turtling is on the table with this Heat team.
Spo also had this gem of a quote
“They probably won the FT battle”
28 FTs for the Heat, 18 for the Celtics. Nice try Spo
Their undrafted guys didn’t exactly respond Heat-Culturely once Boston made their run. Bam also tightened up.
For all this Heat Culture talk, they haven’t won a title in a decade, got busted out in the Finals in the bubble, losing three Finals games by double figures, got swept by the Bucks two seasons ago, and dropped three ECF games including a home Game 7 last year. Come into Boston and close out the series, and I’ll begrudgingly respect them.
Being down 0-3 is tough. But down 1-3? Much , much easier now.
"NBA teams have overcome 1-3 deficits 13 times, only one of which occurred in the NBA Finals."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_teams_to_overcome_3–1_series_deficits#:~:text=NBA teams have overcome 1,overcome a 3–0 deficit.&text=The Celtics won two games,also won the NBA Finals.
"NBA teams have overcome 1-3 deficits 13 times, only one of which occurred in the NBA Finals."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_teams_to_overcome_3–1_series_deficits#:~:text=NBA teams have overcome 1,overcome a 3–0 deficit.&text=The Celtics won two games,also won the NBA Finals.
That was my 2004 fan mindset. Win game 4, some teams come back 3-1. Then win game 5,lots of teams come back 3-2. Game 7 put CHB out there.
And failed 21 times. So comebacks are at a 35% clip, or a shade above Marcus Smart’s 3pt%.
I’ll take it though. You never know with Marcus…
I'm going into game five fully expecting them to get blown out again. Win that, then it gets interesting.
This. It's funny to see people talk about "shooting variance" when the Celtics are out there blocking multiple Heat 3s, fighting over screens, competing with Butler 1-on-1.
Also I don't think there was really any coaching adjustment except "do the same shit and do it way harder, with purpose." Notably, when they do that, all of Spo's coaching genius and cute little zones look a lot less impressive.
If you look hard enough, it's always easy to find something to complain about.
White played the first 8 minutes of the first quarter until both he and Marcus were subbed. In the 2nd quarter, White played all but the last 2 minutes, when Grant was put in. Smart had sat most of the 2nd already. White played the entire 3rd and was pulled for Smart 3 minutes into the final quarter with the Celtics holding 9 point lead. And the Celtics were never really threatened anytime after that, so no real reason to put him back in during the latter part of the 4th.
White's never been a big minutes guy in his career, so 27-28 mpg is probably what you can expect.
Simplistic but 15 turnovers in the 3 Ls, 10 in the W. They keep it to 10 in games 5-7 and they’re winning the series.
JB and Malcolm didn’t have big games. But seeing them making the extra pass over driving the ball into traffic, it was clear the whole team shifted its mindset to ball movement. That JB assist to Rob underneath was a beautiful pass. I’m pretty sure they only had 2 turnovers in second half. On defense, seeing Grant block Jimmy was a play that stood out in my mind. He was trying to take the game over and Boston played him tough.
Miami will certainly make adjustments and they might have been shocked to see the Celtics come out and play so much better on both sides of the ball. But keeping playing like this and they have a chance.
Miami will certainly make adjustments and they might have been shocked to see the Celtics come out and play so much better on both sides of the ball. But keeping playing like this and they have a chance.
That's the difference to me, and that they were more consistent about looking for transition after turnovers and missed baskets. They are a good transition team, both athletically and in decision making. Halfcourt offense against a disciplined defense can be a different story. So the team identify needs to be defense and transition.
There was a point in the 4th where they seemed to be slipping into milk the clock mode and Miami looked like it would cut into the lead, and then Smart pushed the ball and Jaylen got an and-one. That's wnat they need to do.
Lol, they dominated the 4th, Mazzulla found something with Grant, and you're complaining?
Coaching really is a thankless job. Mazz killed it, both in lineup flexibility and getting the players ready to play.
The way to beat Miami's zone - and I think Boston only ran this action one time that I can recall - is to have Tatum flash to the middle at the foul line. He can make that shot all day long, and he's become a good enough passer to be able to kick it out to an open guy if they collapse on him, or, if Adebayo comes from the restricted area to challenge him, dump it down to a teammate for a dunk/layup. The one time they ran it he took a wide open foul line jumper and drained it. Why they don't run that action and surround him with three shooters and Rob (for dunks) is beyond me. It would dice up that zone. Like teams dice up SU's 2-3 that way.
-sigh-
Also, it wasn't just a matter of the Celtics TRYING last night, though they certainly did that. Look at the open shots that Miami had and just missed, compared with them making those at a ridiculous percentage in the first three games. Heck, Butler missed at least 3-4 mid range jumpers that he almost ALWAYS makes, and he even missed two layups.
The teams are pretty evenly matched when both are playing well. Effort has a lot to do with it, but so does...whether the ball goes in or not. Not completely a "make or miss" league, but it really is...kinda. First three games, Boston missed and Miami made. Last night, Boston made and Miami missed. We need three more of those.
-sigh-
Also, it wasn't just a matter of the Celtics TRYING last night, though they certainly did that. Look at the open shots that Miami had and just missed, compared with them making those at a ridiculous percentage in the first three games. Heck, Butler missed at least 3-4 mid range jumpers that he almost ALWAYS makes, and he even missed two layups.
The teams are pretty evenly matched when both are playing well. Effort has a lot to do with it, but so does...whether the ball goes in or not. Not completely a "make or miss" league, but it really is...kinda. First three games, Boston missed and Miami made. Last night, Boston made and Miami missed. We need three more of those.
Yeah, I’m not a Mazz fan but he obviously coached a great game last night. Pulled a lot of the right lineup levers, called timeouts at the right times, drew up actual plays that worked after TOS, etc…
Regarding the action I just described above, here it is:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8kpZDCrjXg
The play happens at the 6:49 mark of this clip.
Here's a still:
If Vincent had dropped down, White would have been open for a three. Even as it is, Horford has inside position against Lowry in case Tatum misses. It's a gorgeous little set and they can run that all game long against the zone.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8kpZDCrjXg
The play happens at the 6:49 mark of this clip.
Here's a still:
If Vincent had dropped down, White would have been open for a three. Even as it is, Horford has inside position against Lowry in case Tatum misses. It's a gorgeous little set and they can run that all game long against the zone.
Yes, and Spo also recognized that the Cs could run it all day long: Miami stopped zoning soon after that shot. It may even have been the very next possession.
Miami's 3s can be viewed at the link below. They definitely missed some looks they were making, but the Celtics had much, much better contests in general, even when it looked like guys were out of the play. That also led to the multiple blocks they had on 3s.
It's a make or miss league, but that extra 5% effort can swing a lot of makes to misses, at the margin. These were mostly not clean spot-up looks off penetration for Miami. They were mostly off perimeter action, or self-created.
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FG3A&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042200304&PlayerID=0&RangeType=0&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612748&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game
It's a make or miss league, but that extra 5% effort can swing a lot of makes to misses, at the margin. These were mostly not clean spot-up looks off penetration for Miami. They were mostly off perimeter action, or self-created.
https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FG3A&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042200304&PlayerID=0&RangeType=0&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612748&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game
The only game where shooting variance truly made a difference was Game 2, where in the 4th quarter Miami saw some difficult shots go in while the Celtics had some routine ones miss. Of course, it makes a difference in that we would all take the series being tied 2-2 right now.
There was another small moment in the 4th, game pretty much in hand but not quite, when the defense got sloppy and no one picked up Butler full court and he ran straight down the lane for a dunk. Both Jays were getting back to protect the basket, just to turn for a front row view of Jimmy at the rim. Both immediately looked pissed and started barking at the guards who should've picked him up.
Small moment like I said, but it was nice to see, even with the win % probably at 99.5, that there was defensive accountability coming down from the top 2.
EDIT: At 8:15 in the highlight video above.
Last edited:
So it begs the question (is that the right use of this phrase? I need a ruling): Why didn't Boston run this at all the first three games, when the zone was giving them fits? It's like..... the fundamentals of beating a 2-3 zone - get the ball to a good shooter/distributor at the foul line and it opens up all kinds of options. Boston has an elite guy like that in Tatum and they never did this until last night that one time. It's not a coaching genius move to run this....it's literally a basic 2-3 zone busting concept that you learn in middle school. And it WORKS at all levels. So why didn't Boston try it until last night?
100% PUSH THE PACE
You don't have to take an ill-advised shot just because you hustle getting the ball into the front court. But push the pace and get into your action quickly. Just by pushing the pace you open up options before Miami can set up its defense, and if there's not a good look there, fine, you initiate your half court offense. But it has the added benefit of making Miami WORK, and I think Boston has better depth - especially if Vincent's ankle acts up tomorrow night.
Work hard on defense.
Push the pace on offense.
Against Miami's zone, get Tatum the ball at the foul line.
On D, if Butler gets a screen 30 feet from the hoop, don't switch; just go under the screen and invite him to chuck Steph Curry-range three pointers.
On O against Miami's M2M, once you run a good screen for Brown or Tatum, clear out that side of the floor and give them room to work one-on-one.
Also....if Tatum gets matched up against a smaller guy...dude, just go right to the block and post up, shoot 8-footers right over him all night long.
This. Isn't. Really. That. Complicated.
There have been a total of 150 playoff series to go 3-0/0-3. Of those:
92 finished in a sweep (61.3%)
44 finished in Game 5 (29.3%)
11 finished in Game 6 (7.3%)
3 finished in Game 7 (2%)
As we all know, the leading team has won all of those 150 matchups.
Additionally, only 26 of those 150 series have occurred in the conference finals.
In all cases between 2011-2023, the Conference Finals 3-0 leader-to-series winner have been by the favorite. The last upset? Celtics over Magic in 2010.
What I’m saying is that we’re in a very rare circumstance where the higher ranked team is down in the conference finals.
I haven’t finished scanning but I’m unsure if there has ever been a 8th ranked team to take a 3-0 lead in the Conference Finals.
92 finished in a sweep (61.3%)
44 finished in Game 5 (29.3%)
11 finished in Game 6 (7.3%)
3 finished in Game 7 (2%)
As we all know, the leading team has won all of those 150 matchups.
Additionally, only 26 of those 150 series have occurred in the conference finals.
In all cases between 2011-2023, the Conference Finals 3-0 leader-to-series winner have been by the favorite. The last upset? Celtics over Magic in 2010.
What I’m saying is that we’re in a very rare circumstance where the higher ranked team is down in the conference finals.
I haven’t finished scanning but I’m unsure if there has ever been a 8th ranked team to take a 3-0 lead in the Conference Finals.
Last edited:
They made it through the Great Filter of 3-0s, and now things can get interesting.
Looked to me like there was a strong emphasis on not biting on the pump fakes. Butler seemed to settle for passing out of his sweet spot several times because his series of fakes didn't work and of course there was the Grant block.
Yea. And they usually go to zone when Tatum sits. Fortunately he shouldn’t sit much from here in on out.
Al Horford can also break the zone by getting the ball in the middle. For the most part, I don't understand what the struggle is, either - and it has been a year-long struggle. There was one situation earlier in the series where Miami took advantage of the personnel to shut down the Celtics with zone - this was a point where they had a lineup without Jayson, Al, or Smart in game 2. But usually the zone seems to works even though the Celitcs have the personnel on the court to break it. Maybe they have too much temptation to just try to shoot over it.
Right. Even if you push and then reset into halfcourt, you might have caused a mismatch that can be exploited. When you walk it up slow against no pressure, the defenders get to dictate the matchups.
I was half listening to Karalis' podcast this morning, and he brought up a defense of the Celtic penchant for taking early clock threes. I'm not sure who he attributed it to, but the argument for taking early clock shots was "the defense gets tougher as the clock winds down."
That premise, though, is actually an indictment of the Celtics half court offense, because they have so many slow-developing possessions where they spend 10 to 15 seconds just pounding the ball running time off the clock.
The halfcourt offense is deeply flawed, so it needs to be defense and transition that carries the team, as it did last night.
All of the teams to push it to game 7--and then lose--have been visitors in game 7. Goes to show that the higher seed seldom gets in this situation.
They need Horford in while Tatum is on the bench, because he, too, can break the zone.