Celtics vs 76ers, Round 2 Discussion

[jezza1918]

I know I'm biased, because I love Jaylen and think he's criminally underused on offense, but every 5th post in these threads has some sort of swipe at Jaylen, who IMO, has probably been the best player on the floor for the C's in the playoffs in the majority of the games.

Looked up some quick advanced stats in playoffs for Brown and Tatum:
Win Shares: .9 JB/1.5 JT
WS/48 .109 JB/.148 JT
VORP .4 JB/ .7 JT
ORat 110 JB/118 JT
DRat 111 JB/ 112 JT
So in totality it seems Tatum has been better. That said, while I dont have the time to do some kind of game by game breakdown, my eye test agrees with your statement. Or maybe JB has been the more consistent guy? Either way agree that he's been underused on the offensive end once the 2nd Q starts pretty much every game.

 

[NomarsFool]

If I'm Joe, I put Grant in the starting lineup and tell him to put Harden on his ass the first few drives into the lane.

Harden is on his ass every drive and jump shot all on his own

 

[Cellar-Door]

The defense got worse this year because their best defenders are either declining due to age (smart, horford) or injury (timelord). Putting it on joe is a bit much in my opinion.

also for all the 'got worse" it dropped from 2nd to 3rd. Offense is way up across the league, the #1 team this year's Drtg would have clocked in at 12th last year.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Looked up some quick advanced stats in playoffs for Brown and Tatum:
Win Shares: .9 JB/1.5 JT
WS/48 .109 JB/.148 JT
VORP .4 JB/ .7 JT
ORat 110 JB/118 JT
DRat 111 JB/ 112 JT
So in totality it seems Tatum has been better. That said, while I dont have the time to do some kind of game by game breakdown, my eye test agrees with your statement. Or maybe JB has been the more consistent guy? Either way agree that he's been underused on the offensive end once the 2nd Q starts pretty much every game.

Tatum has been consistently better there shouldn't really be a question on this. He's scoring more on decently similar efficiency, drawing more fouls, shooting much better at the line, rebounding at a much higher level, creating significantly more for teammates, and turning it over less frequently. Now, this series it's been tighter than the Hawks, but yeah Tatum is clearly been the better performer.... AS HE SHOULD BE... he's a guy who was on the MVP shortlist, Jaylen is a borderline All-NBA guy.

 

[jezza1918]

Tatum has been consistently better there shouldn't really be a question on this. He's scoring more on decently similar efficiency, drawing more fouls, shooting much better at the line, rebounding at a much higher level, creating significantly more for teammates, and turning it over less frequently. Now, this series it's been tighter than the Hawks, but yeah Tatum is clearly been the better performer.... AS HE SHOULD BE... he's a guy who was on the MVP shortlist, Jaylen is a borderline All-NBA guy.

Yup that all tracks. Thanks. I think I most likely just watch with too critical of an eye towards Tatum (despite the fact that I stick up for him pretty much every chance I can on here).

edit: well, stick up for his future self, at the very least

 

[Auger34]

Yup that all tracks. Thanks. I think I most likely just watch with too critical of an eye towards Tatum (despite the fact that I stick up for him pretty much every chance I can on here).

edit: well, stick up for his future self, at the very least

I think you should re-read the post that you responded to originally (with the statistical breakdown) and then realize the irony of this post…

 

[bakahump]

I am not sure how the NBA lets you beat Embiid.
Dont get me wrong I am not saying there is a fix. Nor am I saying that the Refs are doing anything different then they did all year.
(We can certainly quibble on if they should have allowed this all year.... but the Celts and every other team know....)
If the Refs are going to let Embiid go to the line 12+ times a game then there is no way they can lose this series.
I do find it interesting that the ticky tack fouls are still going Embiids way while his blocks (and body contact that happens before and during the shot) are being allowed. Not sure those were in the regular season.

I thought the playoffs were supposed to be a different more physical game. It certainly is for celtic drives to the paint. Not so much for Embiid down on the block.
I also freely admit that Harden has also had some physical non calls.

 

[jezza1918]

I think you should re-read the post that you responded to originally (with the statistical breakdown) and then realize the irony of this post…

Sorry, long day (four zoom calls about wastewater permits, yay), and I'm honestly not sure what you're getting at. I love Tatum, but admittedly watch him very critically in a way I don't other players (which is why my eye test said JB had be better. My eye test failed). But I also firmly believe that we haven't yet reached his peak (hence why I get frustrated with the "he will never be The Man" talk).

 

[Auger34]

Sorry, long day (four zoom calls about wastewater permits, yay), and I'm honestly not sure what you're getting at. I love Tatum, but admittedly watch him very critically in a way I don't other players (which is why my eye test said JB had be better. My eye test failed). But I also firmly believe that we haven't yet reached his peak (hence why I get frustrated with the "he will never be The Man" talk).

Sorry, I actually misread your original post. You said “I watch too critically” and I thought it said “we”
If it said we i just thought it was funny that the original post that you responded to was saying that Jaylen is underrated and oft criticized around here while Jayson isn’t criticized much at all.

 

[Auger34]

Tatum has been consistently better there shouldn't really be a question on this. He's scoring more on decently similar efficiency, drawing more fouls, shooting much better at the line, rebounding at a much higher level, creating significantly more for teammates, and turning it over less frequently. Now, this series it's been tighter than the Hawks, but yeah Tatum is clearly been the better performer.... AS HE SHOULD BE... he's a guy who was on the MVP shortlist, Jaylen is a borderline All-NBA guy.

Brown has been a better scorer in the playoffs. Much, much more efficient (Brown is 55.3/47.5 while Tatum is 45.4/33.3) and is averaging only 1.64 points less per game.

Tatum’s biggest edge over Brown in the playoffs is his rebounding (about 5.37 more per game) and assists (about 1.84 more per game). All the other stats are very similar.

I think it’s a pretty fair question to ask, over this 11 game sample size, who has been better. Personally, I learn towards Tatum because of the shot creation for his teammates. However, that difference in efficiency, particularly with the 3 ball, is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[slamminsammya]

I am not sure how the NBA lets you beat Embiid.
Dont get me wrong I am not saying there is a fix. Nor am I saying that the Refs are doing anything different then they did all year.
(We can certainly quibble on if they should have allowed this all year.... but the Celts and every other team know....)
If the Refs are going to let Embiid go to the line 12+ times a game then there is no way they can lose this series.
I do find it interesting that the ticky tack fouls are still going Embiids way while his blocks (and body contact that happens before and during the shot) are being allowed. Not sure those were in the regular season.

I thought the playoffs were supposed to be a different more physical game. It certainly is for celtic drives to the paint. Not so much for Embiid down on the block.
I also freely admit that Harden has also had some physical non calls.

Aside from a few conspicuous flops I've thought most of the foul calls embiid gets are obvious fouls and conversely i haven't seen many instances of him getting a generous whistle defensively. The guy is a legit rim protector who doesn't need to foul to block shots.

 

[ManicCompression]

Brown has been a better scorer in the playoffs. Much, much more efficient (Brown is 55.3/47.5 while Tatum is 45.4/33.3) and is averaging only 1.64 points less per game.

Tatum’s biggest edge over Brown in the playoffs is his rebounding (about 5.37 more per game) and assists (about 1.84 more per game). All the other stats are very similar.

I think it’s a pretty fair question to ask, over this 11 game sample size, who has been better. Personally, I learn towards Tatum because of the shot creation for his teammates. However, that difference in efficiency, particularly with the 3 ball, is nothing to sneeze at.

Is Brown getting the same defensive attention as Tatum? From my eye, it seems like no, but happy to hear if others are seeing different

 

[Auger34]

Is Brown getting the same defensive attention as Tatum? From my eye, it seems like no, but happy to hear if others are seeing different

I think Tatum does get more attention for sure. I would guess that I think it’s closer than others.

I think I kind of addressed that with the creating for teammates portion as well? Tatum draws more defensive attention and can create more for teammates.

I don’t think that changes my overall point

 

[Cellar-Door]

Brown has been a better scorer in the playoffs. Much, much more efficient (Brown is 55.3/47.5 while Tatum is 45.4/33.3) and is averaging only 1.64 points less per game.

Tatum’s biggest edge over Brown in the playoffs is his rebounding (about 5.37 more per game) and assists (about 1.84 more per game). All the other stats are very similar.

I think it’s a pretty fair question to ask, over this 11 game sample size, who has been better. Personally, I learn towards Tatum because of the shot creation for his teammates. However, that difference in efficiency, particularly with the 3 ball, is nothing to sneeze at.

i think raw % is not a good metric... efficiency difference is bigger than I thought (.637 TS vs. .577) so I'll grant he's been the better scorer.
As to the rest, the rebounding is huge not just the raw numbers but a 15.2 vs 7.8 rate (only TL is rebounding at a better rate), 20 to 14.8 on assist rate, 9.2 vs 13.5 on turnover rate, despite a bit higher usage. Jaylen is maybe the better scorer (though #1 options are often a bit less efficient due to defense) but otherwise Tatum has been clearly better across the board. Sample is probably too small but the advanced metrics all have him much higher

 

[teddykgb]

We may be seeing with Tatum what a team built around Pippen in his prime might have looked like. So much of Tatums value and talent is in his all around game and he’s a heck of a scorer but the variance and ability to slow and at times shut him down means he needs his teammates more than other traditional stars

 

[Jimbodandy]

Aside from a few conspicuous flops I've thought most of the foul calls embiid gets are obvious fouls and conversely i haven't seen many instances of him getting a generous whistle defensively. The guy is a legit rim protector who doesn't need to foul to block shots.

This is true. Problem is other guys not getting calls that guys like Embiid does get. Many players know how to draw fouls effectively. But it's also rep. Bad luck to have two of the top generational FT generating talent on one opponent.

 

[JakeRae]

Brown has been a better scorer in the playoffs. Much, much more efficient (Brown is 55.3/47.5 while Tatum is 45.4/33.3) and is averaging only 1.64 points less per game.

Tatum’s biggest edge over Brown in the playoffs is his rebounding (about 5.37 more per game) and assists (about 1.84 more per game). All the other stats are very similar.

I think it’s a pretty fair question to ask, over this 11 game sample size, who has been better. Personally, I learn towards Tatum because of the shot creation for his teammates. However, that difference in efficiency, particularly with the 3 ball, is nothing to sneeze at.

Tatum has been better at every aspect of the game except scoring efficiency, where Brown admittedly has a large edge. Tatum is rebounding at twice the rate Brown is, creating assists 30% more often, blocking shots at three times the rate Brown is, turning the ball over 30% less often, etc. This isn’t a slight to Brown. He’s been good these playoffs, but there really isn’t a close comparison of their overall contributions to winning.

That said, Jaylen is probably closer to performing at the level he needs to for this team to win a championship than Tatum is. Tatum needs to play like a top 5 player, and he’s playing more like a top 20 player, and that is why the Celtics have been struggling. In contrast, Jaylen needs to play like a top 20 player and is maybe playing like a top 30 player, which isn’t really a huge difference. The team can also largely cover for Jaylen when he isn’t his best because we have a lot of very good players. There is no one who can cover for Tatum because we only have one guy who can play at a super star level.

I think this is also part of the reason people sometimes get down on Tatum. When he struggles it really stands out because this team needs him to be be elite, not just very good. He’s been the best Celtic but he hasn’t been who we need him to be.

Before others complain about perceived hypocrisy between this and my defenses of Tatum, I want to make clear that I have defended Tatum against hyperbolic claims that he has been awful/terrible/etc. He hasn’t. That doesn’t mean he has been as good as he can be and as we need him to be. He hasn’t been that either. He has two games now where he needs to show up at that level or his summer is going to start a month early.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Tatum is clearly a better rebounder than Brown but it is also his only job on the defensive end in this series. Tatum stands halfway to the corner toward Tucker and can go grab a rebound. Brown is chasing around Harden and has other responsibilities.

 

[Humphrey]

That’s a great point. I had forgotten about White but he’s another barometer…..and the fact that I forgot about him probably helps explain the loss last night.

White needs to be confident and let it rip. Do all of the small things that he was so great at in the regular season.

I wish the game was tonight, I’m ready to see what this team has when it’s back is truly against the wall

I wonder if something's wrong with White that they're not revealing, he was too good for too long to play this "meh".

 

[ManicCompression]

I think Tatum does get more attention for sure. I would guess that I think it’s closer than others.

I think I kind of addressed that with the creating for teammates portion as well? Tatum draws more defensive attention and can create more for teammates.

I don’t think that changes my overall point

I'd imagine anyone getting more defensive attention would be less efficient (but better at setting up teammates, as you note). I just think the efficiency stats are lying a little bit due to the different roles these guys are filling and what the Sixers are forcing them to do with the ball.

 

[jablo1312]

Wouldn't hate to see a little more of the 2 bigs lineups tomorrow. I know people say it kills their spacing and that Rob isn't 100%, but w/ the Jays and Marcus/DW/Brogdon out there they'll still have 4 shooters on the floor and a vertical lob threat near hte rim. On offense Rob still sucks in a big on drives- either it's Embiid lurking with him and the rim is opened up a bit for drivers, or its tucker/Harris who he can get higher than. If the Celtics don't want to rely on the variance of 3 point shooting, they need to generate a larger share of shots at the rim and free throws. That's almost impossible with Embiid loitering near the rim.

It hasn't always been the prettiest but Tatum and Brown have both shown they beat every Philly perimeter defender off the dribble. Melton has gotten his hands on some balls but Tatum can go through him and Brown around him. Harris is stout and both guys can go around him. Harden the same but slower. The Celtic's been leveraging this to unlock 3's; for those that want them to stop launching 3's all day and attack the rim, I'd argue they need to avoid driving headfirst into Embiid which requires very difficult finishing.

Obviously part of the success of this setup on offense lies in Horford making a few open 3's and forcing Philly to guard him. And if he can't then I think we need to see a bit more Grant. He committed a few dumb fouls yesterday but he plays hard on D and can spread the floor on offense. I'm still not totally sure why he's been basically excised for large stretches of the playoffs but he can give you something on offense.On defense stash him on PJ, utilize Tatum's defense elsewhere, and play the Horford-Brown D vs. Harden/Embiid PnR.

 

[Auger34]

View: https://twitter.com/ta1297/status/1656420693087514627?s=46&t=Yv-0viabFQl7Lk7DrSRbBA


This is a problem…and it matches the eye test. For whatever reason, Jayson loves to slowly jog the ball up. We’ve seen CJM tell him to hurry up…he needs to do that on his own going forward. This team is so much better when they move fast

 

[the moops]

Jaylen is a borderline All-NBA guy.

Take that back.

Jaylen is a fucking 2nd team All-NBA guy

 

[tims4wins]

I say this only partially in jest but maybe this will loosen up the Jays.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Tatum has been better at every aspect of the game except scoring efficiency, where Brown admittedly has a large edge. Tatum is rebounding at twice the rate Brown is, creating assists 30% more often, blocking shots at three times the rate Brown is, turning the ball over 30% less often, etc. This isn’t a slight to Brown. He’s been good these playoffs, but there really isn’t a close comparison of their overall contributions to winning.

Again, can't most of these stats, except turnover rate be tied to their usage?

Tatum is literally not being asked to play defense. They are using him as their second big, protecting the corner for PJ Tucker and the like, so of course, he's going to gobble up rebounds. Jaylen is being asked to guard Harden and Maxey at the top of the key, chasing them around the court, going around screens, he's the guy leaking out, not the guy cleaning up misses on the defensive end. Put Jaylen in the corner on Tucker, and put Tatum out at the top of the key, and what happens to those rebounding numbers?

As for assists, Brown is never going to be a distributor, but he also isn't being asked to, except in the moments when Tatum isn't on the floor, and even then, he's usually always paired with 2 other guards. Jaylen's USG% in these playoffs is down to 27.6% from 31.4% in the regular season. Same thing has happened now in 3 consecutive post-seasons. In 2021 playoffs, Jaylen's USG% dropped from 29.7 to 23.7 in the playoffs, and last year, it dropped from 30.5 to 26.9. This year, I'll bet his USG% after the 1st quarter is really low compared to normal. Tatum's usage has also dropped in the past 2 years in the playoffs (it went up to 33.3% in 2021 during the playoffs) from 32.1 and 32.7 to 29.6 both last year and this season.

Where does most of the usage Jaylen and Jayson go from the regular season to the playoffs, you ask. Well, Marcus Smart of course.

2021: 18.4-20.7
2022: 18.3-21.2
2023: 17.8-21.7

In Game 4, Tatum finished with 24 points (on 9/20 and 1/6), 18 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 blocks. Everyone was loving his second half. They lost by 1. In the first half, he was 1/9 from the field, had 2 points, 9 boards, 2 assists and 2 blocks. In the 1st half, Jaylen was 7/11, had 16 points, 3 rebounds and an assist, and was the C's were even when he was on the court, while Tatum was -6. In the 2nd half, Tatum was +9 and Jaylen was +6. Did Tatum really do more to contribute to winning that game, or did he do more to get them to close to winning, because he dug them a hole that only Jaylen kept from being a blowout? Jaylen's usage in the first half was 27.7%. In the 2nd half, when they made him go stand in the corner, his usage was 13.2%. It's going to be hard to put up any type of numbers when you don't see the ball. Jaylen's 2nd half usage was the 6th most on the team. That's criminal.

In Game 5, when Brown only went 4/6 for 10 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in the 1st half, and had a -1, did he do more or less than Tatum who went 3/11, but finished 15 points (8 from the line), 5 boards and 3 assists, but the team was a -14 with him on the floor? Jaylen's usage in the 3rd quarter last night, the quarter that effectively decided the game, was 15.8%. Tatum was 60%. Tatum put up 21 points in the 2nd half on 16 shots. If he's going to get that much more usage than Jaylen, he damn well better put up those numbers. Jaylen still pitched in 14 on 10 shots in that 2nd half.

Listen, I'm most assuredly not saying Jaylen Brown is a better basketball player than Tatum. But, if Tatum is going to be asked to be the man on offense, and we're going to take the ball out of Jaylen's hands and let Tatum roll with it, he needs to do more. That's the reality, especially when we aren't asking him to do anything on the other end, and asking Jaylen to cover their most talented player over and over again. So when I see folks constantly taking swipes at Jaylen, I just don't get it.

Put him in the corner on Tucker, let him have the USG rates that Tatum is getting on offense, and I'm pretty sure Jaylen will throw up a bunch of 30 and 10 games too. Those still won't do us any good if he starts 1/9 in the first half, and pours in numbers in the 2nd half in a desperate attempt to dig out of a hole he created.

 

[benhogan]

I'm trying to save my mental health and not obsess about the Cs so I've not read through the thread since last night, but I was thinking that the two big lineup would be something to try. Would give Embiid more problems than from what I saw last night and the game before.

Double BIG was also my thought, but who doesn't start? Kind of need White to guard Maxey.

Doubt we could have ever landed Poeltl, but he would have been helpful w/ Embiid

Grant has really struggled against Joel (like most players), if there was any way to swap Grant for Jakob this off-season Brad should explore.

Why do we expect him to raise the floor? In an ideal world he'd be a lead Asst for a couple years prior to moving on to a head job. Instead, he's thrust into a lead role 2-3 years prior to being fully prepared, unable to build his own staff instead left with the old coaches hires while having his top Asst leave for a college job in mid season.

Everyone is blaming Joe when it was Ime who put us in this predicament.

+1 This is completely fair, Brad really needs to add to the staff.

 

[Auger34]

.

Before others complain about perceived hypocrisy between this and my defenses of Tatum, I want to make clear that I have defended Tatum against hyperbolic claims that he has been awful/terrible/etc. He hasn’t. That doesn’t mean he has been as good as he can be and as we need him to be. He hasn’t been that either. He has two games now where he needs to show up at that level or his summer is going to start a month early.

I’ve been one of the people that you’ve had these back and forths with.

I think that he has been awful in spurts. I don’t want to litigate all of this over again, but, I think 1-9 is awful for any player. Tatum contributes in other ways, so he can still help on the floor, but it’s still not good. And, it’s hyperbolic to say that 1-9 sucks? Really? Literally anyone that is 1-9 is sucking. You could go into a lab and create an unholy mix of Pippen/Nash/Kyrie…going 1-9 still sucks. This isn’t unique to Tatum or some demerit against him…that’s just basketball.

This is what @reggiecleveland is talking about and why he’s turned into sort of an anti-Tatum guy. If we are really trying to make 1-9 (with 8 brick houses) look good then we’ve lost the plot. It’s ok to say a player has sucked in a half. It’s not personal. Tatum is still a GREAT player. He just is more inconsistent over one game then we all would prefer.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

They’ve got to shut down the Maxey/Harden pick and roll. It seems like they made the wrong choices every single time on that set. If CJM can’t figure that out, he deserves to be shown the door. Simple as that.

Sorry if this has been posted already (here or another thread - did a quick search and didn't find it) but Cs gave up 1.15 points per possession when PHI ran PnR last game. Cite: https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/the-big-adjustment-the-celtics-need-to-make-heading-into-game-6/.

In that article, a guy on Twitter saw that when Harden goes left on PnR, Cs are getting killed but Cs look to fare better when Harden goes right.

Cs have had trouble with PnR all year. We'll know early on if they've figured out an adjustment.

 

[Auger34]

Sorry if this has been posted already (here or another thread - did a quick search and didn't find it) but Cs gave up 1.15 points per possession when PHI ran PnR last game. Cite: https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/the-big-adjustment-the-celtics-need-to-make-heading-into-game-6/.

In that article, a guy on Twitter saw that when Harden goes left on PnR, Cs are getting killed but Cs look to fare better when Harden goes right.

Cs have had trouble with PnR all year. We'll know early on if they've figured out an adjustment.

This is something that Bill Simmons and Kevin O’Connor mentioned on their last podcast together. They talked about how literally every team forces Harden right but Mazzulla somehow hadn’t made that adjustment yet.

Simmons also talked about something that @PedroKsBambino talked about after attending the last game. Simmons said that his dad was out on Mazzulla early because his behavior during timeouts and during games made it seem like he was completely out of his element

 

[reggiecleveland]

Great players get to their strong hand. The best athletes and coaches in the world have been trying to get Harden going right for more than a decade and he gets back to that lh over and over.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

+1 This is completely fair, Brad really needs to add to the staff.

Joe won't have a choice but to bring in his guys once the entire staff leaves for Houston the day after our season ends

 

[djbayko]

I just looked this up to remind myself and will try to sleep well tonight. They guy has big games in him.

 

[Red Averages]

+1 This is completely fair, Brad really needs to add to the staff.

For sure. I also think we aren’t giving enough credit to how hard it apparently is to convince someone to be an assistant coach a week before the season. JJ Reddick was offered the job, eventually turning it down to continue the media/stay home with his kids approach (which btw has put him into consideration for a HC job now somehow?!). My assumption is they have tried to bring in a few people and been unsuccessful for a variety of reasons. The off-season should cure that.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Celtics were 3-1 when facing elimination in last year's playoffs, only losing game 6 of the finals. So there is a track record of success in these situations. The question is will they defend like they did in the games they won, or not? If they do, this will be a close game they will most likely win. If they don't, look for a Philly blowout that is over before the fourth quarter starts.

 

[NomarsFool]

For sure. I also think we aren’t giving enough credit to how hard it apparently is to convince someone to be an assistant coach a week before the season. JJ Reddick was offered the job, eventually turning it down to continue the media/stay home with his kids approach (which btw has put him into consideration for a HC job now somehow?!). My assumption is they have tried to bring in a few people and been unsuccessful for a variety of reasons. The off-season should cure that.

At this point, if the Celtics don’t make it past the Sixers, I wouldn’t be making any large real estate transactions in the Boston area if I was CJM. Whenever the players talk about him it always seems a bit like they are being polite. Maybe that’s a little too harsh, but my general take is that they still gush over Ime, and then feel like they need to add in “oh yeah, Joe is good, too”. So, I really don’t get the impression that there would be much if any complaints if the Celtics went another way. The only problem is, who?

 

[lovegtm]

At this point, if the Celtics don’t make it past the Sixers, I wouldn’t be making any large real estate transactions in the Boston area if I was CJM. Whenever the players talk about him it always seems a bit like they are being polite. Maybe that’s a little too harsh, but my general take is that they still gush over Ime, and then feel like they need to add in “oh yeah, Joe is good, too”. So, I really don’t get the impression that there would be much if any complaints if the Celtics went another way. The only problem is, who?

Just based on the extension given, I would be really surprised if the move wasn't to hire veteran assistants rather than firing.

The only thing that gets CJM fired, imo, is an ultimatum from Tatum or Brown.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

At this point, if the Celtics don’t make it past the Sixers, I wouldn’t be making any large real estate transactions in the Boston area if I was CJM. Whenever the players talk about him it always seems a bit like they are being polite. Maybe that’s a little too harsh, but my general take is that they still gush over Ime, and then feel like they need to add in “oh yeah, Joe is good, too”. So, I really don’t get the impression that there would be much if any complaints if the Celtics went another way. The only problem is, who?

He was Brad's hand selected long term guy to remain on Ime's staff....everyone else was let go. Just as Danny didn't bail on Brad when he went through growing pains I wouldn't expect Brad to bail on Joe anytime soon after being thrown into this situation without even having his own staff. Remember when this guy was the favorite for Coach of the Year a few months ago? Those times were cute.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'd expect they add two assistants---an 'experienced hand' type who has been an NBA coach for a number of years, or a Tex Winter-like longtime assistant; and a younger assistant who can replace some of what Joe did on last year's staff, e.g work on specific things, provide another voice.

It's been reported a couple guys (Vogel being one) turned down the 'experienced coach' slot this year, which timing-wise I totally understand They will have a lot more options this time around.

 

[BaseballJones]

Great players get to their strong hand. The best athletes and coaches in the world have been trying to get Harden going right for more than a decade and he gets back to that lh over and over.

I've said this earlier, but it's still true. When Harden goes right it almost never results in a layup (I mean not actually NEVER, but rarely), but always a pull up jumper or floater, but when he goes left he takes it all the way to the rim. I've played with a bunch of guys who are like that - just opposite, because they're right handed. So when he starts right, you just can't jump in front of him because he has such a good handle and is still quick enough to immediately cross over and now he's got you beat to the left. If he goes right, LET HIM go right, and then just stay on his hip and play for the jump shot.

Easier said than done because he's a great offensive player, but if you watch, that's what you'll see he does, and that's how to play him.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

View: https://twitter.com/ta1297/status/1656420693087514627?s=46&t=Yv-0viabFQl7Lk7DrSRbBA


This is a problem…and it matches the eye test. For whatever reason, Jayson loves to slowly jog the ball up. We’ve seen CJM tell him to hurry up…he needs to do that on his own going forward. This team is so much better when they move fast

This is really frustrating considering how great he is if he gets the ball and instantly makes a move. It feels like the longer he plays with the ball the more effort he has to exert to score. It also seems like his deadly sidestep three game is MIA.

Watching the GS v. LA game last night and their offenses usually get things moving by 17 or 18 left on the 24. With the plodding Marcus Smart and the ponderous Jayson Tatum they're taking too much time to get going.

 

[Auger34]

With the plodding Marcus Smart and the ponderous Jayson Tatum they're taking too much time to get going.

I am not sure if this came from the Stephen A Smith AI generator or the Mark Jones one…either way I am impressed

 

[NomarsFool]

Just based on the extension given, I would be really surprised if the move wasn't to hire veteran assistants rather than firing.

I missed the extension. That does make it seem less likely, agreed. If it was just a case of "We want to thank CJM for everything he did for us as HC this year, but we have decided to move in another direction" that's much easier than firing him.

Not to derail this thread, though, but a question I have is - what exactly does CJM do well? CBS was a great X's and O's guy, good at developing a defensive strategy, and great ATO plays. Can't remember how I felt about his in-game management/adjustments. He was also good with the media (not that that is super important, but it is part of the job). Ime was a great team culture guy, clearly had the respect of the players, and was able to motivate them to play defense. I think we fans weren't as much in love with his X's and O's stuff, in game management, etc.

What are CJM's skills? Earlier in the season it seemed to be the overall offensive strategy. Hard to say as much now if that was CJM or just better players and development of some of the existing players. It's certainly not in-game adjustments or X's and O's stuff. I think the players think he's okay, but I get the impression he's a step down from Ime in terms of team culture. Again, not that it's super important, but he's not at all great with the media.

 

[Auger34]

https://theathletic.com/4505223/2023/05/10/nba-playoffs-celtics-76ers-game-6/?source=user_shared_article

An article from The Athletic by Jay King yesterday. It has quotes in it from Brown and Smart, who both comment how necessary it is for the team to run. Smart specifically says he feels like they left points on the board by being slow.

I will be paying attention to number 0 tonight. If he’s getting the ball and going I think it’s a harbinger of good things to come. If he’s getting the ball and doing the whole walk up court slowly as possible and pounding the air out of the ball, I think we could be in for a dog fight (with an unfavorable result)

 

[Jimbodandy]

I am not sure if this came from the Stephen A Smith AI generator or the Mark Jones one…either way I am impressed

Goofy tangent, but in one of Simmons' pre-draft pieces a million years ago, he pondered how long would it take on draft night for SAS to call the top Utah prospect "Andrew Bogus". Still funny.

 

[Auger34]

I missed the extension. That does make it seem less likely, agreed. If it was just a case of "We want to thank CJM for everything he did for us as HC this year, but we have decided to move in another direction" that's much easier than firing him.

Not to derail this thread, though, but a question I have is - what exactly does CJM do well? CBS was a great X's and O's guy, good at developing a defensive strategy, and great ATO plays. Can't remember how I felt about his in-game management/adjustments. He was also good with the media (not that that is super important, but it is part of the job). Ime was a great team culture guy, clearly had the respect of the players, and was able to motivate them to play defense. I think we fans weren't as much in love with his X's and O's stuff, in game management, etc.

What are CJM's skills? Earlier in the season it seemed to be the overall offensive strategy. Hard to say as much now if that was CJM or just better players and development of some of the existing players. It's certainly not in-game adjustments or X's and O's stuff. I think the players think he's okay, but I get the impression he's a step down from Ime in terms of team culture. Again, not that it's super important, but he's not at all great with the media.

I think CJM’s best skill as a coach is the game to game adjustments. He seems like a film junkie. I know he has been credited a lot (by the Jays most importantly) for his film sessions and ability to break down complex stuff and make it much more digestible. He also seems very flexible and willing to adapt, when given the benefit of watching film and time to reassess

I think his negatives are obvious (and most of them go hand in hand); he’s very inexperienced so he’s learning on the fly and there seem to be literally 0 in-game adjustments. A common refrain from people who go to the games is that he seems very overwhelmed.
The other negative is something that is specific to this team and this particular group of players…. I think his communication style and how he handles the team is way too similar to Brad Stevens. To be honest, this is the type of style that I prefer. Keep everything in house, be positive about players in the media, etc.
For whatever reason, this team seems to respond much better to an asskicker like Ime. Ime constantly called them out in the media for effort/execution/whatever. His style seemed really demanding and pretty Assholeish. Simmons has specifically mentioned how tough he was with Rob and how he challenged him all of the time to play “hurt but not injured”.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Those numbers are somewhat skewed by the Hawks series, FWIW. The Hawks heavily trapped Tatum, so it naturally slowed the pace more when he was on the court, versus off. Everyone has played slow this series, here’s the pace with guys on and off the court against the Sixers. Smart, Tatum, and Jaylen have all slowed the game down quite a bit.

Also, credit the Sixers who have made a point of getting back and trying to take away transition opportunities.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Here’s the seconds and dribbles per possession stats for the top ball handlers in the playoffs, which is another way to see if guys are making quick decisions. Tatum is the lowest for both, but that’s partially because defenses forcing the ball out of his hands.

Brogdon: 4.28/4.24
Jaylen: 3.97/3.36
Smart: 3.90/3.19
White: 3.82/3.14
Tatum: 3.79/2.67

 

[McBride11]

Those numbers are somewhat skewed by the Hawks series, FWIW. The Hawks heavily trapped Tatum, so it naturally slowed the pace more when he was on the court, versus off. Everyone has played slow this series, here’s the pace with guys on and off the court against the Sixers. Smart, Tatum, and Jaylen have all slowed the game down quite a bit.

Also, credit the Sixers who have made a point of getting back and trying to take away transition opportunities.

-clipped-

Guess we got a new starting 5! Champagnie, Kornet, Muscala, Hauser, PP. Bringing back the 2BIGZ lineup.

 

[Auger34]

Here’s the seconds and dribbles per possession stats for the top ball handlers in the playoffs, which is another way to see if guys are making quick decisions. Tatum is the lowest for both, but that’s partially because defenses forcing the ball out of his hands.

Brogdon: 4.28/4.24
Jaylen: 3.97/3.36
Smart: 3.90/3.19
White: 3.82/3.14
Tatum: 3.79/2.67

Brogdon being at the top isn’t a surprise at all. He’s pretty methodical and rarely seems interested in passing the ball.

I would have guessed Tatum and Brown would he flip flopped but the numbers are pretty close overall.

To your point earlier, aren’t Tatum’s numbers for this deflated from the Hawks series where they often trapped him and he passed the ball pretty much immediately?

 

[RorschachsMask]

Brogdon being at the top isn’t a surprise at all. He’s pretty methodical and rarely seems interested in passing the ball.

I would have guessed Tatum and Brown would he flip flopped but the numbers are pretty close overall.

To your point earlier, aren’t Tatum’s numbers for this deflated from the Hawks series where they often trapped him and he passed the ball pretty much immediately?

Oh yeah like I said above, it’s definitely partially because of the trapping he’s faced. Sixers are doing less trapping and more loading up their defense to his side. Actually they’ve now moved Tucker onto Jaylen the last game or game and a half, kind of the same strategy as putting your #2 corner on the other teams top receiver with safety help over the top.

Tatum takes his time bringing the ball up the court, but makes mostly quick decisions in the half court. Part of the reason the numbers are probably different than people expect is that in the playoffs, he’s going ISO 15.2% of the time, which is down from 17.2% in the regular season. Jaylen was at 9.9% in the regular season, and is up to 13.9% of the time in the playoffs.

Edit: I actually just checked the numbers for this series, and Tatum’s time and dribbles per possessions numbers are actually a bit lower than against the Hawks. So what do I know lol, Hawks definitely trapped him more though.