Ok since we are deep into the weeds on this, I will go even further. Even if it conveys 2-5, the C's also get a pick in that draft. So its not like they get nothing - its not a total "disaster" but it could be very bad for sure.
That said, if I were asked to value that pick swap in isolation, I might take the probability of it conveying at two, then multiply it by the production. Using the 13% @ZMart100
posted above, the C's expected worse case outcome is forgoing 13%*11.5 (four year WAR) = ~1.47 wins. But that doesn't account for the pick incoming to the Celtics which will also have some expected production. But even at zero the loss of 1.47 expected four-year WAR, six years forward, seems kind of silly to worry about.
Caveat - this is me just throwing things against the wall and I could be completely missing things. I will take my peer review like an adult.
This is from The Ringer
around last year's draft:
Edit: Used the wrong four year WAR initially - its even lower because of the protection.
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