Celtics trade Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford and a 1st round pick to Spurs for Derrick White

[Cellar-Door]

yeah, I think White has been good, and his being here is a huge reason they can actually play PP.
Also at some point there will be series you just can't really play PP.

Beyond that, White is playing 27 MPG in the regular season for us and 20MPG in the playoffs. White had a horrible offensive series against the Nets, but he played really good defense, was the best non-big rebounder by a mile (better than Grant too if we count him as a big). If he hit a couple more 3s that's a decent series.

 

[DavidTai]

White gives you a level of Smart/Brown insurance that PP doesn't offer, and considering both have had some injury issues that's a valuable thing. Not to mention, it's hardly terrible to have a rotation that goes 9 deep and offers Ime flexibility to play small or big depending on the matchup. And if White can pull a Grant and learn to shoot corner 3s over the summer...

I'd also add that PP's game developed -because- getting rid of Schroeder for Theis and replacing him with White meant PP -could focus on shooting- instead of playing point, and was doing that with a backup point who -actually- passed him the ball instead of looking for his own shot.

I feel like consolidating Freedom/Langford/Schroeder/Richardson into White and Theis actually improved the team because Theis and White had a 'multiplier' effect on the rest of the bench. They converted, essentially, Richardson/Langford into White and Schroeder/Freedom into Theis, which allowed them to unlock Pritchard into a role that no one was filling before. So they have a better bench -after- all that moving.

More to the point, getting White allows them to NOT have the same kind of defensive lapses whenever Schroeder came into the game.

The swap, I assumed, was some sort of hedge against the Celtics getting so much better that the first round pick's value went from mid-teens to late-20's, which, uh, it did.

 

[Devizier]

White gives the Celtics the defensive versatility to match up with everyone. I think his offense will rebound, too, but he's already given enough on the defensive end to be worthwhile.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

White gives you a level of Smart/Brown insurance that PP doesn't offer, and considering both have had some injury issues that's a valuable thing. Not to mention, it's hardly terrible to have a rotation that goes 9 deep and offers Ime flexibility to play small or big depending on the matchup. And if White can pull a Grant and learn to shoot corner 3s over the summer...

^^^^^ This right here.

White can matchup with scoring wings and big guards at any point in the game and is switchable all over the floor. He really doesn’t affect Pritchard’s role as they are so different. If he wasn’t here it wouldn’t change Pritchard’s usage at all since the latter is going to be carefully spotted minutes based on matchups.

 

[tims4wins]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see White shoot better from 3 (maybe not in round 2, but next year). Should that happen, he becomes even more valuable. It’s not like he can’t shoot, as evidenced by his FT%.

 

[gammoseditor]

White checked in when Tatum fouled out last night. His shot isn’t falling but outside of that he seems to fit and provide versatility.

 

[JakeRae]

Others have made this point, but White is a key part of the relentless defense we now have. White is one of the best guard defenders in the game and his presence means there is no break or soft spot when Smart and Jaylen are resting. He also is a solid offensive player even with his awful season shooting the ball—and he should ultimately revert back to being an average shooter.

The trade wasn’t just about this season. We now have a core roster that is locked up entirely for next year and is largely locked in for the year after too. That level of guaranteed continuity is extremely rare in the NBA and should continue to pay dividends for the Celtics going forward.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I really hope that pick swap doesn't come back to haunt them, because White has been really underwhelming. It felt like an overpay at the time, and it feels even more so now.

It's an overpay given how PP has developed, and imho will develop further. If PP was a zero, it was a fair price. I wish they played PP more at the 1, not exclusively at the 2. He's got the handle imho, especially when you play Tatum at point forward.

This feels like it is coming from the "every silver lining has its cloud" school of thought. White not putting up great numbers in one playoff series isn;t really grounds to second guess the acquisition. The Celtics value Pop-style quick decision making - which White does - and being able to nearly always roll a lineup that doesn't have a little PG who can be hunted. Having White helps on both those counts. WIthout white, this series probably goes to a 5th or even 6th game, as PP gave them nothing in games 1 and 4.

In game 1, White entered with 4:36 to go and the Celtics down by 5, 107-102, and was part of the 13-7 run that ended it.

In game 4, he wass also Ime's choice to play at the end when Tatum fouled out.

I think we'll see more from him next year when he has had a chance to get a full camp in. (Or, this year if someone gets hurt, ut hopefully that will not happen).

 

[The Mort Report]

I think an underrated aspect to his offense is he might be the guy I'm most comfortable with driving to the hoop. Once he's in the paint he always seems to make the right play and barely, if ever, turns it over. He also doesn't seem to miss those little floaters or quick layups. While obviously JB and JT do it more, JB always has a couple where he loses the ball trying to over dribble, JT misses easy-ish ones here and there(though he usually is getting whacked and no call).

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Others have made this point, but White is a key part of the relentless defense we now have. White is one of the best guard defenders in the game and his presence means there is no break or soft spot when Smart and Jaylen are resting.

It seems like people have forgotten what it was like to watch Schroder sometimes play defense but many times not. Can't really imagine Schroder getting switched on to KD over and over again in this series.

 

[pjheff]

White gives you a level of Smart/Brown insurance that PP doesn't offer, and considering both have had some injury issues that's a valuable thing. Not to mention, it's hardly terrible to have a rotation that goes 9 deep and offers Ime flexibility to play small or big depending on the matchup. And if White can pull a Grant and learn to shoot corner 3s over the summer...

A lot of this angst feels similar to the questioning of Theis’ acquisition. It only takes one injury — and Marcus has been prone to them — to appreciate the availability of quality two-way depth.

 

[Marbleheader]

His +/- was in the negative for 3 of the 4 games in the series. He's the only rotational player that I don't have confidence in, especially on the offensive end. Maybe he will turn it around, but the deal on the whole I think is fair to call into question.

 

[JakeRae]

His +/- was in the negative for 3 of the 4 games in the series. He's the only rotational player that I don't have confidence in, especially on the offensive end. Maybe he will turn it around, but the deal on the whole I think is fair to call into question.

Based on three games of +/-?

 

[Cellar-Door]

His +/- was in the negative for 3 of the 4 games in the series. He's the only rotational player that I don't have confidence in, especially on the offensive end. Maybe he will turn it around, but the deal on the whole I think is fair to call into question.

LOL

We're judging a trade for a 27 year old with 4 years on his contract based on 3 playoff games? And worse yet, based on SINGLE GAME PLUS MINUS?
To give an example of why this is dumb.... White had a better series +/- than Grant and Rob Williams. He had better single game +/- in at least two games than Rob, PP, Grant, Smart, Theis.... it's beyond a useless stat, especially for bench guys who in the playoffs usually are replacing the best players but not necessarily matching the opponents' bench.

 

[TripleOT]

White is 24-6 with the Celtics. He’s a stabilizer with the second unit, and can step in for either Smart, Brown, or Tatum with the starters. He’s a good playmaker when Tatum hockey assists him off the double team with the second unit, either driving the lane for a short shot, or kicking to PP or Grant for a three. Defensively, he’s Smart-lite. I love everything about the White acquisition, despite his shaky shooting from deep.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

White is 24-6 with the Celtics. He’s a stabilizer with the second unit, and can step in for either Smart, Brown, or Tatum with the starters. He’s a good playmaker when Tatum hockey assists him off the double team with the second unit, either driving the lane for a short shot, or kicking to PP or Grant for a three. Defensively, he’s Smart-lite. I love everything about the White acquisition, despite his shaky shooting from deep.

White is the very definition of what “fit” means when it comes to player acquisition. For the last few years we watched Ainge’s moves and collectively scratched our heads as our square pegs couldn’t fit into the round holes. White is a round peg on this team.

 

[lexrageorge]

Stevens moves have all been about maximizing the Tatum/Brown window of opportunity, which is now just opening. White is a much better fit on this roster than Richardson was and certainly Schroeder ever could be. The regular season results leading up to this point matter as well. If the Celtics had a worse record, then they may have been looking at opening their 2nd round series in Milwaukee instead of Boston. Or perhaps they don't go into the opening round with as much confidence, and instead of facing the Nets they would have faced a 76'ers team with home court.

This is not the time to worry about 2028; there are so many things that could happen in the interim that could make the swap completely moot.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Stevens moves have all been about maximizing the Tatum/Brown window of opportunity, which is now just opening. White is a much better fit on this roster than Richardson was and certainly Schroeder ever could be. The regular season results leading up to this point matter as well. If the Celtics had a worse record, then they may have been looking at opening their 2nd round series in Milwaukee instead of Boston. Or perhaps they don't go into the opening round with as much confidence, and instead of facing the Nets they would have faced a 76'ers team with home court.

This is not the time to worry about 2028; there are so many things that could happen in the interim that could make the swap completely moot.

Right. To add to this…..do not expect this to be the last trade that results in similar reactions by some. We are not in developmental mode…..we are looking to maximize the present. There is a decent chance we don’t utilize a 1st round pick over the next several years. We have one in Begarin and will probably look for similar types in the 2nd round over the next couple years.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Right. To add to this…..do not expect this to be the last trade that results in similar reactions by some. We are not in developmental mode…..we are looking to maximize the present. There is a decent chance we don’t utilize a 1st round pick over the next several years. We have one in Begarin and will probably look for similar types in the 2nd round over the next couple years.

Which puts Stevens in the semi-perpetual slog of finding the veteran bench pieces that will rotate in and out for a chance at a ring (as long as they are 3&D types) balancing whatever luxury tax criteria ownership has in place that year. Being honest, I wish the Cs had a better track record for development of players. I look at Toronto and Miami (among others), and am envious of the way they bring along the raw talent while we watched Edwards, Young, Langford, Nesmith, et al just wither on the vine.

When one looks at this window, and the pieces that he was worried about holding onto... Ainge and the current Cs are going to look longingly at Bane for many years to come. He is someone that truly got away. The folks here who were banging his drum got it totally right.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Hell, not only may the swap be nothing at all, but the pick this year is in range where they can buy a similar pick back if they really want.

He’s a huge part of what they have done to look like the best team in basketball and he’s locked in on what is a really solid deal, not too different from Smart’s last contract.

Just look at some other deals made by contending teams that already have their stars in place—a lot of times the best you can hope for is a one-skill player (Kyle Korver was traded for a 1st round pick multiple times IIRC).

They did really well here and I will echo HRB that with Tatum leveling up to superstardom we will take as many versatile role players as we can get.

As for an Achilles’ Heel, his shooting can’t actually be an Achilles’ Heel if it doesn’t cost any playoff games, and certainly not if the team wins it all.

 

[lexrageorge]

Which puts Stevens in the semi-perpetual slog of finding the veteran bench pieces that will rotate in and out for a chance at a ring (as long as they are 3&D types) balancing whatever luxury tax criteria ownership has in place that year. Being honest, I wish the Cs had a better track record for development of players. I look at Toronto and Miami (among others), and am envious of the way they bring along the raw talent while we watched Edwards, Young, Langford, Nesmith, et al just wither on the vine.

When one looks at this window, and the pieces that he was worried about holding onto... Ainge and the current Cs are going to look longingly at Bane for many years to come. He is someone that truly got away. The folks here who were banging his drum got it totally right.

With regards to young player development, Robert Williams looks like a home run. Grant Williams is a solid single that could still stretch into a double. Pritchard is fine for where he was drafted. We may get to see Bergarin next year. And the book on Nesmith is still being written. And some of these were just bad picks: Young, Edwards, Langford were not going to thrive anywhere.

Bane was an unnecessary move by Ainge, but we still don't know if Ainge would have drafted him with that pick.

The good news is that the type of players the Celtics need to rotate in and out should be readily available.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Being honest, I wish the Cs had a better track record for development of players. I look at Toronto and Miami (among others), and am envious of the way they bring along the raw talent while we watched Edwards, Young, Langford, Nesmith, et al just wither on the vine.

No one has homegrown talent as good as JB, JT, Marcus, TL, GW, and PP.

The Cs have done a great job at developing talent. They've had a lot of picks so we kind of remember the ones that got away and taken for granted what we have in front of us.

 

[Euclis20]

Which puts Stevens in the semi-perpetual slog of finding the veteran bench pieces that will rotate in and out for a chance at a ring (as long as they are 3&D types) balancing whatever luxury tax criteria ownership has in place that year. Being honest, I wish the Cs had a better track record for development of players. I look at Toronto and Miami (among others), and am envious of the way they bring along the raw talent while we watched Edwards, Young, Langford, Nesmith, et al just wither on the vine.

When one looks at this window, and the pieces that he was worried about holding onto... Ainge and the current Cs are going to look longingly at Bane for many years to come. He is someone that truly got away. The folks here who were banging his drum got it totally right.

This is a bit played out, to be honest. 6 of the Celtics 9 playoff rotation guys were drafted and developed by Boston (not counting Theis, who signed as free agent rookie with Boston and clearly has done all of his developing here). The Heat have 11 guys averaging 10+ mpg in the playoffs, just 4 of which were drafted by Miami (or signed as rookie FAs). The Raptors have 9 guys averaging 10+ mpg in the playoffs, also just 4 of which were drafted by Toronto.

Both of these teams are really great at developing players later in the draft, but let's not pretend that the Celtics didn't do a very solid job drafting and developing players from 2013-2020 (Olynyk, Smart, Rozier, Brown, Tatum, TL, Grant, Pritchard). They've had a lot of picks, but those guys all played (or continue to play) key roles on playoff teams and were drafted, on average, at pick #15. Take a step back, that is a REALLY impressive slate of picks. How many teams playoff rotation players in 8 consecutive drafts, no matter how many picks they have?

 

[RetractableRoof]

No one has homegrown talent as good as JB, JT, Marcus, TL, GW, and PP.

The Cs have done a great job at developing talent. They've had a lot of picks so we kind of remember the ones that got away and taken for granted what we have in front of us.

In many ways, that's fair. We do assume that top 6-8 picks should pan out/develop though, right? (Not taking anything away from the scouting and guts to take players [Brown, Smart] who were maybe considered reaches by others.) It's fair to be reminded that they have developed, whether in house or with their own personal training. TL was considered a gamble based on health (but he has developed). Grant has been a slow simmer. I don't know that PP has developed (though his defense has improved over the last half of this season) - as he was considered by many a low ceiling, high floor player. He got more run by Stevens last year than Ime this year, so I don't know if we can say he's developed (only year 2 though, who knows where he ends up).

Perhaps it's more that I'm seeing the amazing growth in the core 3/4 that you mentioned and am now greedily looking for similar growth in the players that were thought to be supporting them during this window - which I'm reminded is unrealistic after reading posts like yours. I see the physical talent that Langsford and Nesmith have and projected the same growth onto them... but if everyone drafted had the same growth curve as our core they wouldn't be remarkable.

The other side of the coin is that we've had other good players that were drafted here, that we didn't keep - Olynyk, Rozier, Semi, etc. I'm not sure they would be fits in this version of the Cs. As mentioned above, Ainge drafted lots of "assets" waiting for the window to open (while trying to force it open with KI and Hayward and overtures for Durant and others). Now the window is open, and since I prefer to not root for laundry, I'm hoping that some of our future complementary/rotation players are developed at home versus just the rental market.

Future problems to fixate on while I endure the long wait for R2 G1.

 

[benhogan]

Which puts Stevens in the semi-perpetual slog of finding the veteran bench pieces that will rotate in and out for a chance at a ring (as long as they are 3&D types) balancing whatever luxury tax criteria ownership has in place that year. Being honest, I wish the Cs had a better track record for development of players. I look at Toronto and Miami (among others), and am envious of the way they bring along the raw talent while we watched Edwards, Young, Langford, Nesmith, et al just wither on the vine.

When one looks at this window, and the pieces that he was worried about holding onto... Ainge and the current Cs are going to look longingly at Bane for many years to come. He is someone that truly got away. The folks here who were banging his drum got it totally right.

We have a bunch of youngsters that could eventually step into rotational roles: Pritchard, Nesmith, Hauser, Begarin, Madar and 2nd rounders. BUT those spots will be very competitive since most of the roster is signed for multiple years.

Stapling late first-rounders in consolidation moves is better than letting them rot on the bench.

What Miami and Toronto are great at is taking URFA/later picks and making them rotational pieces. We'll see how PBS does there

 

[bankshot1]

No one has homegrown talent as good as JB, JT, Marcus, TL, GW, and PP.

The Cs have done a great job at developing talent. They've had a lot of picks so we kind of remember the ones that got away and taken for granted what we have in front of us.

Bingo.

I posted this pre-season

The TL extension along with Smart's got me to pondering (always dangerous) and by my count brings to 8 the homegrown 1st round draft picks on this team. This is almost study worthy, but given FA, the salary cap, and player movement, there can't be too many contender quality NBA teams over the past 40 years (Red's 60s and 70s championships teams were almost all homegrown, with some notable exceptions: Nelson, Howell, Embry Silas) built almost entirely with 1st round picks.

Whether PBS and Coach U find that success remains to be seen, but PBS was CBS and should have a decent handle on chemistry, and which non-draft Celts (Al and Enes) are good fits. But as a long time C's fan, I kind of like it.

 

[lovegtm]

In many ways, that's fair. We do assume that top 6-8 picks should pan out/develop though, right? (Not taking anything away from the scouting and guts to take players [Brown, Smart] who were maybe considered reaches by others.) It's fair to be reminded that they have developed, whether in house or with their own personal training. TL was considered a gamble based on health (but he has developed). Grant has been a slow simmer. I don't know that PP has developed (though his defense has improved over the last half of this season) - as he was considered by many a low ceiling, high floor player. He got more run by Stevens last year than Ime this year, so I don't know if we can say he's developed (only year 2 though, who knows where he ends up).

Perhaps it's more that I'm seeing the amazing growth in the core 3/4 that you mentioned and am now greedily looking for similar growth in the players that were thought to be supporting them during this window - which I'm reminded is unrealistic after reading posts like yours. I see the physical talent that Langsford and Nesmith have and projected the same growth onto them... but if everyone drafted had the same growth curve as our core they wouldn't be remarkable.

The other side of the coin is that we've had other good players that were drafted here, that we didn't keep - Olynyk, Rozier, Semi, etc. I'm not sure they would be fits in this version of the Cs. As mentioned above, Ainge drafted lots of "assets" waiting for the window to open (while trying to force it open with KI and Hayward and overtures for Durant and others). Now the window is open, and since I prefer to not root for laundry, I'm hoping that some of our future complementary/rotation players are developed at home versus just the rental market.

Future problems to fixate on while I endure the long wait for R2 G1.

In the nicest possible tone...you have an unrealistic view of what can be expected from the draft. EVERYBODY misses guys, all the time, even picking in the top 6, let alone the top 30.

When you have time/are bored, go back and look through the picks of teams whose player development you like. You'll see tons of flops all through the draft.

 

[lovegtm]

A lot of this angst feels similar to the questioning of Theis’ acquisition. It only takes one injury — and Marcus has been prone to them — to appreciate the availability of quality two-way depth.

Not a coincidence that the guy making these moves probably thinks he would have won a title in 2019-20 with better depth.

 

[128]

In the nicest possible tone...you have an unrealistic view of what can be expected from the draft. EVERYBODY misses guys, all the time, even picking in the top 6, let alone the top 30.

When you have time/are bored, go back and look through the picks of teams whose player development you like. You'll see tons of flops all through the draft.

Exactly. Look no further than the Sixers and some of their top-5 picks: Evan Turner (2), Okafor (3), Fultz (1). Even Simmons might be remembered as something of a miss.

 

[Koufax]

Semi is currently on the street. Vet minimum next year?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

His +/- was in the negative for 3 of the 4 games in the series. He's the only rotational player that I don't have confidence in, especially on the offensive end. Maybe he will turn it around, but the deal on the whole I think is fair to call into question.

Derrick White is the reason Rob Williams can be out, or Jayson Tatum can foul out, and the Celtics can still win a close game. The Celtics' calling card is their defense, and a lot of their defense is at the team level - switching, strategies about who gets taken away and who gets left open to take it away, etc.

In game 1 they closed with Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, and Horford. In the 5 minutes prior to that they had the same group except Grant and Theis in place of White and they were outscored 12-4. After White came in, Celtics outscored Nets 13-7.

His offensive numbers have generally been worse than his career averages since he came over. But I don't really buy that he left his offensive skills in Texas, it is just an adjustment thing.

 

[Van Everyman]

Agree. And yeah the worth remembering that the entire team struggled offensively for half a season before things clicked.

White has picked up the system pretty quickly in most regards so it may simply be that he’s shooting poorly because he is still thinking too much on the offensive end.

 

[lovegtm]

Semi is currently on the street. Vet minimum next year?

Hard pass. He can't contest shots.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Agree. And yeah the worth remembering that the entire team struggled offensively for half a season before things clicked.

White has picked up the system pretty quickly in most regards so it may simply be that he’s shooting poorly because he is still thinking too much on the offensive end.

White is shooting poorly……bc he’s always been a poor shooter. The best part of his offensive game in SA was with the ball in his hands in pick ‘n roll where he could attack mismatches off the dribble which are opportunities he doesn’t get often in Boston. Shooting was always a struggle….always…..with the exception of the bubble when he had a good stretch.

Appreciate White for what he brings even if that includes being an awful 3-pt shooter for a guard.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

One other thing on Derrick White and plus/minus. Although it is always dangerous to focus too much on small samples, cleaning the glass has a breakdown of White's lineups and one thing stands out.

According to CTG, he played 163 possessions in 14 different lineups. 6 lineups and 85 possessions were negative in plus minus, 8 lineups and 78 possessoins were positive.

Two players accounted for a large chink of the negative: Pritchard and Rob. In 69 possesions with one or the other, White was negative in 54 of them (79%).

In 94 possessions without either, White was negative in 31.

Rob was out of sync. Pritchard is a guy that requires special adaptation of a game plan.

SImilar thing with Pritchard - his lineups 46 negative lineups, 35 positive. Lineups with White: 41/55 negative. Lineups without White: 5/27 negative.

That pairing either doesn't work or didn't work against Brooklyn.

I don't think there's necessarily any long-term carryover to this. White has had limited time in the organization and it may just be more difficult for a new player to adjust to how Boston covers for Pritchard than to how they play defense generally.

There may be an Brooklyn-specific element to this, too, with Brooklyn rolling out two stars that needed to be stopped at all costs, even leaving others open, and neither of whom Pritchard can be trusted to guard.

 

[lexrageorge]

White is shooting poorly……bc he’s always been a poor shooter. The best part of his offensive game in SA was with the ball in his hands in pick ‘n roll where he could attack mismatches off the dribble which are opportunities he doesn’t get often in Boston. Shooting was always a struggle….always…..with the exception of the bubble when he had a good stretch.

Appreciate White for what he brings even if that includes being an awful 3-pt shooter for a guard.

White is shooting below his career averages.

In 2019, he shot just shy of 34% on 142 3-pt attempts. In the pre-bubble part of the 2020 season, he shot 35% in 160 attempts. In 2021, he was 35% in 243 attempts (I don't consider the 2020-21 season to be part of the "bubble"). Fairly consistent seasons outside of the bubble. Not great for a guard, obviously, but acceptable for a guy coming off the bench and the role he is being asked to fill here.

His 31% shooting percentage on 3's this season is probably just statistical variation, possibly exacerbated by the change in teams (although he was around 31% with the Spurs this season as well). And he is just in a tough stretch right now (1-11), but highly doubt that's at all predictive going forward.

EDIT: And, while we're on the topic of trades, Theis played 88 minutes this series. Imagine if even half of those minutes went to Kanter because there was no Theis trade; the result would have been more minutes to spread around due to the fact there would have been more games in this past series.

 

[Fishy1]

White is shooting below his career averages.

In 2019, he shot just shy of 34% on 142 3-pt attempts. In the pre-bubble part of the 2020 season, he shot 35% in 160 attempts. In 2021, he was 35% in 243 attempts (I don't consider the 2020-21 season to be part of the "bubble"). Fairly consistent seasons outside of the bubble. Not great for a guard, obviously, but acceptable for a guy coming off the bench and the role he is being asked to fill here.

His 31% shooting percentage on 3's this season is probably just statistical variation, possibly exacerbated by the change in teams (although he was around 31% with the Spurs this season as well). And he is just in a tough stretch right now (1-11), but highly doubt that's at all predictive going forward.

EDIT: And, while we're on the topic of trades, Theis played 88 minutes this series. Imagine if even half of those minutes went to Kanter because there was no Theis trade; the result would have been more minutes to spread around due to the fact there would have been more games in this past series.

Thank you for pointing this out. Depth is so, so important in the NBA. Injuries are frequent and it is really really hard to find good defensive big men. And to think we turned good depth in Richardson into even better depth in White. Richardson has had a great year shooting the 3 but he's just not the sort of passing-first guard the Celtics needed next to Brown and Tatum (and PP and Grant and Rob, for that matter). This team is now built around great defense (which Theis allowed us to maintain even in Rob's absence), and getting open 3's and easy buckets (and White makes that so much easier).

 

[Auger34]

White is shooting below his career averages.

In 2019, he shot just shy of 34% on 142 3-pt attempts. In the pre-bubble part of the 2020 season, he shot 35% in 160 attempts. In 2021, he was 35% in 243 attempts (I don't consider the 2020-21 season to be part of the "bubble"). Fairly consistent seasons outside of the bubble. Not great for a guard, obviously, but acceptable for a guy coming off the bench and the role he is being asked to fill here.

His 31% shooting percentage on 3's this season is probably just statistical variation, possibly exacerbated by the change in teams (although he was around 31% with the Spurs this season as well). And he is just in a tough stretch right now (1-11), but highly doubt that's at all predictive going forward.

EDIT: And, while we're on the topic of trades, Theis played 88 minutes this series. Imagine if even half of those minutes went to Kanter because there was no Theis trade; the result would have been more minutes to spread around due to the fact there would have been more games in this past series.

The other thing that was correctly brought up after the acquisition is that White should actually be expected to shoot even better than he did in SA since he will be getting way more open looks playing off of the Jays….

Personally, I think this trade is now close to a no brained for the Celtics. The pick this year is 25 and it’s looking more and more like the pick swap won’t ever come to fruition ( or if it does it’s not a huge deal like giving up the 1st pick).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

White is shooting below his career averages.

In 2019, he shot just shy of 34% on 142 3-pt attempts. In the pre-bubble part of the 2020 season, he shot 35% in 160 attempts. In 2021, he was 35% in 243 attempts (I don't consider the 2020-21 season to be part of the "bubble"). Fairly consistent seasons outside of the bubble. Not great for a guard, obviously, but acceptable for a guy coming off the bench and the role he is being asked to fill here.

His 31% shooting percentage on 3's this season is probably just statistical variation, possibly exacerbated by the change in teams (although he was around 31% with the Spurs this season as well). And he is just in a tough stretch right now (1-11), but highly doubt that's at all predictive going forward.

EDIT: And, while we're on the topic of trades, Theis played 88 minutes this series. Imagine if even half of those minutes went to Kanter because there was no Theis trade; the result would have been more minutes to spread around due to the fact there would have been more games in this past series.

34-35% is pretty poor for a rotation guard in todays game. 31% can be variance off that for sure or it could be a reversion to being the bad shooter he was pre-bubble. Considering he’s never had a “breakthrough” 38-39% year which would be expected if his 31% is simply variance, his normal is probably close to where he is today. This is the Marcus Smart thing all over again. You take the bad with the good in his game.

As you note, he was awful for the entire season this year so using the “adjustment” excuse just doesn’t fly.

 

[NomarsFool]

One thing that I think became very apparent in the Nets series is that defense is really only as good as your weakest link (or sometimes your second weakest link). The upgrade from Grant Williams 2020-2021 to 2021-2022, the upgrade from Kemba Walker to White, the upgrade from Kanter/Thompson to Horford and Rob Williams 2021-2022 has synergistically improved the Celtics' defense, even much more so than the individual upgrades.

On another topic that has been raised in this thread, I think we can now say that the Rob Williams pick looks like a steal in that draft. That helps blunt the sting of the Nesmith/Langford disappointments - which were disappointments not just because of how the players have panned out so far, but also because both of those picks were expected to be significantly higher up in the lottery than they ended up being.

 

[lexrageorge]

34-35% is pretty poor for a rotation guard in todays game. 31% can be variance off that for sure or it could be a reversion to being the bad shooter he was pre-bubble. Considering he’s never had a “breakthrough” 38-39% year which would be expected if his 31% is simply variance, his normal is probably close to where he is today. This is the Marcus Smart thing all over again. You take the bad with the good in his game.

As you note, he was awful for the entire season this year so using the “adjustment” excuse just doesn’t fly.

My point was that pre-bubble he was 34-35% career 3-point shooter. He was actually only slightly better in the bubble at around 38%. So I don't buy that he will be 31% going forward; the 3% delta is well within the range for a career 34% shooter.

 

[RetractableRoof]

In the nicest possible tone...you have an unrealistic view of what can be expected from the draft. EVERYBODY misses guys, all the time, even picking in the top 6, let alone the top 30.

When you have time/are bored, go back and look through the picks of teams whose player development you like. You'll see tons of flops all through the draft.

In the nicest possible tone... in my post you quoted, I acknowledged being reminded by WBCD that I was being unrealistic and further stated I was being greedy. Thanks for piling on though. Further, I didn't question the quality of the previous drafting (I have no issue with it), my thoughts were merely about the development of the raw players who were in fact drafted/in house. I think Langsford/Nesmith have enough physical talent to be solid pieces (as well as Strus, Green who were in Cs uniforms) and merely wish that one could have been ready to contribute now that the window is unequivocally open. It was a throw away post of sorts in this thread, sparked by the fact that one of those players was part of this deal. The Bane comment was a compliment to those in this forum who were upset about him from the get go - and yes a small poke at Ainge for missing on him when he was right in his hands. [That comment didn't belong in this thread, sorry.]

WRT the trade, I think it was a 100% win for the Cs - the player extracted by Stevens is a perfect fit for this team for this year. The contract term remaining is what justifies any risk from the pick swap.

 

[tbrown_01923]

I think Langsford/Nesmith have enough physical talent to be solid pieces (as well as Strus, Green who were in Cs uniforms) and merely wish that one could have been ready to contribute now that the window is unequivocally open.

I liked Langford as well. I thought he was slippery enough to be able to be a decent slasher and a good finisher on the break. The celts had enough slashers and coupled with his injuries he just never got going (limited opportunities due to injury and then when on the court he was down the slasher pecking order). its too bad it didn't work out. I am hoping Nesmith can still figure something out, maybe he will. Maybe they both end up taking the "gerald green path".

I'd say the back of their roster hasn't benefitted from a ton of luck. between strus injuring himself, edwards not being able to shoot, langford, maybe nesmith... sure add waters and green to the list and maybe some others (e.g. Semi). There were alot of roster spots dedicated to players with low likelihood of making an impact - and they didn't. on the plus side they didn't fill the roster out with vetrans driving us into the tax that also wouldn't have made a differnce.

as you said, the window is open now. The majority of the rotation locked in for the short term - it will be intersting if they try and stash a lottery ticket on the very backend of the roster. I am not sure who fills in spots 10, 11, 12 - you certainly don't want to change the chemistry in the locker room.

 

[lexrageorge]

In the nicest possible tone... in my post you quoted, I acknowledged being reminded by WBCD that I was being unrealistic and further stated I was being greedy. Thanks for piling on though. Further, I didn't question the quality of the previous drafting (I have no issue with it), my thoughts were merely about the development of the raw players who were in fact drafted/in house. I think Langsford/Nesmith have enough physical talent to be solid pieces (as well as Strus, Green who were in Cs uniforms) and merely wish that one could have been ready to contribute now that the window is unequivocally open. It was a throw away post of sorts in this thread, sparked by the fact that one of those players was part of this deal. The Bane comment was a compliment to those in this forum who were upset about him from the get go - and yes a small poke at Ainge for missing on him when he was right in his hands. [That comment didn't belong in this thread, sorry.]

WRT the trade, I think it was a 100% win for the Cs - the player extracted by Stevens is a perfect fit for this team for this year. The contract term remaining is what justifies any risk from the pick swap.

Not piling on, but I will push back on the notion that the Celtics had anything to do with the lack of development of Langford or the others you noted. It's fair to be frustrated at some of these misses, but some were just never going to be NBA players no matter what (Edwards, Waters, Fall, Young).

Langford was frequently injured, and that trend has continued with his new home as well. So it's hard to see how the team could have done a better job with him; at some point, he needed to get on the court and seize the opportunity, and that simply didn't happen. I'm skeptical it will ever happen with him, or, if it does, it will be so long into his career that there was little hope he would ever do it with the team that drafted him. I will be forever pissed that Sacramento unexpectedly had their best record in something like 10 years that one season, and then promptly went back into the tank the following year. Tyler Herro would have been a really nice add for this team.

Similarly, you could perhaps criticize Ainge for keeping a healthy Javonte Green over an injured Max Strus, but that's been litigated on this forum already.

And the book on the Celtics getting young players is not entirely closed. Begarin could be a nice rotation piece in the right timeframe, and we may yet see growth from Nesmith.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Not piling on, but I will push back on the notion that the Celtics had anything to do with the lack of development of Langford or the others you noted. It's fair to be frustrated at some of these misses, but some were just never going to be NBA players no matter what (Edwards, Waters, Fall, Young).

Langford was frequently injured, and that trend has continued with his new home as well. So it's hard to see how the team could have done a better job with him; at some point, he needed to get on the court and seize the opportunity, and that simply didn't happen. I'm skeptical it will ever happen with him, or, if it does, it will be so long into his career that there was little hope he would ever do it with the team that drafted him. I will be forever pissed that Sacramento unexpectedly had their best record in something like 10 years that one season, and then promptly went back into the tank the following year. Tyler Herro would have been a really nice add for this team.

Similarly, you could perhaps criticize Ainge for keeping a healthy Javonte Green over an injured Max Strus, but that's been litigated on this forum already.

And the book on the Celtics getting young players is not entirely closed. Begarin could be a nice rotation piece in the right timeframe, and we may yet see growth from Nesmith.

Nothing perceived as piling on about your post...

Choosing a Green over a Strus over a Parker is part of team building, and there are so many variables in play in those moments (position, budget, role, personality/chemistry fit, ceiling/floor, timing, injuries, contract terms, etc.) that I tend to accept that part of things until patterns emerge. I do think it's fair to ask if internal evaluation is up to par if lesser performing players are being retained while those let go find success elsewhere (as a pattern) - and yes, to question development of those retained as well. Injuries are just that, can't make the club from the tub as it were.

Agreed, this current crop of youth isn't a finished story yet - though how much are the Cs responsible for the current development of Begarin for example? I think we are seeing 90-95+% of the PP ceiling. Nesmith I can be patient with - if he clicks, he's a nice 2 way player that fits the desired team profile. I don't harbor any illusions about the depth on the bench lower than them.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Just to summarize the expected value of the pick swap (again, Boston gets a pick so the way to look at this is the worst case net result), @ZMart100 calculated a 4-5% reduction in the chance that the Celtics select an All-Star and using the Ringer's expected wins for each draft slot chart, we calculated that the C's could expect to lose around 1.5 wins, six years forward for this aspect of the White trade.

Given how the last six years have gone - its remarkable how many things were dramatically different than they are now and not just in the NBA it seems a bit extreme to worry about what is going to happen in another half dozen years. Especially since the Celtics are advancing in the playoffs and White's full contribution has yet to be revealed. YRMV.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I am with you on the overall value of the pick swap and it being a lot less than the actual Derrick White.

That said, the risk around the pick swap is not so much about average expected value---it is that htere is a very small chance it is a disatrous outcome. I know that is statistically reflected in the average, and I highlight because people are I expect reacting to the couple per cent probability we lose the second pick AND it's a Ja Morant level second pick.

My personal reaction to that, six years out, is that maximizing the chance we win a title the next three-four years with the Jays is worth a great deal more than that unlikely risk.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I am with you on the overall value of the pick swap and it being a lot less than the actual Derrick White.

That said, the risk around the pick swap is not so much about average expected value---it is that htere is a very small chance it is a disatrous outcome. I know that is statistically reflected in the average, and I highlight because people are I expect reacting to the couple per cent probability we lose the second pick AND it's a Ja Morant level second pick.

My personal reaction to that, six years out, is that maximizing the chance we win a title the next three-four years with the Jays is worth a great deal more than that unlikely risk.

Good point on on the extreme tail outcome because that's where humans tend to focus.

Let's put it bluntly - would people be ok with the prospect of missing out on the 2028 version of Tatum/Luka/Morant for multiple shots to win a championship over the next few years?

 

[Smokey Joe]

Good point on on the extreme tail outcome because that's where humans tend to focus.

Let's put it bluntly - would people be ok with the prospect of missing out on the 2028 version of Tatum/Luka/Morant for multiple shots to win a championship over the next few years?

You are not taking the probabilities into account in your question. It is more like Would people be ok with the unlikely prospect of missing out on the 2028 version of Tatum/Luka/Morant for multiple shots to win a championship over the next few years.
And the answer is, of course, yes.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

You are not taking the probabilities into account in your question. It is more like Would people be ok with the unlikely prospect of missing out on the 2028 version of Tatum/Luka/Morant for multiple shots to win a championship over the next few years.
And the answer is, of course, yes.

Fair - I was just trying to manage to the most extreme outcome per @PedroKsBambino's post. I know my own answer regardless but I can't blame those forward thinking types who want to see the 2030s Cs have the best shot to be competitive. I am fairly certain that an enterprising front office can manage around the potential lower pick in 2028 and even if they miss out on that era's Morant/Donicic/Tatum, they may still end up competing.