Celtics Trade Deadline Game Thread

DJnVa

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I'm pleased that Jaylen Brown wasn't thrown in for George or Butler, because there's a pretty good chance that in two years he's better than either of them. This isn't the year to go all-in, although it's a pity that Ainge couldn't turn Bradley into something useful. Smart, Brown and Rozier have all improved notably with Bradley's playing time.
There's a "pretty good chance" Jaylen Brown is a top 15 player in 2 years?
 

Light-Tower-Power

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We need to stop considering Mike Ortiz, Jr. a legitimate source.

Also, unfortunately, I think Bleedred is the real loser of the deadline. PG trade away from being the SoSH Celtics insider.
 

Drocca

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I'm pleased that Jaylen Brown wasn't thrown in for George or Butler, because there's a pretty good chance that in two years he's better than either of them. This isn't the year to go all-in, although it's a pity that Ainge couldn't turn Bradley into something useful. Smart, Brown and Rozier have all improved notably with Bradley's playing time.
Wow. Wow.

Jaylen Brown has been surprisingly good for his age as a rookie. But "pretty good chance" that he's better than either George or Butler makes a few big time mistakes:

1. Seriously undervaluing how good both of those players are
2. Like, seriously. You are suggesting that in two years there's a pretty good chance that Jaylen Brown is a Top 15 NBA player.
3. Probability Outcomes - there is a chance he is a Top 15 Player (though not in two years, see #4), but there is not a "pretty good chance," because, if there is, then we can say the same thing about a ton of other guys and all of a sudden it doesn't make mathematical sense.
4. His age. It's going to take him longer than two years to get there.
 

Big John

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I would have liked to see a minor deal for some rebounding help, but I'm relieved that Ainge didn't sell the farm for Butler or PG13.

I love this draft, and believe that there will be 4-5 future all-stars in the first 10 picks. 2018 isn't bad either, with Ayton, Porter, Doncic and Bamba at the top.

My only disappointment is that the Nets did not unload Lopez along with Bogdanovic.
 

Sprowl

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There's a "pretty good chance" Jaylen Brown is a top 15 player in 2 years?
There is a pretty good chance that George and Butler will no longer be top 15 players in two years. I think both have peaked and are on the way down the slippery slope to expensive mediocrity at a position where the league has an abundance of talent.

There's a pretty good chance that Jaylen Brown is a top 50 player in 2019.
 

snowmanny

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Okay, I've heard this said so much ... what are they worth?
It depends what you're measuring, right? It's possible that Jimmy Butler is likely to be more valuable over the next X years than the two draft picks BUT the odds of winning a title with the two draft picks is greater than the odds of winning with Jimmy Butler (because adding Butler doesn't get you there but hitting the draft pick lottery does).

I'm not claiming to know the answer.
 

RedOctober3829

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Reports were that it would have taken 3 good players plus the 2017 pick for Paul George and that he wants to go to LA in a year and a half. You would have done that trade?
"Reports" that are coming from somebody that writes for a random sports blog. Not exactly coming from Woj or anybody remotely tied in to the league. My post was just to point out that there are risks involved in both approaches to building a championship team. There are advantages to cashing in some of the chips for an established star player. PG can say all he wants about how he'd love to go to LA but when the contract offer from Boston is higher than LA's we'll find out exactly how much home means to him.
 

Drocca

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There is a pretty good chance that George and Butler will no longer be top 15 players in two years. I think both have peaked and are on the way down the slippery slope to expensive mediocrity at a position where the league has an abundance of talent.

There's a pretty good chance that Jaylen Brown is a top 50 player in 2019.
Ok, this makes way more sense. I just misread your post.

You were comparing Jaylen + 2 years to George & Butler + 2 years not Jaylen + 2 years with George & Butler now.

That makes sense. I disagree but it's not as crazy.
 

cheech13

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Wait: did they offer both picks for each of them? Sorry if I missed that.
Sorry if that wasn't clear. One of the Nets pick, be it '17 or '18, was never getting George or Butler. The hold up was how much other stuff needed to be included to get something done. Ergo, those picks don't have more value than established NBA superstars.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Woj just said Celtics had both Nets picks on the table.</p>&mdash; Jason Patt (@Bulls_Jay) <a href="">February 23, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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gammoseditor

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"Reports" that are coming from somebody that writes for a random sports blog. Not exactly coming from Woj or anybody remotely tied in to the league. My post was just to point out that there are risks involved in both approaches to building a championship team. There are advantages to cashing in some of the chips for an established star player. PG can say all he wants about how he'd love to go to LA but when the contract offer from Boston is higher than LA's we'll find out exactly how much home means to him.
But no one is saying they could have made a reasonable trade for an established star. It sounds like you wanted them to make a trade that wasn't available. Which star do you think they should have traded for and what do you think they could have gotten that player for?
 

moly99

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The advantage of draft picks as opposed to a veteran player is the years of control. If we traded the Brooklyn picks for Paul George, we only get George for the remainder of his contract. At that point he is free to jump ship to the Lakers. If we keep the Brooklyn picks we have those guys under team control for 8 years.

There are two ways of trying to win a championship. You can cash in your chips for a short run at a title. Or you can build a really good team for 15+ years like the Spurs have done and pick up a ring every few years.

Right now the Celtics are built to follow the Spurs model. We have a great coaching staff, a team full of players who have bought into a system, a lot of quality young players, and incoming draft picks to give us fresh blood to maintain the team for a decade. If a player like Kevin Durant wants to sign with the Celtics they need to go after him. But until a favorable situation presents itself the team should stay the course.
 

ifmanis5

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How can this possibly be true?
Fultz has a very good chance to be better than both. No guarantees of course but he's way ahead of where Butler and George were at the same age. So are the other guys they are looking at in the top 3. They are more talented.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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The advantage of draft picks as opposed to a veteran player is the years of control.
True, but there is another side to this that I feel like is often missing - those years of control are, in the beginning, years where the young player is not good enough to get you anywhere near a championship.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Fultz has a very good chance to be better than both. No guarantees of course but he's way ahead of where Butler and George were at the same age. So are the other guys they are looking at in the top 3. They are more talented.
But you just turned their draft pick into Fultz when the odds are they will not be in a position to draft him.

We seem to always be looking at the best case scenario for the picks (landing #1 overall) and the best case scenario for the player we pick while ignoring how good established NBA superstars are.

Edit - Disagree on the other guys in the Top 3. Again, all of our projections of college players and high school seniors are off the charts while we claim Jimmy Butler and Paul George to be on the decline.
 

tims4wins

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Just thought this was worth mentioning with regard to cashing in etc. Go back to the 2006-2007 Sonics, who won 31 games but somehow ended up getting the 2nd pick.

The following year, with Durant, they lost 60 games.
They drafted Westbrook... and lost 59 games.
Only when they drafted Harden & Ibaka did they break through and win 50 games the following year.

The point is that it takes time, and the Celtics are adding these picks to an already good team. I don't particularly care if the current core is on the downside by the time the picks develop, because they will still have a ton of talent. They are poised to add a top-4 talent this year (likely top 3, hopefully better), and then another top talent in 2018 (should be top 10 or better), and then they have the Memphis pick in 2019... I mean, yes, it will take some lotto luck, but mostly if they just continue to select good players (like they apparently did with Smart and Brown), they should be really really good over the next several years. And while they may never have an MVP type - which is what most NBA championship teams have - they could potentially be the Pistons, maybe even deeper.
 

dcmissle

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The advantage of draft picks as opposed to a veteran player is the years of control. If we traded the Brooklyn picks for Paul George, we only get George for the remainder of his contract. At that point he is free to jump ship to the Lakers. If we keep the Brooklyn picks we have those guys under team control for 8 years.

There are two ways of trying to a championship. You can cash in your chips for a short run at a title. Or you can build a really good team for 15+ years like the Spurs have done and pick up a ring every few years.

Right now the Celtics are built to follow the Spurs model. We have a great coaching staff, a team full of players who have bought into a system, a lot of quality young players, and incoming draft picks to give us fresh blood to maintain the team for a decade. If a player like Kevin Durant wants to sign with the Celtics they need to go after him. But until a favorable situation presents itself the team should stay the course.
And as Doerr noted, at best this year, they are a finals loser. Fans of many franchises would part with their first born to be a finals losers. Happily, the Celtics are not like many franchises.

Ainge may be the best GM in town.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm guessing they're also really high on Ante Zizic.
If he were in this years draft, there is at least one site that projected him in the lottery. Zizic isn't going anywhere. What is very encouraging about him his his drastic improvement in FT%, with the hopes he can add a 3 point shot to his game soon.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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If he were in this years draft, there is at least one site that projected him in the lottery. Zizic isn't going anywhere. What is very encouraging about him his his drastic improvement in FT%, with the hopes he can add a 3 point shot to his game soon.
I just watched some of his latest highlights and he looks like he bulked up big time. He looks huge. The prospect of a strong and athletic 7 footer coming over next season is definitely exciting.
 

Cesar Crespo

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While Yabusele is playing in China and looks kinda robotic and has probably lost value but who knows. Can't really tell anything with the level of competition. Although he lost value the moment he was drafted too high.
 

cheech13

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Even with the worst record in the league you only have a 25% chance at the first pick and statistically you're more likely to end up picking fourth. In fact, the probability of drafting an All-NBA level talent when ending the season with the worst record is ~10%. Yes once in a generation a team gets Lebron James. If that's your baseline expectation more than likely you're going to be disappointed. That doesn't mean you have to trade the pick, but be realistic of what the most likely scenario is.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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We seem to always be looking at the best case scenario for the picks (landing #1 overall) and the best case scenario for the player we pick while ignoring how good established NBA superstars are.

Edit - Disagree on the other guys in the Top 3. Again, all of our projections of college players and high school seniors are off the charts while we claim Jimmy Butler and Paul George to be on the decline.
Not trying to argue with you alone but while you correctly point out that there's a prospect humping side to those of us who are okay with DA standing pat (though nothing like baseball prospects), there's also a rational side.

While PG and Butler may not decline sharply, we know their ceiling. And fortunately or unfortunately, that ceiling is that a team built solely around them is not going to the promised land.

The easiest way to win in the NBA is to get a top-5 player (with other top 20 players around him). The easiest way to get a top-5 player is to get a top 2 (maybe 3, maybe 4) draft pick.

That's not saying that every high draft pick is going to be a top-5 player. And having multiple high draft picks in a row doesn't mean anything if a team is unlucky in the draft year. (I.e., look at the Lakers, where 2, 2, and 3 could end up being Russell, Ingram, and Ball).

But it's sure a hell a lot easier to do it than drafting outside the top 5 every year.
 

nighthob

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There is a pretty good chance that George and Butler will no longer be top 15 players in two years. I think both have peaked and are on the way down the slippery slope to expensive mediocrity at a position where the league has an abundance of talent.

There's a pretty good chance that Jaylen Brown is a top 50 player in 2019.
I agree with this, Brown's 20 year old performance is favorably comparable to Butler and George's second year performance. That's not to say that he ever reaches their current levels of production, but in the final year of his rookie deal there's a very real chance that he's outperforming both of those guys. And that's a good player to have locked up for the ten years of team control the current CBA gives you.
 

Drocca

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Even with the worst record in the league you only have a 25% chance at the first pick and statistically you're more likely to end up picking fourth. In fact, the probability of drafting an All-NBA level talent when ending the season with the worst record is ~10%. Yes once in a generation a team gets Lebron James. If that's your baseline expectation more than likely you're going to be disappointed. That doesn't mean you have to trade the pick, but be realistic of what the most likely scenario is.
Exactly. And to the poster who suggesting that waiting for a top three pick is the only way to build a championship (a'la the "Spurs" model). It has only worked once so far in the past 16 years.

Since the 1999 draft, the following teams have gotten top three picks:

Lakers (twice, after their run)
Miami (once, they drafted Michael Beasley, didn't affect anything)
Nets (twice, nothing)
OK St. (twice, both superstars no championship & neither player currently with them)
Orlando (twice, nothing)
Pelicans (once, nothing)
76ers (4 times, nothing)
Portland (1 time, nothing)
Raptors (once, nothing)
Rockets (once, nothing)
Utah (twice, nothing)
Warriors (once, but no not believe Mike Dunleavy played a role in their Championship)
Wizards (4 times, nothing)
Wolves (3 times, nothing)
Boston (once, but Jaylen Brown did not play a role in the Championship)
Bucks (2, nothing)
Bulls (5 times, nothing)
Cavs (4 times, CHAMPIONSHIP!!!)
Clippers (3 times, nothing)
Denver (1 time, nothing)
Detroit (1 time, Darko played no role in their Championship)
Grizzlies (3 times, nothing)
Hawks (3 times, nothing)
Hornets (4 times, nothing)
 

PedroKsBambino

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Ainge may be the best GM in town.
He might be second-best----it's insane to suggest anyone is in the same league as the guy with the hooded sweatshirt. Though I suppose one could note he's in a different town...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Hard to speculate given we don't really know what offers are on the table. However I will take the other side of anyone who thinks these picks are worth more than Butler or George. Yes, we do know their the ceilings for the latter two but we also know they are, say to be fair, top twenty level talents. Nothing of the sort can be said of whomever the C's have the luck of selecting at one through four this offseason and recent NBA drafts have shown how hard it is to get an actual read on where these guys should actually be taken.

Finally, if the argument is that you weren't winning anyway, forget watching the NBA. There will almost always be teams who are loaded with talent and should be the odds-on favorite to win the title. That doesn't mean you don't take the chance to incrementally improve an already competitive squad. Incremental improvements are good, put you in a spot to take advantage of a break and are the highest odds strategy of getting better, especially with the new CBA.
 

bowiac

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I agree with this, Brown's 20 year old performance is favorably comparable to Butler and George's second year performance. That's not to say that he ever reaches their current levels of production, but in the final year of his rookie deal there's a very real chance that he's outperforming both of those guys. And that's a good player to have locked up for the ten years of team control the current CBA gives you.
This isn't close to being accurate. Butler and George were both very good players by year 2. Jaylen is a promising rookie, but is still nowhere near that level. You can pick whatever metric you want - it's not close.
 

Drocca

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Exactly. And to the poster who suggesting that waiting for a top three pick is the only way to build a championship (a'la the "Spurs" model). It has only worked once so far in the past 16 years.

Since the 1999 draft, the following teams have gotten top three picks:

Lakers (twice, after their run)
Miami (once, they drafted Michael Beasley, didn't affect anything)
Nets (twice, nothing)
OK St. (twice, both superstars no championship & neither player currently with them)
Orlando (twice, nothing)
Pelicans (once, nothing)
76ers (4 times, nothing)
Portland (1 time, nothing)
Raptors (once, nothing)
Rockets (once, nothing)
Utah (twice, nothing)
Warriors (once, but no not believe Mike Dunleavy played a role in their Championship)
Wizards (4 times, nothing)
Wolves (3 times, nothing)
Boston (once, but Jaylen Brown did not play a role in the Championship)
Bucks (2, nothing)
Bulls (5 times, nothing)
Cavs (4 times, CHAMPIONSHIP!!!)
Clippers (3 times, nothing)
Denver (1 time, nothing)
Detroit (1 time, Darko played no role in their Championship)
Grizzlies (3 times, nothing)
Hawks (3 times, nothing)
Hornets (4 times, nothing)
Do you guys see my point here? The mythical Spurs path is just that - a myth. And the reason is because there is an NBA Draft every year but there is not a Tim Duncan or Lebron James every year and some years there's a Steph Curry and you don't even get it right.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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A list of bad teams that tried to build through the lottery is irrelevant to this Celtics team.
 

BigSoxFan

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Do you guys see my point here? The mythical Spurs path is just that - a myth. And the reason is because there is an NBA Draft every year but there is not a Tim Duncan or Lebron James every year and some years there's a Steph Curry and you don't even get it right.
I'd like to see the overlap between the people who want to keep and make all these picks and the people who think Ainge is a mediocre drafter.
 

gammoseditor

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Do you guys see my point here? The mythical Spurs path is just that - a myth. And the reason is because there is an NBA Draft every year but there is not a Tim Duncan or Lebron James every year and some years there's a Steph Curry and you don't even get it right.
What path are you advocating? There's no clear strategic path that leads to NBA championships. The path is to luck into an all time great. How many championships have been won over the last 30 years without a player that is top 25 all time? And in those cases most of them at least had a top 5 player in the NBA for that season. Paul George is not a top 5 player in today's NBA.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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What path are you advocating? There's no clear strategic path that leads to NBA championships. The path is to luck into an all time great. How many championships have been won over the last 30 years without a player that is top 25 all time? And in those cases most of them at least had a top 5 player in the NBA for that season. Paul George is not a top 5 player in today's NBA.
I'm advocating not overvaluing the picks. If you can turn the picks into Top 15 talents, you do it.
 

gammoseditor

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I'm advocating not overvaluing the picks. If you can turn the picks into Top 15 talents, you do it.
Top 15 talents, that are outside the top 5, don't win championships as the best player on the team. And it's not clear we could have gotten one without giving up picks and a combination of guys in our current starting lineup.
 

heavyde050

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This isn't close to being accurate. Butler and George were both very good players by year 2. Jaylen is a promising rookie, but is still nowhere near that level. You can pick whatever metric you want - it's not close.
Is it possible the poster meant at age 20 and not Year 2?
Jimmy Butler was not a very good player by Year 2.
You are probably referring to either year 3 or 4 when he became very good.
Under 9 points a game is not very good in the NBA.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/butleji01.html

Edit - he was 23 in his second year and won MIP as a 25 year old in his 4th year.
 

ifmanis5

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We seem to always be looking at the best case scenario for the picks (landing #1 overall) and the best case scenario for the player we pick while ignoring how good established NBA superstars are.
PG and JB aren't superstars. Westbrook, Curry, LeBron, those are Superstars. Giannis, Kawhi, Towns will be soon. I'm preferring Danny's talent, cost control and long term planning approach here. There is no urgency of now and no need to part with top-3 lottery tickets for non-Superstars.
 

smastroyin

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I get the philosophy, but it's not as though that strategy doesn't have its own risks. Finding a trading partner that has the player(s) you want isn't a sure things, and neither are draft picks. And, at some stage, this little-engine-that-could team approach might break down.

Particularly this season, the Celtics seemed primed to be in a spot to make a run for a 1.5-year rental. They spent half the season getting into position, and adding that special piece could have made this a year to get to The Finals. Now, it's as though they've conceded that they know they're too far away from contending for the title; and the message to the players is that this season isn't going to be one that gets them over the hump
I'm talking more about trading Rozier/Yabu and picks for role players kinds of trades. Like, why bother with those right now? People want a rebounder, but a cheap one dimensional rebounder may not even fit into the rotations that Stevens wants to play. People talk about Tucker but maybe Ainge and Stevens think Brown has progressed enough they'd rather not take away his minutes. etc. and PJ Tucker doesn't make you a better team than the Cavs.
 

queenb

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The advantage of draft picks as opposed to a veteran player is the years of control. If we traded the Brooklyn picks for Paul George, we only get George for the remainder of his contract. At that point he is free to jump ship to the Lakers. If we keep the Brooklyn picks we have those guys under team control for 8 years.

There are two ways of trying to a championship. You can cash in your chips for a short run at a title. Or you can build a really good team for 15+ years like the Spurs have done and pick up a ring every few years.

Right now the Celtics are built to follow the Spurs model. We have a great coaching staff, a team full of players who have bought into a system, a lot of quality young players, and incoming draft picks to give us fresh blood to maintain the team for a decade. If a player like Kevin Durant wants to sign with the Celtics they need to go after him. But until a favorable situation presents itself the team should stay the course.
This is really well-said. Both paths are valid, but Danny deserves credit for making his name on the short-run approach and embracing the long-term when appropriate. It's just good solid situational football.

While PG and Butler may not decline sharply, we know their ceiling. And fortunately or unfortunately, that ceiling is that a team built solely around them is not going to the promised land.
It's hard for me to be dispassionate about the Celtics so I'm trying to imagine either Butler or George heading to a similar team and how I would feel about their chances. (Toronto, Washington, Memphis, etc.) In my mind, if any of those teams had to give up 2-3 starters or major contributors in exchange for those guys, I would admire their pluck but not see them as real threats to CLE or GSW. Cs are better-coached and deeper, but not so much that I think they're above this group.
 

the1andonly3003

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I really wished Danny improved the roster spots currently held by Zeller, Young, Green and Mickey.

What use are all those 2nd round picks? Aren't those supposed to be used for small deals, incremental improvements?
 

rhopkins2323

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Do you guys see my point here? The mythical Spurs path is just that - a myth. And the reason is because there is an NBA Draft every year but there is not a Tim Duncan or Lebron James every year and some years there's a Steph Curry and you don't even get it right.
Few points on this

One, I would say Danny is a better GM than the guys putting those teams together.

Second, those teams sucked at the time of the draft

Third, you have to trust your scouting skills. If DA believes in 2 or 3 players, keeping the picks is a good idea.

And lastly, how many of these teams had the opportunity to have 4 players picked in top 6 on team? With the potential for 3 of these players to be top 3 picks.

No one has ever had this quality of a roster while adding these picks.
 

Manzivino

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They can still trade the Nets pick in the summer if a superstar hits the market. It's not like all the names are off the table, nobody got traded today.
 

bowiac

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Is it possible the poster meant at age 20 and not Year 2?
Jimmy Butler was not a very good player by Year 2.
You are probably referring to either year 3 or 4 when he became very good.
Under 9 points a game is not very good in the NBA.
I'm referring to year 2. He played 82 games, shot 38% from three, and was one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. That's a very good player. Scoring is nice, but it's just one part of the game.