Well, some of this depends on what precisely one means by "top 10 assets". But at least one element of being an asset is trade value, and Rozier's trade value is far, far below that of either pick. If Danny could move into the top 10 of this year's draft by offering Rozier+27th, he'd make that move in a nanosecond.
If Danny could move into the top 10 of any draft for Rozier+27th, Terry would be on a plane faster than something fast.
I think of these lists this way, the Celtics have been "caught" deflating their basketballs and the league is going to take away one asset from you.
Please please don't take away:
I had the same thought, but maybe Rozier cheap for one year would be easier to get a good return for than Horford for two at huge money (he also has a 15% trade kicker).
Horford would net you more than Rozier even with the trade kicker. Rozier is just not worth all that much. BOS would be lucky to get a mid first round pick for him. Horford would easily get you something better than that.
Then its pretty much
Given the thread title, I think it makes much more sense to think of it as:
Why wouldn't we be thinking about it as Celtics focused?
I edited to explain. Because it’s “assets” which has a meaning.
Yeah, I started this thread with trade value in mind after factoring in age and contract status. With that in mind, I go:
Right, but wouldn't we still be thinking of it from a Celtics view?
In a vacuum, Al was a better player than Rozier this season.
The team would be much worse having to pick from the available big men free agents though. Capela and Gordon would be matched. Then you are looking at Nurkic or Favors? Horford is so damn valuable to this team, even at 30 million.
Except, he wouldn't really gain much salary flexibility. If Horford just disappeared into the ether, Ainge would have around 22M to spend to replace Horford, Smart and Baynes. And if he signed back either Smart/Baynes or both, that would eat into that 22M. He'd also now be very likely to be operating as an under the cap team, so he'd give him the midlevel(or mini-midlevel) for the smaller room exception and also lose the biannual exception.
I believe your overvaluing past production and projecting future production vs. the only known here: the liability.
If we are focused solely on trade value that is one thing. If the question is which guy suffering a Hayward type injury would be more devatstating to the Celtics, it is Horford no question. And that would be true even if you add in the loss of Kyrie. (ie: losing Kyrie and Horford would hurt the team more than losing Kyrie and Rozier).
As I said, it’s a valid way to look at it. Any Gm who doesn’t consider both lenses is totally incompetent.
Look I don't want to lose anybody for nothing (Al or Terry) because we deflated a bunch of Spaldings.
Right, someone is going to pay Terry a lot. Probably more than Marcus Smart. Just the fact Rozier is definitely going to OPT OUT next season tells me the Celtics are getting a great deal this season
I feel like the burden of proof is on you to actually explain this. He was just the Celtics starting PG and he was not at all disappointing.
Agreed but that wasn't the thread's question. It's about total value (contracts included). You're moving goal posts here.
I don't know that I am moving goalposts. The thread is called "top 10 assets", which is to me is ambiguous.
I would also take Theis. Via the Celtics value lens, he fulfills a need at a performance level not too dissimilar to the expected value of the pick. The certainty is worth more to me at this stage.
I wouldn't hesitate to say no.
Because I think the Celtics are in a win now mode, I certainly would say no. Plus Theis is our only depth upfront.
I wonder what pick gets you the average first year VORP of Theis?
OK, now do the same with taking Horford off the roster.
Flipping this around: if I could move the 27th pick for someone who could contribute 20 average-ish minutes a night next season at a position of need, I’d do that in a cocaine heartbeat.
There's value in a known quantity. Theis can do a lot of good things on both ends of the floor.
Modestly more minutes would put him at 20. He played about 15 minutes a game this year. Just seems easily replaceable and a finished product. This is also a deep draft where there could be a lot of interesting players still around. I guess he does have that cheap AF contract though.
This illustrates my point about the need for two lists. I agree that most teams would rather have the pick, but the C’s would almost certainly rather have Theis.
