Celtics' top ten assets

Koufax

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OK, here's my revised list:

1. 2017 BRK
2. Jaylen
3. 2018 BRK
4. Thomas
5. Horford
6. Zizic
7. Olynyk
8. Smart
9. Bradley
10.Crowder

The Celtics desperately need a rebounder / rim protector, Zizic is the team's best hope in that department and he's cheap. Olynyk has proven that he can light it up in a key playoff game, Crowder has not.
 

DJnVa

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The Celtics desperately need a rebounder / rim protector, Zizic is the team's best hope in that department and he's cheap. Olynyk has proven that he can light it up in a key playoff game, Crowder has not.
That seems harsh.

Crowder averaged 14.3 points and 6.6 boards in the series.
 

Koufax

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Well maybe it is harsh. My perspective is that of an impassioned fan who was disappointed when shots didn't go in. You caused me to go back and figure out that his shooting percentage in these playoffs is 4.5% lower than it was during the regular season. Maybe that's a typical drop-off because of the pressure of playoffs, but it seemed very disappointing as it occurred. The worst was in games 4 - 6 of the WA series, where he went 2 for 9, 6 for 15 and 3 for 9. 22 missed shots was a lot from a guy who was an important scoring option during the regular season. I love me regular season Jae. Playoff Ae, not so much.
 

mcpickl

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OK, here's my revised list:

1. 2017 BRK
2. Jaylen
3. 2018 BRK
4. Thomas
5. Horford
6. Zizic
7. Olynyk
8. Smart
9. Bradley
10.Crowder

The Celtics desperately need a rebounder / rim protector, Zizic is the team's best hope in that department and he's cheap. Olynyk has proven that he can light it up in a key playoff game, Crowder has not.
I'm higher on Olynyk than most Celtics fans, but the Celtics only have his RFA rights. The Celtics could let him walk for nothing if he gets an absurd offer, or they need the cap space.

I couldn't put him ahead of any of Smart, Bradley or Crowder.
 

Koufax

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In general I agree. However, I can't get over his having traded away Kendrick Perkins for Jeff Green when the Celtics were on a roll. I realize KP wasn't Shaq, but the team chemistry went down the drain in the middle of what appeared to be a promising season, and for what? Jeff stinking Green? Oh well, we got the Memphis No. 1 for him, so there's that.
 

nighthob

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Perkins was injured at the time of the trade, and was never again the same after leaving Boston. As mediocre as Jeff Green was, the stopgap center (Krstic) and two firsts they got for Perkins was about as good a return as you could hope for. Even if they did waste the first pick on Fab Melo.
 

Brand Name

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Moving the Line
Don't forget, Kristic/Green/Melo for Perkins/Robinson still has payment for Boston in the future, though more Green specifically since Nenad had his final NBA games with the C's that season, and Melo was traded for Donte Greene, who was waived prior to the 2013-2014 season with zero games played in Beantown. In the following sense, we can't truly evaluate the long reach this deal had on the franchise just yet. Before we get to that though, don't forget the Celtics got the 32nd pick in the 2013 Draft (originally Charlotte's, acquired by OKC for Byron Mullens), given Green's heart condition, which was used as part of the sign-and-trade for Courtney Lee. Lee was later traded to Memphis in January 2014 with a 2016 2nd (52nd overall, later traded to Utah) for Jerryd Bayless, who signed with Milwaukee in the summer of 2014, and Ryan Gomes, who was waived immediately. So that ends those two particular aspects, but what Green has given the green, well, it ain't easy. But here goes:

Celtics got Tayshaun Prince and Austin Rivers for Green in the three-team deal in January 2015 deal with the Grizz and Pelicans. They also got the 2019 1-8 protected, 2020 1-6 2020 protected, 2021 unprotected 1st rounder from Memphis in this deal.

3 days later, Rivers was sent to the Clippers as part of another 3-teamer, this time including the Suns. Boston's return Chris Douglas-Roberts, 2017 LAC 2nd (#56 overall this year), and Shavlik Randolph. Randolph was claimed off waivers by the Nuggets after five games in his second go with Boston. Douglas-Roberts was waived three days after acquisition.

Tayshaun Prince was traded a month later in the IT deal, which also netted the Celtics Gigi Datome and Jerebko. Two of these players are obviously still on the current roster. Not going to discuss the transferred Cleveland pick here, since this being kept C's return/transaction specific.

So, because Trader Danny dealt Perk, and the accompanying transactions, we now have IT and Jerebko, with future returns of a late 2nd coming this year, and the undetermined pick and year of the Memphis 1st. Indirectly, Perkins has gotten Ainge another pick involving Perry Jones III and the Jazz, but that's technically unrelated to this exercise.
 
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Toe Nash

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Well maybe it is harsh. My perspective is that of an impassioned fan who was disappointed when shots didn't go in. You caused me to go back and figure out that his shooting percentage in these playoffs is 4.5% lower than it was during the regular season. Maybe that's a typical drop-off because of the pressure of playoffs, but it seemed very disappointing as it occurred. The worst was in games 4 - 6 of the WA series, where he went 2 for 9, 6 for 15 and 3 for 9. 22 missed shots was a lot from a guy who was an important scoring option during the regular season. I love me regular season Jae. Playoff Ae, not so much.
Or a 4.5% drop is well within the normal distribution for a set of 14 games against quality opponents. If Olynyk had missed just one shot that he made this playoffs, his FG% would be 0.3% higher than his regular season FG%...pratically identical. He had one hot game and it's great that it happened in a game 7, but it doesn't mean that will ever happen again.
 

kazuneko

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1. 2017 BRK
2. Jaylen
3. 2018 BRK
4. Thomas
5. Horford
6. Crowder
7. Smart
8. Bradley
9. Zizic
10. 2019 MEM
Anyone thing this order hasn't changed?
I'm very high on Jaylen yet still think the 2018 pick should be ranked higher than him. There are at least three players in that draft that have MVP-level (Porter, Ayton and Doncic) potential, and the Cs have as good a chance as anyone to land a top 3 pick. This is a stars league, and there is nothing more valuable than a young, cost-controlled superstar.
I think both picks have so much potential value that it would be a mistake to trade either, really for anyone - except in the very unlikely case that an MVP caliber player somehow becomes available on the trade market.
 

Big John

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I understand that folks are discussing players and draft picks,. but my 3 top assets are Ainge, Stevens and Zarren.
 

moly99

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The Celtics desperately need a rebounder / rim protector, Zizic is the team's best hope in that department and he's cheap.
The problem is that while the Celtics need an aggregate improvement in rebounding and interior defense, that's because we have an undersized team overall. Starting a very short point guard and a 6'1" shooting guard also weakens the C's rebounding numbers.

The rebounds/48 difference between Russell Westbrook (14.8) and Isaiah Thomas (2.7) is greater than the difference between Andre Drummond (22.2) and Al Horford (10.2). One player is not going to fix our rebounding woes when the Celtics have terrible rebounders starting at multiple positions.

Interior defense is a similar problem. Al Horford is a really good center; we are not going to find anyone better than him unless it is Demarcus Cousins. We could sign a traditional big to play alongside Horford, but the team clearly prefers stretch fours and fives. Andre Drummond would fix some of our interior problems, but he would cause lots of problems on offense and the Celtics staff obviously does not think the trade-off is worth it.

The Nets picks are our most valuable assets because they are our only realistic way to achieve dramatic upgrades over the current roster. We already have a good team, but to beat the Cavs and Warriors we need to pick up a hall of fame level player or two.
 
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nighthob

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Well, Bradley is going to be traded over the summer, and likely for an upgrade at the PF spot.
 

BigSoxFan

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Bumping this thread with trade. My new order would probably be the following, excluding Horford and Thomas who I view as very unlikely to be dealt:

1) 2017 #3
2) 2018 Brooklyn
3) Brown
4) Lakers/Kings pick
5) Smart
6) Crowder
7) Bradley
8) Zizic
9) Memphis 2019-2021 pick
10) Yabusele

Thoughts?
 

chilidawg

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So many ways to think of this, but if you think of current and future value to our team:

Horford
IT
2018 Nets (shiny new toy)
JB (bird in the hand)
2017 #3 (already seeming a little tarnished)
Bradley
Crowder
2018/19 pick
Rozier
Smart
Zizic
 

MarkBT

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I'll take a stab at this...will include Horford and IT, but I share Cellar's sentiments: IT is a unique asset who is likely worth much more over the next year to the C's than he'd be to any other team. Among my top 10, IT is the 'asset' with the biggest trade deficit, meaning, if these assets were on open market, I'd expect IT to net a return furthest from his actual 'value' to the C's.

1) Horford
2) 2017 #3
3) IT
4) BKN 18 Pick
5) Jaylen
6) Lakers/Kings Pick
7) Bradley
8) Zizic
9) Smart
10a) Crowder
10b) Memphis Pick
 

wilked

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What would people rank the Celtics' top 10 assets as, including picks, while factoring in contracts and expected future value? I'll take a stab but interested in seeing what the consensus is:

1. 2017 Nets
2. Isaiah Thomas
3. Jaylen Brown
4. 2018 Nets
5. Marcus Smart
6. Jae Crowder
7. Avery Bradley
8. Al Horford
9. Kelly Olynyk
10. Ante Zizic
Almost exactly 6 months later...

(although clearly we have added a bunch in place of these). Just interesting how quickly things have changed for this team
 

otiose

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I suppose the list now looks something like:

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Jayson Tatum
3. Jaylen Brown
4. 2018 Lakers / 2019 Kings pick
5. Gordon Hayward
6. Marcus Smart
7. Al Horford
8. Marcus Morris
9. Terry Rozier
10. Guerschon Yabusele

On the face of it, the 1-5 look a little better to me than the prior rankings and the 6-10 look a little worse. So much depends on whether Tatum and Brown ever turn into anything or not.
 

luckiestman

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I suppose the list now looks something like:

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Jayson Tatum
3. Jaylen Brown
4. 2018 Lakers / 2019 Kings pick
5. Gordon Hayward
6. Marcus Smart
7. Al Horford
8. Marcus Morris
9. Terry Rozier
10. Guerschon Yabusele

On the face of it, the 1-5 look a little better to me than the prior rankings and the 6-10 look a little worse. So much depends on whether Tatum and Brown ever turn into anything or not.

A little better? Two borderline all NBA players is a little better? Tough crowd
 

otiose

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Only a little better from a asset value standpoint, yeah. The mental exercise I'm going through here is, if Anthony Davis hit the market tomorrow and we were offering the Pelicans some combination of our top five assets, would they be considered better or worse than the top five assets we had six months ago? The answer is not super clear to me.

From a talent standpoint, yes, Kyrie + Hayward is obviously much better talent than IT + some draft picks.
 

Stitch01

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Probably worse, but the Celtics are also trying to make the finals this year so I dont think that is the only metric. This isnt a build for the future team, the contending window is here now, so we should be measuring value to account for that IMO.

Irving/Hayward/Tatum/pick/Brown in order Id say, but somewhat hard to just rank order because the variance in the outcomes of the assets are so different. Cant see having Hayward outside the top 3 though.
 

Auger34

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Only a little better from a asset value standpoint, yeah. The mental exercise I'm going through here is, if Anthony Davis hit the market tomorrow and we were offering the Pelicans some combination of our top five assets, would they be considered better or worse than the top five assets we had six months ago? The answer is not super clear to me.

From a talent standpoint, yes, Kyrie + Hayward is obviously much better talent than IT + some draft picks.
Wait...what? I either don't understand the exercise you are applying, you and Jae Crowder are best friends or you are a member of the Fultz family.

There is no team in the world that would not trade Markelle Fultz, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and the 2018 Brooklyn Pick for Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving and the Laker/King pick. The value isn't even close.
 
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otiose

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I may be underestimating Hayward's trade value. I look at it as not enormous, because while he is absolutely worth his max contract and a scarce star talent, he's not a true superstar who generates value massively exceeding the max.

My calculus would probably go something like:
- the #1 pick (with optionality to select Fultz, Tatum, Ball, or whoever) is somewhat more valuable than Tatum
- the Brooklyn pick is somewhat more valuable than the Lakers/Kings pick
- Irving is significantly more valuable than IT
- Jaylen is Jaylen
- Hayward's max contract is probably more valuable than Crowder or Smart's cheap one, due to his scarce talent, but it might depend on the needs of the team being traded with

I'd probably call that a fairly close win in favor of the current assets because of the Irving-IT value disparity, but if you see Hayward's max deal as being super valuable then I could see calling it not as close.
 

Mloaf71

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I may be underestimating Hayward's trade value. I look at it as not enormous, because while he is absolutely worth his max contract and a scarce star talent, he's not a true superstar who generates value massively exceeding the max.

My calculus would probably go something like:
- the #1 pick (with optionality to select Fultz, Tatum, Ball, or whoever) is somewhat more valuable than Tatum
- the Brooklyn pick is somewhat more valuable than the Lakers/Kings pick
- Irving is significantly more valuable than IT
- Jaylen is Jaylen
- Hayward's max contract is probably more valuable than Crowder or Smart's cheap one, due to his scarce talent, but it might depend on the needs of the team being traded with

I'd probably call that a fairly close win in favor of the current assets because of the Irving-IT value disparity, but if you see Hayward's max deal as being super valuable then I could see calling it not as close.
At some point you need to actually win basketball games or value means nothing. This trade will likely ensure the Celtics win a lot of games in the coming years (may be a wash in year 1) and removes significant variability and downside risk. That has value in and of itself.
 

GreenMonster49

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I'm disappointed that Danny didn't get Alton to throw in some 2nds with Kyrie...
The only second round picks that Cleveland definitely has in the next five drafts are the less favorable of the Lakers or Timberwolves picks in 2019 and Portland's 2020 pick. The Cavaliers have already traded away their 2018, 2019, and 2020 second-round picks. (And their 2021 and 2022 picks are off-limits because their 2019 first-round pick to Atlanta is lottery-protected in 2019 and 2020, then converts to those two seconds.)
 

Saints Rest

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Sorry about resurrecting an old-thread, but the post in the job's junior year thread about him being a top-15 in the NBA asset made me remember this thread. In digging it out, it was fun to see how people valued those future assets which are now birds in hand.

I think I would rank the Celtics' Top 10 assets thus:
(as others have done, I'll leave out Ainge and Stephens, who otherwise might be around 4-6-ish)
  1. Tatum
  2. Brown
  3. Irving
  4. Hayward
  5. Horford
  6. Kings 2019 pick
  7. Rozier
  8. Theis
  9. Morris
  10. Memphis pick
I think the Celts are now at a point where some of these are more valuable assets to the Celtics to hold while others retain value as trade chips.

I'd love to see others' views on these assets in the current environment.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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1. Tatum
2. Brown
3. Irving
4. Kings pick
5. Horford
6. Rozier
7. Hayward
8. Memphis pick
9. Clippers pick
10. Morris

Hayward has to show he is healthy and 100% before he can move higher. Debated Rozier vs. Horford at 5/6 and Theis/Morris at 10. His cheap salary maybe should get the nod.
 

Eddie Jurak

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1. Tatum
2. Irving
3. Horford (below Irving because he is 5 years older)
4. Brown (don’t see the same up side as with Tatum, which is in no way meant as a knock on Brown)
5. Hayward (he’d be above Brown but for injury uncertainty)
6. Kings 2019 pick
7. Memphis pick

Big gap (the Celtics cannot move Rozier for anything close to an asset comparable to either of those picks)

8. Rozier
9. Smart
10. Dunno.
 

MillarTime

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1. Tatum
2. Brown
3. Irving
4. Horford
5. Hayward
6. Kings pick
7. Memphis pick
8. Rozier
9. Clippers pick
10. Theis
 

Cesar Crespo

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Tatum
Brown
Irving
Hayward
Horford
Kings pick
Rozier
Memphis pick
Their Own 2018 pick
Clippers pick
 

Cesar Crespo

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1. Tatum
2. Irving
3. Horford (below Irving because he is 5 years older)
4. Brown (don’t see the same up side as with Tatum, which is in no way meant as a knock on Brown)
5. Hayward (he’d be above Brown but for injury uncertainty)
6. Kings 2019 pick
7. Memphis pick

Big gap (the Celtics cannot move Rozier for anything close to an asset comparable to either of those picks)

8. Rozier
9. Smart
10. Dunno.
I think the Memphis pick is too far out to have serious value, but there is a huge drop after 8. I'd include Rozier in the first group. I'm also not sure you can count Smart as an asset. He's going to be gone or he's going to be paid accordingly and have little value.
 

Ale Xander

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Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Irving
Kings pick
Memphis pick
Rozier
Horford
Clippers pick
Morris
 

Sprowl

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Tatum
Brown
Irving
Memphis pick
Sacramento pick
Rozier
Horford
Hayward
Smart
Morris

I'm thinking that both Horford (age) and Hayward (injury) are more than fully priced, and that devalues them as trade assets. High performance at a reasonable cost sets the first three apart.
 

BigSoxFan

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Tatum
Brown
Irving
Memphis pick
Sacramento pick
Rozier
Horford
Hayward
Smart
Morris

I'm thinking that both Horford (age) and Hayward (injury) are more than fully priced, and that devalues them as trade assets. High performance at a reasonable cost sets the first three apart.
Memphis pick over Sacramento?
 

Sprowl

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Yes -- 2019 looks like a poor draft year, and the pick can't become #1. Memphis looks like a higher-ceiling asset, and Ainge likes having high-ranking future picks as part of his trade packages.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yes -- 2019 looks like a poor draft year, and the pick can't become #1. Memphis looks like a higher-ceiling asset, and Ainge likes having high-ranking future picks as part of his trade packages.
You think GMs would value Memphis over Sac? That pick won’t be able to reach our expected 2019 Sac’s value until 2021.
 

Sprowl

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You think GMs would value Memphis over Sac? That pick won’t be able to reach our expected 2019 Sac’s value until 2021.
I think that other GMs would value Memphis over Sac from 2019 onward, and Ainge, who loves the flexibility to compose packages including multiple asset classes, would value Memphis over Sac right now.

Also, Memphis can be #1 overall. If an up-and-coming team like the Celtics values high-variance assets differently from a team whose window is closing (or which never opened in the first place), the Memphis pick is the preferred asset.
 

mikeot

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Hayward's recovery from injury sure seems to be the biggest variable among the overall consensus here.
 

lovegtm

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Kyrie might have a lot of value, but he's a very illiquid asset: you'd have to craft very specific deals to maximize his value. Because of signability concerns, he can only really be traded to a contender, and those teams tend not to have compelling future assets, or present ones they want to part with.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think that other GMs would value Memphis over Sac from 2019 onward, and Ainge, who loves the flexibility to compose packages including multiple asset classes, would value Memphis over Sac right now.

Also, Memphis can be #1 overall. If an up-and-coming team like the Celtics values high-variance assets differently from a team whose window is closing (or which never opened in the first place), the Memphis pick is the preferred asset.
I think GMs look at this in terms of probabilities—and while it is true Memphis pick is unprotected in a few scenarios it also is likely to be lower than sacto pick most of the time, and vests after it most of the time as well. Those are big negatives seems to me.

Do you see the math differently, or perhaps do you think a small chance at first pick in several years is so much more valuable teams ignore the overall present value calculation? Some were arguing that way about the Fultz deal...first choice is so unique it changes calculus
 

amarshal2

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I feel like Rozier is getting dinged. If there was no Kyrie, would you rather have Rozier or either of the picks? Give me Rozier. Young, talented, improving, and signable for way less than the max. The new draft lotto odds made it easier for Memphis pick to convey in the short term in the 8-10 range. And given how the 2019 draft looks right now, I think the Kings pick looks weak. I think recent history has us overrating draft picks, I don’t think either of these are super strong assets. I don’t think this is that close for an established team with an inferior PG. Only the teams that want real high variance take the picks.
 

Devizier

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These rankings are largely immaterial.

Are we talking about trade value? With whom? Horford has no value in any practical trade scenario, unless we're talking about a Brooklyn-style deal with a contender, in which case he has tons of value.

The future draft picks have to be heavily discounted due to uncertainty, and that's without even considering pick protections. That discount is, after all, how Ainge secured them in the first place.

Any other player has to be considered for specific fit and, in the cases of Kyrie and Hayward, physical fitness to play.

I will say though that Tatum and Brown are #1 and #2, since they have both present and future value, in addition to favorable contracts.