Celtics Summer League

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I love the fall-away he does but I'm worried that in the NBA against wings with NBA-level length and athleticism that shot is almost going to be a non-factor. I love watching him in Summer League but I have a feeling he is going to post a lot of ugly shooting games this year. Of course, the flip side is that in the regular season he will be playing with at least two creators at all times and will get many more open looks.

I wouldn't worry too much right now. He's getting the chance to work on that shot against decent competition and is looking good doing so. Plus, he's not going to be the primary offensive option. Like you noted, he'll likely see a lot of open looks if he's on the court with IT and/or Hayward. As long as he can hit an open mid-range jumper and occasional 3, which I think he'll be just fine at, he'll have value. He can then take his game to the post when he gets good matchups. Coming off the bench, he's probably not going to be matched up against an elite defensive stopper, so he should have an opportunity to continue to refine this part of his game. He's probably not going to see a ton of minutes, esp. early, although I could be wrong. I think Brad will look to put him in good spots where he won't have to face a team's best defender and give him an opportunity to develop.

 

[Fishy1]

I love the fall-away he does but I'm worried that in the NBA against wings with NBA-level length and athleticism that shot is almost going to be a non-factor. I love watching him in Summer League but I have a feeling he is going to post a lot of ugly shooting games this year. Of course, the flip side is that in the regular season he will be playing with at least two creators at all times and will get many more open looks.

Yeah, the fall-away will be tougher to get off in the NBA, but I don't think the offense will be calling for Tatum isos too often. If he's getting post touches, the offense will be a lot more structured out of the post for him: I could see him getting some of those in line-ups where Horford sits and IT is on. There'll be a lot of off-ball screens and cutting that he'll be expected to pass to. If he gets run with starters, he'll probably be in the corner, running off screens himself, and I think that will actually be a terrific opportunity for him to showcase his pump-and-drive game and knock-down open jumpers. He'll be awesome coming off pin-downs.

The other thing is if Hayward is on the floor when Tatum is on the floor, other team's are going to have their best wing defender on Hayward. Length will give him trouble -- it gives everybody but a few very savvy veterans trouble -- but that pressure, I imagine, won't be elite too often. And it'll be great for the second-unit, obviously: teams will have to stay attached to Tatum in a way they've never had to with Smart or Rozier. I'm excited to see how he responds: the dude has never had to play in a situation where he isn't the alpha.

EDIT: elcaballito got there first.

 

[chilidawg]

SB Nation story on Tatum says:



Oh no!

Wait--he's taken like 45 shots. Which means had he hit one less in Utah and one more in Vegas there would be essentially no difference.

He's 19/45 in Vegas and was 22/47 in Utah.

The part of the sentence you left out said to ignore the percentages. That's all star out of context work there.

 

[DJnVa]

The part of the sentence you left out said to ignore the percentages. That's all star out of context work there.

It did, but for other reasons. Don't say "shooting has taken a hit" is literally true, but not really anything that needs a mention.

Sorry I posted your article.

Kidding. Most of it was pretty good.

 

[scottyno]

Tatum's played 33 minutes a game over 6 games in 9 days, it doesn't really seem like a surprise or much to worry about that his jump shooting would be down in the second half of that stretch.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I love the fall-away he does but I'm worried that in the NBA against wings with NBA-level length and athleticism that shot is almost going to be a non-factor. I love watching him in Summer League but I have a feeling he is going to post a lot of ugly shooting games this year. Of course, the flip side is that in the regular season he will be playing with at least two creators at all times and will get many more open looks.

Are we referring to his rookie 19-year old season or when he's 24?

Unless Crowder is moved I don't see where Tatum is going to get many minutes in his rookie year. Moving forward Tatum has never had trouble creating his shot at any level due to his ball handling and ability to create separation. So I agree not to expect much of anything this year but long term his iso wing offense projects to be lethal.

 

[Kliq]

Are we referring to his rookie 19-year old season or when he's 24?

Unless Crowder is moved I don't see where Tatum is going to get many minutes in his rookie year. Moving forward Tatum has never had trouble creating his shot at any level due to his ball handling and ability to create separation. So I agree not to expect much of anything this year but long term his iso wing offense projects to be lethal.

I think he is going to end up being a very good ISO-scorer but his fall away has been a bit of a go-to move and I'm unsure if that move will translate to the NBA.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

As others have said, he'll be able to live off open jumpers for a while, and when he gets stronger, the fade away will be even more of a weapon.

also, he's seeing a lot of double teams that he won't be seeing come NBA season.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

SummerDubs knock off SummerWolves, 77-69.

Jordan Bell: 6 pts (3-5 fg), 16 rebounds, 3 blocks in 27 minutes
Pat McCaw: 26 pts (10-16), 5 rebounds, 4 assists in 32 minutes

Not bad for the two second-round picks they swindled from the Bulls and Bucks for cash. McCaw in particular, who has been playing mostly PG, just exudes cool confidence. I guess playing meaningful minutes as a rookie in the 4th quarter of a Finals close-out game will do that.

Next up tomorrow (4th game in 4 nights for the Ws, lol): the mighty Celtics, in a 2018 Finals preview.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Good news, guys. Lonzo Ball's groin injury is ok and he's back playing tonight!

 

[benhogan]

It's going to be fun cheering for whoever plays against the Lakers and Nets this year.

PJ Carlesimo calling Lonzo Ball a 'marked man', as long as his dad keeps talking (which isn't ending soon), has me thinking he won't last the season. Big men just won't let him stroll into the lane without hard contact and he is way too fragile.

 

[chilidawg]

Good news, guys. Lonzo Ball's groin injury is ok and he's back playing tonight!

18 9 and 6 so far for Ball, end of the 3rd.

 

[nighthob]

It's going to be fun cheering for whoever plays against the Lakers and Nets this year.

PJ Carlesimo calling Lonzo Ball a 'marked man', as long as his dad keeps talking (which isn't ending soon), has me thinking he won't last the season. Big men just won't let him stroll into the lane without hard contact and he is way too fragile.

I think the way he dodges competition is going to make him even more hated.

 

[Kliq]

ESPN is so tied into the need to have superstars to promote that they just can't help themselves when it comes to Lonzo. Nobody else is playing in the game only Lonzo, the other nine players on the court might as well be traffic cones. It's unwatchable.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

ESPN is so tied into the need to have superstars to promote that they just can't help themselves when it comes to Lonzo. Nobody else is playing in the game only Lonzo, the other nine players on the court might as well be traffic cones. It's unwatchable.

One of the worst games I've seen this summer in that regard. No defense being played on either end—in a 40 minute game this is like 120+ point pace. Lakers figure to have a lot of games like this.

 

[chilidawg]

ESPN is so tied into the need to have superstars to promote that they just can't help themselves when it comes to Lonzo. Nobody else is playing in the game only Lonzo, the other nine players on the court might as well be traffic cones. It's unwatchable.

I think he's earned it, clearly best player on the floor.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Extremely impressive line tho: 36 minutes, 36 pts (12-22 fg), 8 rebounds, 11 assists, 5 steals, 2 blocks, 6 tov.

I think he's very fun to watch; I'd just make sure to do it on mute (and I wish he didn't play for the MFL).

 

[JCizzle]

I think the way he dodges competition is going to make him even more hated.

I'm glad his groin is feeling better. I think Simmons term deaaronitis is probably a more accurate description of his ailment

 

[mauf]

I can't hate on Lonzo -- he's a heck of a young player, and he's an incredibly unselfish player between the lines. Wish he hadn't landed on the Lakers.

 

[chilidawg]

Extremely impressive line tho: 36 minutes, 36 pts (12-22 fg), 8 rebounds, 11 assists, 5 steals, 2 blocks, 6 tov.

I think he's very fun to watch; I'd just make sure to do it on mute (and I wish he didn't play for the MFL).

Yeah, too bad he plays for the Lakers, cause I love watching him play. Seems like a good kid in the post game interview too.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I can't hate on Lonzo -- he's a heck of a young player, and he's an incredibly unselfish player between the lines. Wish he hadn't landed on the Lakers.

He's a Laker who was drafted by Magic Johnson. I don't care if he's helping nuns cross the street during timeouts, I will be rooting for his basketball demise, at least through the 2017-2018 season...

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Yeah, a few of the smarter basketball people here are spectacularly wrong about this kid and there are some posts on the board right now that will look hilarious in a few years. He is fun as hell. He is going to struggle with some things in his 20 year old year this season, but, man, "it" is there.

As for Lonzo's defense, he is not a very good one on one defender, but this captures him well:

 

[BigSoxFan]

Lonzo is going to struggle with a lot of things this year. He is going to be a turnstile on defense and is going to have a much harder time on offense once he plays against real NBA players and not G League scrubs. He is also going to get everyone's best every game so he is going to get physically worn down, even moreso than most rookies. He's also surely going to have some distractions caused by Pops. It's going to be quite a taxing year for him.

However, he will certainly have his moments and his passing skills will be on display from Day 1. And he seems like a humble kid who works hard so I think he'll have a fine career.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Ball, Tatum, Mitchell, Smith Jr., Fultz and Fox may all be NBA studs. But as others have pointed out many times in these threads, its Summer League and the general level of competition is several notches below the G League.

There are legitimate questions about whether Tatum can get his fall away shot off against larger NBA defenders (per Kliq above), concerns from veteran NBA pundits about whether Ball has the speed to get around the shifty, athletic guards who will be shadowing him when the real games start and also a lot of proof of concept that guys like Smith, Fultz and Fox can play against NBA stars who are grown men with freakish athleticism and a long experience defending studs. Furthermore, they also have to face the dogged defensive of NBA rotation players who view each one of these guys as an existential threat.

In short, its hard to read too much into these results. Its much different to face some end of the draft kid, a guy who had to play overseas over the past few years or some second year player who rarely sniffed the floor in the prior season versus your Beverleys, Bradleys, Robersons, Shumperts and even a guy like P.J. Tucker in a game. As we have seen, the latter group can flummox elite NBA offensive talents, let alone some kid who grew up in the bubble of AAU basketball and has yet to face the fully realized potential of some of the best athletes in the world.

 

[Sprowl]

This is excellent news. The NBA is borderline unwatchable when the last 45 seconds take 45 minutes to play.

Good news, guys. Lonzo Ball's groin injury is ok and he's back playing tonight!

So he's not Gonzo Ball after all?

 

[southshoresoxfan]

He's a Laker who was drafted by Magic Johnson. I don't care if he's helping nuns cross the street during timeouts, I will be rooting for his basketball demise, at least through the 2017-2018 season...

Quote of the thread!

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Jordan Bell with a rare 5x5 last night for the Summer League Dubs: 5 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals, 6 blocks.

NBA players who have hit those totals since they started keeping track in 1983-84: Hakeem Olajuwon (twice), Marcus Camby.

Despite a +27 for Bell, the SummerDubs fall to the SummerWolves in sudden death OT (most exciting sudden death OT since the Super Bowl, lolz), and will start the playoffs as the #22 seed at 6:30 pm, against ... the SummerWolves.

Winner of tonight's game faces the mighty SummerCeltics in round 2.

SummerDubs knock off SummerWolves, 77-69.

Jordan Bell: 6 pts (3-5 fg), 16 rebounds, 3 blocks in 27 minutes

I really hope Semi develops because I'm afraid Bell going one pick after him is going to haunt my dreams while watching him play meaningful playoff minutes for the next couple of years. He's such a good small-ball big on defense that if he ever develops on offense, he could end up as one of the better players from this draft, but even if he doesn't develop much he can still be useful as a versatile Noel-lite. The fit with the Warriors is perfect.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah, I admittedly didn't have strong Bell vs. Semi opinions but he is looking like a potential steal for the Dubs.

 

[the moops]

He is also going to get everyone's best every game so he is going to get physically worn down, even moreso than most rookies.

Why exactly is everyone going to give their best against this kid and a bad Laker team?

 

[bowiac]

I like Jordan Bell a bunch, but he's 22 (same age as Ojeleye). I think there's value in summer league performances, but it gets a lot harder to tell with older guys.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I like Jordan Bell a bunch, but he's 22 (same age as Ojeleye). I think there's value in summer league performances, but it gets a lot harder to tell with older guys.

Hey, don't rain on my confirmation bias parade, it's half the fun of watching summer league to begin with. I liked Bell well enough pre-draft to get into a tedious argument about him here, which only makes me more vested in being right. Ditto Donovan Mitchell. On the other hand, mention Dennis Smith Jr. shining and I'll write it off as noise since a guy like him was bound to put up SL numbers anyway. Because what good are opinions if you can't stubbornly cling to them in the face of new, contradictory evidence?

 

[nighthob]

Why exactly is everyone going to give their best against this kid and a bad Laker team?

I think he just means opposing point guards resentful of the constant ballwashing that Lonzo's getting.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I think he just means opposing point guards resentful of the constant ballwashing that Lonzo's getting.

This is a really strange interpretation of Lonzo Ball's press. He's had to deal with far more scrutiny than any other prospect in this class. By orders of magnitude.

 

[nighthob]

Perhaps you missed the Summer League games? I watched Jayson Tatum carving the Lakers to pieces as the announcers didn't take even a second's worth of notice in their constant ooohing and ahhhing over Lonzo's form as he tied his sneakers on the sidelines (I'm pretty sure the only real notice JT got was when the ESPN guys had Magic sitting at the table, Magic at least noticed there were nine other guys on the floor).

I can't help but think that that's going to grate on the nerves of all the better point guards out there.

 

[Kliq]

This is a really strange interpretation of Lonzo Ball's press. He's had to deal with far more scrutiny than any other prospect in this class. By orders of magnitude.

The ESPN broadcasts of his summer league games have been some of the fiercest ballwashing any player has gotten. Phil Simms on Peyton level. Outside of that I agree with you.

 

[nighthob]

The ESPN broadcasts of his summer league games have been some of the fiercest ballwashing any player has gotten. Phil Simms on Peyton level. Outside of that I agree with you.

Seriously, the Disney games are going to be nigh on unwatchable this year if this is any indication of the type of coverage we're going to get. Hopefully the TNT people will be better.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think he just means opposing point guards resentful of the constant ballwashing that Lonzo's getting.

I wouldn't say resentful. I just think that the constant coverage and LaVar Ball's comments is putting a target on his back through no fault of his own. Just look at Embiid and Simmons.

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, it's not like the only place I've heard this was SoSH. They were talking about this on NBA Radio, that Ball will have a target on his back for multiple reasons.

 

[Tony C]

Well, he has a target on his back in this forum, anyway -- I think there might be some projecting going on. Had a funny interview with Fox where he all but said the "rivalry" between them is for the fans.

Yeah, a few of the smarter basketball people here are spectacularly wrong about this kid and there are some posts on the board right now that will look hilarious in a few years. He is fun as hell. He is going to struggle with some things in his 20 year old year this season, but, man, "it" is there.

As for Lonzo's defense, he is not a very good one on one defender, but this captures him well:

Yes on both fronts. Quick hands, and opportunistic on defense, but too skinny to handle big guys and not enough lateral quickness to handle small/fast guys. Once stronger and in the context of a good team defense he could develop into an effective defensive player, but that'll take a while.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yeah, a few of the smarter basketball people here are spectacularly wrong about this kid and there are some posts on the board right now that will look hilarious in a few years. He is fun as hell. He is going to struggle with some things in his 20 year old year this season, but, man, "it" is there.

If your definition of "spectacularly wrong" is that he will be heads and shoulders better than Fultz or Tatum, I don't think most of us are too worried at this point.

Personally, I'm rooting for him (well after this year as noted above) to be good (but not better than Jayson). It's always great when the best known players in the NBA can pass and put some artistry in the games, as opposed to just being able to physically beat (or beat up) other players.

I'm just glad that the Cs stayed away from him because I think of the four (including Jackson), Ball has the lowest chance of being a multiple time All-Star. YMMV.

edit: how many people think Ball will be first-team all-rookie next season? I don't.

 

[bowiac]

I'm just glad that the Cs stayed away from him because I think of the four (including Jackson), Ball has the lowest chance of being a multiple time All-Star. YMMV.

edit: how many people think Ball will be first-team all-rookie next season? I don't.

I am not a draftnik, but I have basically the exact opposite instinct. Ball has the highest chance of being a multiple-time All-Star, but also the highest chance of being a bust.

 

[pdaj]

I am not a draftnik, but I have basically the exact opposite instinct. Ball has the highest chance of being a multiple-time All-Star, but also the highest bust chance of being a bust.

So you're saying, if we were to give the players discussed % of being multiple all-stars (A), average players (B), or busts (C), you'd have it something like:

Fultz: 20%, 60%, 20%
Ball: 30%, 40%, 30%
Tatum: 15%, 60%, 25%

I'm not sure that line of thinking works otherwise when discussing high ceiling/low floor players.

 

[Auger34]

I am not a draftnik, but I have basically the exact opposite instinct. Ball has the highest chance of being a multiple-time All-Star, but also the highest bust chance of being a bust.

I agree with WBCD here. I don't think Ball really has much upside. I think he can be a very good player but I just don't picture him ever being an All-Star. He doesn't have the athleticism necessary to get by opposing guards in the half court.

I also can't see him really being a "bust". There's a chance he may not be worthy of his draft status but he's always going to have size plus elite court vision and passing. Seems like he will always be a rotational piece.

 

[bakahump]

Not Celtics related (but then neither is Ball). John Collins is putting together a really nice SL. He was a binky (I love demon Deacons) and I had hoped the celts would have been able to turn the 1 into something AND Collins. Dont get me wrong I think Tatum is going to be VERY good but I like Collins alot.

 

[bowiac]

So you're saying, if we were to give the players discussed % of being multiple all-stars (A), average players (B), or busts (C), you'd have it something like:

Fultz: 20%, 60%, 20%
Ball: 30%, 40%, 30%
Tatum: 15%, 60%, 25%

I'm not sure that line of thinking works otherwise when discussing high ceiling/low floor players.

That looks about right, yeah.

The case for Ball's upside is that elite court vision and passing in a point guard can overcome not having top-end athleticism. He's not going to average 30 per game, but being John Stockton on offense ultimately is a realistic outcome. Additionally, his size gives him upside defensively to balance out problems staying with faster guards, and provide value by guarding 2s.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I agree with WBCD here. I don't think Ball really has much upside. I think he can be a very good player but I just don't picture him ever being an All-Star. He doesn't have the athleticism necessary to get by opposing guards in the half court.

He didn't get by opposing guards in college either, yet he still managed to put up one of the best statistical seasons from a Freshman guard ever while leading a historically efficient offense. There are meaningful differences between NCAA and NBA that give cause for legitimate concern as to how his game will translate, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him struggle, but since I think his greatest skill is a truly generational BBIQ, I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to figure out how to minimize his weaknesses.

He had an insane court-length outlet pass off of a rebound last night that reminded me of a soccer player hitting the perfect touch after looking up to see the keeper off his line. Lonzo does cool, unique things on the basketball court. It's just a shame he'll be doing it for the Lakers.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think it's going to be very tough for any guard to make it in the WC in the next 3-5 years. You basically have 3 positions locked up with Harden, Curry, and Westbrook for the foreseeable future. Then you have guys like Thompson, Paul, Lillard, Conley, McCollum, etc. either there or almost there.

However, in about 4-5 years, Lonzo will be closer to his prime and all the guys above will be either done or on the decline. I think his all-star chances will in some part depend on the team that Magic is able to put around him. He's an exceptional passer and should average double digit assists easily as long as he has guys to pass to. He also will need some creators to help generate open looks for him. Ingram might get there but there really isn't anyone else yet.

If his development goes well, I expect Ball to post stats similar to Steve Nash in Phoenix with more rebounds, steals, and blocks but (probably significantly) worse shooting percentages since Nash was insane. That is obviously an all-star player.

 

[snowmanny]

I think he's an impressive passer with great vision and he will hit open shots. That's worth a lot and why he went number 2 in a good draft. However, I'm not convinced he will be the best rookie point guard in Los Angeles.

 

[mauf]

The ESPN broadcasts of his summer league games have been some of the fiercest ballwashing any player has gotten. Phil Simms on Peyton level. Outside of that I agree with you.

Assuming Fultz's injury is not serious, the crowds the Lakers are drawing in Las Vegas are the biggest story of the Summer League season, and Ball is the reason for that. Of course the announcers are focusing on him.

Ball will get more than his share of attention because he's the #2 overall pick and playing for the Lakers, but if the Lakers are 8-16 in mid-December again, the media spotlight will fade and opposing players will treat him as JAG.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Ball has the most elite couple of tools in this year's draft, with his vision and passing ability. But his jumper (in terms of motion and while moving--he's solid spot-up), defense, and lack of any other offensive game are all issues.

Jason Kidd with a little less physicality is the commonly-stated upside, but Ball isn't in his world defensively (yet, at least). Kidd is so unique I really hesitate to use him as a comp for anyone.

I think Ricky Rubio with weaker on-ball defense and a little better spot-up jumper is realistic. And that's a useful player. And the upside beyond that is sort of Magic-lite...which obviously is a huge impact guy. There just aren't many guys with his kind of vision and passing skils.