Celtics Regular Season thread

[JakeRae]

I think that's pretty bold. The Cavs might not be the 1 seed, but I think there's a good chance the Wizards pass the Celtics and there's also a chance that the Raptors do (less so without Lowry of course). The biggest advantage for the C's is their schedule, as you imply.

Just looking:
Celtics: 11 home games, 6 road games, only 1 b-t-b, though it's a tough one: CLE/@ATL. 6 total games against playoff teams, 2 against top 4 seeds
Wizards: 6 home games, 13 road games, 4 b-t-b (@SAC/@POR, CHI/@CHA, BKN/@CLE, @LAL/@LAC). 8 games against playoff teams, 4 against top 4 seed
Raptors: 9 home, 9 road, 3 b-t-b (@ATL/@MIA, OKC/@DET, @IND/@DET) 10 games against playoff teams, though only 1 against a top 4 seed (closing game of season against CLE)

So the C's have schedule advantage and maybe you say they are going to stay healthy finally (at least the starting 5) and play better than they have been. The Wizards have the worst schedule but have been playing the best ball over the past 30 games.

The relative positions of the C's and the Wizards is probably going to come down to their remaining HTH game, and how the Wizards do on their tough west coast trip (LAL, LAC on second night, then UTA and GS).

I think you are severely underrated the degree of impact scheduling has. The schedule difference between the Celtics and Wizards is worth at least a couple games. The Wizards are a below .500 team on the road this year. Even if they beat out that rate significantly, those 13 road games are likely to provide about as many losses as all the Celtics remaining games. It is really hard to see the Wizards passing the Celtics. Catching the Cavs is very doable for the Celtics, given scheduling. It's probably pretty much a coin flip at this point. It's also more likely the Cavs need to buy rest for LeBron and Kyrie than that the Celtics need to do the same for their starters (and they are still a winning team even giving scattered off days to one or two guys a night, unlike Cleveland).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Cleveland still has another West trip and have 6 back-to-backs to finish the season. They are currently 4-8 in the 2nd leg of this setup.

So yes we have an outside chance to get the 1-seed but being 3 games back in the loss column we don't have much if any room for error with only 17 games remaining. I feel the most likely result of these next two touch travel games (@ Denver and first game back vs Chicago) is a split but not losing both would keep us in the mix. Somehow winning both, to me the least likely of the results, gives us a legit chance at best record.

 

[bowiac]

538 has the Celtics with a 50% chance at the 1 seed (ahead of Cleveland with 40%)

 

[smastroyin]

I'm probably underrating the schedule thing and 538 agrees obviously, just think it's gonna be pretty close in the end. So, you lose the HTH game and it could change the whole thing.

 

[NoXInNixon]

538 has the Celtics with a 50% chance at the 1 seed (ahead of Cleveland with 40%)

I would guess that model doesn't account for the fact that Lebron is going to be sitting some games down the stretch. The true number for the Celtics is thus probably better than 50%.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The Wizards are 23-6 in their last 29 and tied for the C's in the loss column. They acquired Bojan Bogdanovic at the deadline and while that doesn't seem like much, he's made a world of difference given the qualify of their bench before the trade and given the Wizards bench only plays about 70 minutes a night. Having him for 25 of those is significant. He gives the Wiz scoring and shooting off the bench. Obviously, Bojan is going to cool off but even returning to Nets Bojan is enough. Ian Mahinmi returned recently as well and they signed Brandon Jennings. Their bench is much improved. 7% chance? If I knew anything about sports betting, I'd seriously look into what odds they are giving to the Wiz.

 

[chilidawg]

The Wizards are 23-6 in their last 29 and tied for the C's in the loss column. They acquired Bojan Bogdanovic at the deadline and while that doesn't seem like much, he's made a world of difference given the qualify of their bench before the trade and given the Wizards bench only plays about 70 minutes a night. Having him for 25 of those is significant. He gives the Wiz scoring and shooting off the bench. Obviously, Bojan is going to cool off but even returning to Nets Bojan is enough. Ian Mahinmi returned recently as well and they signed Brandon Jennings. Their bench is much improved. 7% chance? If I knew anything about sports betting, I'd seriously look into what odds they are giving to the Wiz.

The Wizards have also played the easiest schedule in the league, which is about to change, and have 7 more remaining road games than home.

 

[JakeRae]

Tonight is a good example of why the Wizards are going to struggle to close the season strong. It's also a good example of why the Celtics performance against Denver shouldn't be a concern.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Tonight is a good example of why the Wizards are going to struggle to close the season strong. It's also a good example of why the Celtics performance against Denver shouldn't be a concern.

down by 2 with 6:50 left in the 4th quarter...

 

[JakeRae]

down by 2 with 6:50 left in the 4th quarter...

I clearly spoke too soon, as Portland managed to bleed away their 21 point halftime lead. But, Washington is now headed into their second overtime in two nights. I wouldn't bet on their legs at this point.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I don't think they are winning the division but 7% seems really low. If I could get 15:1 odds on the Wizard, I'd throw some money on it.

edit: I'm guessing the results of this one game will have a significant impact on their odds. And they won. 25-6 and their last 31. Half game ahead of Boston.

 

[jmcc5400]

Wizards just stole it. Literally. Refs miss Morris stepping out of bounds before his game winner with .4 left.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I refuse to believe the Wizards are actually any good. Beal and Wall are great, and I know Porter has been lights out from 3, but they have zero front court and no bench.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I refuse to believe the Wizards are actually any good. Beal and Wall are great, and I know Porter has been lights out from 3, but they have zero front court and no bench.

They added Bojan, Jennings and Mahinmi to their bench. It's not great but it's 100x better than it was. Porter is also great on D. Of course anyone outside of Boston refuses to believe Boston is good. That's the Eastern Conference for you.

 

[JCizzle]

Since the break, Marcus Smart is shooting 35.5 percent from the field, 17.6 percent from arc, and has Cs worst net rating (-12.7).

---

Marcus has been great throughout most of the year as an overall playmaker, but he still hasn't put it together offensively. He reminds me a bit of a basketball version of JBJ.

 

[JakeRae]

It's worth noting that not only is the Celtics schedule the rest of the way pretty easy, their road schedule is extraordinarily so. Their longest road trip is 2 games and they play exactly one winning team (Atlanta). They also play both New York teams, Philly, and Charlotte. The schedule is tougher, but still pretty soft. They get the Wizards, the Heat, and all the 6-9 teams except Detroit.

 

[DJnVa]

By next Monday morning, I think we're sitting at #3, as WAS has a 4-0 week lined up--toughest games are @MIN and @CHA. The Cavs also play 4 games, but get the Clippers on the road and Utah at home--let's say 3-1.

Should the Celts prevail over Min, BRK, and Phi then next Monday we're looking at the Cavs sitting one up over WAS and 1.5 up over the Celtics.

 

[luckiestman]

I don't care that much where we end up in the 1-3 range but I really want to avoid Cleveland in the second round. So if we don't get the 1, I hope Cle does. Bullets getting the 1 is the nightmare scenario. Well, getting the 3 and Toronto falling to 6 with Cle @ 2 would be even worse.

 

[smastroyin]

I have to admit I should really let it go, but I'm still really pissed they lost both the Suns and the Nuggets games. The Warriors win is great, and nice, but I hope we haven't reached the point of the season where they only get "up" for the big games. I know it's a slog though. At least they dismantled the Bulls yesterday, though the way the Bulls were playing, some of the better NCAA teams may have hung in there.

 

[luckiestman]

I have to admit I should really let it go, but I'm still really pissed they lost both the Suns and the Nuggets games. The Warriors win is great, and nice, but I hope we haven't reached the point of the season where they only get "up" for the big games. I know it's a slog though. At least they dismantled the Bulls yesterday, though the way the Bulls were playing, some of the better NCAA teams may have hung in there.

Things like the Denver game happen. Weed, altitude, feeling good about punking the Trash brothers etc... The Phoenix game was really bad, that was unforgivable

 

[Red Averages]

By next Monday morning, I think we're sitting at #3, as WAS has a 4-0 week lined up--toughest games are @MIN and @CHA. The Cavs also play 4 games, but get the Clippers on the road and Utah at home--let's say 3-1.

Should the Celts prevail over Min, BRK, and Phi then next Monday we're looking at the Cavs sitting one up over WAS and 1.5 up over the Celtics.

The real stretch to watch is when WAS has: @ CHA (18-14 at home), @ BOS (22-9 at home), vs ATL (18-14 on road) , vs BKN (4-29 on road!), @ CLE (back to back, 29-7 at home), @ LAL (12-19 at home), @ LAC (21-10 at home), @ UT (22-12 at home), @ GS (26-4 at home).

That's a very tough 9 game stretch where you could easily see them go 2-7, 3-6, or 4-5. Even assuming they win every other game the rest of the year they'll have a tough time staying ahead of Boston, who may not lose 4 games the rest of the way given how easy the schedule is.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I have to admit I should really let it go, but I'm still really pissed they lost both the Suns and the Nuggets games. The Warriors win is great, and nice, but I hope we haven't reached the point of the season where they only get "up" for the big games. I know it's a slog though. At least they dismantled the Bulls yesterday, though the way the Bulls were playing, some of the better NCAA teams may have hung in there.

PHO never should have happened (if either JB or IT4 make a FT, it's a win) but BOS has trouble with teams like DEN with size that is skilled.

Not sure they are going to be able to figure it out this season but I'm hoping that they can put it together against WAS or TOR.

 

[smastroyin]

Even worse, there is no reason to be in a last minute battle with Phoenix in the first place.

Current Eastern standings are:

CLE
WAS 2.0
BOS 2.5
TOR 5.5
ATL 6.5
IND 9.5
DET 10.5
MIL 11

MIA 12
CHI 12.5
CHA 14

Toronto just lost both ends of a back to back with ATL and MIA so I think they are not a threat to jump into the top 3 anymore. I don't see any of the teams behind ATL making a push for the 5 so I think basically you're looking at TOR/ATL in some order for 4/5.

So I guess the question becomes what's the difference in seeding for the Celtics? I like their chances against any of the 6-8 potential seeds and I don't really like their chances a lot more against any one in particular, so it's probably fine to say the first round, they will be at home with a mostly favorable matchup. The second round, if they are the 1 seed, you get the winner of TOR/ATL. TOR still feels like the worst matchup in the East. They have shown no ability to stop DeRozan or Lowry when only one is on the court, nevermind if they both are. Maybe a healthy Bradley changes that, but I'm not counting on it. However, if they are 2 or 3, then they most likely get the Wizards. In an ideal world, the Wizards would lose their opening round of course. But if you're playing the Wizards, you want home court. So I do think it's fairly important for the Celtics to stay ahead of them.

 

[Big John]

It woulds be nice to get home court against the Wizards, but even nicer to get the #1 seed, so that Washington has to play Cleveland in the second round.

 

[Red Averages]

The only way the Celtics finish behind WAS is if the Celtics can't beat non-playoff teams at home with rest or if WAS blazes through a horrible schedule as shown above. If the Celtics can't do that or if WAS can, it won't matter if the Celtics have home court vs. WAS or not.

 

[smastroyin]

Well, the big thing is that they are essentially tied, there aren't a lot of games left, and the C's are already 1-2 against the Wizards. So the matchup on the 20th could be essentially a 3 game swing due to the tiebreaker (I guess it's possible the Celtics lose the second tiebreaker as well which makes this game irrelevant to the tiebreaker, I don't have time to look it up). The Celtics are at home but on the second night of a back to back.

Obviously, your point still stands about chances in the playoffs.

 

[the moops]

Looks like tie breaker would come down to conference record. Celts currently at 27-12, Wiz at 25-16

 

[tims4wins]

Looks like tie breaker would come down to conference record. Celts currently at 27-12, Wiz at 25-16

So if the Celts win the last H2H, it would be huge in terms of finishing ahead of the Wiz

 

[JakeRae]

By next Monday morning, I think we're sitting at #3, as WAS has a 4-0 week lined up--toughest games are @MIN and @CHA. The Cavs also play 4 games, but get the Clippers on the road and Utah at home--let's say 3-1.

Should the Celts prevail over Min, BRK, and Phi then next Monday we're looking at the Cavs sitting one up over WAS and 1.5 up over the Celtics.

You aren't adequately accounting for the difficulty of winning games on the road in this league. Those games against the Hornets and Wolves are basically coin flips. The other two games are, obviously, much easier but nothing is certain. Overall, Washington probably has roughly a 15% chance of winning all of their next 4 games.

For both teams, the likelihood of various outcomes is probably 3-1 > 2-2 > 4-0 > 1-3 > 4-0. The Celtics, on the other hand, probably sit at 3-0 > 2-1 > 1-2 > 0-3, although there probably isn't a huge gap between the odds of the first 2 outcomes for them.

This is a lot about probabilities and the fact that even a stretch of games where you are the favorite tend to produce losses because the better team loses fairly frequently.

 

[DJnVa]

I get that, I just am projecting out that a hot WAS team will take care of business as the worst case scenario.

Basically, if they go 4-0, they only gain .5 game if BOS takes care of business. If they drop one of those road games, well yahoo.

 

[DJnVa]

And MIN currently has a 18 point lead after 1 quarter against WAS, so, yeah. WAS has allowed 41 points.

 

[Red Averages]

Down to 8 at the half.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

down 15 at the buzzer. The 'Zards can beat anyone but they can also lose to anyone.

 

[JakeRae]

down 15 at the buzzer. The 'Zards can beat anyone but they can also lose to anyone.

This is basically the same as the Celtics loss in Denver. Good teams lose to mediocre teams in the NBA on the road as often as they beat them.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

down 15 at the buzzer. The 'Zards can beat anyone but they can also lose to anyone.

This is basically the same as the Celtics loss in Denver. Good teams lose to mediocre teams in the NBA on the road as often as they beat them.

Especially when it's the Wizard's 3rd road game in 4 days and their 5th road game in 7. And as far as mediocre teams go, Denver and Minnesota are the cream of the crop and present match up problems for the C's and Wiz. The Wolves are 12-7 without Zach LaVine and the Nuggets are 18-12 over their last 30. They both have emerging young talent. KAT and Jokic are primed to be superstar big men. Wiggins is very inconsistent but shows signs of being an elite scorer. LaVine is lights out from downtown. Harris is the ultimate 3 and D guy and is still only 22 years old and Murray has been just as impressive as Jaylen Brown. Denver also has enough older talent and the depth to stay in games. They are one of the deepest teams in the league and could finish .500 in the West and make the playoffs. How dare the C's lose to a playoff team on the road?

edit: Minnesota really has to trade one of LaVine or Wiggins. There is too much offensive fire power with KAT/Lavine/Wiggins on the court together to take advantage of, and the defensive shortcomings are too much. When a team replaces LaVine with Brandon Rush and starts winning games, that tells you how porous your defense is/was. I'm not sure what Denver is going to do. They need to trade 5 quarters for a dollar. I'd keep Jokic, Harris and Murray and build around them. Then I'd try to upgrade at SF by trading from the group of Gallinari/Chandler/Barton/Faried/Mudiay/Hernangomez.

 

[DJnVa]

I'm taking credit for the 2 Washington losses.

 

[joe dokes]

No IT for the weekend.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2017/03/16/knee-injury-will-sideline-celtics-isaiah-thomas-this-weekend/TxtA6ENrv855J1hVD4G8cJ/story.html

 

[NoXInNixon]

At least they're only playing Brooklyn and Philly.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I wonder if it has been nagging IT lately and a weekend trip against Brooklyn and Philly is a perfect time to give him some rest.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Resting IT against these two teams as we head down the stretch is Brad being Pop. Good move...

 

[Cesar Crespo]

In his last 18 games, Jae Crowder is shooting .366/.302/.785.
In his last 12 games, Marcus Smart is shooting .364/.174/.857.
In his last 11 games, Kelly Olynyk is shooting .438/.167/.846.

That's some dreadful performances for a team winning games.

Last 13 for Jaylen: .533/.486/.583
Last 21 for Rozier: .371/.400/.923 22-55 from 3, 21-61 (.344) from 2. He's so aggravating to watch. I keep waiting for him to turn into our most reliable scorer off the bench but it doesn't happen and now he's going to get even less play with Avery Bradley back. Nice to see the 3's falling anyway. I really expected this guy to turn into a 10/5/4 energy guy off the bench with average efficiency and good defense. It could still happen but the chances of it happening in Boston is probably slim unless one of Avery or Marcus is traded in the offseason and/or they don't draft a guard. He doesn't really fit on this team unless he's hitting at least 35% of his 3s since Avery and Marcus are two way players and having Marcus and Rozier out there at the same time is asking for trouble. His skill set is easily covered by other players and without a reliable shot, he offers next to nothing over Marcus Smart.

 

[sezwho]

Interesting analysis, though I'm not how much statistical significance to apply to sample sizes of that size. I agree that rozier has limited time to establish himself especially if the ping-pong balls bounce in our favor.

Could you be more specific about your concern with Marcus and rozier on the court at the same time ? Is it purely because of the O, or does this pairing present some additional defensive limitations?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Purely offense. Hard to carry 2 guys on the court who shoot under 40% from the field. I also doubt those sample sizes have any significance at all. Crowder's is 1/4 of the season though. Probably just regression to the mean as I doubt he's a 40% 3 point shooter.

Smart and Rozier were a combined 3-22 from the field and 1-9 from 3 tonight. Gross. At least Olynyk has been good Olynyk 4 of the last 5 games. Those 4 games the Celtics won. He still isn't hitting 3's but he's hitting his other shots, rebounding and passing well.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I suspect some of the fall off in shooting has to do with their recent schedule and where they are in the calendar. These guys have played 69 games or some substantial portion thereof excluding Bradley and this includes that recent grueling West Coast road trip. It takes its toll.

 

[sezwho]

It makes sense that two offensive offenders (ha?) at the guard position wouldn't lead to success, especially as the Cs are so dependent on their backcourt for scoring.

That said, when one of those players is playing at an elite defensive level, what it really seems to highlight is that rozier just isn't making a very positive impact period.

It does raise the question of whether there is some additional negative impact on Smart's value by playing him with another limited scorer. Would this be less of a concern if we had a big that put up points? Aside from the obvious point that someone needs to get baskets.

 

[smastroyin]

Good night for the C's. Wizards lose to Charlotte, Cavs backups lose to the Clippers. C's now 1.5 games out of first, and 2 games ahead of the Wizards. Tomorrow's game with the Wiz is still a big one. Hopefully this afternoon is less of a struggle than Friday night and they have legs for tomorrow.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I suspect some of the fall off in shooting has to do with their recent schedule and where they are in the calendar. These guys have played 69 games or some substantial portion thereof excluding Bradley and this includes that recent grueling West Coast road trip. It takes its toll.

I was about to post similar comments. Taking much from a small sample in the dog days of the season that include 3 mid-west to western road swings is a stretch. We have a pretty good idea of these players skillsets by now.

 

[smastroyin]

I spoke too soon about Atlanta, they've lost 4 straight in fairly ugly fashion and will be without Millsap for at least tomorrow's game against the Wizards, probably also Friday's game against the Bucks. And Bozeman is out another 3-4 games likely.

I'd really prefer not to play the Hawks again in the first round, but it may go that way.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

officially in the playoffs, who do we want to play? It seems like it could be any of Atlanta, Indiana, Milwaukee, Miami, Detroit, Chicago or less likely, Charlotte.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

officially in the playoffs, who do we want to play? It seems like it could be any of Atlanta, Indiana, Milwaukee, Miami, Detroit, Chicago or less likely, Charlotte.

Not sure who we want to play but would think no team is looking forward to getting MIL in the first round with their length, Particularly the Cs, who are extremely bothered by length.