Celtics-Raptors 2nd Round--Dethrone the Champs

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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With the direction the Jacob Blake story is going... I'm not sure that's the hill I'd want to plant my flag, if I'm an NBA player. I'm sure the NBA doesn't want it.
I suspect that NBA players don't care what fans want right now. I also believe strongly that the league will support the players regardless of what they choose. The beauty of their approach thus far is that instead of a bunch of outsiders telling an affected group how they should respond, they are letting the group decide. This is how things should be imo.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Can’t wait for the talking shitheads to question ‘commitment to the game’ and ‘toughness’ and tell the players to ‘shut up and play.’
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This is an NBA forum and I would like to request that we don't get into allegations around specific high profile news cases except as they pertain to players, teams and leagues. As such, we don't need to debate the details of the Jacob Blake case here - there are plenty of other fora for that online.
 

DJnVa

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What I think would make a bigger statement than what would amount to a postponement is something like Jaylen and VanVleet sitting out the game. Visible on the sidelines, with an interview, and things like that. A hole on the team reflecting the hole in the family/community, etc. It shows sacrifice--not only for players sitting out, but by the team.
 

mauf

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This is an NBA forum and I would like to request that we don't get into allegations around specific high profile news cases except as they pertain to players, teams and leagues. As such, we don't need to debate the details of the Jacob Blake case here - there are plenty of other fora for that online.
I agree. I hid a few posts that ran afoul of that principle.

For members, there’s a robust, ongoing discussion of the shooting of Jacob Blake in V&N. Discussion here should be confined to the impact on the NBA.
 

bsj

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Zero prob with the teams doing what they think is right. But...is Milwaukee doing it too? It would seem they would be the first out of the gate?
 

JCizzle

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BigSoxFan

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You have to wonder if LeBron and others are thinking about pulling out altogether. That would elevate the conversation.
 

Red Averages

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You have to wonder if LeBron and others are thinking about pulling out altogether. That would elevate the conversation.
Elevate? Maybe. Change? Absolutely. It would be a big move with unknown consequences both in near term and long term without a clear goal in mind to be achieved. I’m all for supporting the players and letting them decide what they think is best. I don’t think we should expect a nuclear option to necessarily be the path that leads to a different outcome. It could even bring in a worse outcome - with fans potentially turning against the players/league. Now maybe they are fine with that, but you’ll have significant salary cap/revenue considerations potentially for the next decade. We already know the ratings are suffering.
 

BigSoxFan

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Elevate? Maybe. Change? Absolutely. It would be a big move with unknown consequences both in near term and long term without a clear goal in mind to be achieved. I’m all for supporting the players and letting them decide what they think is best. I don’t think we should expect a nuclear option to necessarily be the path that leads to a different outcome. It could even bring in a worse outcome - with fans potentially turning against the players/league. Now maybe they are fine with that, but you’ll have significant salary cap/revenue considerations potentially for the next decade. We already know the ratings are suffering.
I don’t think anyone knows what would result from such a tactic but it would be the major national sports story, at least until the NFL is back. I could see that being appealing to players.
 

jmcc5400

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I don’t think anyone knows what would result from such a tactic but it would be the major national sports story, at least until the NFL is back. I could see that being appealing to players.
LeBron may be influential enough to catalyze similar movements in other sports - the NFL in particular.
 

PedroKsBambino

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LeBron may be influential enough to catalyze similar movements in other sports - the NFL in particular.
Roger Goodell's response would be something along the lines of fining the players involved for tampering with each other's free agency. Anyone who thinks his about-face on Kaep is even 1% sincere is a fool.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Just got an ESPN alert that Lowry is "likely" to play, looked ok in practice. If nothing else, sometimes the returning player on a minutes restriction or testing out an injury can mess up the flow of the team. I'll hope for that to occur today...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Nurse is going to have to figure out how to get consistent looks in the halfcourt. Its a problem the team has masked all season (14th overall) and its exactly what Stevens and the Cs exploited in game one. The Raptors simply don't have a consistent bucket getter when the defense mucks things up.
 

TripleOT

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18 ESPN experts pick the series and come out 13 for TOR vs 5 for Cs: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29740950/nba-playoffs-2020-experts-picks-bucks-heat-raptors-celtics-east-semis

Notably, Bobby Marks picks TOR in 5. I guess he's much better at cap calculations that player evaluations.
I don’t know what these experts have been looking at all season, but IIRC, the Celtics were 3-1 against the Raps, and built huge leads in all three wins.

And now they did the same thing in game one, jumping out to a big lead, blunting every little Toronto run, and turning the last 12 minutes of a playoff game into extended garbage time.

I thought the Cs would win in six, but after seeing them again handle Toronto so easily, it’s going to be Boston in 5.
 

The Raccoon

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I don’t know what these experts have been looking at all season, but IIRC, the Celtics were 3-1 against the Raps, and built huge leads in all three wins.

And now they did the same thing in game one, jumping out to a big lead, blunting every little Toronto run, and turning the last 12 minutes of a playoff game into extended garbage time.

I thought the Cs would win in six, but after seeing them again handle Toronto so easily, it’s going to be Boston in 5.
Just to add on (all taken from ESPN):
- No team this season has beaten the Raptors more than 2 times other than the Celtics (4:1 now)
- Toronto has lost 4 games by 15+ points this season, 3 of them to the C's
- In the bubble: Boston +40 total in two games on the Raptors and never trailing in either game

It's only been 1 game, but a very good one nevertheless...
 

PedroKsBambino

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Zach Lowe said on his podcast a week or two ago that he believes Tor is a better team than Boston, but that the Celtics were the favorite in a head to head.

I think the first part of that is likely in some of the “expert” heads and many don’t work hard enough to see the second part.

I was optimistic coming in for reason mentioned above: Tor doesn’t have a clear offensive advantage anywhere to get easy hoops. What was clear today in addition is Celtics are a lot quicker offensively. If Tor doesn’t have a way to slow things down (eg be physical without fouling) they can’t stop Celtics. Too many times Celts won on the ball and then rotated the ball for easy looks.
 

RedOctober3829

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I loved how today went, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. All of the Celtics big players shot the ball well except for Brown while Smart was ridiculously good for him. Toronto's big players outside of Lowry were 3-16, 5-16, 4-10, and 4-12. You would expect the Raptors to make more shots in Game 2. Can the Celtics keep up the balanced scoring from today with 6 players in double figures? I'm optimistic, but the series can change on a dime.
 

InstaFace

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That game was pure sex after the long wait of the last week. It's nice that we're basically the Raptors' kryptonite, but then again, the Bucks are kinda ours.
 
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Euclis20

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I loved how today went, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. All of the Celtics big players shot the ball well except for Brown while Smart was ridiculously good for him. Toronto's big players outside of Lowry were 3-16, 5-16, 4-10, and 4-12. You would expect the Raptors to make more shots in Game 2. Can the Celtics keep up the balanced scoring from today with 6 players in double figures? I'm optimistic, but the series can change on a dime.
Yeah no one should be too excited considering we're now exactly as far as last year's team got (sweep in round 1 followed by a game 1 upset in round 2), but I'm cautiously optimistic for a few reasons:

-The Celtics have pretty thoroughly handled the Raptors so far this year. See post #75
-Tatum didn't exactly go off, just 21 points on 18 shots. He can do better.
-As noted, Jaylen was pretty awful.

I'd expect VanVleet to play significantly better, but Lowry is hurt (and not a great scorer to begin with) and Siakam's issues against Brown/Smart/Semi aren't going to resolve so quickly. At this point I'm comfortable saying the Celtics have the matchups and it's their series to lose (as opposed to any series with MIL/LAC/LAL, where the Celtics are the inferior team).
 

Red Averages

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Great game. BUT Celtics shot 44% from 3, the Raptors shot 25%. If we bring those both to 35%, it’s a 21 point difference. Let’s not get too confident after a great win.
Thought the Celtics did a great job of trying to contain the transition offense of Toronto. Clearly a key point for Brad.
The Celts will need to do a better job adjusting to the shifting defense of Tor (man to zone hurt them today). Ideally a good Tatum resolves that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Zach Lowe said on his podcast a week or two ago that he believes Tor is a better team than Boston, but that the Celtics were the favorite in a head to head.

I think the first part of that is likely in some of the “expert” heads and many don’t work hard enough to see the second part.

I was optimistic coming in for reason mentioned above: Tor doesn’t have a clear offensive advantage anywhere to get easy hoops. What was clear today in addition is Celtics are a lot quicker offensively. If Tor doesn’t have a way to slow things down (eg be physical without fouling) they can’t stop Celtics. Too many times Celts won on the ball and then rotated the ball for easy looks.
What does it possibly mean that TOR is the better team but the Cs have a head-to-head advantage? Better in what way? That's a weird way of putting it.

BOS has the best player in the series and probably has the 2nd best (Kemba). TOR is a mediocre team in the half-court against the entire NBA and now has to play a team that is really good, really long, and really well-coached. At this point, TOR does not appear to have anyone who commands a double-team in the half-court. On defense, Lowry and FVV are excellent perimeter defenders but putting them in the post against either JT or JB is going to create open looks somewhere and Brad could do more of that if he wanted.

TOR's a good team, a well-coached team, but BOS is a bad match-up for them. Not sure what other options Nurse has. Maybe play Gasol in the post more?

I would be surprised if TOR took more than one game.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Toronto at their best plays strong team D, moves the ball well on O, and has a lot of depth. But I think people probably overrated what they were able to do in the regular season with that formula and downplayed what it means to have lost that alpha player once the playoffs come around.

The rest of the series will be tougher than today, but the Celtics definitely have the upper hand in this matchup.
 

nighthob

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The Celtics are just too long and play transition defense too well for Toronto to get their easy buckets. And their halfcourt offense lacks shot creation. So Boston is a terrible matchup for them. Toronto’s going to be a tough out, but I think Boston takes this in six.
 

RorschachsMask

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The Raptors play extremely physical defense, will make both of the Jays better playoff players going forward. Tatum finishing 9-18 after starting 2-7 was a damn good sign, they were hacking the shit out of him.

Would like to see him be more aggressive from three, but that was a really strong game after the first quarter.

Smart is so dreamy, love that man.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This recap article from NBA.com explains a good portion of TOR's problem against the Cs:

League-wide, effective field goal percentage is highest in the first six seconds of the shot clock. In the regular season, the Raptors had the league's sixth-biggest differential between their effective field goal percentage in the first six seconds (61.7%, fifth) and their effective field goal percentage thereafter (51.6%, 19th).
Siakam was the primary example of the Raptors' transition-vs.-half-court dichotomy, with a differential (65.7% vs. 47.4%) more than double the league average. And on Sunday, he didn't get any shots in the first six seconds of the shot clock, finishing with 13 points on 5-for-16 from the floor.

Also, those corner 3s that people were talking about in the game thread? TOR gives up more corner 3s than any other team in the league. Article suggests that's because TOR's guards are so aggressive on the ball but I can't say I know for sure why TOR does this.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Also, Chris Forsberg with an article praising Kemba's defense: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/its-time-give-celtics-kemba-walker-praise-his-defense-nba-playoffs?b. One bit:

The Celtics deployed Walker as the primary defender on Fred VanVleet Sunday and watched VanVleet clang his way to 11 points on 3-of-16 shooting while missing nine of the 11 3-pointers he attempted. Walker set a tone from the game’s opening possession, chasing VanVleet on a give-and-go handoff with Siakam, and forcing a miss near the rim.
Walker gamely ran through about 1,000 screens Sunday simply trying to contest VanVleet’s shots. Maybe it was just a bad shooting night for the Toronto guard after a long and emotional layoff. But after shooting 56 percent beyond the 3-point arc in Round 1, Walker helped limit him to 2-of-11 shooting from distance in Game 1. And the NBA's hustle stats credited Walker with contesting five shots (tied for the most among any non-big on the Celtics).
Walker was also credited with a team-high three deflections and had a steal. The Celtics posted a defensive rating of 85.7 — or nearly 5 points lower than their already sterling 90.4 for the game — during Walker’s 32 minutes of floor time. Hone in on the 30 minutes that Walker and VanVleet shared the court and that number was a mere 87.9.

more at the link.
 

Euclis20

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What does it possibly mean that TOR is the better team but the Cs have a head-to-head advantage? Better in what way? That's a weird way of putting it.

BOS has the best player in the series and probably has the 2nd best (Kemba). TOR is a mediocre team in the half-court against the entire NBA and now has to play a team that is really good, really long, and really well-coached. At this point, TOR does not appear to have anyone who commands a double-team in the half-court. On defense, Lowry and FVV are excellent perimeter defenders but putting them in the post against either JT or JB is going to create open looks somewhere and Brad could do more of that if he wanted.

TOR's a good team, a well-coached team, but BOS is a bad match-up for them. Not sure what other options Nurse has. Maybe play Gasol in the post more?

I would be surprised if TOR took more than one game.
Toronto finished a full 5 games ahead of Boston in the standings. It's not exactly a stretch to say that they are the better team overall (against the other 28 teams), and now that the Celtics have won 4 of 5 meetings, it's not a stretch to say the Celtics have the head to head advantage. I understand what he meant, especially because I felt like the exact opposite was true against the Sixers (at least with Simmons). We didn't appear to match up that well against their full team, but we finished way ahead of them in the final standings.
 

Jimbodandy

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Also, Chris Forsberg with an article praising Kemba's defense: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/its-time-give-celtics-kemba-walker-praise-his-defense-nba-playoffs?b. One bit:

The Celtics deployed Walker as the primary defender on Fred VanVleet Sunday and watched VanVleet clang his way to 11 points on 3-of-16 shooting while missing nine of the 11 3-pointers he attempted. Walker set a tone from the game’s opening possession, chasing VanVleet on a give-and-go handoff with Siakam, and forcing a miss near the rim.
Walker gamely ran through about 1,000 screens Sunday simply trying to contest VanVleet’s shots. Maybe it was just a bad shooting night for the Toronto guard after a long and emotional layoff. But after shooting 56 percent beyond the 3-point arc in Round 1, Walker helped limit him to 2-of-11 shooting from distance in Game 1. And the NBA's hustle stats credited Walker with contesting five shots (tied for the most among any non-big on the Celtics).
Walker was also credited with a team-high three deflections and had a steal. The Celtics posted a defensive rating of 85.7 — or nearly 5 points lower than their already sterling 90.4 for the game — during Walker’s 32 minutes of floor time. Hone in on the 30 minutes that Walker and VanVleet shared the court and that number was a mere 87.9.

more at the link.
This is a good catch.

Of course some guys missed open shots, but there's another reason why the Celtics shot better from three than Toronto. We defended the three better. And as noted about, the transition defense was excellent.

I think that this is still a hard series. Nurse will find matchups to exploit and wrinkles to throw, and Toronto is a better defensive team than they showed today.
 

radsoxfan

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Toronto finished a full 5 games ahead of Boston in the standings. It's not exactly a stretch to say that they are the better team overall (against the other 28 teams), and now that the Celtics have won 4 of 5 meetings, it's not a stretch to say the Celtics have the head to head advantage. I understand what he meant, especially because I felt like the exact opposite was true against the Sixers (at least with Simmons). We didn't appear to match up that well against their full team, but we finished way ahead of them in the final standings.
I'd put more weight on point differential than W-L for prediction of future performance, and they were basically tied in the regular season (Bos +6.4, Tor +6.3).

Boston's slightly more top-heavy roster is probably a slight edge over Toronto's depth in the playoffs, so if completely healthy I'd give a slight edge to Boston, even before discussing any specific individual player match-ups.

You probably have to knock Boston down a bit for the Hayward injury, if for no other reason than they are only 1 more injury away from having to play some very bad players a lot of minutes.

Toronto can definitely win 4 of the next 6 games, they are a very good team and this was probably the worst game they will play all series. I still like the Celtics in 6.
 
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PedroKsBambino

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What does it possibly mean that TOR is the better team but the Cs have a head-to-head advantage? Better in what way? That's a weird way of putting it.

BOS has the best player in the series and probably has the 2nd best (Kemba). TOR is a mediocre team in the half-court against the entire NBA and now has to play a team that is really good, really long, and really well-coached. At this point, TOR does not appear to have anyone who commands a double-team in the half-court. On defense, Lowry and FVV are excellent perimeter defenders but putting them in the post against either JT or JB is going to create open looks somewhere and Brad could do more of that if he wanted.

TOR's a good team, a well-coached team, but BOS is a bad match-up for them. Not sure what other options Nurse has. Maybe play Gasol in the post more?

I would be surprised if TOR took more than one game.
Others have highlighted specifics, but the simplest explanation is that playoff nba is all about matchups—both individual and team style. Especially earlier in the playoffs there can be a gap between how well a team matches up with the generic opposition and how well they match up with a particular opponent
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Toronto finished a full 5 games ahead of Boston in the standings. It's not exactly a stretch to say that they are the better team overall (against the other 28 teams), and now that the Celtics have won 4 of 5 meetings, it's not a stretch to say the Celtics have the head to head advantage. I understand what he meant, especially because I felt like the exact opposite was true against the Sixers (at least with Simmons). We didn't appear to match up that well against their full team, but we finished way ahead of them in the final standings.
TOR obviously had the better regular season record but I discount that because it strikes me that Brad is more interested in seeing how guys perform in certain situations than winning certain games. you know, data.

So other than regular season wins, I don't see why TOR is a better team. I Is it because TOR's 9 + 10th players are probably better than the Cs' 9 + 10 players? Or because TOR's brand of basketball - aggressive defense; pushing ball at every chance; trying to get transition baskets - is better for the regular season? Or that TOR is older so there is less variance to their game (not sure this makes them better as opposed to more consistent).

At any rate, I guess I just think that BOS has better players - better offensive players and better defensive players - so I think BOS has the better team. YMMV.
 

Euclis20

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I'll buy that Toronto's brand of basketball is better in the regular season, both because of their style and because they're deeper than Boston. They were definitely better in the regular season, and not because Brad played Romeo Langford and Rob Williams for a few extra minutes here and there. The Celtics tried for that higher seeding, which all year looked more valuable than the 3 seed: The 2 seed meant a 1st round matchup against the 3rd tier of the East (Nets/Magic) and home court in round 2. Simmons' injury and the bubble meant there is little practical difference between the two seeds right now.

As PKB notes playoff basketball is all about matchups. This does not appear to be a great matchup for the Raptors. The Celtics transition defense stifles the Raptors greatest strength on offense and exposes what they are without Kawhi, a team that is not great at manufacturing baskets in the half court. Hopefully they don't have the talent to adjust beyond that.
 

lovegtm

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Celtics pretty clearly imo.

As it is, I'll say Celtics in 6. Healthy Kemba makes a way bigger difference than people think, and Brown will take away a lot of Siakam's mismatch advantage on offense.

This isn't a homer thing: I am going to pick Milwaukee in 5-6 if that series happens.
I was wrong about the Jaylen on Siakam part: it turns out that the Celtics have 4 guys who are bad matchups for Siakam: Semi, Jaylen, Grant, and Marcus.

The Celtics will shoot worse and the Raptors will shoot better, but I still don't see how Toronto can generate mismatches in the half-court. The Celtics are too long and too athletic; it's a nightmare matchup for Toronto, and has been a bad one for them all year.

As much as people worry about the bench, Wanamaker and Semi both are fine spot-up guys (Wanamaker can even dribble against a closeout!), and TL+Grant give plenty of extra minutes at the 4/5 spots as needed. You're 8-9 deep at that point, which is fine.
 

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Eddie Jurak

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Yeah no one should be too excited considering we're now exactly as far as last year's team got (sweep in round 1 followed by a game 1 upset in round 2), but I'm cautiously optimistic for a few reasons:

-The Celtics have pretty thoroughly handled the Raptors so far this year. See post #75
-Tatum didn't exactly go off, just 21 points on 18 shots. He can do better.
-As noted, Jaylen was pretty awful.
Brown came out hot, got into foul trouble, and tailed off. His whole game wasn't good but he was a key part of the early lead the Celtics jumped out to, which they never really relinquished.
Great game. BUT Celtics shot 44% from 3, the Raptors shot 25%. If we bring those both to 35%, it’s a 21 point difference. Let’s not get too confident after a great win.
Thought the Celtics did a great job of trying to contain the transition offense of Toronto. Clearly a key point for Brad.
The Celts will need to do a better job adjusting to the shifting defense of Tor (man to zone hurt them today). Ideally a good Tatum resolves that.
Interesting that when asked postgame about the transition defense stat that the Celtics allowed only 7 transition points, Stevens said that must be a bad stat and that there was a lot of room for improvement in the transition D. John Karalis broke down what that was about on the Locked On Celtics podcast: Toronto got very little offense off of steals and Celtic turnovers, which might be where the 7-point stat came from. But Toronto had an offensive rating of 136 off of Celtic missed baskets, which is likely what Stevens had in mind.
 

benhogan

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Yeah no one should be too excited considering we're now exactly as far as last year's team got (sweep in round 1 followed by a game 1 upset in round 2), but I'm cautiously optimistic for a few reasons:
as long as Kemba doesn't start clanging 20 shots/gm, covering Pascal 1 on 1, ignoring Brad and blaming the "inexperienced players" postgame - the C's should be OK

https://theathletic.com/2032958/2020/08/30/kemba-walker-quiet-superstar-celtics/
also this:

https://theathletic.com/2032947/2020/08/30/celtics-raptors-nurse-stevens-coaching-clash/
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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any chance for a short summary for those who don't have a subscription?

Maybe one part is how Brad forced Pascal to score 1 v 1 against JB, Grant, Marcus, and JT after preventing early offense (stopping transition)?

And a second part is keeping the ball moving on offense so TOR can't load up on scorers?

Interested in hearing what the main points are if you don't mind.
 

NomarsFool

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TimeLord looked great. My expectation is that Nurse will spend all day today figuring out how to neutralize him and Brad Stevens will have Kanter be the first C of the bench tomorrow and he'll dominate in half-court :)