Atlanta is not an optimal matchup and the Cavs loom. Millsap and Horford are tough to deal with but the Hawks' bench other than Schroder is bad. The best chance for Boston is for the second unit to dominate. Both teams are healthy.
Celtics Playoffs Discussion & News
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Pretty much the worst spot the Celtics could have ended up as the 5 seed playing the Hawks on the road to start. Should be a good series with the Hawks who have given them problems throughout the year.
Steal a game in ATL and the series becomes far easier.
Steal a game in ATL and the series becomes far easier.
I can't imagine Atlanta's second unit getting more than token minutes. That's the playoff disadvantage against deep teams with no back to back games.
I agree Red. This is not the position I wanted for Boston. Here are their results against Atlanta this season:
Nov 13, vs Atl: W, 106-93, Thomas with 23, Sullinger with 10 rebounds. Boston rode a big 3rd quarter (35-24) to take control.
Nov 24, at Atl: L, 121-97, Millsap with 25 points and 9 rebounds. Down 10 after three quarters, the Cs got blown out in the fourth (40-24).
Dec 18, vs Atl: L, 109-101, Thomas with 29, Horford had 10 rebounds. Up 2 after three quarters, the Cs got killed in the fourth (38-28).
Apr 9, at Atl: L, 118-107, Millsap with 31 points, 16 rebounds. Cs were up 4 at the half but got outscored in the 2nd half 51-36.
Average score in these games: Atlanta 110, Boston 103.
Not a good sign, but you never know. Maybe Boston pulls it together. They're playing pretty well, having gone 5-2 in their last 7, and 9-4 in their last 13. I think it's going to be tough, but I am hopeful.
Go Celtics!
Nov 13, vs Atl: W, 106-93, Thomas with 23, Sullinger with 10 rebounds. Boston rode a big 3rd quarter (35-24) to take control.
Nov 24, at Atl: L, 121-97, Millsap with 25 points and 9 rebounds. Down 10 after three quarters, the Cs got blown out in the fourth (40-24).
Dec 18, vs Atl: L, 109-101, Thomas with 29, Horford had 10 rebounds. Up 2 after three quarters, the Cs got killed in the fourth (38-28).
Apr 9, at Atl: L, 118-107, Millsap with 31 points, 16 rebounds. Cs were up 4 at the half but got outscored in the 2nd half 51-36.
Average score in these games: Atlanta 110, Boston 103.
Not a good sign, but you never know. Maybe Boston pulls it together. They're playing pretty well, having gone 5-2 in their last 7, and 9-4 in their last 13. I think it's going to be tough, but I am hopeful.
Go Celtics!
Draft slots for teams tied are usually determined by coin flip, not playoff seeding. Not sure about how they determine it with four teams tied though, but it will be some sort of random drawing.
Please change "glass half full" to "wishful thinking". I looked at Tankathon and that's how they ordered them. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.
Tankathon does its own simulated set of coin flips. "Tiebreaker: On this site, a coin toss is held to decide the order of tied teams."
I just need to say that Stevens should never be underestimated. The Hawks have some advantages at talent but if there is one thing Stevens has demonstrated its that even with just minimal above average talent on his roster, he can neutralize opposing talent enough to consistently give the Celtics a chance to win. Its really remarkable. His coaching genius is going to be invaluable in a 7 game series and he didnt get much of chance to show it last year because the Cavs were really a brutal draw last year and that Celtics team really didnt have much business being in the playoffs anyway.
Never underestimate my man-crush.
Never underestimate my man-crush.
Fair enough. So long as the value of an NBA coach can also be discussed if we lose to Atlanta.
To me it's similar to the PG position. You don't need the "best" one to win a championship as history shows the best coach and the best PG usually don't end up as the champions at the end of the season. You need a competent one.....then you need superstars to actually win the games.
To me it's similar to the PG position. You don't need the "best" one to win a championship as history shows the best coach and the best PG usually don't end up as the champions at the end of the season. You need a competent one.....then you need superstars to actually win the games.
Glass half full: if Celtics beat Hawks (or it goes 7) AND they don't injure or do anything to really piss off Horford, it should give us a better shot at him this offseason.
Glass half full (part 2): I'm glad we don't have to play the Heat where DWade would be trying to injure IT at every opportunity.
Overall, if we can get out of the first round I will be happy & satisfied and view this as a successful season to build on for next year.
Glass half full (part 2): I'm glad we don't have to play the Heat where DWade would be trying to injure IT at every opportunity.
Overall, if we can get out of the first round I will be happy & satisfied and view this as a successful season to build on for next year.
Dumb question: wife is headed to Vegas next week. Can she throw a bet down on the Celtics to make the finals, two games into the first round?
This has been my position all season as well. I had us in the mid-30's fighting for an 8-seed prior to the season which I was clearly off on. The second half of last year carried over and showed it was real. Losing out in the first round for a second year in a row this time to a non-Cav team would confirm to Ainge what he probably already feels in that we aren't close to being a true contender.
Having said that this team is capable of winning a series versus a team like Atlanta. We better be or else we really didn't pick up much if any ground on our EC rivals.
I don't agree with your last point. I really didn't want to see Atlanta. I would have even preferred Toronto rd 1 to Atl. That being said, I expect the Cs to be very competitive.
I'm not too discouraged about the upgrade in the 48-34 competition. Atlanta slid back a little bit after last year, but has most of the same talent, a great big man combo in Millsap and Horford and a good point guard in Teague and a promising replacement in Schroder. Charlotte made some impressive advances with Walker emerging and a deep bench, quite like the Celtics, and Miami discovered some unpredicted upside in Whiteside, not to mention plenty of firepower from Bosh, Wade, and Dragic. Where we picked up ground was against Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Washington, Milwaukee and most of the also-rans we also used to run with.
I think these Celtics are capable of winning, but definitely underdogs against Atlanta. If the Celtics do make it through Atlanta and Cleveland, they will have blown expectations out of the water.
She's staying at the Wynn. I'll try to send her on Wednesday morning or something so she won't have a bunch of degenerates in line behind her.
I assume there's no action to be had on a Wednesday morning at the book, but then again, gambling isn't one of my many vices.
I'm also going to be in Vegas next week. With the NFL schedule out and the NBA/NHL playoffs starting up, it's going to be a dangerous time.
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This is a very cool read from Isaiah Thomas in The Players Tribune.
I'm already happy & satisfied with this season. It has been so much fun to watch and they play so hard.
These are just a few highlights...
- the gutsy road OT win at Charlotte the night after a heartbreaking 2OT loss to the Warriors
- The 14 game home winning streak. Especially the comeback 13th win against the Knicks.
- the Bradley buzzer beater in Cleveland
- the unbelievable Clippers game
- the win in Oakland
- this
The thing is, the playoffs are not just a capstone on this season this year, they are also a recruiting pitch to the free agent class. A successful playoff run, which I'd define as getting to a 6th game against Cleveland, would go a long way toward making the case that we are just one star away from being a championship contender.
Aside from an overpay on Horford (granted every FA contract this summer will be a MASSIVE overpay in comparison to the players on current deals) on the wrong side of 30 who are these stars that would suddenly consider spending their winters in Boston based on a first-round series win?
I still have my weekly DeRozan dreams but they are certainly just that. Horford seems like a guy who could play forever since he doesn't rely on athleticism and has that funny little Isaiah connection......but still Boston has to be a very tough sell with other teams in the mix. When we keep saying "recruiting a max guy" and "one star away" we are close enough to FA to begin citing specific players as targets and their reasoning for choosing Boston winters and high taxes.
Boston does not have high taxes. In fact, compared to most NBA cities, Boston has pretty low taxes. Texas and Florida are zero income tax states, but after that, cheaper options are things like going to Detroit to save 1% per year. Or, you could go to California and pay over twice as much. Ditto NYC. A long time ago, Massachusetts was a high tax state. The myth that it still is needs to die.
It's not a myth for this discussion of aiming for a max player when you have at least 6 cities off the top of my head with lower taxes and much better weather......and at least 4 of them are going after the same guys you are. It's a part of the larger picture of why we are extreme long shots to ever land a top FA.
If a player is more concerned about a few percent in taxes on eight figures, or playing in pleasant weather, than the place that gives him the best shot at a ring, I don't want to root for him anyway.
I guess this means Smart will have to start and produce at both ends, and that Terry Rozier (or RJ) will have to play some key minutes off the bench. They are going to have to rely on small lineups, so Amir and Sully lose minutes that need to be replaced as well.
And they lose Bradley's shooting and defense. Rozier probably has the skills to replace some of that but obviously he lacks the experience.
And they lose Bradley's shooting and defense. Rozier probably has the skills to replace some of that but obviously he lacks the experience.
Schroder has a ton of trouble with the pressure but Teague went for 23/12.....it wasn't like AB was shutting him down. Smart and even Rozier off the bench can provide similar on the ball defense. Where AB will really be missed is offensively with his spacing in the halfcourt set as one of our few consistent perimeter shooters which is a weakness of ours even when he IS playing.
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Bradley wasn't on Teague all that long - I'd be willing to bet the majority of Teague's 23/12 were before/after Bradley had coverage. When Bradley went off, you could see Teague puff himself up and take the next defender (can't remember who it was) right to the hole. He was definitely affected by Bradley.
Without Bradley, the Celtics are effectively done. Even if they beat Atlanta (still possible with some contribution from the young ones), they can't beat anyone else in my opinion with out him. As said above - that sucks, because I also believe this playoff was a sort of audition for the best free agents out there as to how close we are - that they could be what lift us over the top. And without a good run, Danny's job is significantly harder.
I don't buy the making a run factor as a motivator for a FA aside from being nice PR-speak rather than saying "Boston offered the most money to offset spending winters in New England." Half the teams in the league could fit that mild playoff contender profile.
I also don't buy AB being an indispensable piece but he is important to our offense for spacing. I've heard this with Olynyk when he was out, with Smart, and then with Crowder......each time we lost one rotation player our results were still very good.
I also don't buy AB being an indispensable piece but he is important to our offense for spacing. I've heard this with Olynyk when he was out, with Smart, and then with Crowder......each time we lost one rotation player our results were still very good.
A playoff run wasn't going to be what brings players here. And if some player was using that to judge where they signed I'm pretty sure that player would realize Bradley was injured.
Also, the "can't beat anyone else" line--I mean, you gotta play the games. The East is one tweaked ankle away from being wide open. The same thing that happened to Bradley can happen to others. Just win game 2.
I disagree. I think having a team win a playoff round or two matters to a certain type ofFA. Like those who are interested in winning. It doesn't matter to those who are looking solely for the most money, which can be had from a myriad of teams
The Celtics selling points: young nucleus with assets to trade to get another elite player to go top FA. Top coach. History
Losing again in first round takes some luster of the coach and the perceived quality of the nucleus.
I suspect, however, that any FA signing would be part of a trade for another top flight player. A package deal. "I'll sign with you if you can acquire so and so as well"
The Celtics selling points: young nucleus with assets to trade to get another elite player to go top FA. Top coach. History
Losing again in first round takes some luster of the coach and the perceived quality of the nucleus.
I suspect, however, that any FA signing would be part of a trade for another top flight player. A package deal. "I'll sign with you if you can acquire so and so as well"
I believe Boston has a less than 3% chance at landing Durant. Having said that, and using him as an example: he is loved where he is. Assuming most of the free agent landing spots could offer him the same money - he would have to be an idiot to leave a place that loves him unless he believed he could move up a rung or two on the 'chances of winning it all" ladder. I'd say the same for any high profile free agent. Horford is in the same place in my opinion. Why would either of them move laterally? They wouldn't. They need to view their next team (if they intend to move at all) as a team that could/would win if they joined it. If they Celtics are unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs I think it hurts that perception. I think at the moment they have a less than 1% chance at landing Horford and Durant, but if they were to land one, the odds of landing both go up (assuming both are in play) by virtue of the jump in contender status. This is how Ainge convinced Garnett to come here, he made the Ray Allen deal and convinced Garnett that he was the final piece of a championship team. Do I think the Celtics are in the same place? No. Do I think Ainge is putting all his eggs in one basket? No. But anyone that thinks a marquee free agent is coming here without the perception of legitimate contender status upon arrival is watching a different league than I'm seeing.
We suffered but compensated for Olynyk when he was down (but our offense was not the same). I don't believe we really missed Smart that much. Crowder being out resulted in a noticeable difference in play - the GSW game notwithstanding. Regarding AB: His loss is a difference maker against the next teams because his loss takes them from 3 solid perimeter defenders to 2. Most of the remaining teams have at least 2 high powered options to be guarded and I don't believe that Smart and Crowder can do it by themselves. Rotating the 3 of them was an advantage that is now gone. Maybe every remaining team suffers a tweaked ankle or pulled hammy or something, that would be great. In the absence of that, I don't think they can advance past Atlanta (which I do think they can scrape out a win).
ETA: Or what ClearsCleaver said.
This has nothing to do with Boston, but...
Simmons just did a podcast with Haralobob, the highlight of which was Bob just teeing off on OKC. Bad coaching (Donovan is the new Scotty Brooks), bad talent (cupboard is bare after the 2 stars and a couple of decent guys), bad player usage decisions have (Waiters and Foye as backup PGs, while Cameron Payne doesn't get much of a look), on and on. If nothing else, it was an epic rant, which he ended with "I hope they both leave, it would serve OKC right if they did."
3% might be optimistic on Durant signing here, but he probably would have a better shot at a title if he did.
3% is highly optimistic on Durant however I don't place Horford anywhere close to the same league. OKC will offer max asap while there is doubt that Atlanta will do same with Horford who projects to be a real good role player during his next contract at ages 31-35, certainly not your go-to guy but he immediately solidifies your frontcourt.
We have an outside shot at Horford if we are one of the only max offers on the table......that isn't the case with Durant. It would be a pretty huge overpay but cap space next season isn't going to get you 16/9.
We have an outside shot at Horford if we are one of the only max offers on the table......that isn't the case with Durant. It would be a pretty huge overpay but cap space next season isn't going to get you 16/9.