Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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TL has been better & just as healthy as Jon Isaac & Isaac got 4/$70m.

It was an overpay, but TL's market isn't going to be that drastically lower, especially if he has a relatively healthy season.

I could see dumping Langford (& maybe PP or Nesmith if necessary), sliding under the # & then resigning TL for more than the hold after signing Beal, but I don't see a world where he signs for lower than the hold if not very injured, & even then maybe like 2/$20m where the 2nd year is a player option?
 

HomeRunBaker

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TL has been better & just as healthy as Jon Isaac & Isaac got 4/$70m.

It was an overpay, but TL's market isn't going to be that drastically lower, especially if he has a relatively healthy season.

I could see dumping Langford (& maybe PP or Nesmith if necessary), sliding under the # & then resigning TL for more than the hold after signing Beal, but I don't see a world where he signs for lower than the hold if not very injured, & even then maybe like 2/$20m where the 2nd year is a player option?
It’s apples and oranges comparing a guy with one injury that has close to 100% recovery with a guy who has had numerous chronic injuries that red flagged him dating back to draft night.
 

JM3

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It’s apples and oranges comparing a guy with one injury that has close to 100% recovery with a guy who has had numerous chronic injuries that red flagged him dating back to draft night.
That's not really true regarding Isaac...

DATE DESCRIPTION
08/02/2020 Knee
01/01/2020 Knee
12/18/2019 Hamstring/Back
11/15/2019 Right Ankle
04/09/2019 Concussion
11/02/2018 Right Ankle Sprain
04/02/2018 Sore Left Ankle
03/21/2018 Strained Left Foot
12/27/2017 Sore Ankle
12/20/2017 Ankle
11/12/2017 Sore Ankle

He's played 136 games in 4 seasons.
 

JM3

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It may not be chronic injuries, but it's not going to magically make TL worth 3/$25m.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It may not be chronic injuries, but it's not going to magically make TL worth 3/$25m.
You are correct in that these are not chronic injuries......which is why Isaac doesn’t appear to be a comp for a player with chronic hip and knee problems whose season just got cut short due to them. This seasons availability will tell us a lot about how we and others should value TL long term.
 

JM3

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You are correct in that these are not chronic injuries......which is why Isaac doesn’t appear to be a comp for a player with chronic hip and knee problems whose season just got cut short due to them. This seasons availability will tell us a lot about how we and others should value TL long term.
Do you think TL signs a contract worth 3/$25m?
 

benhogan

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It may not be chronic injuries, but it's not going to magically make TL worth 3/$25m.
Astute Celtic fans were looking to cut TL last year and considered him 3rd string material a few months into the year (behind TT and Daniel Theis :eek:). Isaac was never a 3rd stringer.

I know he's a professional athlete and they all want to make $100MM++ over their careers, but a guaranteed $25MM is a life changer that his agent/Rob would be nuts to feel insulted (see Boogie/Noel grass is greener approach). Sure they can roll the dice and it could work out, but Rob's past injuries/position will always limit years/size of contract.

TL will need to be handled with kid gloves/load managed and even then his health is a wild card. I believe the Cs have enough cheap 5 depth that they could withstand limited regular-season minutes from Rob. So 3yrs @ $30MM + 4th year option should be the max offer from PBS
 

JM3

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If he plays 82 games?
If he plays 35 games?
If he plays 0 games?

This year is a big year for him physically.
It shouldn't be as it's a small sample size.

But yeah, if he plays 0, 3/$25m wouldn't be off the table.

I think someone would still pay him more, though, depending on the exact reason for the 0.
 

JM3

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Astute Celtic fans were looking to cut TL last year and considered him 3rd string material a few months into the year (behind TT and Daniel Theis :eek:). Isaac was never a 3rd stringer.

I know he's a professional athlete and they all want to make $100MM++ over their careers, but a guaranteed $25MM is a life changer that his agent/Rob would be nuts to feel insulted (see Boogie/Noel grass is greener approach). Sure they can roll the dice and it could work out, but Rob's past injuries/position will always limit years/size of contract.

TL will need to be handled with kid gloves/load managed and even then his health is a wild card. I believe the Cs have enough cheap 5 depth that they could withstand limited regular-season minutes from Rob. So 3yrs @ $30MM + 4th year option should be the max offer from PBS
I haven't been around that long, & certainly would never besmirch the astuteness of any poster...but cutting TL at any point of his career thus far would have been a foolish thing to do, even if he never got better/healthier.
 

benhogan

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I haven't been around that long, & certainly would never besmirch the astuteness of any poster...but cutting TL at any point of his career thus far would have been a foolish thing to do, even if he never got better/healthier.
Agreed.

It's more that there were varying opinions of him from draft day until Feb this year, then he had some eye-opening games/weeks, then got injured again. Then killed it in a playoff game, then got injured again.

Offering him 3 @ $25MM isn't "line the Owners pocket move". It's practically all the room they will have, he and his agent should understand the math. Plus it's a chance for TL to cash in on a few good months. The Celtics would want him to be a key part (4th highest-paid player/starter?) of a championship-caliber club, that's quite a jump from where he was this time last year.

If TL bet on himself that isn't a bad thing for the Celtics either.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It shouldn't be as it's a small sample size.

But yeah, if he plays 0, 3/$25m wouldn't be off the table.

I think someone would still pay him more, though, depending on the exact reason for the 0.
If you have a red flagged injury as TL does and play 0 or 35 games due to this injury I have a hard time believing a GM would be viewing this as a “small sample”.......they would be running from anything more than a 1+1 $5m contract.

Otoh, if he plays 65-70+ games without issues and continues his ascend then he’s going to get P-A-I-D.......but it won’t be by us if we sign Beal.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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No blue check mark, but the account has half a million followers, so....

View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1421496906358968331
Them and Hoop Central are aggregator accounts, they tweet out stuff from other reports, podcasts, tweets, and articles without linking to them. Basically the reliability varies based on who they are citing. Usually it's best to dig to find the original source (hard without them linking, sometimes) to see if it feels credible.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Agreed.

It's more that there were varying opinions of him from draft day until Feb this year, then he had some eye-opening games/weeks, then got injured again. Then killed it in a playoff game, then got injured again.

Offering him 3 @ $25MM isn't "line the Owners pocket move". It's practically all the room they will have, he and his agent should understand the math. Plus it's a chance for TL to cash in on a few good months. The Celtics would want him to be a key part (4th highest-paid player/starter?) of a championship-caliber club, that's quite a jump from where he was this time last year.

If TL bet on himself that isn't a bad thing for the Celtics either.
If they sign Beal into space, the only real limit on a TL contract would be luxury tax implications.

I'm not talking about anyone being offended, but I think he would get significantly more on the open market, so I don't think he would take less to stick around.
 

JM3

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If you have a red flagged injury as TL does and play 0 or 35 games due to this injury I have a hard time believing a GM would be viewing this as a “small sample”.......they would be running from anything more than a 1+1 $5m contract.

Otoh, if he plays 65-70+ games without issues and continues his ascend then he’s going to get P-A-I-D.......but it won’t be by us if we sign Beal.
I'm not talking about perception, though. If he runs good on injuries next year that doesn't mean he's worth $20m+ & if he runs bad on injuries next year that doesn't mean he's worth $5m.

That doesn't mean he won't get overpaid or underpaid based on that, but if he plays 82 games I would hate for them to pay him $20m+ & if he played 0 I would be crazy excited to pay him $5m because his health over 1 season doesn't have nearly that huge of an impact on his expected value for future seasons.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not talking about perception, though. If he runs good on injuries next year that doesn't mean he's worth $20m+ & if he runs bad on injuries next year that doesn't mean he's worth $5m.

That doesn't mean he won't get overpaid or underpaid based on that, but if he plays 82 games I would hate for them to pay him $20m+ & if he played 0 I would be crazy excited to pay him $5m because his health over 1 season doesn't have nearly that huge of an impact on his expected value for future seasons.
If a player with TL’s history of hip and knee injuries doesn’t play next year due to hip and knee injuries I’d say that is extremely impactful information. How can you claim that it wouldn’t be?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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If a player with TL’s history of hip and knee injuries doesn’t play next year due to hip and knee injuries I’d say that is extremely impactful information. How can you claim that it wouldn’t be?
Yeah I don't get it. If he plays a full 82 games, it probably means he's actually healthy and might be going forward. If he plays 4, well... for all we know his career is over.

A season of full health or a completely missed season says a lot.
 

Euclis20

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Whether it's here or somewhere else, I really do hope that TL gets healthy and hits his full potential. There's a really special player here, well beyond the rim running high flying archetype he profiles as. Among qualifying players, he was 3rd in blocks/36 this year. Looking at the top 10 in blocks/36, here's where he ranks:

FG%: 1st
Assists/36: 1st
Steals/36: 1st (tied)
Rebounds/36: 3rd

He's also the second youngest player on that top 10. I'd be incredibly worried about giving him a long term deal of almost any size, but I really can't visualize what he'll look like at his peak (in a good way).
 

benhogan

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If they sign Beal into space, the only real limit on a TL contract would be luxury tax implications.

I'm not talking about anyone being offended, but I think he would get significantly more on the open market, so I don't think he would take less to stick around.
The $25MM guaranteed now was to get the CAP-hold lower.

Sure if he waits around, gambles on himself and earns that big payday, GREAT! pay that man his money
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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......which is why Isaac doesn’t appear to be a comp for a player with chronic hip and knee problems whose season just got cut short due to them.
Huh? TL was playing through a turf toe and then his season ended because of a left ankle sprain, neither of which anyone suggested were due to his hip/knee issues. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31548630/boston-celtics-face-elimination-kemba-walker-robert-williams-game-5-vs-brooklyn-nets

I mean certainly hip/knee issues can lead to other structural stuff that could make TL prone to sprained ankles and stuff but one would think the Cs medical staff could help him figure that out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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HomeRunBaker

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Huh? TL was playing through a turf toe and then his season ended because of a left ankle sprain, neither of which anyone suggested were due to his hip/knee issues. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31548630/boston-celtics-face-elimination-kemba-walker-robert-williams-game-5-vs-brooklyn-nets

I mean certainly hip/knee issues can lead to other structural stuff that could make TL prone to sprained ankles and stuff but one would think the Cs medical staff could help him figure that out.
TL has had chronic tendinitis in his knee for well over a year. As soon as his minutes were ramped up last year he had more swelling and was shut down. The turf TPE thing happened later after he missed several weeks with the knee.
 

benhogan

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Did Brad want to send Brown and Carsen as the dump or could he have wanted to include others such as Grant or Pritchard too? I like his approach of dumping all these bags of end of bench wastelands to bring in expiring deals for next summers bonanza.
PP and even Grant :eek: both have excess value to their contracts.
 

Jimbodandy

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TL has had chronic tendinitis in his knee for well over a year. As soon as his minutes were ramped up last year he had more swelling and was shut down. The turf TPE thing happened later after he missed several weeks with the knee.
HRB spends so much time in the port cellar that his phone autocorrected "toe" to "TPE". I love this irrationally.
 

128

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Not sure if this means anything, but the C's have yet to announce the Tristan Thompson-Kris Dunn deal, which I believe went down before the trade for Josh Richardson.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not sure if this means anything, but the C's have yet to announce the Tristan Thompson-Kris Dunn deal, which I believe went down before the trade for Josh Richardson.
There are probably still some potential moving parts before it’s official with other players such as Dunn being moved to a 4th team.
 

Cellar-Door

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Not sure if this means anything, but the C's have yet to announce the Tristan Thompson-Kris Dunn deal, which I believe went down before the trade for Josh Richardson.
They're independent, so don't have to be announced in order. Would guess it takes longer to get the final signoffs from each team on a 3 way trade (especially on an offseason Saturday with a West Coast team).
 

NomarsFool

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Sending out Moses makes the Kemba trade sting a little bit more, as one could squint really hard and make yourself believe Moses was almost sort of as good a young prospect as who they might have taken with the 16th pick.

Richardson, to me, sort of seems like doing little more than kicking the can down the road on the TPE. It's not a bad move, but it's not a move that you want to have to give up an asset for. So, if you believe Brown wasn't an asset, the Richardson deal is fine, but if that's the case, the Kemba trade stings a bit more.
 

Jimbodandy

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Sending out Moses makes the Kemba trade sting a little bit more, as one could squint really hard and make yourself believe Moses was almost sort of as good a young prospect as who they might have taken with the 16th pick.

Richardson, to me, sort of seems like doing little more than kicking the can down the road on the TPE. It's not a bad move, but it's not a move that you want to have to give up an asset for. So, if you believe Brown wasn't an asset, the Richardson deal is fine, but if that's the case, the Kemba trade stings a bit more.
I think you were squinting very hard. We have a lot of jags. One more or less doesn't really move the needle at all.
 

benhogan

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Sending out Moses makes the Kemba trade sting a little bit more, as one could squint really hard and make yourself believe Moses was almost sort of as good a young prospect as who they might have taken with the 16th pick.

Richardson, to me, sort of seems like doing little more than kicking the can down the road on the TPE. It's not a bad move, but it's not a move that you want to have to give up an asset for. So, if you believe Brown wasn't an asset, the Richardson deal is fine, but if that's the case, the Kemba trade stings a bit more.
while I felt getting Moses Brown was like getting a late 1st/early 2nd, many around here felt he was included strictly for the money.

After this deal, have to believe they were correct. Kudos to those who correctly called it
 

the moops

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Moses Brown is heading into his 3rd year in the NBA. I think that precludes him from being compared to any late 1st or early 2nd this year. He is young, but the lack of 4 years of control is huge
 

benhogan

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Moses Brown is heading into his 3rd year in the NBA. I think that precludes him from being compared to any late 1st or early 2nd this year. He is young, but the lack of 4 years of control is huge
3yrs of control
His contract includes a $500,000 guarantee in 2021/22
He has $923,369 guaranteed on his 2022/23 contract if not waived by December 1, 2022.
Also has $998,859 guaranteed on his 2023/24 contract if not waived by December 1, 2023.

OKC did the deal at the end of March, so it's strange that they cut bait with him so quickly if they just wanted to get rid of him just for the $$$. They had other players they could have used to make the money work
 
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Cellar-Door

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It’s a good thing that we seem unwilling to meet that price. Fournier is a 10-15/year talent, not a 20/year talent.
I have no problem with the market putting him at 20, I think most years he'd get the deal he just had (4/17per). He's a talented scorer, those guys almost always get paid. He's at a similar level to the two Bogdanovices and each got 18M+ per year in markets with more good players and less free cap.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It’s a good thing that we seem unwilling to meet that price. Fournier is a 10-15/year talent, not a 20/year talent.
On our team it doesn’t matter much if it’s 10 or 20 in that it clogs up the cap for our primary objective. He’s a bad fit for what we are trying to accomplish.
 

moondog80

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Evan Fournier is exactly the type of player for whom you don't want to get in a bidding war.