Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

TripleOT

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Is Fournier good enough as the third star for the Celtics to win a title in the next three years? If not, move on, try to fill that wing role with the MLE, and develop Nesmith and Romeo.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Is Fournier good enough as the third star for the Celtics to win a title in the next three years? If not, move on, try to fill that wing role with the MLE, and develop Nesmith and Romeo.
That's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is, why not sign Fournier and use the (taxpayer) MLE (and/or trade TT for someone that fills that salary slot)? Unless he gets crazy money (in which case, I agree the Celtics will move on), Fournier strikes me as a guy that would be fairly easy to move if that elusive "trade for a third star" (think Beal, Lillard, or whatever) ever became a possibility.
 

pjheff

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The clearing cap space for 2023 is a pipedream. I don't think the Celtics have any intention of gutting the roster down to nothing to open space. They almost certainly plan to operate above the cap every year. I have yet to see a good argument for why letting Fournier walk, letting Smart walk, letting TL walk, declining most of the rookie deal guys' option all to sign a guy (likely an aging star) in 2 years makes any sense at all. You waste more than half of the current deals of your stars that way.
Because you think that the Jays and role players are not and will not be good enough to win a championship. If Stevens believes that he needs a third cornerstone player, then he really only has two options to acquire one: via trade or free agency. And while I’d prefer the former to the latter, and the sooner to the later, I wouldn’t foreclose any opportunity for the privilege of committing a fourth year to Evan Fournier.
 

Jimbodandy

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That's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is, why not sign Fournier and use the (taxpayer) MLE (and/or trade TT for someone that fills that salary slot)? Unless he gets crazy money (in which case, I agree the Celtics will move on), Fournier strikes me as a guy that would be fairly easy to move if that elusive "trade for a third star" (think Beal, Lillard, or whatever) ever became a possibility.
This is my thought. Does Fournier become untradeable at that 4/90 deal for a piece later? I don't think so, but I'm legit asking. All I'm getting back is "fuck paying that to Fournier". So consensus is that we'd rather lose that guy and get back a second rounder or two than have him around? Or we'd rather lowball everyone we can in the hope that we can gut the roster in two years for a third banana? I'm not following.
 

djbayko

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Fournier is going to go where the money is. You need to accept that. This free agent class is horrific, so bad that Fournier is near the top of it. He’s getting paid this summer. And my guess is that the price is going to be so high that Boston declines to lock themselves in to Fournier as the third star, And if the choices are several firsts or nothing, I’m going with the first.
If that's what ends up happening, then what a terrible trade that was. It's not like the free agent class was unknown at the time. They knew what they were getting into.
 

OurF'ingCity

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If that's what ends up happening, then what a terrible trade that was. It's not like the free agent class was unknown at the time. They knew what they were getting into.
They only gave up 2 second-rounders (and the unnecessary Jeff Teague) - probably precisely because they weren't 100% sure that they would be re-signing Fournier this year. I know second-rounders do have some value, but hard to call that a "terrible trade."
 

djbayko

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They only gave up 2 second-rounders (and the unnecessary Jeff Teague) - probably precisely because they weren't 100% sure that they would be re-signing Fournier this year. I know second-rounders do have some value, but hard to call that a "terrible trade."
And the TPE, right?
 

nighthob

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If that's what ends up happening, then what a terrible trade that was. It's not like the free agent class was unknown at the time. They knew what they were getting into.
I mean trading a pair of seconds in the hope that Fournier could help them to make a playoff run isn't a terrible deal. They got the standard short term rental price for a non-star. But if the Knicks decide that after striking out on The Lonz that they need someone and offer NG a 4/96 deal, do you see Boston matching it? Because I don't.
 

nighthob

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And the TPE, right?
Part of the trade exception. They still have around $11 million of it left (technically this was a non-simultaneous trade, they're entitled to take back up to Hayward's first year salary to complete the deal, so far they only used up Fournier's salary).
 

djbayko

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I mean trading a pair of seconds in the hope that Fournier could help them to make a playoff run isn't a terrible deal. They got the standard short term rental price for a non-star. But if the Knicks decide that after striking out on The Lonz that they need someone and offer NG a 4/96 deal, do you see Boston matching it? Because I don't.
No, I don't. I guess what I'm saying is that I personally had not thought that far ahead (free agency prospects) at the time of the trade, but DA definitely should have. I guess I disagree that it was wise to spend future assets adding a marginal player to this year's cast for a possible playoff run only.
 

chilidawg

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I mean trading a pair of seconds in the hope that Fournier could help them to make a playoff run isn't a terrible deal. They got the standard short term rental price for a non-star. But if the Knicks decide that after striking out on The Lonz that they need someone and offer NG a 4/96 deal, do you see Boston matching it? Because I don't.
The thing that never made sense to me was why make the trade for Fournier to make a playoff run and then dump Theis to save money? Ended up being a lateral move at best when TL inevitably got hurt again.
 

JakeRae

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This is my thought. Does Fournier become untradeable at that 4/90 deal for a piece later? I don't think so, but I'm legit asking. All I'm getting back is "fuck paying that to Fournier". So consensus is that we'd rather lose that guy and get back a second rounder or two than have him around? Or we'd rather lowball everyone we can in the hope that we can gut the roster in two years for a third banana? I'm not following.
No one is untraceable. But Fournier would immediately be a negative value on anything other than a 1 year deal that pays him more than 20/year. He’s at best about a 15/year player in on court value.

To answer the question others are asking about whether he can be our third star, the answer is no and that’s the wrong question. Fournier, if resigned, will be the 6th best player on the roster, at best. Smart, Timelord, and Horford are all materially better than Fournier.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The thing that never made sense to me was why make the trade for Fournier to make a playoff run and then dump Theis to save money? Ended up being a lateral move at best when TL inevitably got hurt again.
Luxury tax. By getting under the line and JT not making All-NBA, this season was very good for the owners' pocketbooks. Hopefully they will recirculate those savings into salaries down the line.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Changing gears, some coaching news:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/02/sports/celtics-coaching-staff-beginning-take-shape-with-one-new-arrival-two-departures/

A league source confirmed Friday that longtime Spurs assistant Will Hardy will be hired as one of Boston’s top assistants.
longtime Celtics assistant coaches Jamie Young and Jay Larranaga told the Globe that their contracts were not renewed and that they will not return.
a league source said that assistant coach Joe Mazzulla is expected to be retained by Udoka.
All in all, positive news I think. Jamie Young isn't a name I'm familiar with, but he's apparently been here for like 20 years. Mazzulla, if I recall, is tight with Tatum, so that was expected.
 

nighthob

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The thing that never made sense to me was why make the trade for Fournier to make a playoff run and then dump Theis to save money? Ended up being a lateral move at best when TL inevitably got hurt again.
Unfortunately they needed to reset the luxury tax this year because they're going to be paying the tax for the foreseeable future.
 

Cellar-Door

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Because you think that the Jays and role players are not and will not be good enough to win a championship. If Stevens believes that he needs a third cornerstone player, then he really only has two options to acquire one: via trade or free agency. And while I’d prefer the former to the latter, and the sooner to the later, I wouldn’t foreclose any opportunity for the privilege of committing a fourth year to Evan Fournier.
Yeah but here's the thing. You also foreclose it (or make it very very difficult) by doing things like re-signing TL or Smart, or using your 1sts the next 2 years, or picking up the options on the current rookie deal guys. Honestly if you have a true star who wants to come here in 2023, you're better off doing a S&T for him anyway. Something like the Heat did with Jimmy Butler. There isn't really a good case for building by FA for this team. You throw away 2 of your 4 years of Tatum Brown, which may well mean that rather than a 3rd joining them, they're pushing to be traded to become a 3rd elsewhere. Also... depth matters. A truly empty roster plus Brown/Tatum/3rd guy probably can't do much it's first year, you'd need to be 2-3 years in before you've added the depth you need via exceptions etc.
Planning to clear for 2023 is basically punting the entire Brown contract and hoping you not only can add the perfect 3rd, but the constant failure and gutted roster don't make Tatum want out.

There is a reason teams with 2 stars (maybe slightly generous to Brown) almost always add the 3rd via trade. Barring something like the freak 1 year jump GS got, it's just not really easy to do. Much easier to trade for your Harden, PG13, etc.
 

pjheff

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Yeah but here's the thing. You also foreclose it (or make it very very difficult) by doing things like re-signing TL or Smart, or using your 1sts the next 2 years, or picking up the options on the current rookie deal guys. Honestly if you have a true star who wants to come here in 2023, you're better off doing a S&T for him anyway. Something like the Heat did with Jimmy Butler. There isn't really a good case for building by FA for this team. You throw away 2 of your 4 years of Tatum Brown, which may well mean that rather than a 3rd joining them, they're pushing to be traded to become a 3rd elsewhere. Also... depth matters. A truly empty roster plus Brown/Tatum/3rd guy probably can't do much it's first year, you'd need to be 2-3 years in before you've added the depth you need via exceptions etc.
Planning to clear for 2023 is basically punting the entire Brown contract and hoping you not only can add the perfect 3rd, but the constant failure and gutted roster don't make Tatum want out.

There is a reason teams with 2 stars (maybe slightly generous to Brown) almost always add the 3rd via trade. Barring something like the freak 1 year jump GS got, it's just not really easy to do. Much easier to trade for your Harden, PG13, etc.
That’s why I said that I’d prefer a trade to free agency, and sooner to later. But if no trade is realized, then in my opinion Stevens should be aiming for free agency in the summer of ‘23, and he shouldn’t allow extensions to role players — and here I include Fournier, TL, and Smart — to interfere with that opportunity.
 

Cellar-Door

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That’s why I said that I’d prefer a trade to free agency, and sooner to later. But if no trade is realized, then in my opinion Stevens should be aiming for free agency in the summer of ‘23, and he shouldn’t allow extensions to role players — and here I include Fournier, TL, and Smart — to interfere with that opportunity.
Honestly... if you can't see a path before FA in 2023, you trade Jaylen Brown for a star now. It gives you more real chances to win a title before you lose Tatum.
 

Smokey Joe

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I find it fascinating that the board is talking about how much we underestimate how much our free agents will get in the marketplace and how Fournier is going to get 18 -22 million a year, when i just finished listening to the “Dunked On” offseason outlook for Boston (posted 7/1/21) and they were expecting him to get 12-13 million, maybe 15 million if he got lucky. And they like Fournier. So maybe we aren’t the only ones who underestimate.
 

cheech13

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I find it fascinating that the board is talking about how much we underestimate how much our free agents will get in the marketplace and how Fournier is going to get 18 -22 million a year, when i just finished listening to the “Dunked On” offseason outlook for Boston (posted 7/1/21) and they were expecting him to get 12-13 million, maybe 15 million if he got lucky. And they like Fournier. So maybe we aren’t the only ones who underestimate.
The reason I stopped listening to that podcast was that they consistently seemed to underestimate what players actually get in free agency.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I find it fascinating that the board is talking about how much we underestimate how much our free agents will get in the marketplace and how Fournier is going to get 18 -22 million a year, when i just finished listening to the “Dunked On” offseason outlook for Boston (posted 7/1/21) and they were expecting him to get 12-13 million, maybe 15 million if he got lucky. And they like Fournier. So maybe we aren’t the only ones who underestimate.
They are so out of touch with the market imo.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Which of the cap space teams do we see as likely Fournier suitors?
With so many teams having money to spend and Fournier being one of the top guards available in a weak class he is in a perfect position of landing with a team who gets shut out of their top choice and/or lose their own guy. There are like 7-8 teams who could be making a high dollar FA signing. Hard to narrow down since Fournier isn’t anyone’s primary target......he’s going to be a guy who gets a big offer once the first couple shoes drop from teams who don’t want to get shut out. Ironically, that is also how he ended up in Boston.
 

ehaz

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I find it fascinating that the board is talking about how much we underestimate how much our free agents will get in the marketplace and how Fournier is going to get 18 -22 million a year, when i just finished listening to the “Dunked On” offseason outlook for Boston (posted 7/1/21) and they were expecting him to get 12-13 million, maybe 15 million if he got lucky. And they like Fournier. So maybe we aren’t the only ones who underestimate.
Yeah no way. That’s Luke Kennard money.
 

the moops

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I can't see Dallas blowing it's chances of getting another star next off-season to pair with Luka by paying 20+ million a year for Fournier
 

HomeRunBaker

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I can't see Dallas blowing it's chances of getting another star next off-season to pair with Luka by paying 20+ million a year for Fournier
You think Dallas will stand pat $20m or so under the cap? Let’s ask Doncic how he feels about that.....he may demand a trade prior to training camp. That isn’t how business is done in this league unless you are out and out tanking.
 

slamminsammya

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If they deal Thompson do they sign another better-than-Kornet center? Just reading about the big increase in injuries this year and the expectation that will continue next year due to another shortened offseason plus Timelord's injury history and Horford being old it seems like they definitely need 3 legit centers to survive the regular season, no?
 

Cesar Crespo

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If they deal Thompson do they sign another better-than-Kornet center? Just reading about the big increase in injuries this year and the expectation that will continue next year due to another shortened offseason plus Timelord's injury history and Horford being old it seems like they definitely need 3 legit centers to survive the regular season, no?
Why? If TL or TT Al gets injured, just pick up a big during buy out season. There's no reason to start the season with 3 legit bigs.
 
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Smokey Joe

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If they deal Thompson do they sign another better-than-Kornet center? Just reading about the big increase in injuries this year and the expectation that will continue next year due to another shortened offseason plus Timelord's injury history and Horford being old it seems like they definitely need 3 legit centers to survive the regular season, no?
Moses wants to know if he’s chopped liver. Not to mention Grant Williams can suck up some minutes if necessary.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why? If TL or TT gets injured, just pick up a big during buy out season. There's no reason to start the season with 3 legit bigs.
What are the chances TT is here for training camp? I’ve got it at 15-20%. Brad isn’t running it back after last year.
 

slamminsammya

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Moses wants to know if he’s chopped liver. Not to mention Grant Williams can suck up some minutes if necessary.
Yeah, I guess the question is how much price you are willing to pay for developmental minutes (for Moses) and making me mental minutes (Grant at center).

Kornet, Wagner, and Tacko combined for about 460 minutes last year, plus about 100 ish minutes of Grant at center.

That leaves about 3300 minutes to allocate among Horford and TL - and I was talking about a situation where Thompson is traded. If either Horford or TL miss significant time you are doubling or tripling the minutes you had for minutes sucker upper big guys last year. Seems like a lot of minutes to give to random guys. Do you want Moses Brown getting 1000 minutes? Thats how much he played for a Thunder team that was not concerned with winning.
 

Devizier

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You think Dallas will stand pat $20m or so under the cap? Let’s ask Doncic how he feels about that.....he may demand a trade prior to training camp. That isn’t how business is done in this league unless you are out and out tanking.
They can (and probably will) use a pick to move Dwight Powell for an expiring contract anyways.
 

benhogan

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Do you want Moses Brown getting 1000 minutes? Thats how much he played for a Thunder team that was not concerned with winning.
Moses, Kornet (or the like), and Grant can split the depth (3rd-5th string) at the 5 until February.

Post-trade deadline, vet centers on minimums annually get offered for free to playoff-bound teams. I'd still advocate for adding a 5 on a 2-way for smashing glass purposes.

Just note, Popovich (w/ Ime as an asst) had Jaylen Brown play the 5 for Team USA numerous games 2 summers ago. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a fair amount of 5 wings (w/Smart being the ballhandler) on the floor at once. Which decreases the need for dinosaurs to roam the roster.
 

TripleOT

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I am interested to see Moses Brown play some minutes with good players. We know he can offensive rebound and dunk when defenses are scrambling, which hopefully will happen when the Two Pillars attack. He also can rim run on
p/r, something that should be a staple of the offense with TL being one of the best ever at it.
 

Swedgin

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as most have mentioned Dallas and

I've also heard Memphis will have over $22MM available
Thanks. Do you think Dallas prefers him over Hardaway Jr, or is the assumption Hardaway goes elsewhere? Initially I assumed Dallas would prefer Hardaway due to age until I saw that Evan is actually the younger of the two.

Memphis makes a ton of sense. They need a wing and (like everyone) more shooting.
 

benhogan

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Thanks. Do you think Dallas prefers him over Hardaway Jr, or is the assumption Hardaway goes elsewhere? Initially I assumed Dallas would prefer Hardaway due to age until I saw that Evan is actually the younger of the two.

Memphis makes a ton of sense. They need a wing and (like everyone) more shooting.
think I heard Memphis rumor on Locked On podcast (they'd have to decline MKG option). It kind of makes sense.

If the Fournier market gets to $90MM+ for 4yrs, things get itchy and Brad may flinch.

a S&T with Memphis with Tyus Jones or Kyle Anderson coming back (+TPE) would make it more palatable. If nothing else the Celtics would win the all-important TPE contest.
 

BigMike

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You think Dallas will stand pat $20m or so under the cap? Let’s ask Doncic how he feels about that.....he may demand a trade prior to training camp. That isn’t how business is done in this league unless you are out and out tanking.
I don't think there is any chance Dallas will stand pat with 20 million under the cap. I think they intend to be very aggressive this offseason, I just think Fournier is probably about plan M for them. Obviously they will go big after Kawai if he becomes available, and then beyond that will be very aggressive trying to make trades happen to bring in bigger names.

I am sure Memphis will try to leverage their cap space and excess of young talent and potential draft options, to try and get in the market for bigger and better guys, but they are not desperate like Dallas, and thus far less likely to get a big deal done

I can't see Dallas blowing it's chances of getting another star next off-season to pair with Luka by paying 20+ million a year for Fournier
But, can't they just use fournier in the sign and trade deal for someone in 2022, or 2023.
 

nighthob

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I don't think there is any chance Dallas will stand pat with 20 million under the cap. I think they intend to be very aggressive this offseason, I just think Fournier is probably about plan M for them. Obviously they will go big after Kawai if he becomes available, and then beyond that will be very aggressive trying to make trades happen to bring in bigger names.
The problem is that they don't have a lot to deal aside from Josh Richardson (nice, but a roleplayer level talent) and they have to attach bad salary to him to make numbers work. There is the Tim Hardaway Jr. sign & trade route, but I don't see many teams out there wiling to hard cap themselves for THJ (and certainly not the Clippers). Their best bet, long term, is to sign a free agent with resale value and saving their powder for a deadline deal next year. That might be THJ. But Fournier also looks good in that role.
 

pjheff

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The problem is that they don't have a lot to deal aside from Josh Richardson (nice, but a roleplayer level talent) and they have to attach bad salary to him to make numbers work.
Would you accept Richardson into the remainder of the Hayward TPE?