Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

HomeRunBaker

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I think this is selling McCollum short. He is a much more valuable player than Fournier and would be a significant upgrade, IMO
Both players have warts. Fournier it’s his lack of defensive switchability and inability to play any 1 offensively. CJ is also his defense but most importantly a 4th broken foot will possibly effectively end his career. Where is Doc?
 

the moops

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Both players have warts. Fournier it’s his lack of defensive switchability and inability to play any 1 offensively. CJ is also his defense but most importantly a 4th broken foot will possibly effectively end his career. Where is Doc?
It's not as if Fournier has been the healthiest player. Since both started playing big minutes, 6 years ago, Fournier has played 79, 68, 57, 81, 66, 42 games. CJ has played 80, 80, 81, 70, 70, 47. And he is only 1 year older, so we aren't talking too much difference in age.
 

benhogan

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It's not as if Fournier has been the healthiest player. Since both started playing big minutes, 6 years ago, Fournier has played 79, 68, 57, 81, 66, 42 games. CJ has played 80, 80, 81, 70, 70, 47. And he is only 1 year older, so we aren't talking too much difference in age.
Kemba-esque :eek:

going forward you're better off looking at how much would CJ/Fournier's games deteriorate if there was a loss of quickness/speed due to age/injury. Plus contract size, to get out of if necessary.

CJ is a negative asset, doesn't timeline and is a bad fit here. CJ makes more sense on the 76ers
 

Cellar-Door

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Kemba-esque :eek:

going forward you're better off looking at how much would CJ/Fournier's games deteriorate if there was a loss of quickness/speed due to age/injury. Plus contract size, to get out of if necessary.

CJ is a negative asset, doesn't timeline and is a bad fit here. CJ makes more sense on the 76ers
I don't think CJ is a negative asset. I do think that he's a bad fit here where his greatest strength (the ability to dominate the ball for long stretches without turning it over or losing efficiency) is less valuable. PHI makes sense, I think he'd be very valuable for a team like the Knicks as well, Denver too. Teams that need a wing/guard who can be trusted to have the ball a lot on the dribble. BOS doesn't need that, we need guys who can catch the ball and shoot, or catch and make the right decision. CJ can do that too, but so can Fournier, for just money.
 

DJnVa

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It's not as if Fournier has been the healthiest player. Since both started playing big minutes, 6 years ago, Fournier has played 79, 68, 57, 81, 66, 42 games.
Well, 2 seasons ago, he played 66--there were only 73 games that season. That's not horrible. And he sat out the last 3 of the season before going 30+ minutes in all the postseason games. That could have been some load management or small issue that really wasn't a big deal.

This past year kinda sucked but I'm not really holding COVID against players in this kind of situation.
 

EL Jeffe

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Someone mentioned Brogdon the other day, and man, he'd be a nice 3rd piece to play off of the Jays. I can see Indiana retooling, and I can see Carlisle being interested in Smart to change the culture of the team. Smart, Time Lord and Langford for Brogdon works in the Trade Machine, but that's a gamble depending on how bullish you are on TL and/or Romeo. But slotting Brogdon at the 1 as a secondary scorer, shooter/floor spacer, and versatile defender at a reasonable contract makes sense.
 

JakeRae

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Someone mentioned Brogdon the other day, and man, he'd be a nice 3rd piece to play off of the Jays. I can see Indiana retooling, and I can see Carlisle being interested in Smart to change the culture of the team. Smart, Time Lord and Langford for Brogdon works in the Trade Machine, but that's a gamble depending on how bullish you are on TL and/or Romeo. But slotting Brogdon at the 1 as a secondary scorer, shooter/floor spacer, and versatile defender at a reasonable contract makes sense.
This trade really doesn’t make any sense for Boston. Outside of one really strong season that’s now three seasons ago, Brogdon is, at best, as good as Smart. Trading 2 starters and a potential rotation player for a guy who is arguably not even the second best player in the trade (depending on what you think of Timelord’s ability to stay healthy) is not a winning move.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah Brogdon has regressed a lot, particularly his defense has really fallen off. He doesn't really move the needle for me.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It really feels like some trade ideas are manifestation of familiarity breeding contempt. Brogdon and Smart are certainly in the same zip code in terms of production (though how they get there is very different) but its a lateral move at best overall just looking at a straight swap. CD gets it right - if you are going to make a trade, especially of assets like Smart who is valuable to the Celtics as a player, you should be aiming for more than a par for par exchange of talent imo.
 

TripleOT

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No way I’m putting TL in a deal to make the money work. If the Pacers want to do a Smart for Brogdon, use TT to make the money work. They can offload him later. Also, throw Edwards into that deal
 

EL Jeffe

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Fair enough. I just really like Brogdon's roster fit here (versus Smart's), but it's hard making realistic offers IND would actually accept. I can't see IND taking a bunch of pennies and nickels for him, but I also wouldn't be excited about moving TL for him either (but giving TL a big contract also makes me a little nervous, too).

Edit: Also, I don't know if I'm overrating Brogdon, or if he's being underrated here. He's coming off a 21/5/6 season, and has increased his scoring every year in the league. The advanced stats are a mixed bag, but that's kind of the nature of mixed stats in general. I don't know about a regression; he looked solid in my limited viewing of IND games this past year.
 
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bakahump

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Its easier to see Indiana taking a bunch of Pennies and nickels if you see Brogdon as a Dime. I think thats the discrepancy. You see him as a 50 cent piece or maybe a quarter.

So a nickel and 3 pennies (whose contracts are better) start to look a bit more palatable.
 

nighthob

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Someone mentioned Brogdon the other day, and man, he'd be a nice 3rd piece to play off of the Jays. I can see Indiana retooling, and I can see Carlisle being interested in Smart to change the culture of the team. Smart, Time Lord and Langford for Brogdon works in the Trade Machine, but that's a gamble depending on how bullish you are on TL and/or Romeo. But slotting Brogdon at the 1 as a secondary scorer, shooter/floor spacer, and versatile defender at a reasonable contract makes sense.
The problem is that Smart to Brogdon is sort of a lateral move, and even if you include Langford and Williams Pritchard will still demand 3 first round picks and three pick swaps to make the trade. No thanks. Pritchard can live with the roster he created.

Put another way you'd want to add Brogdon to the JayCrew and Marcus. Not instead of. Especially given the draft haul that Pritchard would demand.
 
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benhogan

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Fair enough. I just really like Brogdon's roster fit here (versus Smart's), but it's hard making realistic offers IND would actually accept. I can't see IND taking a bunch of pennies and nickels for him, but I also wouldn't be excited about moving TL for him either (but giving TL a big contract also makes me a little nervous, too).

Edit: Also, I don't know if I'm overrating Brogdon, or if he's being underrated here. He's coming off a 21/5/6 season, and has increased his scoring every year in the league. The advanced stats are a mixed bag, but that's kind of the nature of mixed stats in general. I don't know about a regression; he looked solid in my limited viewing of IND games this past year.
yea, I've been a Brogdon fan for a while, Danny whiffed on him a few seasons back going for the glamour signing.

while I like Brogdon a hair better than Smart, I wouldn't add those assets.

TL has an absurd amount of upside value here, he isn't going anywhere. Selling Langford low wouldn't really work for me

Plus Pritchard is a prick, let him stew with his malaise of a roster.

Smart + TT for Brogdon is fine, but Brad would get the phone slammed down on him
 

ehaz

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Has he really slipped defensively?

Malcolm would look really nice next to Smart in the backcourt. A Smart/Brogdon/Brown/Tatum/Horford starting 5 could certainly move the ball around offensively.
 

Cellar-Door

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Has he really slipped defensively?

Malcolm would look really nice next to Smart in the backcourt. A Smart/Brogdon/Brown/Tatum/Horford starting 5 could certainly move the ball around offensively.
He's graded out pretty poorly the last 2 years for a guy with a decent rep. He's not a terrible defender, but somewhere in the league average or below category probably?

Pacers' fans seem to be torn on him as a defender, but they mostly seem to agree he's better against wings than PGs and that he lacks lateral quickness.

I definitely don't see any reason to have him as the 2. I'd much rather take the defensive hit and have a better offensive player like Fournier.
 

radsoxfan

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Hot take....
Smart on his contract is better than Brogdon on his
I don't think that's too hot. 1/14 for Smart, 2/43 for Brogdon.

Agree with others they probably have similar on court value, they just get there a different way. I think those much higher on Brogdon don't realize how big the gap is on D.

I would be fine with Brogdon on the Celtics in the right situation, but not sure there is a good match.
 

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BigSoxFan

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I don't think that's too hot. 1/14 for Smart, 2/43 for Brogdon.

Agree with others they probably have similar on court value, they just get there a different way. I think those much higher on Brogdon don't realize how big the gap is on D.

I would be fine with Brogdon on the Celtics in the right situation, but not sure there is a good match.
The right situation was 2 years ago :(
 

lovegtm

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Yeah, I'd rather go big (or medium) game hunting than make a lateral move for Brogdon. I'm just not convinced that the current version of him would be an upgrade on Fournier (who is also the same age--Brogdon came into the league really late).
 

SteveF

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My hope is they manage to make it through this offseason without signing a player they will have to staple a first round to to unload in 1 or 2 years.

If they resign Fournier and have to include a first round pick to get rid of him in 2 years I'll lose my fucking mind.
 

nighthob

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My hope is they manage to make it through this offseason without signing a player they will have to staple a first round to to unload in 1 or 2 years.

If they resign Fournier and have to include a first round pick to get rid of him in 2 years I'll lose my fucking mind.
Their best case scenario is that a present contender with picks and no cap space wants Fournier. Their second best case scenario is that Fournier signs a team friendly deal to be salary ballast for a Beal deal.
 

Cellar-Door

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Their best case scenario is that a present contender with picks and no cap space wants Fournier. Their second best case scenario is that Fournier signs a team friendly deal to be salary ballast for a Beal deal.
I don't agree with this at all.
Their best case scenario is Fournier signs a team friendly deal and continues to be an elite shooter.
I don't think the Celtics are at all better off with some marginal pick over Fournier, especially if they are taking back salary match in bad players.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't agree with this at all.
Their best case scenario is Fournier signs a team friendly deal and continues to be an elite shooter.
I don't think the Celtics are at all better off with some marginal pick over Fournier, especially if they are taking back salary match in bad players.
When you say “team friendly” do you mean he isn’t going to test the market in search of his full value, take a discount to stay in Boston, or that no other significant offers will be presented to him? To me, it seems the only way he remains in Boston is if is the latter. Otherwise, this is Fournier’s final big contact and with no ties to the city of Boston I expect him to be looking for one final big cash!!
 

nighthob

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I don't agree with this at all.
Their best case scenario is Fournier signs a team friendly deal and continues to be an elite shooter.
I don't think the Celtics are at all better off with some marginal pick over Fournier, especially if they are taking back salary match in bad players.
I suspect that the bidding on Fournier is going to get a little too rich for Boston’s blood. So their best case is that a team that doesn’t have the space and needs to send out a mediocre deal to make a sign & trade work really wants Fournier and needs to overpay to get him.

Aside from that when some middling team with cap space comes calling with a 4 year deal averaging over $20 million per he probably walks and Boston gets nothing.
 

scottyno

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When you say “team friendly” do you mean he isn’t going to test the market in search of his full value, take a discount to stay in Boston, or that no other significant offers will be presented to him? To me, it seems the only way he remains in Boston is if is the latter. Otherwise, this is Fournier’s final big contact and with no ties to the city of Boston I expect him to be looking for one final big cash!!
Team friendly to the Cs is all about the years, not the dollars. If they can get him to take an overpriced 1 or 2 year deal that's a huge win for the Cs, and sets them up to have a max slot open when Al and Evan come off the books if they haven't found a max slot guy in a trade by then.

If he takes 1-25+, 2-50, or maybe even 2-55 there's a pretty good chance he ends up making more money overall than if he signs a 3 or 4 year deal somewhere else, he's only 28
 

Eddie Jurak

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When you say “team friendly” do you mean he isn’t going to test the market in search of his full value, take a discount to stay in Boston, or that no other significant offers will be presented to him? To me, it seems the only way he remains in Boston is if is the latter. Otherwise, this is Fournier’s final big contact and with no ties to the city of Boston I expect him to be looking for one final big cash!!
Can't speak to the OP intent, but I would hope that the Celtics have a number (or 2 numbers, dollar figure and term) in mind for Fournier, and if he gets a bigger offer than that then they let him walk. What is the free agent market for SGs like?
 

Cellar-Door

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When you say “team friendly” do you mean he isn’t going to test the market in search of his full value, take a discount to stay in Boston, or that no other significant offers will be presented to him? To me, it seems the only way he remains in Boston is if is the latter. Otherwise, this is Fournier’s final big contact and with no ties to the city of Boston I expect him to be looking for one final big cash!!
Team friendly was probably the wrong term. I meant it in the sense of... the best case by far with Fournier is that he wants to be on a playoff team and liked it here, so you sign him to a reasonable deal that is either short and higher dollar or longer but reasonable AAV and he plays well which helps you win, and opens him up as a trade asset. That's much much better than any other Fournier option I can see because any other option likely makes your team worse for the next few years

I suspect that the bidding on Fournier is going to get a little too rich for Boston’s blood. So their best case is that a team that doesn’t have the space and needs to send out a mediocre deal to make a sign & trade work really wants Fournier and needs to overpay to get him.

Aside from that when some middling team with cap space comes calling with a 4 year deal averaging over $20 million per he probably walks and Boston gets nothing.
I guess my issue with this beyond the assumption that it's better to save money than have a better team, is that I don't see the trade that makes much sense... is it a bad player and a bad pick for Fournier... meh. To me the question is... who is this team that doesn't have cap space, but Fournier really wants to join, that we want what they have? That type of S&T is incredibly rare, only recent one was the Butler deal, a very complex 4 team deal. At a point you're almost better off paying a 2nd to turn Fournier into another TPE.
 

nighthob

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Fournier is going to go where the money is. You need to accept that. This free agent class is horrific, so bad that Fournier is near the top of it. He’s getting paid this summer. And my guess is that the price is going to be so high that Boston declines to lock themselves in to Fournier as the third star, And if the choices are several firsts or nothing, I’m going with the first.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Fournier is going to go where the money is. You need to accept that. This free agent class is horrific, so bad that Fournier is near the top of it. He’s getting paid this summer. And my guess is that the price is going to be so high that Boston declines to lock themselves in to Fournier as the third star, And if the choices are several firsts or nothing, I’m going with the first.
No one is going to give up "several firsts" for Fournier. The Celtics only gave up 2 seconds to get him at the deadline, and if there was any over-the-cap team that wanted the opportunity to sign him long-term that badly they would have just beat the Celtics' offer at that point in time.
 

EL Jeffe

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This is my worry with Fournier. With some of the recent high profile FA departures, and Boston using a big chunk of their GH trade exception to land Fournier, I'm really hoping the team doesn't feel pressured to over-extend itself to keep him. The risk of Fournier turning into a sunk cost is very real. He's coming off a 5/$85m deal--it's not hard to envision some team with cap space throwing that type of contract at him for the sake of using their space (which teams do all the time). He's a complimentary player who's probably going to get paid like a legit #3 piece.
 

nighthob

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No one is going to give up "several firsts" for Fournier. The Celtics only gave up 2 seconds to get him at the deadline, and if there was any over-the-cap team that wanted the opportunity to sign him long-term that badly they would have just beat the Celtics' offer at that point in time.
Unless they had an $18 million TPE they couldn’t have beat Boston’s offer without using underperforming contracts and firsts. Part of the appeal for the Magic was not having to take salaries in return.
 

Cellar-Door

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Fournier is going to go where the money is. You need to accept that. This free agent class is horrific, so bad that Fournier is near the top of it. He’s getting paid this summer. And my guess is that the price is going to be so high that Boston declines to lock themselves in to Fournier as the third star, And if the choices are several firsts or nothing, I’m going with the first.
Except there isn't really a precedent for that. You might get a heavily protected 1st that becomes 2nds if you also take back a bad contract.. that has no value to me.

There is really only 1 player who sign and traded in recent years to a team that had no cap room, and it was a no doubt max guy, he fetched a mediocre player on an ok deal, they also paid a 1st to get other teams to eat bad salary.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Fournier is going to go where the money is. You need to accept that. This free agent class is horrific, so bad that Fournier is near the top of it. He’s getting paid this summer. And my guess is that the price is going to be so high that Boston declines to lock themselves in to Fournier as the third star, And if the choices are several firsts or nothing, I’m going with the first.
Yeah the talk of next years rotations that include Fournier (and others) seems like a waste of time to me. I never expected him to be a long term player here rather one for Ainge to acquire as he had to do “something” at the deadline.
 

benhogan

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Yeah the talk of next years rotations that include Fournier (and others) seems like a waste of time to me. I never expected him to be a long term player here rather one for Ainge to acquire as he had to do “something” at the deadline.
if they don't bring back Fournier, does it make it more likely they move Horford at the trade deadline (for an expiring) and make it an official Bridge season? That potentially opens up a max deal next summer.

Also can decide on Smart/TL next summer.
 

ehaz

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I don’t mind overpaying Fournier a bit. Obviously there’s a point where the dollars and years get too high, but where are you going to find a replacement 40%+ 3P shooter with high volume? He’s still only 28, and I don’t think there’s much of a risk he plays so poorly that the contract becomes an albatross. When he was healthy, he fit in quite well as a complement to the Jays and the contract should remain useful for salary matching purposes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don’t mind overpaying Fournier a bit. Obviously there’s a point where the dollars and years get too high, but where are you going to find a replacement 40%+ 3P shooter with high volume? He’s still only 28, and I don’t think there’s much of a risk he plays so poorly that the contract becomes an albatross. When he was healthy, he fit in quite well as a complement to the Jays and the contract should remain useful for salary matching purposes.
I don’t see any reason why he won’t be offered max years so the question becomes about dollars. If I had to take a guess I’d say he gets $90-100m over 4 somewhere as there will be money out there to spend.
 

Jimbodandy

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I don’t see any reason why he won’t be offered max years so the question becomes about dollars. If I had to take a guess I’d say he gets $90-100m over 4 somewhere as there will be money out there to spend.
Do people think that Fournier is an albatross contract at 4x22.5? I'd do that?
 

shoelace

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I don’t see any reason why he won’t be offered max years so the question becomes about dollars. If I had to take a guess I’d say he gets $90-100m over 4 somewhere as there will be money out there to spend.
Joe Harris got 4 years $75,000,000 last offseason after his age 28 season. I guess I always had that in mind as the range Fournier would fall into. I have no idea, I'm not the best at reading the free agent market, but I feel like the onus is on the posters saying he's going to get a $100,000,000 deal to point to the team with cap space that is going to make that kind of offer. It's hard for me to imagine Fournier pulling down $25,000,000 annually, unless he signs like a 2-3 year deal (or a 2+1).
 

JakeRae

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Do people think that Fournier is an albatross contract at 4x22.5? I'd do that?
Yes. Fournier is a slightly better than MLE-level player. He’s also the type of guy that an over the cap contender should pay extra for, so something in the range of 4/60 isn’t crazy. If he’s getting offers above his current deal, I think it’s hard to justify keeping him. At that point we are potentially better off using the Hayward TPE to offer Caruso (picked because people seem to see him as likely to get the full MLE, he’d fit well, and I think he very well might be a better all around player than Fournier, but you could sub in someone else you feel this way about) a sign and trade for just over the full MLE (using the remaining Hayward TPE) and hard capping ourselves. We could do that, trade Thompson into space, and sign a full MLE player and probably end up with more talent at a better price than dramatically overpaying for Fournier.
 

slamminsammya

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No one is going to give up "several firsts" for Fournier. The Celtics only gave up 2 seconds to get him at the deadline, and if there was any over-the-cap team that wanted the opportunity to sign him long-term that badly they would have just beat the Celtics' offer at that point in time.
This is true but its not really helpful to compare what they gave up at the deadline. The Celtics were trading for bird rights + a few months of Fournier, which is heavily discounted compared to several years of him.
 

pjheff

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Do people think that Fournier is an albatross contract at 4x22.5? I'd do that?
It’s not the dollars; it’s the years, as they would make it difficult to clear cap space in this summer of 2023. I’d give Fournier that number in a three year (two guaranteed with a team option) deal, but no more.
 

EL Jeffe

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Pretty much all of Fournier's value is tied to his scoring. He's a career 45/38/80 shooter, which is certainly good but not elite. He's a really bad rebounder for a wing; a career average of 3.5 rebounds/36 minutes for a 6'7 wing is just...yeah. He's not much of a facilitator either, with 3.4 assists/36 minutes. With Kemba gone, they're going to need a secondary facilitator; maybe Al helps some there but that's not really ideal. And of course defensively, we've all been treated to the Evan Fournier Experience. Like JakeRae, I see Fournier as an MLE+ type of player, but one who will undoubtedly get paid much more. Ideally, Nesmith will provide all the scoring/spacing Fournier would, but with the added value of (hopefully) better defense and for waaaay less money. But I also understand that would be putting a lot of eggs in an unproven basket.
 

DJnVa

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My hope is they manage to make it through this offseason without signing a player they will have to staple a first round to to unload in 1 or 2 years.

If they resign Fournier and have to include a first round pick to get rid of him in 2 years I'll lose my fucking mind.
Fournier isn't getting longer than 2 years, so you'll be okay.
 

Cellar-Door

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It’s not the dollars; it’s the years, as they would make it difficult to clear cap space in this summer of 2023. I’d give Fournier that number in a three year (two guaranteed with a team option) deal, but no more.
The clearing cap space for 2023 is a pipedream. I don't think the Celtics have any intention of gutting the roster down to nothing to open space. They almost certainly plan to operate above the cap every year. I have yet to see a good argument for why letting Fournier walk, letting Smart walk, letting TL walk, declining most of the rookie deal guys' option all to sign a guy (likely an aging star) in 2 years makes any sense at all. You waste more than half of the current deals of your stars that way.
 

EL Jeffe

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This board seems to have a history of undervaluing outgoing free agents:
Horford, Hayward, and Rozier all got much bigger deals than this board thought. I expect it will be the same for Fournier.
I think everyone agrees Fournier is getting paid. A lot. The question is if you want Boston to be the team writing those checks.

Those three deals tell a pretty good story, though. Philadelphia almost immediately regretted the Horford contract. Hayward showed exactly the level of durability everyone expected. Think Charlotte feels good about paying him about $30mil/yr the next three years? Rozier was moved to accommodate the Kemba signing.