Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

Light-Tower-Power

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As much as we want to be out of Kenna’s contract, there are ways of making it far worse. Porzingas would be far worse.
Agree. I'd much rather they try to unload Kemba for Horford. He was fine with OKC and would likely be fine playing 20-25 minutes a night at the 5 for us. I think he has more in the tank in the right system than he showed in Philly. Of course, I'm of the unload Kemba at all costs mindset.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yup, this is true but this team has gotten appreciably worse now in three consecutive years so at this point I prefer to be a little hamstrung for 3 more (Porz) than a lot hamstrung (Kemba) for 2.

Obviously any knee related crystal balls (...paging radsox... :) ) would tip the scales towards whomever is likely to be healthy, but I'd vastly prefer intermittent contributions from a stretch big than my primary ball handler who also puts everyone on their heels on D
Why extend mediocrity just because it's slightly better mediocrity? They should be trying to clear any bad salaries asap, not extend them.
 

128

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Agree. I'd much rather they try to unload Kemba for Horford. He was fine with OKC and would likely be fine playing 20-25 minutes a night at the 5 for us. I think he has more in the tank in the right system than he showed in Philly. Of course, I'm of the unload Kemba at all costs mindset.
It's not like Horford put much wear and tear on his body this season. He's older than when he was last in Boston, but he hasn't played a ton of minutes since then.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Also.... even when he's been on the floor he's been.... not great. His defense is nowhere near what it was, he's not a real rim protector now, he's just a tall skinny guy. He can catch and shoot, he can catch and dunk, but nothing else really, KOC had a stat about him having the worst FG% in the league off 2+ dribbles.
Well, at least KP wouldn't asked to do much dribbling on the Cs.

I haven't watched him at all, how unplayable is KP on defense? I mean if he's just a better-shooting but worse defensive version than the Green Kornet, I guess I'd pass too.
 

the moops

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People are severely underrating Porzingis. Yes, there is the injury concerns, but even in his down year, he put per 36 - 24 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and shot 38% from three.

So no, he is not just a better shooting but worse defender than Kornet (who shouldn't be more than any teams emergency big)
 

luckiestman

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People are severely underrating Porzingis. Yes, there is the injury concerns, but even in his down year, he put per 36 - 24 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and shot 38% from three.

So no, he is not just a better shooting but worse defender than Kornet (who shouldn't be more than any teams emergency big)
He’s a bad contract for longer than Kemba is a bad contract, seems easy not to want him
 

Gash Prex

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And I don't think anybody is too worried about the regular season - the concern is about what it looks like in the playoffs.
 

Cellar-Door

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People are severely underrating Porzingis. Yes, there is the injury concerns, but even in his down year, he put per 36 - 24 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and shot 38% from three.

So no, he is not just a better shooting but worse defender than Kornet (who shouldn't be more than any teams emergency big)
I mean... Kemba put up 21.8/4.5/5.6 1.3 STL per 36 on the same usage in the same number of games.
The point isn't that Porzingis is terrible, it's that he's not better than Kemba, has at least as much reason to be concerned about Kristaps going forward as Kemba, and he has an extra year on his bad contract.
 

Cellar-Door

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Well, at least KP wouldn't asked to do much dribbling on the Cs.

I haven't watched him at all, how unplayable is KP on defense? I mean if he's just a better-shooting but worse defensive version than the Green Kornet, I guess I'd pass too.
Yeah, see one of the problems with KP is... the Mavs don't ask him to dribble... in fact they would love him not to. He just doesn't accept his role.
He's not unplayable on defense. He's averagish most of the time, but pretty bad in many matchups. I'd say he's.... TT level?
KP isn't terrible... he's basically what Kemba is. A guy who isn't performing like a max player, and whose body is falling apart.
 

nighthob

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I’d much rather that they try and pick up Markkanen on the cheap as a stretch bench big. He can be at least as bad defensively for a lot less money.
 

sezwho

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Why extend mediocrity just because it's slightly better mediocrity? They should be trying to clear any bad salaries asap, not extend them.
Sure, thats completely coherent as well.

My belief is the sustained roster sacrifice of future for present (flexibility, pick hoarding/young player roster clogging/unbalanced positions/luxury cap dodging/etc) needs to reverse ASAP.

The riskreward trade off with Zinger makes more sense to me for multiple reasons, primarily their relative upsides and that his position is easier to ‘funge’ around.
 

bigq

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I’d much rather that they try and pick up Markkanen on the cheap as a stretch bench big. He can be at least as bad defensively for a lot less money.
Sounds like are describing Lauri Markkanen, though not as skinny as KP. I'm curious what kind of offers Lauri gets this offseason. Apparently, Chicago doesn't want to re-sign him. Lauri is also 2 years younger, doesn't have the injury history and will probably sign for significantly less.
Two votes for Markkanen. I hope Stevens is listening.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Two votes for Markkanen. I hope Stevens is listening.
He's not really an option unless the C's move Kemba. He was considered the best shooter in his draft class though and just put together a .400 season on good volume as a 7 footer. Kinda soft. I still think he'd be a really good fit on the C's at the right price.

I'm guessing he gets around 4/70-80 but who knows.
 

67YAZ

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He's not really an option unless the C's move Kemba. He was considered the best shooter in his draft class though and just put together a .400 season on good volume as a 7 footer. Kinda soft. I still think he'd be a really good fit on the C's at the right price.

I'm guessing he gets around 4/70-80 but who knows.
Living in Chicago, I see a lot of Bulls. Markkanen is very soft, plays much smaller than his size on both ends of the floor. His FG% were up across the board this year, but on fewer attempts than any other season. You have to protect him on defense, which will screw up a switch-heavy system. He also doesn't provide rebounding or rim protection, so you'd want a rim-running big next to him. He does move the ball well and provides a big body on screens, though again he's doesn't plant a hard pick.

Someone will be woo'd by the untapped stretch big potential and throw cap space at him, but you really need to believe that there's more there than Billy Donovan has been able to cultivate this year.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm pretty terrified of Kristap's knee, and his deal runs one year longer. The Celtics can be out of Kemba next summer for a not-huge asset in the worst casee.
We just wanted 7 games of Kristaps. He was Batum with a higher usage. Same years maybe let's talk. Extra year, it's a downgrade.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Living in Chicago, I see a lot of Bulls. Markkanen is very soft, plays much smaller than his size on both ends of the floor. His FG% were up across the board this year, but on fewer attempts than any other season. You have to protect him on defense, which will screw up a switch-heavy system. He also doesn't provide rebounding or rim protection, so you'd want a rim-running big next to him. He does move the ball well and provides a big body on screens, though again he's doesn't plant a hard pick.

Someone will be woo'd by the untapped stretch big potential and throw cap space at him, but you really need to believe that there's more there than Billy Donovan has been able to cultivate this year.
Sounds like you are saying TL would be a good fit next to him defensively? Lauri definitely works in our offense, anyway. He'd work in anyone's offense, really. It only takes on team to overpay him though.

It looks like he has some pretty good shot selection too.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I'd rather use the MLE on Bjelica, who is a better passer and has an otherwise similar skillset. Sure it's conceivable Markkanen has untapped upside but it is imo more likely he's a higher-asset cost and possibly inferior version.
 

67YAZ

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Sounds like you are saying TL would be a good fit next to him defensively? Lauri definitely works in our offense, anyway. He'd work in anyone's offense, really. It only takes on team to overpay him though.

It looks like he has some pretty good shot selection too.
Yeah, but it scary to think about what Smart would do to Lauri in practices.

This isn't the Foreman/Paxton Bulls anymore. Karnisovas valued Markkanen much lower than what Lauri asked for last summer, and when Vucevic was brought in, Donovan immediately shunted Markkanen to the bench. Bulls' brass don't see Markkanen as a foundational piece - a 7-foot, 40% shooting 23 year old - which should be a red flag. But they'll surely match any low-ball offer sheet, if that's what Markkanen ends up getting.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Sure, thats completely coherent as well.

My belief is the sustained roster sacrifice of future for present (flexibility, pick hoarding/young player roster clogging/unbalanced positions/luxury cap dodging/etc) needs to reverse ASAP.

The risk-reward trade off with Zinger makes more sense to me for multiple reasons, primarily their relative upsides and that his position is easier to ‘funge’ around.
It's interesting you use the word "sacrifice." In some sense, BOS has been taking a gamble that either or both of AN / RL will end up being better than anyone they are signing off the street. The crap shoot of trying to play that roulette game of figuring out which one or two vets are going to be able to fit in both on and off the court.

Yeah, see one of the problems with KP is... the Mavs don't ask him to dribble... in fact they would love him not to. He just doesn't accept his role.
He's not unplayable on defense. He's averagish most of the time, but pretty bad in many matchups. I'd say he's.... TT level?
KP isn't terrible... he's basically what Kemba is. A guy who isn't performing like a max player, and whose body is falling apart.
Appreciate your thoughts on KP.
 

Cellar-Door

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Zach Lowe had Bobby Marks and Seth Partnow on. At the end of the pod they talked about KP, and trade options (Kemba was mentioned). Seemed like they felt DAL keeps him at least a year.
Lowe pointed out that before this year he was better as a rim protector, but he was so bad this year they moved him to 4 where he doesn't do much for you, thinks DAL keeps him to see if he's more mobile next year and can play C.

To give you an overview of his trade value, here were the proposals for possible trades:
To SA for absolutely nothing.
To Bos for Kemba
to OKC for nothing and/or Horford
to CLE for Love.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's interesting you use the word "sacrifice." In some sense, BOS has been taking a gamble that either or both of AN / RL will end up being better than anyone they are signing off the street. The crap shoot of trying to play that roulette game of figuring out which one or two vets are going to be able to fit in both on and off the court.
A lot of this is because neither one really had much trade value at all. Nesmith maybe have build some up at the end of the season. Langford too, probably.

Basically, trading either of them would have been trading extremely low.

I'm really high on Nesmith and I'm normally pretty reserved on young players. I think he's more of a better Otto Porter than Middleton though. Probably score and rebound a bit more than Porter but play slightly worse D. I'm talking prime Otto Porter too. Not today's Otto Porter.

Not so high on Langford but I see his ceiling.

Once they were drafted, holding on to both was the correct move. Trading the picks is another matter. It's an interesting position because of Tatum and Brown's youth. A lot of times, the teams competing are on the older side so picking a guy who will be ready in 3 or 4 years is wasting a player's prime. In the C's case, the 2 stars aren't even in their prime yet so you aren't really wasting 3 years. You are investing into a better future so to speak, at least if one of the picks works out. These would be players developing alongside the Jays.
 

teddykgb

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The other thing to consider is that a new coach will potentially bring a new system on offense and defense. It’s hard to imagine Stevens selecting a coach who does things completely differently but the fit of the roster, particularly the back end, might need to be very different with a new coach versus Stevens as coach. We know that Horford was a great fit for the Stevens coaches teams because he could shoot as a 5 and was pretty good at their switch heavy style. He’s just an example but I hope they can try to identify the coach quickly so they can try to maneuver for players who will fit what that coach wants to do. One of the more difficult things of the Stevens/Ainge combo may be that Ainge preserving assets and treating his assets as commodities at times left Stevens with some relatively poor fits for his system. I wonder whether Stevens will be sensitive to this or whether he thinks it’s a complete non issue
 

nighthob

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Living in Chicago, I see a lot of Bulls. Markkanen is very soft, plays much smaller than his size on both ends of the floor. His FG% were up across the board this year, but on fewer attempts than any other season. You have to protect him on defense, which will screw up a switch-heavy system. He also doesn't provide rebounding or rim protection, so you'd want a rim-running big next to him. He does move the ball well and provides a big body on screens, though again he's doesn't plant a hard pick.

Someone will be woo'd by the untapped stretch big potential and throw cap space at him, but you really need to believe that there's more there than Billy Donovan has been able to cultivate this year.
Markkanen is strictly a depth player. Any GM signing him to start (and paying starter appropriate money) will be collecting unemployment in the near future.
 

lovegtm

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People are severely underrating Porzingis. Yes, there is the injury concerns, but even in his down year, he put per 36 - 24 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and shot 38% from three.
People are severely underrating Kemba. Yes, there are the injury concerns, but even in his down year, he put per 36 - 22 points, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and shot 36% from three.

(They both kinda suck currently, particularly in high intensity/gameplanning environments like the playoffs.)
 

HomeRunBaker

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People are severely underrating Kemba. Yes, there are the injury concerns, but even in his down year, he put per 36 - 22 points, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and shot 36% from three.

(They both kinda suck currently, particularly in high intensity/gameplanning environments like the playoffs.)
I would much prefer a big who is still relatively young to Kemba at his age with his injuries. Those numbers aren’t likely to ever be reached again and similar to how I felt about Isaiah, I expect him to be out of the league in 2-3 years.
 

lovegtm

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I would much prefer a big who is still relatively young to Kemba at his age with his injuries. Those numbers aren’t likely to ever be reached again and similar to how I felt about Isaiah, I expect him to be out of the league in 2-3 years.
I'm super-low on Kemba. It was a parody of the moops post on Porzingis, quoted in my post ;)
 

nighthob

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I would much prefer a big who is still relatively young to Kemba at his age with his injuries. Those numbers aren’t likely to ever be reached again and similar to how I felt about Isaiah, I expect him to be out of the league in 2-3 years.
Your wish is, apparently, Boston's command as they're working out NAIA player E.J. Onu. A 6'11" marshwiggle (he reminds me of Perkins with those arms and legs). It looks like he can shoot, though.

Here's his highlight reel, as you can guess with his dimensions lots of blocks, dunks, and alley-oops.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gPQKP4g7Xo
 
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Guys like him always look great on the highlight reels, but as a casual fan I have no way of projecting how that translates to an NBA-level of competition.

Do most mocks have him going somewhere in the second round?

Seems like he would be a step up from Tacko at least.
 

Fishy1

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Id imagine the Celtics two year plan is do their best to get out from underneath the Kemba contract while also trying to get a big, aiming in the end to grab Brad Beal when his contract comes up. Horford is a good example, of course, and would give the Celtics the stretch big they wanted, but I think the Celtics would first try to move Kemba for some smaller, more reasonable contracts. Horford would give them a hell of a lot of depth at the 5, a place where they sorely need it while they try to figure out if TL is ever gonna figure out his durability problem.

But guards of Beal's quality have also gone for relatively small chunks of change when ownership decided they weren't likely to resign the player, and as much as Beal talks about wanting to stay, I'd bet when the chips are down he moves on - that's often how it goes. Guy says he wants to stay, six months later he's on the move. Whether the Wizards see that is an open question. They don't seem to see that their defense is abysmal year after year, so no guarantees they realize this is their last chance to get some picks for him.

I wonder if Kemba plus a couple of picks or lotto tickets gets it done if Beal let's the ownership group know he's likely to leave. It took IT plus a pick, Jae Crowder, and Zizic to get Kyrie. About the same to get Mike Conley. Much more if the contract was longer: Houston got an insane haul for Harden.

The goal of course is to maximize Kemba's trade value. Horford doesn't do that. Rebuilding teams with huge contracts that are rapidly depreciating, who are also desperate for picks, are the best way to do that. There aren't many teams other than the Wizards in that position. Maybe GSW, but I bet they think they're resigning Steph all the way.
 

DJnVa

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TripleOT

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Onu is an intriguing prospect as a rim runner who can move his feet well, and can shoot the three. If he were coming out of a big time college, teams would be drooling over him.

The level of competition he faced in NAIA was poor, but hitting open threes at 40% on decent volume at his height and length is impressive, regardless of where it was accomplished

Here’s a good look at Onu

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/05/ej-onu-2021-nba-draft-prospect-profile/
 

HomeRunBaker

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Guys like him always look great on the highlight reels, but as a casual fan I have no way of projecting how that translates to an NBA-level of competition.

Do most mocks have him going somewhere in the second round?

Seems like he would be a step up from Tacko at least.
It doesn’t even necessarily need to be a “step up” from Tacko.....only a prospect to replace him now that he’s had a couple years with no growth as a player. That’s what those backend slots are for.....keep churning raw talent and hopefully end up with a contributor one day.
 

gammoseditor

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It doesn’t even necessarily need to be a “step up” from Tacko.....only a prospect to replace him now that he’s had a couple years with no growth as a player. That’s what those backend slots are for.....keep churning raw talent and hopefully end up with a contributor one day.
No growth? Tacko is significantly better than he was two years ago. Problem is he still stinks.
 

gammoseditor

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Is he better? He couldn’t get on the floor then and he can’t now nor is he any closer. I’m referring to growth that can be utilized.
Yeah I think he’s gotten way better and it was apparent when he was forced into action against Washington this year. I don’t think he could have done that 2 years ago. I think we largely agree on his ability now and if he were released it wouldn’t be shocking, but I felt saying he’s shown no growth is pretty far off.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah I think he’s gotten way better and it was apparent when he was forced into action against Washington this year. I don’t think he could have done that 2 years ago. I think we largely agree on his ability now and if he were released it wouldn’t be shocking, but I felt saying he’s shown no growth is pretty far off.
Agree to disagree. I was thinking he actually looked worse in his movements and can’t defend the perimeter all. He’s not an NBA player so any debate about growth isn’t moving my needle.
 

pjheff

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Id imagine the Celtics two year plan is do their best to get out from underneath the Kemba contract while also trying to get a big, aiming in the end to grab Brad Beal when his contract comes up. Horford is a good example, of course, and would give the Celtics the stretch big they wanted, but I think the Celtics would first try to move Kemba for some smaller, more reasonable contracts. Horford would give them a hell of a lot of depth at the 5, a place where they sorely need it while they try to figure out if TL is ever gonna figure out his durability problem.

But guards of Beal's quality have also gone for relatively small chunks of change when ownership decided they weren't likely to resign the player, and as much as Beal talks about wanting to stay, I'd bet when the chips are down he moves on - that's often how it goes. Guy says he wants to stay, six months later he's on the move. Whether the Wizards see that is an open question. They don't seem to see that their defense is abysmal year after year, so no guarantees they realize this is their last chance to get some picks for him.

I wonder if Kemba plus a couple of picks or lotto tickets gets it done if Beal let's the ownership group know he's likely to leave. It took IT plus a pick, Jae Crowder, and Zizic to get Kyrie. About the same to get Mike Conley. Much more if the contract was longer: Houston got an insane haul for Harden.

The goal of course is to maximize Kemba's trade value. Horford doesn't do that. Rebuilding teams with huge contracts that are rapidly depreciating, who are also desperate for picks, are the best way to do that. There aren't many teams other than the Wizards in that position. Maybe GSW, but I bet they think they're resigning Steph all the way.
I‘d like to think that Brad has a two-year plan, and it should begin with his version of the Hippocratic oath: first, do no harm. In other words, the team can clear everyone off the books but for Tatum and Brown in two summers, and he shouldn’t harm that cap space unless he can get a whale. So even if you think that Porzingis might recover and be a better fit, he should not assume that risk if it brings with it a three-year commitment.

He should instead look first to move Kemba for an upgrade like Beal and be prepared to add significant value to try to acquire him now entering his age 28 season rather than two years from now at 30. Beal would obviously need to initiate and engineer the move.

If such a deal is not there to be had, then he should pivot and explore whether and how Kemba’s salary slot might be more productively spent in the next two years. Maybe that involves flipping him for some other team’s bad contract which might be a better fit in Boston (Kevin Love). Perhaps it means trading him to a capped out contender that’s a bit desperate for assets in exchange for some smaller contracts (Lakers, Clippers, etc.). It could even be a matter of trading him into another team’s cap space (Knicks) for a trade exception and the flexibility to make some other moves (NG) without paying the tax.

Or he might be best served by remaining patient, knowing that Walker’s contract will have less negative value next summer and the one following. I’d hate to see him use an asset to divest himself of that deal unless it’s a necessary step in an order of operations that could significantly improve the team’s chance of contention.
 

TheRooster

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Onu is an intriguing prospect as a rim runner who can move his feet well, and can shoot the three. If he were coming out of a big time college, teams would be drooling over him.

The level of competition he faced in NAIA was poor, but hitting open threes at 40% on decent volume at his height and length is impressive, regardless of where it was accomplished

Here’s a good look at Onu

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/05/ej-onu-2021-nba-draft-prospect-profile/
Odd that it mentions neither Thon Maker nor Bol Bol.
 

the moops

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He should instead look first to move Kemba for an upgrade like Beal and be prepared to add significant value to try to acquire him now entering his age 28 season rather than two years from now at 30. Beal would obviously need to initiate and engineer the move.

If such a deal is not there to be had
There is a deal to be had, if you include Jaylen Brown. Otherwise, no, Beal isn't coming here for Kemba + late firsts
 

Fishy1

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There is a deal to be had, if you include Jaylen Brown. Otherwise, no, Beal isn't coming here for Kemba + late firsts
Why would they have to include Jaylen? Jaylen is the one with three years left on his contract, as opposed to one and a player option that Beal will almost certainly not pick up. Jaylen might not be the caliber player Beal is yet, but his upside may be even better. In the end, they are players of very similar value, and one of them is on a longer contract than the other.The Celtics have no reason to move him, while the Wizards have plenty to move Beal.

The Wizards are running the risk of losing Beal for nothing in a year's time if they do not move him now or before the deadline. He's been on bad Wizards teams for years, and as much as he's played the good soldier, it's the rare guy these days that doesn't move on to greener pastures.

Other players of similar quality have gone for even less than Kemba plus the sixteenth pick.
 

Devizier

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I think there might be Kemba-fronted deals available next offseason but it's impossible to know how teams with "potentially available" stars will perform. Also:

1) how available those stars will be
2) to which teams they'll make themselves available.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Why would they have to include Jaylen? Jaylen is the one with three years left on his contract, as opposed to one and a player option that Beal will almost certainly not pick up. Jaylen might not be the caliber player Beal is yet, but his upside may be even better. In the end, they are players of very similar value, and one of them is on a longer contract than the other.The Celtics have no reason to move him, while the Wizards have plenty to move Beal.

The Wizards are running the risk of losing Beal for nothing in a year's time if they do not move him now or before the deadline. He's been on bad Wizards teams for years, and as much as he's played the good soldier, it's the rare guy these days that doesn't move on to greener pastures.

Other players of similar quality have gone for even less than Kemba plus the sixteenth pick.
In a vacuum I think you're right, but the problem is if Beal is made available there are likely to be more attractive offers out there. There are plenty of teams with better draft picks that might want Beal. If the Celtics start offering to throw in some of their younger players as well, it gets closer but then the question is does that make sense from the Celtics' point of view knowing there is no guarantee Beal signs here long-term.

Obviously the analysis is different if Beal pulls a Davis and basically lets it be known that the only trade partner he'd consider signing an extension with is Boston, but we're not close to that scenario yet.
 

PedroKsBambino

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James Harden fetched a lot more than a 2 year 73 million dollar injured point guard and the #16 pick. Come on now
Yeah, you can't just skip LeVert/Oladipo part of it especially since Houston both leading up to and at time of deal focused on need for a veteran proven "semi-star" type. That it didn't work out well doesn't change that every indication is Houston really did care about that part of the deal when it was made
 

nighthob

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10,200
In a vacuum I think you're right, but the problem is if Beal is made available there are likely to be more attractive offers out there. There are plenty of teams with better draft picks that might want Beal.
The question is is anyone making that gamble after what Kyrie did to the Celtics. Beal is a short timer, so he's only a rental at this point. By the trade deadline I doubt they get more than a first and filler for him.