Celtics Offseason 2024 - Wake Me Up When September Ends
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Good stuff from @AdamTaylorNBA . Given Queta's success as a help defender getting blocks out of nowhere, having his positioning right for base drop defense would certainly be nice, but I'd almost rather he gets his conditioning up so that he can play at that level more than 8-10 minutes a night.
The issue isn’t that Queta can’t play 8-10 mpg due to conditioning it is that teams either return their starting bigs to the game or adjust to exploit his footwork and inability to defend face-up triple-threat offensive players.
After 330 minutes last season, I'm not sure what Queta can/can't do.
He didn't kill the C's when he played against rotational BIGs during the middle of the season.
If he can drop & protect the rim on D, while setting picks + play with energy on O we'll be fine.
I'd venture to guess that he is the best 5th or 6th string Center in the NBA.
Business as usual for Brad, another cheap upside option for Boston.
Derrick White the last two seasons: 163 blocks
Tatum (94) and Jaylen (63) combined the last two seasons: 157 blocks
And I’d consider both Tatum and Jaylen good shot blockers for what they are asked to do on defense. White is just a freak of nature lol.
Tatum (94) and Jaylen (63) combined the last two seasons: 157 blocks
And I’d consider both Tatum and Jaylen good shot blockers for what they are asked to do on defense. White is just a freak of nature lol.
Only looking at last season would be blurry for sure but back when I was all-in on college basketball the Mountain West was one of my conferences that I capped. So I saw a ton of him at Utah State and know his game very well so watching him adapt, and make a pretty big leap this past season, gives me a good read on him.
For example, in college he was mechanical and slow-footed while vulnerable outside of the paint on both ends of the floor. He’s really worked hard on his agility but can still really be exposed defending face-up while offensively he still has limitations outside of the paint. The poor kid was born two decades too late…..if this were 2009 he would have Roy Hibbert upside and in that time Hibbert was a damn good NBA player pre-Curry.
Al Horford is a very easy man to root for. This must have been an unbelievable day for him.
View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzell/status/1834388567377752175
View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzell/status/1834388567377752175
NBA YouTube is in preseason now. Something to get you fired up, in however many 5-10 minute chunks you wish at any given time. So many amazing plays I'd forgotten about.
View: https://youtu.be/1JfScKzhAgM?si=DotSJJJ7W0AnaU1b
View: https://youtu.be/1JfScKzhAgM?si=DotSJJJ7W0AnaU1b
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Great stuff! I had semi-forgotten the decent leads Indiana couldn't hold onto. And while Indiana did make mistakes (esp Haliburton in game 1), the celts did too.
As CJM said "series should of gone 7"
Other stuff:
JB made some cool clear and collected shots in big moments.
JT made some grown man drives, and some big 3s
AL had some big rebounds
The combo of White/Jru was the "3rd scorer" the celts have needed the last several years.
This is a great watch.
It's funny that the Celtics had to continue to wear the "can't execute in the clutch" hat right up to the end, even as they were 4th in regular season clutch net rating and 1st in playoff clutch rating (with a combined 27-12 record in clutch time games). It was definitely a real thing in 2022 (26th in net rating and 10th in the playoffs, with a combined 20-27 record) and to a lesser extent in 2023 (8th in net rating and 11th in the playoffs, with a combined 29-19 record) but anyone still hitting them with that label this past year (especially in the playoffs when they had a full regular season in the books and were decimating all comers) either wanted to get a rise out of people or just wasn't paying attention.
there are big chunks of those crunch-time minutes where I just can't take my eyes off Jrue Holiday on either end of the court. The guy isn't playing out there, he's dancing. Every step is in sync with his partner (on D) or partners (on O). The slightest move by the other guy and his body responds fluidly, as if a reflex.
If there's a team sport that more visually resembles dancing than basketball does sometimes, I sure can't think of it.
If there's a team sport that more visually resembles dancing than basketball does sometimes, I sure can't think of it.
Watched the first game, ECF #1. What stands out is how little Tatum is really involved in the flow of the offense, especially late in regulation. It's running through JB and White primarily. Little things you notice watching for the umpteenth time. And that closing sequence in regulation by JB is still the iconic moment of the playoffs for me.
We must find this person and avenge Derrick.
View: https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1835772041942696138
View: https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1835772041942696138
Pretty tame for todays standards. I was dreading him taking a swing over the top and facing an assualt charge or a lawsuit that would drag into the season. Looks like besides jawing and Wanting to get into a guys face he didnt do anything bad. Who knows why the other guy swung....but I am (as I am sure most of us are) firmly in team White on this one.
I will say it looks like the entire group looks pretty hammered, including Derrick. Hoepfully a big nothing burger for everyone but the jerk who swung.
It does look like one blonde was pregnant and right in the middle. SMH.....people need to be smarter.
I will say it looks like the entire group looks pretty hammered, including Derrick. Hoepfully a big nothing burger for everyone but the jerk who swung.
It does look like one blonde was pregnant and right in the middle. SMH.....people need to be smarter.
Looks like Cs have signed another Exhibit 10 contract - this time to Dmytro Skapintsev, a 7 footer from Ukraine that was in the NYK organization until about a week ago.
Dmytro Skapintsev signs with Boston | HoopsHype
Dmytro Skapintsev signs with Boston | HoopsHype
DWhite would have been about my last guess for which Celtic got in a fight at a football game.
I'm sure they will waive him immediately as they did with Jordan Schakel the other day to get them assigned to Maine.
This is Jaylen’s punishment for the Nike comments lol
View: https://twitter.com/CelticsMuse/status/1836151087256015155
View: https://twitter.com/CelticsMuse/status/1836151087256015155
Schakel is reported to get a $77,500 bonus if he stays with ME for 60 days; I presume the Cs are doing the same with Skapintsev (and probably Walker too).
Apparently, Skapinstsev had one good game during summer league against BRK.
View: https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1813589455602626816?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1813589455602626816|twgr^c5e6e7492cccb651f319ded6cc5b7d34fdca1bda|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.postingandtoasting.com%2F2024%2F7%2F17%2F24200477%2Fhighlighting-dmytro-skapintsevs-impressive-performance
Maybe introducing 2-3 new uniforms a year sorta saps the old creative juices.
Almost all of them are horrendous. The Bulls uni is somehow worse than the Celtics one.
https://www.threads.net/@courtsidebuzzig/post/DACSRE4tnrU/?xmt=AQGzGoeDGMSS6fm78Fp19Ji6TNFn0zvTDu1Bm_CgljA-bw
The Philly one is awesome with the rainbow sides as a throwback to center court at the Spectrum. Other than that, it’s hard to find even mediocrity aside from maybe Utah.
Crazy what loads of talent and an innovator for a coach can do.
View: https://twitter.com/aop_nba/status/1836453664090685596
View: https://twitter.com/aop_nba/status/1836453664090685596
i'd be more interested to see that as a differential from a team's normal PPP. Because if the point we're supposed to take away from this is "the Celtics sure score a lot of points!", well, yeah. But they seem to be trying to make a point about coaching and play-calling, and that seems like a poor way to isolate the effect from the team's general average performance.
Agreed, the differential would be a "better" measure for TOs/DB stoppage effects.
Also would be nice to see how the Celtic's defense differential fared after stoppages.
That's definitely better than the one they came out with but still not great.
I don't know why they make teams do this every year. When a team lands on a good one (like the Wizards) just make it permanent
All numbers taken from pbpstats.com. They do their possessions counts differently so the numbers won't necessarily line up exactly with numbers at other places.
Celtics offense ATO: 123.1 (350 possessions, 431 points)
Celtics defense ATO: 107.9 (467 possessions, 504 points).
League ATO: 111.4 ( 12946 possessions, 14416 points)
Celtics offense after a deadball: 124.2 (714 possessions, 887 points)
Celtics defense after a deadball: 107.4 (744 possessions, 799 points).
League after a deadball: 111.5 (23659 possessions, 26387 points)
Celtics offense excluding after TO/Deadball: 123.2 (6957 possessions, 8569)
Celtics defense excluding after TO/Deadball: 112.7 (6792 possessions, 7654 points).
League excluding after TO/Deadball: 116.5 (206174 possessions, 240157 points)
Few points:
Celtics offense isn't appreciably better ATO/deadball (or worse, as might be the more salient way of describing things). There are a few ways to interpret that which I'll leave to others.
You'd expect deadball/ATO offense to be worse than offense excluding those because nearly all deadball/ATO are halfcourt possessions whereas the other possesions include transition.
Thanks for the data Steve! Yeah, I think the summary of that could be "The Celtics do ~5 points/100 better than the league does at maintaining their offense level coming out of a TO / Deadball, such that while everyone else has a ~5 point penalty to their numbers, the Celtics perform at almost exactly the same level whether it's in live action or not". How much of that is on the coaching vs the players, we'll never know, that's one of those unresolvable sports debates.
At the risk of sounding ungrateful, though, it sure would be nice to compare apples to apples and look at ATO/Deadball performance vs team or league halfcourt performance only (to Steve's own point). I know CleaningTheGlass has transition #s and halfcourt #s, but from kicking around at pbpstats, I can't find a way to get that there. But I can at least estimate the differential using CTG's numbers.
Offense PPP/100:
BOS 123.2
NBA 115.6
Halfcourt offense:
BOS: 106.5
NBA: 98.7
Transition offense:
BOS: 130.6
NBA: 127.3
(DEN: 119.6, 30th in league!)
Defensive equivalents are behind the paywall, but that should at least give an idea. We're clearly much, much better at halfcourt offense when we're coming ATO / Deadball than in the flow of play (123.1 vs 106.5, or +16.6, assuming these #s are comparable). But then again, so is the league (111.4 ATO/Deadball vs 98.7 halfcourt, +12.7), albeit to a lesser degree.
At the risk of sounding ungrateful, though, it sure would be nice to compare apples to apples and look at ATO/Deadball performance vs team or league halfcourt performance only (to Steve's own point). I know CleaningTheGlass has transition #s and halfcourt #s, but from kicking around at pbpstats, I can't find a way to get that there. But I can at least estimate the differential using CTG's numbers.
Offense PPP/100:
BOS 123.2
NBA 115.6
Halfcourt offense:
BOS: 106.5
NBA: 98.7
Transition offense:
BOS: 130.6
NBA: 127.3
(DEN: 119.6, 30th in league!)
Defensive equivalents are behind the paywall, but that should at least give an idea. We're clearly much, much better at halfcourt offense when we're coming ATO / Deadball than in the flow of play (123.1 vs 106.5, or +16.6, assuming these #s are comparable). But then again, so is the league (111.4 ATO/Deadball vs 98.7 halfcourt, +12.7), albeit to a lesser degree.
Appreciate the work Steve, thanks
Seems like their defense post-deadball is exceptional, but again they gather the halfcourt vs. transition benefits.
My biggest takeaway...this team was consistently good at everything last year
It may be fun to find those teams that had the greatest differential and see which HCs were "best/worst" at stoppages
One thought I had on that score was that transition offense is simply less variable from a skill perspective. You'd expect more variation in transition because of the smaller sample size as a statistical matter, but maybe there's more variation due to talent in the half court. Not that there's none in transition PPP, but maybe transition skill shows up more in frequency. (Of course, this is also heavily driven by defense/TOs -- so maybe viewing certain defensive skills as also offensive transition skills isn't completely appropriate in all/most/many contexts)
Obviously these are questions of fact that research could shed light on, but I'm not really the guy to do it.
Edit:
There's also the issue of defining transition, of course. Anyone who watches a basketball game knows there's sort of a sliding scale between half court and transition (hence some places tracking semi-transition) and all the definitional issues surrounding that.
You can think of potential transition opportunities in terms of time and location. How long is the liminal state between offense and defense (e.g. a shot being in the air vs a steal, a 3 point shot attempt vs a layup attempt, a make vs a miss). Where are the various players on the floor -- both in terms of floor balance, and who is where on the floor (e.g. Is your center down low trying to grab an offensive rebound, or is he above the 3 point circle and thus can get back quickly enough to protect the paint, did you just miss a shot at the rim, etc.).
Even something like having good perimeter defense that prevents dribble penetration can have a slightly negative impact on your own offensive transition frequency!
And of course coaching strategy goes into this. How hard are you crashing the offensive glass? (Hello Adrian Griffin)
Obviously these are questions of fact that research could shed light on, but I'm not really the guy to do it.
Edit:
There's also the issue of defining transition, of course. Anyone who watches a basketball game knows there's sort of a sliding scale between half court and transition (hence some places tracking semi-transition) and all the definitional issues surrounding that.
You can think of potential transition opportunities in terms of time and location. How long is the liminal state between offense and defense (e.g. a shot being in the air vs a steal, a 3 point shot attempt vs a layup attempt, a make vs a miss). Where are the various players on the floor -- both in terms of floor balance, and who is where on the floor (e.g. Is your center down low trying to grab an offensive rebound, or is he above the 3 point circle and thus can get back quickly enough to protect the paint, did you just miss a shot at the rim, etc.).
Even something like having good perimeter defense that prevents dribble penetration can have a slightly negative impact on your own offensive transition frequency!
And of course coaching strategy goes into this. How hard are you crashing the offensive glass? (Hello Adrian Griffin)
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I'd particularly like to see Brad's coaching ATO differential, compared to the league at the time, since he was so often talked about as the ATO god...Appreciate the work Steve, thanks
Seems like their defense post-deadball is exceptional, but again they gather the halfcourt vs. transition benefits.
My biggest takeaway...this team was consistently good at everything last year
It may be fun to find those teams that had the greatest differential and see which HCs were "best/worst" at stoppages
Pete Rogers has so many fantastic designs and Nike should hire him to design the Celtics jersey each year. I don't understand the tie to the city, region, or championship of this city-connect jersey. Now I'm sure a lot of Rogers' best jerseys couldn't work on a commercial level due to copyrights, but he's excellent he could figure it out.
But, like you say, why not stick with what works? In 2008-2009 we had the green with gold letters for winning the championship (my favorite), bring that one back, or something similar for Nike to put its stamp on it.
some good points Steve, and why things like DARKO (that use long-dated +/- On-Off) are so helpful
good points, i’d guess the variation is not related to sample size and due to both a combination of individual player skill but probably more importantly the transition context as you point out.
loose ball turnovers are going to generally be extremely efficient transition opportunities as opposed to running off a rebound, and causing such turnovers is one of the few things that is primarily controlled by the defense more than the offense. so i think the transition efficiency spread is largely explained by differing mix of live ball turnovers versus other types of transition opportunities.
The Celtics' rotations are pretty well set heading into the season.
A few things I'm keeping a casual eye on for future roster construction:
1. Extend Horford another season at $10M, gtd until 2026. Al's game is ageless & if handled with care (60 games/24mpg) can play 2 more productive seasons IMO. Wakefield contract would be nice.
2. If Springer shows up with a C&S 3pt stroke early in the season, a multi-year extension on the cheap (3/15).
3. Walker signs a Tillman multi-year minimum deal.
Even after winning Banner 19, this could be the final season of KP ($30.7) & Jrue ($32.4) with the new Ownership not wanting to pay massive taxes. Assume Brad moves their $$$ with no asset return/cost
2025-26 Crystal Ball
-Starters ($155M): Horford ($10), JT ($54), JB ($53), White ($28), Hauser ($10)
-Bench ($25M): PP ($7.2), Tillman ($2.5), Springer ($4.5), Walker ($2.5), Baylor ($2.6), Queta ($2.3), Walsh ($2.2)
Very rough estimated roster cost: $180M + a couple of mins/draft picks.
I believe that would get them under the $196M 1st Apron (Cap Wizards feel free to correct)
Sets up prime JAY seasons.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly
Start cutting Pat Riley checks with Three-Peat talk
A few things I'm keeping a casual eye on for future roster construction:
1. Extend Horford another season at $10M, gtd until 2026. Al's game is ageless & if handled with care (60 games/24mpg) can play 2 more productive seasons IMO. Wakefield contract would be nice.
2. If Springer shows up with a C&S 3pt stroke early in the season, a multi-year extension on the cheap (3/15).
3. Walker signs a Tillman multi-year minimum deal.
Even after winning Banner 19, this could be the final season of KP ($30.7) & Jrue ($32.4) with the new Ownership not wanting to pay massive taxes. Assume Brad moves their $$$ with no asset return/cost
2025-26 Crystal Ball
-Starters ($155M): Horford ($10), JT ($54), JB ($53), White ($28), Hauser ($10)
-Bench ($25M): PP ($7.2), Tillman ($2.5), Springer ($4.5), Walker ($2.5), Baylor ($2.6), Queta ($2.3), Walsh ($2.2)
Very rough estimated roster cost: $180M + a couple of mins/draft picks.
I believe that would get them under the $196M 1st Apron (Cap Wizards feel free to correct)
Sets up prime JAY seasons.
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly
Start cutting Pat Riley checks with Three-Peat talk
I don't think there's any way they get rid of 2 of the 6 starters at the same time. If they do need to dump, they'll dump 1 (agree that KP is likeliest), but it's also possible they dump "0.5" by trading KP for a less-costly replacement, either after next summer or during the 25-26 season. There's absolutely no need to trade Jrue, and I think he's much, much harder to replace as long as he's playing at his all-star level. But any discussion of turning over the centers needs to start with who Stevens might look at to replace them and what they might cost. Kornet and Tillman are useful depth pieces, but they are not starters on a championship roster. And even if we can't afford a $30M/yr Porzingis, we can (must) afford a $10-15M / yr Starting C To Be Named Later who can space the floor at least a little bit.
I do agree that if Al can go for 25-26 for another $10M, you thank the heavens for your good luck and trust to his preparation of his body for the season. But we also can't go in there with just Horford and Kornet as Plan A, IMO.
I'm guessing on the motivations of a new owner that just plunked down $5-6B on the Celtics.
While Brad has done a fantastic job extending everyone he can on reasonable deals, I'm having a hard time seeing new ownership spending $445M in total salary (2025-26 $220M est. tax bill) a year after spending $65M in taxes (2024-25 estimate).
Keeping Jrue and a $15M replacement for KP is still going to be pricey.
Dumping money during the season is incredibly difficult, so I've kind of resigned myself to major changes next summer.
I hope I'm wrong, with the new owners committed to raining $200M of tax money on our heads next season.
Let’s not forget the timing of the sale will pretty much coincide with expansion and the owners getting about a $400m check in one fell swoop.
Edit: I see this is being discussed in the other thread.
It always seemed like Wyc’s announced sale/Governorship control timeline was a mix of A) wanting to stay involved in the rest of the run with this core they just extended; but also B) a signal to potential bidders that he’d co to us to pay operating costs (salary and lux tax) out of the Grousbeck sale proceeds, until governorship was fully transferred in 2028.
I’m sure that timeline/delayed control will be negotiable as they evaluate bids, but Wyc might negotiate that planned sale structure against a commitment by the new ownership group to keep the cire together and pay the lux tax bills Wyc seem to want to pay through 2028.
I’m sure that timeline/delayed control will be negotiable as they evaluate bids, but Wyc might negotiate that planned sale structure against a commitment by the new ownership group to keep the cire together and pay the lux tax bills Wyc seem to want to pay through 2028.
If Al wants to keep playing, they need to really really sell him hard on taking less than $10M. I get that he wants something for his efforts, but the difference between $10M and the vet min is a rounding error against his career earnings, while it's incredibly material for the Celtics.
Joe got this from Pep Guardiola who he credits as his influence and mentor. Iirc, he had Pep seated behind the Celtics bench during the playoffs or finals.
Almost there...
View: https://twitter.com/CTabatabaie/status/1838232426658550271
9/24: Media Day
9/25: Training camp begins
10/4: + 10/6: Preseason games against DEN in Abu Dhabi
10/12: Preseason game vs PHI
10/13: Preseason game vs TOR
10/15: Preseason game @ TOR
10/22: Season opener + ring ceremony vs NYK
View: https://twitter.com/CTabatabaie/status/1838232426658550271
9/24: Media Day
9/25: Training camp begins
10/4: + 10/6: Preseason games against DEN in Abu Dhabi
10/12: Preseason game vs PHI
10/13: Preseason game vs TOR
10/15: Preseason game @ TOR
10/22: Season opener + ring ceremony vs NYK