Don’t listen to this Tim McMahon/Bontemps pod then. Bontemps is pretty weird about Tatum in general, but today was special.
View: https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status/1825911678233444395
Celtics Offseason 2024 - Wake Me Up When September Ends
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View: https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status/1825911678233444395
Basketball twitter/insta group think is a powerful thing. Nobody knows how any particular narrative takes hold really, but it just fucking does. TRic called it League Pass Mind or something above. Whatever it is, otherwise reasonable people nod along like sheep because of its sway. It's a weird phenomenon that you don't see in other sports really. And it's here to stay.
This is unquestionably true. It's not that shocking to people that understand basketball that the Celtics motherfucking trounced Dallas in the finals, yet somehow before the series the twitterati were giving Dallas a good chance and were talking about Boston's lucky journey through the east. Then a beat down happened. It's like these cats don't actually watch the games.
At least it appears that the good guys won't have to manufacture any shoulder chips next year. The lack of respect remains. Let them milk that for motivation.
Watching the replay of Game 7 the 2008 EC semis vs. the Cavs on NBA-TV and it bums me right the fuck out to see a healthy and productive Delonte West playing for Cleveland, knowing all he has been thru in the ensuing 16 years.
I'm pretty unlikely to listen to that, but I have to say: Windy and McMahon would be below-average contributors on this board in terms of basketball knowledge. So I give their "first person reporting from a source" a lot of weight, as they have all sorts of sources none of us do.....and their "analysis" very little as they simply don't have a very good track record or approach to analyzing the game.
Bontempts is sometimes annoying but he knows what he is talking about at least.
The Celtics opened the finals as -225 favorites, which aren't overwhelming odds but as a point of comparison, the last team to lose with odds that good are the 2019 Warriors, who were decimated by injuries. Before that, you have go to back to the 2004 Lakers to see a team with equal or better odds lose in the finals (and before that, I believe you'd need to go back 50+ years). Contrast that with the fact that something like 80% of public bet on the Mavericks, and it's pretty clear that there was a massive disconnect between those who know, and those who don't.
The value of the podcast is in their direct contact with NBA teams and players and they occasionally have interesting tidbits to share. I agree with you that insofar as analysis goes, they don't really try to dig in deep.
The weirdest thing about the podcast was that they one tier of 6 players - Wemby / Luka / Jokic / Giannis / SGA / Ant - and then they were comfortable saying that there's a "clear" second tier beginning with JT. Now after Wemby and Jokic, I could see various arguments for starting a team with any of the next 6 players (the other 5 + Embiid) but to say that Luka, SGA, Ant, and Giannis are a tier above JT in terms of starting a franchise is insane.
There's also inconsistent arguments, such Luka being #2 since he has great slash lines, has "won everywhere" has been 1st team All-NBA for five years plus is "somewhat durable" and then saying that JT is 1st Team All-NBA only because he's durable and then discounting the factthat he's actually won in the NBA.
Also, noting that Ant and SGA play some defense for a primary ball creator and then saying very little about JT's defense.
If it were me, I'd take JT over everyone but Wemby and Jokic. As the Thinking Basketball guys say, there's nothing more valuable than a two-way forward. And any GM who would take Luka 2nd is a GM not interested in winning a title IMO.
Tatum plays "passable" defense. Lol, ok. So did Pippen.
Edit: I don't think JT is at Pippen's level, but he's much, much closer to Pippen than he is to "passable."
You think so?
To be clear, I actually like Windy and McMahon. I go both ways with Bontemps but I think their basketball knowledge is pretty similar across the board. They are all definitely more into the rumor and speculation business than watching the games
Bontemps is odd to me. I think the content of what he actually says is generally fine - I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. However, his tone always sounds to me like he thinks he's so much better than anyone else and disgusted to be wasting his time talking to them. I find him incredibly off-putting as a result, even if it's probably just me.
I like all three of these guys generally, even if they are all more useful for their contacts than their basketball knowledge, it's generally an entertaining listen. They are prisoners of the moment as much as anyone (I remember after the Minnesota/Denver series McMahon scoffing at the idea that Tatum might still be a better player than Edwards, saying it wasn't even a discussion), but they usually aren't too far off.
Windy's takedown of Luka after game 3 was amazing and worth another watch:
View: https://youtu.be/FUKhCYPhG5c?si=LelAjjzHW5pwfxY9
Bontemps was pissed the other two didn't agree Embiid was better than Tatum where he thinks there is a wide gap because Embiid was an MVP. No one would pick Embiid over Tatum to build a team, it was a really weird pick being Embiid is never healthy. Windhorst mentioning the Tatum got 51 in a Game 7 (but downplayed it because it was a blow out, yes Tatum went ballastic and gutted Embiid, should have let Embiid try to get 76ers get back in the game) and Bontemps could kind see of the whole Embiid story taking holes. I think Bontemps is super on the 76ers train which is weird being he is a New York guy. I don't think he liked how much ESPN shipped him up to Boston last season.
Bontemps to me can break down a game/strategy in a pretty competent way, and understands the analytics, and he's a lot better at those than either Windy or McMahon...and I also agree wtih you guys Bontemps' approach is regularly kind of offputting.
I don't think Bontemps is a top-tier analyst, either. But he has something to offer other than sources/rumors/narratives. Overall, Windy is a pretty good rumor guy and that's more useful to me many times than Bontemps, because for breaking down games/strategies Nekias Duncan, Lowe, others are a lot better and on analytics Lowe, Pelton, etc. are a lot better than Bontemps anyway.
I don't think Bontemps is a top-tier analyst, either. But he has something to offer other than sources/rumors/narratives. Overall, Windy is a pretty good rumor guy and that's more useful to me many times than Bontemps, because for breaking down games/strategies Nekias Duncan, Lowe, others are a lot better and on analytics Lowe, Pelton, etc. are a lot better than Bontemps anyway.
When I was listening to the Embiid talk, I kept thinking of this game:
View: https://youtu.be/NLOJvl98SwQ?si=aLuJtJklWxPCNsbV
Bontemps also speaks fast and somewhat agressively and has a very staccato diction and I think all in all, the way he talks and sounds make him sound more like a know-it-all than an analyst, particularly when compared to the other two.
I have always liked the Hoops Collective because they do disagree and sometimes get testy with each other in a civil manner. I think Bontemps really thought the other two would agree with him but never they was really bought in on Embiid. They weren't really against it either and the lack of engagement frustrated him a bit. He rolled that into Tatum and Ant
The downplaying of the Tatum 51 points in game 7 because it was a blowout is one of the more annoying things I've heard. It was a blowout in large part BECAUSE he scored 51 points. If Boston had won by 40 and Tatum scored 35 it'd be a legit talking point, but when you score 51 and win by 24, the math doesn't add up. If Tatum had merely had a very good game (30 points) and Boston had won by 3, would he get more credit for having a great game against a bitter rival in a game 7 to advance to the conference finals?
I honestly don't understand how Embiid can even be in these sorts of franchise player discussions. He can't be trusted to be healthy or perform at a high level beyond the opening round of the playoffs, and he's now 30 years old. He is the oldest and least reliable player on that list (Wemby, Luka, Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Edwards, Tatum, Embiid, Booker), and only SGA and Wemby have weaker playoff resumes.
Oh and by the way Hoops Collective. Yes Ant has scored 40+ in playoff games but the list of players who have scored more than 50 points in a Game 7 is quite small. It's actually just one person.
Well, two. Curry scored 50 in game 7 against Sacramento just two weeks before Tatum's 51 against Philly.
*edit - Ah you said "more" than 50. NVM.
To your point, he had 25 points in the first half as the Celtics eked out a three point lead. He then went nuclear and led the explosion that took them from 57-55 to 73-58 lead in the middle of the third, at which point he had 38. He already had a monster, signature game 30 minutes into it. https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/pbp/202305140BOS.html
I loved Pippen because of his D, but Tatum on a team like Boston is even better due to everything he does on that end. He's almost like Garnett's MiniMe.
Not sure how weird it is, he just might be rebelling. My father came from a New York (football) Giants household and hated them as a result (he was a Redskins, Packers, and eventually Patriots fan). My mother emerged from a Brooklyn Dodgers household and hated them as a result. She rooted for the Giants only because everyone in her class was either a Dodger or Yankees fan (2-1 for the Dodgers).
I mean why not get on the Knicks bandwagon so he really doesn't have to travel at all instead of a 90 minute Amtrak.
Edit - Thinking about it Stephen A Smith may have carved out the Knicks himself despite not being a reporter any more (he is on air talent)
He added "I hope I can see the red dot."
It's awesome to have a quote machine coach when you're winning.
If Joe ever gets kidnapped and held for ransom, his captors will be able to prove that they actually have him after about 5 seconds of putting him on the phone.
Captors: "OK Joe, here's the phone, tell them something that your family or coworkers would instantly recognize as being you"
Mazzulla: "If someone grabs your arm with their hand, the weak point is the pinky, grab the pinky and wrench it away, the rest of the hand will follow."
Loved ones: "Jesus Christ, you've really got him. OK, you bastards, what are your terms?"
You know that question along the lines if you could have dinner and chat with 3 people from all of history who would it be? To me Joe has now walked up to my table in this thought exercise, looked at the other 3, flipped the table across the room and asks who's leaving to make room for him. Or he'd sit on the table like a psycho
CsBlog article points out that JT/JB really increased their driving during playoffs but particularly the Finals. Author wonders whether this increased driving will carry over to upcoming season. Numbers:
link: https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/9/7/24236531/jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-drives-boston-celtics-finals-nba-hidden-gem-dallas-mavericks
link: https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/9/7/24236531/jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-drives-boston-celtics-finals-nba-hidden-gem-dallas-mavericks
Unfortunately, the rest of the league doesn't have Luka playing make-believe perimeter defense.
Hands down, one of the 5 All-time worst defensive performances in an NBA Finals.
Somehow, only Celtic fans noticed this.
Maybe in the playoffs it will be matched but I can’t imagine over 82 games there will be the urgency or intensity by then OR the defense to require that much dribble penetration. The defense will be softer during the regular season so the open jumpers will be there.
Yeah, I was going to say: why would you want to tire yourself out in the regular season when you just learned you can turn it on at will in the playoffs?
Hopefully we can be done with the thing soon where we pretend regular season matters beyond staying out of the play-in and building your team's system/chemistry.
Damn….Tatum, Holiday and White even have to go to camp early after barely having an offseason. I’m more concerned about them mentally than physically from the drain.
He is 100% right. The Pacer offense was way better than the Luka/Kyrie slamming their heads into a wall over and over again.
People are really sleeping on the Pacers. I think they are going to be better than 76ers and Bucks.
Their roster is well constructed and if Nembhard continues to improve his scoring they will indeed be a huge problem. I agree with you that they have the potential to be one of the best teams in the EC - and they can pretty much match up with anyone too. Mathurin's absence felt really beneficial to Boston in that series and I imagine it would have gone differently with him healthy. Getting him back will make them tougher even before accounting for any improvement from players.
Mathurin would have helped their defense for sure, but he's a big net negative offensively. I'm not sure that the Pacers' identify of basically just outscoring you is the wrong choice for their roster.
FWIW, agree with CJM that the Pacers were the best team that we faced in the playoffs. It's not even that close IMO. The Celtics players and staff deserve a ton of credit for the display of mental and physical toughness that it took to make that series a sweep. That's a damn good team over there.
Mathurin is a Tatum/Brown stopper. That has a lot of value for opposing teams.
Here is the Celtics lowest 4th quarter win expectancies in each of their 16 playoff victories:
Even considering the sweep, that Pacers series really sticks out. People like to say that these games that "could go either way" but that wasn't the case against Indy (the only 50-50 game the Celtics won in these playoffs was G3 against Dallas). Indy had a great chance go to be up 3-1, absolutely should've been tied 2-2, and it's unbelievable that they had 3 separate games with a 90%+ chance of winning in the 4th quarter and lost all 3 games. Even considering the huge gap in talent and experience, that is just brutal.
Also, GJGE Miami. Congrats on winning a game and the multiple cheap shots on Tatum.
Yep because they didn't face him in the playoffs. Regular season defense is hard enough to evaluate so not sure either of us can make a strong case here.
My view is that Mathurin would have guarded both and made an impact in each case. People want to talk about Tatum's shooting struggles but we seem to keep skipping over the fact that in each game, Tatum spends quality time with the opposing team's best wing defenders. That's what we witnessed all playoffs and it didn't stop JT but it clearly bothered him. I understand that you don't think Mathurin is impactful so we can just move on.
Regardless of differing opinion of Mathurin's defensive abilities, my overall point is that on a team with six guys who can score, pass, and defend the ball, go ahead and try to take away one option with a massive bricklayer and see how it goes for you. Not only would I be glad if they tried that, I suspect that Carlisle would be correspondingly worried and would/will use Mathurin sparingly, like when the floor is Tatum, Horford, Hauser, Pritchard, and White or something of the sort. Against the machine, I don't see it though.
I was going to say in the other thread against the Pacers---I think they were the best team the Celtics played in the playoffs. I also don't know that their ceiling is super high (e.g. legit championship contender level) because they are not a good defensive team and I question Haliburton as a playoff focal point. But that is a deep, tough, offensively talented team....and who knows with another year and health whether they are good enough defensively. I'd bet on them being better than Dallas this season, honestly.
100%. Indiana figured out an effective defensive balance to their offensive pace post-All-Star Break and should have a healthy Haliburton. It wouldn’t shock me if the Pacers didn’t catapult to the top of the EC close to mid-50’s if things fall into place. They now know what they are capable of accomplishing and think that they make a leap. Also, I don’t feel their defense is nearly as bad as some make it out to me as much of it is correlated to their offensive system/pace but as said above I like how they are learning to balance and adding Siakam was huge in this area as a switchable big.
Dallas made some rotational changes that many are overlooking as simply replacing parts but that isn’t how I see it. We also have historically seen Kyrie do whatever Kyrie does after his initial year in an organization. Lots of variables at play in Dallas.
I agree, they improved defensively and with Siakam, Mathurin, Nembhard, Nesmith and at least in some situations Turner there's some credible defensive players. But the system isn't really there, they are young, there's no defensive stud there (imo), the PG is atrocious and the C is limited defensively. So there's a lot of work and unclear ability to be a really good defensive team.
I think Dallas added a potential headache in Klay and on net traded athleticism (a sneak strength for them in playoffs) for skills. It may work--their shooting is better for example---but they overachieved last year and have altered the mix, and as you note...they are still counting on Kyrie. The delta there is pretty wide and even if they brought back same crew + Klay as a pure addition I wouldn't project them even to make WCF this year....and they may or may not be as good.