Luka and SGA have gotta be considered heavy favorites for MVP next year (is SGA 2nd? I can't read the link). Luka won't get it if the Mavs finish out of the top tier in the west, unless SGA and the Thunder really falter.
Tatum has almost no shot at this point, though I like the sentiment from several national guys predicting it. His box score stats and efficiency would have to go up a real level for him to have a chance, and Boston being seen as a super team again (60+ wins) almost makes it more difficult for him, fair or not. The last true super team were the Curry/Durant warriors, and it's worth remembering that although Curry/Durant had won the three MVPs immediately prior to the teaming up and they had arguably the best team of all time during their three years together, this success absolutely did not show up in the MVP vote while together, despite incredible team success: They finished 6th and 9th in 2017, 10th and 7th in 2018 and 5th and 8th in 2019. There's a really narrow path for Tatum (excellent numbers, excellent team performance, and likely either injuries or underperformance by Celtic teammates) here, but though I can't read the reasoning, I agree with ESPN having him 7th. It's really hard to see how it happens.
Jokic will have a really hard time getting it again (4x in 5 years has only been done by Lebron and Russell, plus Denver is likely to take a step back in the regular season at least), Embiid is a national joke (assuming he has great stats and plays enough games to qualify, plenty of people won't vote for him purely on righteous principle), and I'd have Giannis as a pretty decent darkhorse candidate (he's still arguably the best 2-way player in the league, and everyone likes a comeback story). If Tatum is 7th, I assume the 6th guy ahead of him is Ant. Not super likely either, but I'll buy an argument that has him more likely to win MVP next year than Tatum.