Celtics Offseason 2024 - Wake Me Up When September Ends

InstaFace

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Very helpful. Repeating is hard. You've got to get a little extra juice from somewhere.
Having 6 of our 8-man playoff rotation being young enough that they're still on the upswing of their careers, getting better every year, is surely a help. Though Jaylen is approaching the point where that might not be true for much longer, and KP would have to stay on the court long enough to get better at things.
 

BigSoxFan

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I still can’t believe Jaylen is going to be 28 during the first week of the season.

Crazy how fast time goes by.
I attended that draft and the Tatum one and both guys looked so young (they obviously were!). Crazy to think how much both have accomplished since then.
 

lovegtm

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I still can’t believe Jaylen is going to be 28 during the first week of the season.

Crazy how fast time goes by.
Sort of true, but also it feels like this is the only Celtics team I've ever known, and that those two have been here forever.
 

Jimbodandy

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My take was that their defense was better than the offense in the finals. I think every game they won Dallas was under 100 points. Truly impressive shut down of the the STARZ driven Mavs.
This. Even for the last couple of years before this one, they win when engaged on defense. And Dallas has no answer for their defense.
 

NomarsFool

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What’s a good comp for Jaylen Brown that we can look at in terms of longevity? Putting injuries aside, for someone who is such an elite athlete, even by NBA standards, as Jaylen - how long should we expect him to be a top 15-25 player?
 

RorschachsMask

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What’s a good comp for Jaylen Brown that we can look at in terms of longevity? Putting injuries aside, for someone who is such an elite athlete, even by NBA standards, as Jaylen - how long should we expect him to be a top 15-25 player?
His game is unique. Obviously his athleticism is a big part of it, but he’s made his game more and more about a combination of power, and getting to his spots. That usually ages well, even as the athleticism fades.

I don’t see why he’s not in the discussion for all nba the next 3-4 years.
 

benhogan

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What’s a good comp for Jaylen Brown that we can look at in terms of longevity? Putting injuries aside, for someone who is such an elite athlete, even by NBA standards, as Jaylen - how long should we expect him to be a top 15-25 player?
with the defensive clinic he put on Luka, Brown's (28) past comps to Jimmy Butler (35) seem more apt.

JB will never make All-Defense but the spread isn't as great as it once was

EDIT...whoops:oops: I just noticed WBCD mentioned Butler already, so I agree with Wade
 

luckiestman

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Simmons is mentioning Bezos as bidder on Cs in his pod title. I didn’t listen yet
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Simmons is mentioning Bezos as bidder on Cs in his pod title. I didn’t listen yet
I just listened to this segment, he was "kind of reporting this" that all indications are Bezos is going to bid on the Cs. He and Klosterman were spit-balling on the WHY of him doing so, but in the end Simmons was speculating the Cs have 8 or 9 more years left on the TD Garden lease so Bezos could be eyeing the potential to make his mark with a new arena/entertainment outpost similar to what Ballmer is doing with the Intuit Dome, Dolan with the Sphere, etc.

I don't know Simmons' relationships with the Grousbecks or Steve Pagliuca but based on some of the other stuff he said i.e. Irv Grousbeck is not prioritizing a local buyer and just the best price, this could be a shot across the bow from Irv to Pagliuca that there will be no existing owner discount. Also the NBA is taking great interest in making sure the Cs go for full market price (Simmons said $6 billion) in order to not deflate the upcoming expansion sale(s).
 

luckiestman

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What’s a good comp for Jaylen Brown that we can look at in terms of longevity? Putting injuries aside, for someone who is such an elite athlete, even by NBA standards, as Jaylen - how long should we expect him to be a top 15-25 player?
Whatever Butler can do Jay can do better
 

lovegtm

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A LOT of people here got upset over the years whenever anyone threw out Butler as a development curve comp for JB (with appropriate qualifiers about that being nearly a best-case).

Pessimism isn't always realism.
 

BaseballJones

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ESPN.com projecting this coming season's awards.

For MVP, has Tatum #7. Doncic is #1 "after a commanding performance in the 2024 NBA Finals". A series during which he shot 24.4% from three, 58.6% from the line, had nearly as many turnovers as assists, and was a complete turnstile on defense.

Yes, he averaged 29.2 points a game, but he was also really bad in numerous facets of the game. But ok, a "commanding performance" in a series where his team got smoked 4-1.
 

joe dokes

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Having 6 of our 8-man playoff rotation being young enough that they're still on the upswing of their careers, getting better every year, is surely a help. Though Jaylen is approaching the point where that might not be true for much longer, and KP would have to stay on the court long enough to get better at things.
This reminds that, after the loss to the Lakers in '87, Bob Ryan wrote that it was now unlikely that Bird, at 30, would win two consecutive titles in his career.
 

TomRicardo

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ESPN.com projecting this coming season's awards.

For MVP, has Tatum #7. Doncic is #1 "after a commanding performance in the 2024 NBA Finals". A series during which he shot 24.4% from three, 58.6% from the line, had nearly as many turnovers as assists, and was a complete turnstile on defense.

Yes, he averaged 29.2 points a game, but he was also really bad in numerous facets of the game. But ok, a "commanding performance" in a series where his team got smoked 4-1.
Defense does not matter with these rankings at all. The idea is Elite Offense is the most important skill and defense can always be turned on. Also if you are producing elite offensive skills you shouldn't be expected to expend energy on defense. When you point out that elite defense can negate elite offense while you can't always turn on defense, what everyone says is Boston was super lucky and if you really think about it they actually lost. When you stare at them, they then talk bout how awesome Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are but then say the Nuggets were a better starting 5. I mean can't you see the logic. Bontemps was just saying Embiid is a bettter playoff player than Tatum.

NBA League Pass brain is real. You can see guys like Simmons and Windhurst struggle when Vegas and League Pass Brain don't align (Windhurst is usually better than others).
 

BaseballJones

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Defense does not matter with these rankings at all. The idea is Elite Offense is the most important skill and defense can always be turned on. Also if you are producing elite offensive skills you shouldn't be expected to expend energy on defense. When you point out that elite defense can negate elite offense while you can't always turn on defense, what everyone says is Boston was super lucky and if you really think about it they actually lost. When you stare at them, they then talk bout how awesome Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are but then say the Nuggets were a better starting 5. I mean can't you see the logic. Bontemps was just saying Embiid is a bettter playoff player than Tatum.

NBA League Pass brain is real. You can see guys like Simmons and Windhurst struggle when Vegas and League Pass Brain don't align (Windhurst is usually better than others).
But even if defense is a total nonfactor, Doncic had a woeful shooting percentage from three and from the FT line, and wasn't efficient at all on offense. He scored a lot of points, but not nearly as many as an elite guy should have given the number of shot attempts he had.
 

TomRicardo

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But even if defense is a total nonfactor, Doncic had a woeful shooting percentage from three and from the FT line, and wasn't efficient at all on offense. He scored a lot of points, but not nearly as many as an elite guy should have given the number of shot attempts he had.
Well it was the defense that caused that... d'uh.
 

lovegtm

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But even if defense is a total nonfactor, Doncic had a woeful shooting percentage from three and from the FT line, and wasn't efficient at all on offense. He scored a lot of points, but not nearly as many as an elite guy should have given the number of shot attempts he had.
Yeah, his offense was far from elite in the Finals. I don't think it's obvious he was better than Tatum and Brown, particularly when you factor in how often the latter two were able to get Dallas in rotation, to the point that Dallas resorted to gimmicky 1-man-zone type stuff.
 

Jimbodandy

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ESPN.com projecting this coming season's awards.

For MVP, has Tatum #7. Doncic is #1 "after a commanding performance in the 2024 NBA Finals". A series during which he shot 24.4% from three, 58.6% from the line, had nearly as many turnovers as assists, and was a complete turnstile on defense.

Yes, he averaged 29.2 points a game, but he was also really bad in numerous facets of the game. But ok, a "commanding performance" in a series where his team got smoked 4-1.
This place is going to flip when Doncic wins MVP next year and his team flames out in the second round of the playoffs. Good news is that these individual awards mean jack.
 

BaseballJones

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This place is going to flip when Doncic wins MVP next year and his team flames out in the second round of the playoffs. Good news is that these individual awards mean jack.
Agreed. But it sure would be nice to see Tatum get that recognition. But to me, I just want the Celtics to win it all. That's the bottom line.
 

Euclis20

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ESPN.com projecting this coming season's awards.

For MVP, has Tatum #7. Doncic is #1 "after a commanding performance in the 2024 NBA Finals". A series during which he shot 24.4% from three, 58.6% from the line, had nearly as many turnovers as assists, and was a complete turnstile on defense.

Yes, he averaged 29.2 points a game, but he was also really bad in numerous facets of the game. But ok, a "commanding performance" in a series where his team got smoked 4-1.
Luka and SGA have gotta be considered heavy favorites for MVP next year (is SGA 2nd? I can't read the link). Luka won't get it if the Mavs finish out of the top tier in the west, unless SGA and the Thunder really falter.

Tatum has almost no shot at this point, though I like the sentiment from several national guys predicting it. His box score stats and efficiency would have to go up a real level for him to have a chance, and Boston being seen as a super team again (60+ wins) almost makes it more difficult for him, fair or not. The last true super team were the Curry/Durant warriors, and it's worth remembering that although Curry/Durant had won the three MVPs immediately prior to the teaming up and they had arguably the best team of all time during their three years together, this success absolutely did not show up in the MVP vote while together, despite incredible team success: They finished 6th and 9th in 2017, 10th and 7th in 2018 and 5th and 8th in 2019. There's a really narrow path for Tatum (excellent numbers, excellent team performance, and likely either injuries or underperformance by Celtic teammates) here, but though I can't read the reasoning, I agree with ESPN having him 7th. It's really hard to see how it happens.

Jokic will have a really hard time getting it again (4x in 5 years has only been done by Lebron and Russell, plus Denver is likely to take a step back in the regular season at least), Embiid is a national joke (assuming he has great stats and plays enough games to qualify, plenty of people won't vote for him purely on righteous principle), and I'd have Giannis as a pretty decent darkhorse candidate (he's still arguably the best 2-way player in the league, and everyone likes a comeback story). If Tatum is 7th, I assume the 6th guy ahead of him is Ant. Not super likely either, but I'll buy an argument that has him more likely to win MVP next year than Tatum.
 

BaseballJones

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Luka and SGA have gotta be considered heavy favorites for MVP next year (is SGA 2nd? I can't read the link). Luka won't get it if the Mavs finish out of the top tier in the west, unless SGA and the Thunder really falter.

Tatum has almost no shot at this point, though I like the sentiment from several national guys predicting it. His box score stats and efficiency would have to go up a real level for him to have a chance, and Boston being seen as a super team again (60+ wins) almost makes it more difficult for him, fair or not. The last true super team were the Curry/Durant warriors, and it's worth remembering that although Curry/Durant had won the three MVPs immediately prior to the teaming up and they had arguably the best team of all time during their three years together, this success absolutely did not show up in the MVP vote while together, despite incredible team success: They finished 6th and 9th in 2017, 10th and 7th in 2018 and 5th and 8th in 2019. There's a really narrow path for Tatum (excellent numbers, excellent team performance, and likely either injuries or underperformance by Celtic teammates) here, but though I can't read the reasoning, I agree with ESPN having him 7th. It's really hard to see how it happens.

Jokic will have a really hard time getting it again (4x in 5 years has only been done by Lebron and Russell, plus Denver is likely to take a step back in the regular season at least), Embiid is a national joke (assuming he has great stats and plays enough games to qualify, plenty of people won't vote for him purely on righteous principle), and I'd have Giannis as a pretty decent darkhorse candidate (he's still arguably the best 2-way player in the league, and everyone likes a comeback story). If Tatum is 7th, I assume the 6th guy ahead of him is Ant. Not super likely either, but I'll buy an argument that has him more likely to win MVP next year than Tatum.
I guess it'll be amazing again to see a guy average like 28/9/7, being the best player on the best team in the NBA, and finish so far down in the MVP voting.
 

Euclis20

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I guess it'll be amazing again to see a guy average like 28/9/7, being the best player on the best team in the NBA, and finish so far down in the MVP voting.
Tatum has never averaged even 5 assists in the regular season (let alone 7) but even if those are his stats (and he finishes with similar efficiency numbers as the last couple of years), it's gonna be really, really difficult. At a glance, here are who I assume the top 5 are, and their numbers last year:

Luka: 34/9/10
SGA: 30/6/6
Embiid: 35/11/6
Jokic: 26/12/9
Giannis: 30/12/7

Even if Tatum did average 28/9/7 (again, the best of his career), it wouldn't stand out at all next to the group above. 5th in points, tied for 4th in rebounds, tied for 3rd in assists, and they were all substantially more efficient scorers (Giannis, Embiid, Jokic and SGA were all top 15 in TS%, Luka was 38th, Tatum was 58th). Fair or not, I don't think playing for the best team is going to help him, unless the general feeling is that he took on a larger load this year (KP missing most of the first half is a good start, but probably not enough). If Tatum were to average 28/9/7 and everyone else did similar to this past year, the only guy who Tatum compares favorably to is SGA...and SGA is a far more efficient scorer, and there's a very real shot that the Thunder finish with more wins than Boston (and the gap between SGA and the #2 on OKC is far greater than the gap between Tatum and Brown, meaning SGA will get more credit for their success than Tatum will for Boston's).

Tatum was easily the best player on by far the best team this past year, and I feel like he had legit MVP buzz for about a week (at the worst possible time, right before he played terribly in losses to Cleveland and Denver). Maybe a necessary disclaimer: I think Tatum is more than the 7th most valuable player in the league, but the national discourse feels pretty much set in stone for him. I think a drop from 1st team all-NBA is more likely than serious (top 3) MVP status.
 

Jimbodandy

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Agreed. But it sure would be nice to see Tatum get that recognition. But to me, I just want the Celtics to win it all. That's the bottom line.
Yeah I think that it would be nice too, but I think that JT is heading down the career path of Tim Duncan. Quietly effective, (hopefully) multiple titles, consistently underrated by basically everyone. To their credit, the Athletic ranked Duncan in the top-10 on their list, but pretty much everyone just glosses him over. I expect the same for Tatum in the end. Maybe he eventually wins an MVP or two like Duncan when they have no choice but to give them to him, but he seems destined to be underrated.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Tatum has almost no shot at this point, though I like the sentiment from several national guys predicting it. His box score stats and efficiency would have to go up a real level for him to have a chance, and Boston being seen as a super team again (60+ wins) almost makes it more difficult for him, fair or not. The last true super team were the Curry/Durant warriors, and it's worth remembering that although Curry/Durant had won the three MVPs immediately prior to the teaming up and they had arguably the best team of all time during their three years together, this success absolutely did not show up in the MVP vote while together, despite incredible team success: They finished 6th and 9th in 2017, 10th and 7th in 2018 and 5th and 8th in 2019. There's a really narrow path for Tatum (excellent numbers, excellent team performance, and likely either injuries or underperformance by Celtic teammates) here, but though I can't read the reasoning, I agree with ESPN having him 7th. It's really hard to see how it happens.
The only way JT has a shot of getting MVP is if teams have decided that doubling him isn't going to work given how good his teammates are so they play him more straight up.

But that's not going to happen.

JT and the rest of the Cs get penalized for having 5 of the top 50-ish (40-ish? 30-ish?) players on one team. Good thing we as fans don't.
 

the moops

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JT and the rest of the Cs get penalized for having 5 of the top 50-ish (40-ish? 30-ish?) players on one team. Good thing we as fans don't.
As well they should. There really are players that are more valuable to their teams than Tatum is to Boston. Doesn’t mean they are better, or more well rounded, or play good defense, it just means that their team would suffer much much more without them.
 

Euclis20

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As well they should. There really are players that are more valuable to their teams than Tatum is to Boston. Doesn’t mean they are better, or more well rounded, or play good defense, it just means that their team would suffer much much more without them.
It brings up philosophical questions about how to measure value in the NBA. Is a player A more valuable if he is the difference between winning 35 games and 50? Or is player B more valuable if he's the difference between winning 50 and winning 60 games? Or how about player C, being the difference between winning 20 games and winning 40 games? Is a player most valuable if they can increase the regular season win count by the most? Or does the player who can bring a team closest to a title the most valuable?

If the reincarnation of prime Bill Russell were to join the current Celtics roster, would he have any chance of being the most valuable player in the league? It's a regular season award, and at some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in.
 

BigSoxFan

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It brings up philosophical questions about how to measure value in the NBA. Is a player A more valuable if he is the difference between winning 35 games and 50? Or is player B more valuable if he's the difference between winning 50 and winning 60 games? Or how about player C, being the difference between winning 20 games and winning 40 games? Is a player most valuable if they can increase the regular season win count by the most? Or does the player who can bring a team closest to a title the most valuable?

If the reincarnation of prime Bill Russell were to join the current Celtics roster, would he have any chance of being the most valuable player in the league? It's a regular season award, and at some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in.
I think it is an interesting thought exercise. Let’s say JT takes an MJ sabbatical for a year or gets hurt, how many games is the 2024-2025 Celtics winning given that KP is also out for probably half or more of the season? Is this a 45 win team? 40? Looks like they went 7-1 without JT last year with only L being to Indy by 2 due to that BS Jaylen call replay.
 

lovegtm

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As well they should. There really are players that are more valuable to their teams than Tatum is to Boston. Doesn’t mean they are better, or more well rounded, or play good defense, it just means that their team would suffer much much more without them.
The counterargument is that the hardest thing in the NBA is squeezing out that last 5-10% of team performance. Teams go deep into the tax to try to do that, make big risky moves at the margin to do it....and are rightly crucified when they don't do it (Denver letting KCP walk).

Now, if we're talking about how people actually vote, you're 100% correct. But that's very different from "are more valuable to their teams", because most NBA value is in that last 5-10%.

Durant and Curry got so disrespected, and very improperly.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah I think that it would be nice too, but I think that JT is heading down the career path of Tim Duncan. Quietly effective, (hopefully) multiple titles, consistently underrated by basically everyone. To their credit, the Athletic ranked Duncan in the top-10 on their list, but pretty much everyone just glosses him over. I expect the same for Tatum in the end. Maybe he eventually wins an MVP or two like Duncan when they have no choice but to give them to him, but he seems destined to be underrated.
I'd happily take a Duncan-like career for JT.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'd happily take a Duncan-like career for JT.
Yeah and I'm sure that he would too. It's insulting not to be acknowledged fully for what you do, especially when you're still young. But winning titles and being a dominant player for a long period of time is a pretty sweet career, even without a couple of MVPs. I doubt that Tim would trade his resume with anyone.
 

InstaFace

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Wasn't there a lot of buzz this spring among the Port Cellar that MVP consideration, that being talked about as one of the best players in the league and in the MVP conversation, was a function of respect, and you had to earn that with success - a title, most particularly - before you'd get your due? That if we won the title with Tatum being Celtics MVP, then as night follows day, we would start to hear NBA MVP buzz about him for next season? "Like clockwork", was the phrase I remember hearing. And yet, here we are, with yet another feather in his cap (this time a title) now being tossed aside.

There keep being increasingly elaborate excuses being given for why Tatum won't be in the conversation, and why even some players who are objectively worse at helping their team win a title (like Luka or Embiid) are being praised over him. Let him put one excuse to bed, and another will simply pop up in its place. The whole thing is collectively unanswerable. It resembles a guy trying to argue a girl into dating him - no matter how brilliantly he can parry each argument with logic, the logic is irrelevant, it'll just be replaced with something else, because the underlying reason, the REAL reason, is emotional. And you can't reason with emotions. The only winning move is not to play - to not give a shit.

The nice thing is, there's a flip side: you can't emote your way to wins and championships, either. I'll take my consolation in that.
 

scottyno

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Wasn't there a lot of buzz this spring among the Port Cellar that MVP consideration, that being talked about as one of the best players in the league and in the MVP conversation, was a function of respect, and you had to earn that with success - a title, most particularly - before you'd get your due? That if we won the title with Tatum being Celtics MVP, then as night follows day, we would start to hear NBA MVP buzz about him for next season? "Like clockwork", was the phrase I remember hearing. And yet, here we are, with yet another feather in his cap (this time a title) now being tossed aside.
Brown winning the 2 playoff mvps during that title run kind of killed that narrative nationally. If enough of the general public can't even agree that Tatum is the clear best player on the team then he can't possibly get mvp buzz.
 

InstaFace

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Brown winning the 2 playoff mvps during that title run kind of killed that narrative nationally
Should it have, though? It's not like anyone seriously doubts whether Tatum is the best player on the Celtics. Just ask all the coaches who keep anchoring their game planning around him.
 

scottyno

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Should it have, though? It's not like anyone seriously doubts whether Tatum is the best player on the Celtics. Just ask all the coaches who keep anchoring their game planning around him.
Great, those coaches aren't the ones that are writing about preseason mvp buzz. I'm not sure what you've been reading for the last few months if you don't think anyone doubts that Tatum is the best player on the team, "should it have" is irrelevant.
 

Euclis20

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Should it have, though? It's not like anyone seriously doubts whether Tatum is the best player on the Celtics. Just ask all the coaches who keep anchoring their game planning around him.
One of the nice things about having your two best players be similar in size and play style is that it's often quite easy to see who opposing teams are more scared of. It's a relatively useless luxury, but it does render these sorts of rankings pretty moot.

Obviously no serious people believe Brown is the better player, but (and you may want to sit down for this) a lot of deeply unserious people have MVP votes.
 

InstaFace

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Great, those coaches aren't the ones that are writing about preseason mvp buzz. I'm not sure what you've been reading for the last few months if you don't think anyone doubts that Tatum is the best player on the team, "should it have" is irrelevant.
Can you find me one person with a platform opining that Tatum isn't the best player on the Celtics? Besides trolls like Nick Wright, I mean. A few minutes of googling brought me to Shannon Sharpe "just asking questions", but otherwise I came up empty. Meanwhile you've got things like Bill Simmons asking Reddit this.

If this is some sort of narrative that I've totally missed out on, I think the Port Cellar has collectively missed out on it too. So, by all means, show us what we're missing.

Obviously no serious people believe Brown is the better player, but (and you may want to sit down for this) a lot of deeply unserious people have MVP votes.
Yeah, fair point. Though I think we both come to the same conclusion I did in my post above.
 

lovegtm

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At this point, I just have to assume that a lot of supposedly serious observers just don't understand basketball that well. Citing slash lines in any context should be disqualifying.