Fair point. But it does sound like the Celtics value him highly and he likes playing here a lot. We're a long way from resigning him, but that's a good place to start at least.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Morris drove me crazy all year but I wouldn't try to trade him until at least the deadline. I want to keep Hayward's minutes down all season.
Agreed. He’s a mixed bag but who’s the scoring wing off the bench without him? He’s a versatile player and I wouldn’t give him up unless his salary is needed for a bigger deal or he becomes a locker room issue, which doesn’t seem likely at this point.
At $5M, for what he does, he's exactly the type of value player a championship team needs.
It is also worth remembering that whether a team is in the luxury tax is not determined by a team's salary structure at the beginning of the season.
Celtics will have full MLE to use, which will be a nice piece to add. Last year they only had the room exception for Baynes, which is only half as much. Tyreke Evans (sure wish Celtics used the DPE on him instead of Monroe) would look nice with some or all of the MLE. Other intriguing names - Trevor Ariza, Will Barton, KCP, Mbah a Moute, O'Quinn, Dedmon, Noel
None of those really move the needle for me. Maybe O'Quinn if they lose Baynes.
IMO, any fear of Marcus and Marcus jacking up bad shots next year is misplaced. Sure, there was plenty of that the last couple of months. But what I saw is guys comfortable creating shots for themselves when nobody else was. That problem is about 97% mitigated if Kyrie and Heighwude aren't wearing street clothes. The offense struggled at times late this year, particularly in the playoffs.
I get that DA wants to put off the luxury stuff, and maybe a Marcus or two will want more minutes than are available. But toughness matters. If DA thinks that either or both Marcuses bring something that really helps the team, he's not going to worry about the occasional ill-timed three or iso long two.
I get that DA wants to put off the luxury stuff, and maybe a Marcus or two will want more minutes than are available. But toughness matters. If DA thinks that either or both Marcuses bring something that really helps the team, he's not going to worry about the occasional ill-timed three or iso long two.
Morris' name will come up in trade talks because his contract makes him a tradeable asset, and he could be used to find a Baynes replacement if necessary. So, Ainge will go shopping, as we expect him to do. I agree he has a role here, and he has zero leverage to force a trade, so chances are he'll be back. Just saying his name will come up a lot.
I agree. I would go even further to say that what this team will need next year from the bench is a defensive stopper or two. That will be what each Marcus can bring.
As many have stated, whether its made this summer, in season, or next summer, a fundamental decision Ainge has to make is whether to keep Smart or Rozier (or neither). Seems impossible to keep both beyond 2019. All year, I've been on team Rozier, felt vindicated when Irving went down, even more vindicated in Bucks/Sixers series.. and am now wavering (recency bias, sigh).
Ainge/Zarren have a 'price' they're willing to pay Smart, so I'm interested to see 'plan B' evolve if/when the market is willing to pay Smart beyond his value. Do they just let Smart walk... or match (overpay) and try to trade him down the road? Is the Rozier's future independent or dependent on what happens to Smart? What FA ball handlers/wings will be targeted if both Smart signs elsewhere and Ainge likes the trade market for Rozier? (I like Pat Connaughton and Seth Curry...but doesn't seem to be a lot of good options).
Ainge/Zarren have a 'price' they're willing to pay Smart, so I'm interested to see 'plan B' evolve if/when the market is willing to pay Smart beyond his value. Do they just let Smart walk... or match (overpay) and try to trade him down the road? Is the Rozier's future independent or dependent on what happens to Smart? What FA ball handlers/wings will be targeted if both Smart signs elsewhere and Ainge likes the trade market for Rozier? (I like Pat Connaughton and Seth Curry...but doesn't seem to be a lot of good options).
The problem is his salary is too small. He is making an akward 5 million which is difficult to find a match in a trade. Or at least difficult to find someone nearly as good making that much who isn't on their rookie contract .
Yeah, he'd probably have to function like Jae: be perceived added value in a larger deal, either for the team that acquires him, or as a piece to be moved once more.
Personally, I am in the hold onto Rozier until the trade deadline and re-sign Smart to a reasonable long term deal boat, but if Ainge were inclined to move Rozier who is a realistic trading partner and what is the return?
Getting a top 10 pick for Rozier seems like a pipe dream both in terms of his relative value and the needs of those teams.
Depending on how Philly ((#10) feels internally about Fultz the roster fit could be there, but I can't see those teams striking a deal again in the near term. Charlotte (11), Denver (14) and Washington (15) don't need a guard in the Scary Terry mold. If Roc Divers was still the Clippers GM, #12/13 could be a target, but West is probably not making that deal.
The best fit l see is Phoenix at 16. Where once they had over abundance of point guards they now have none (Elfrid Payton does not count - look at his on/off numbers through the years). Whether they draft Ayton or Doncic, the Suns will need someone to guard 1's and provide spacing. The seat has to be at least warm for Ryan McDonough. So while they should probably tank for another year maybe there is pressure to start winning now. Would you take #16 and Alan Williams for Rozier?
Getting a top 10 pick for Rozier seems like a pipe dream both in terms of his relative value and the needs of those teams.
Depending on how Philly ((#10) feels internally about Fultz the roster fit could be there, but I can't see those teams striking a deal again in the near term. Charlotte (11), Denver (14) and Washington (15) don't need a guard in the Scary Terry mold. If Roc Divers was still the Clippers GM, #12/13 could be a target, but West is probably not making that deal.
The best fit l see is Phoenix at 16. Where once they had over abundance of point guards they now have none (Elfrid Payton does not count - look at his on/off numbers through the years). Whether they draft Ayton or Doncic, the Suns will need someone to guard 1's and provide spacing. The seat has to be at least warm for Ryan McDonough. So while they should probably tank for another year maybe there is pressure to start winning now. Would you take #16 and Alan Williams for Rozier?
Yes. This almost certainly will not happen. He’ll be dealt during the off-season or not at all.
As I said the last time this came up, it's Smart or neither. Irving is the lead guard here on a long term basis, and Rozier's postseason run is going to get him an offer that Boston can't justify for a backup lead guard. Every team with cap space in the summer of '19, which is a lot more than this summer, knows that they can make a submax offer to Rozier that Boston can't justify (because being in luxury taxland that $16-$18 million paycheck costs Boston an extra $8-$9 million).
If they can't work out a deal with Smart, they'll take him on the QO, likely deal Rozier for a draft pick to pick up a long term replacement for them, and then roll out their team for 2019.
That's why I am in the hold onto him until the deadline boat, but recognize that reasonable minds can differ.
His value as a trade piece for most teams is his RFA rights, which still exist at the deadline.
Waiting gives you the benefit of additional information. Maybe a team on the fringes of the playoffs has an injury or becomes disenchanted with its PG. Maybe Kyrie or Smart get injured. Maybe the Celtics are historically great and Rozier is a key cog on bench units and the mid to late first round pick you get for him is not worth diminishing your chances to win a title.
I am also operating under the assumptions 1) the most GM's in the league are familiar with per 36 and per 100 position stats, so that the inevitable reduction in minutes, shots and role is not going to crater his value and 2) that given Ainge's and Steven's excellent relationship if Rozier is expendable and Danny thinks it will help his value, then Brad can arrange some planned rest for others to showcase Rozier as the deadline approaches.
Yes, the two teams that should be looking to deal with Boston, Philly and Cleveland, probably won't due to the PR aspects. Rozier for #10 and a removal of the protections on the Sacramento pick is fair value for a guy that would thrive playing next to Ben Simmons.
Similarly a deal of Rozier/Sacramento #1 for Junior Nance/#8 is probably fair, but given how the Irving deal turned out, undoable from a PR standpoint. Even though they probably should be gambling on two high/mid lottery picks next year.
HRB swears that Charlotte is moving Walker, so Rozier actually might fit there. West probably would make a deal because, normally speaking, the best case scenario for a mid first round pick just is Terry Rozier.
As for the Suns, I'd rather #16 and the Miami first they have in their pocket than any player off that roster. But I don't think there's a deal to be had there as McDonough seems to hold a grudge. Not even being on the hot seat, I think, budges him from overvaluing his terrible players and mid first round picks where Boston's concerned.
I get that he would still have value. My question would be, who takes over those minutes down the stretch and into the postseason for Boston? Someone that played as the 3rd PG during the season? Sounds dangerous. No one here was thrilled with Larkin as the backup after Kyrie went down.
This is a good post. Like others have said here, I'm assuming Ainge views the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap for next year*. So taking into account all of the different players who have raises coming, the need to acquire Larkin- and Baynes-like backup plans for depth, and the possible use of the MLE... we end up with a constrained optimization problem. How do we get the most bang out of those bucks? That will determine what we can pay Smart and how we can get the most out of Rozier and Morris.
First let's put a number on those bucks. In 2017-18, the luxury tax line was $119.3M. We spent $115M. For next year, we have material raises (>$1M) coming for Hayward, Horford, Irving, Tatum and Rozier, and we have Monroe ($5M), Smart ($4.5M), Baynes ($4.3M) and Larkin ($1.5M) coming off the books. The net is a projected 2018-19 total of $107.4M, before re-signing any of those players or role-equivalent substitutes. And most importantly, the cap and tax threshold are only projected to rise about $2M.
So I conclude we have about $12-13M to work with, and we're not giving all of that to Marcus Smart. Realistically, we may not even be able to afford both Smart and Baynes and stay out of the tax, nevermind a credible replacement for Monroe. Rozier at $3.1 and Morris at $5.4 are our most-tradeable contracts, so if we are able to move one for future assets, that might get us enough room to work those two back in the fold, but then we have a similar problem for 4th guard or 2nd-unit scorer. There's no obvious optimal solution here, but it's entirely possible that we fail to re-sign Smart for luxury-tax reasons rather than differing valuations of his skills.
* ...before blowing past the tax threshold in 2019-20 so fast it'll make our head spin, starting with a ~$10M raise to max for Kyrie.
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I've seen a few places suggesting the luxury tax threshold will be $123 million (here and here for example), and they can gain close to an extra million by cutting Nader. But of course none of that effects the fundamental point that if they treat the luxury tax threshold as a defacto hard cap they don't have a ton of room to work with.
I think the biggest issue people are missing with waiting til the deadline is chemistry. This isn’t baseball where they can wait til the deadline to sell off a few RPs if the team isn’t in contention. If the goal is to trade him between this offseason and the deadline, then there’s is no point in waiting it out. You’d rather get his replacement in there at the start of camp, learning the system and his teammates.
I get the team if better off with Terry over say a Larkin but do we think that drop off is going to sink the team’s title hopes? If fully healthy Terry is in the 6-8th range of importance even without Smart. They have their stars and future stars, instead of holding onto a valuable backup that won’t break the season’s chances and almost definitely won’t be here next year they absolutely have to max out his FUTURE value.
I get the team if better off with Terry over say a Larkin but do we think that drop off is going to sink the team’s title hopes? If fully healthy Terry is in the 6-8th range of importance even without Smart. They have their stars and future stars, instead of holding onto a valuable backup that won’t break the season’s chances and almost definitely won’t be here next year they absolutely have to max out his FUTURE value.
I think they desperately need to stay below the lux tax this year to avoid starting the clock on the repeater tax. They will be in the lux tax starting in 2020 for years to come with Kyrie/Hayward/Tatum/brown deals. Don’t start the repeater this year when you really don’t have too.
Well, the tension with that is that they will be contenders, if not the outright favorites, for the title in 2019. So, do you cost yourself a few percentage points of championship equity by going (slightly) cheap next year? Does that austerity gain you the financial flexibility to hold onto more championship equity in future years? I don't think there are necessarily easy answers there, Wyc and Pagliuca know they're going to be coughing up, but surely there is a limit in dollars and years to their intended largesse.
The most interesting one I've heard from my buddy down there is to the Knicks for Ntilikina, the #8 pick and filler (Lance Thomas works) for salary purposes.
It makes sense on so many levels. Kupchak wants to put his stamp on his new team and doesn't want to lose Kemba for nothing in FA next summer. The Knicks new GM didn't draft Ntilikina and can add immediate legitimacy to the team by adding Kemba long term.
How does this affect us? Many feel that Ntilikina isn't a pure 1 and can defend multiple guard positions which in today's NBA could be a good match with Rozier then use 8 for a frontcourt player such as Wendell Carter. The deal I floated a couple weeks ago was Rozier for #11 and Kaminski (or Hernangomez) to select Collin Sexton in dialing back the clock 3 years at the position with a similar style player. With Charlotte getting 8 back from the Knicks they still realize the ability to add a young piece even while moving 11.
A couple of nibbles:
Spotrac is estimating a tax threshold of $123M, an increase of $3.4M over 2017-18. Tax threshold moves are related to salary cap increases, but they can be greater or less, as the formulas used to calculate the cap and tax threshold are slightly different.
I really don't think the team feels they need a "credible replacement for Monroe". He was a non-factor since he arrived aside from 1 or 2 games.
I think it's more accurate to say that the team currently has 11 players under contract for the upcoming season. They will be adding a first round pick for about $1.5M, bringing us to 12, while reducing the available tax space by the same amount. Assuming Spotrac is correct, that leaves them with about $14M to resign Smart and Baynes, or their replacements. And they still may want to round out the roster with a 15th player (most likely Jabari Bird), which puts them on the hook for another $1.3M or so.
Then again, the owners may decide this is the year to go over, figuring they'll take the chance and grab the window while it is still open. Lots of moving parts in this one.
They also probably only have less than 10 million and not 14. They always leave wiggle room in case something comes up during the season.
CHA might be in play because they desperately need cap relief and Walker's pretty much the only non-draft pick asset they have.
However, West is never going to make a deal. The best case scenario for a mid-1st round pick may be Terry Rozier's upside, but it also has four years of cost control which Terry doesn't have.
Man, cap space is worth its weight in gold in today's NBA.
This is the Knicks we're talking about so anything is possible but Ntilikina/#9 (Cavs have #8) seems like too much for an undersized PG who just turned 28 years-old, particularly since 2018-2019 is basically a wasted year. I like Walker but the timing just seems off for a Knicks deal. Of course, they have to appease Porzingis so there could be real pressure to add a "known" guy. Rozier isn't quite there.
I would do your Rozier to Charlotte deal in a heartbeat.
1 - Completely agree on Monroe. We need a Baynes replacement but those 2nd unit deep bench minutes are pretty much fungible and you can always find a veteran at the deadline to provide depth. Certainly not a priority in the offseason.
2 - Could not agree any less. It is imperative that Ainge delays the clock on the repeater tax as he's building this team for long-term success. He is never going to become irresponsible with his books to accelerate to end of our optimal window once the 4-to-1 tax is about to hit. We all know that Wyc will go over the tax line to compete for a Championship.....but I'll confidently say that he will never go into repeater tax territory. I can't imagine anyone who values fiscal responsibility will (maybe someone like Ballmer will lose his mind and do so).
Could definitely see another draft and stash with our #1 to keep that off the books for a year.
May not help that much if they want to use all 15 roster spots. The minimum salary for a low first is similar to the veteran min for a player with 4 or fewer years.
I think Morris is fine for what he is and shouldn't be compared in the same breath to Marcus Smart when it comes to chucking.
It's amazing that people watch the same games and come away from completely different impressions. Agree that Morris is a good player overall, but my eye, he is a complete black hole on offense. Smart definitely takes some ill-advised shots, but also creates for his team mates quite a bit.
He was more efficient than Terry Rozier. Morris hit 36.8% of his 3 point attempts, and hit his FTs. He wasn't much of a creator for other people and when he got the ball, you knew he was going to shoot, but that's also what his role is. He was also more effective in the 2nd half when they started relying on him more.
Morris was needed on this team this year. His ability to get a decent look in ISO was sometimes the best look for the team when the offense broke down. Next year, that need will be diminished with Hayward and Kyrie, and an improved Tatum and Brown. I'm guessing he is not on this team next year.
Black holes carry a negative connotation but aren't necessarily a bad thing on your second unit where most of your teammates tend to not be very good offensive players. There is tremendous value in shot creation on a second unit when you don't necessarily want to create shots for bad shooters or bad scorers. That is what Morris brings......Smart doesn't bring scoring which makes him a better fit as a defensive stopper on the first unit if he could only stop up ill-advised shots.
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I'm a hell of a lot more concerned about Smart turning the ball over than his shot hucking. When he has guys looking for a shot around him, he facilitates just fine. He's not looking to lead the team in field goal attempts. That shit happens when JB and JT are staring at their shoes and nobody else out there wants the ball either. Marcus is a plus guy when he's taking care of the ball.
Following Smart's comments on his perceived value and Rozier surely gone after next season at the latest let's presume he's moved for a Baynes replacement this summer leaving
The top guy would appear to be Ainge's longtime binky Tyreke Evans who as a RFA wouldn't likely receive a greater than MLE offer. With the opportunity to play a key role on an up and coming contender I'd imagine Tyreke would be ours for the taking should we lose Smart and move Rozier. One interesting RFA is Utah's Dante Exum who would also be an ideal fit in that role as a big/long combo guard off the bench but between Utah's ability to match coupled with Tyreke seemingly an easier get I'd say he's more of a longshot.
I'd be quite fine entering next season with Tyreke and Sexton replacing Smart and Rozier.
The top guy would appear to be Ainge's longtime binky Tyreke Evans who as a RFA wouldn't likely receive a greater than MLE offer. With the opportunity to play a key role on an up and coming contender I'd imagine Tyreke would be ours for the taking should we lose Smart and move Rozier. One interesting RFA is Utah's Dante Exum who would also be an ideal fit in that role as a big/long combo guard off the bench but between Utah's ability to match coupled with Tyreke seemingly an easier get I'd say he's more of a longshot.
I'd be quite fine entering next season with Tyreke and Sexton replacing Smart and Rozier.
Tyreke Evans is an unrestricted FA and probably the best guard available this off-season. It's very hard to imagine him being available at anything close to a price the Celtics can afford. He's also exactly the sort of player that is most likely to be attractive to a bad team, which is who has cap space right now, because he scores the basketball and can create offense.
I dunno about how desirable a soon-to-be 30-year old coming off a 3-year period of playing 117 games and missing 129 is to a bad team all while having a chronic knee condition that has required at least 3 surgeries since 2015.
For years it has been assumed by everyone that Tyreke Evans is Ainge's binkie. What hard evidence exists that this is so? Has Ainge ever made a public statement about Evans? Has anyone other than Bill Simmons purported to have inside information that Ainge loves Evans?
"And while there have been ample rumors in the past year about Boston chasing the likes of Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns, the answer could be slightly different: Texas center Mo Bamba, who is expected to be one of the top picks in this year’s draft.
Sources told Sporting News that Boston has expressed interest in Bamba, including interviewing him at the Chicago pre-draft combine two weeks ago. Bamba measured in with a record wingspan of 7-10 in Chicago, reinforcing his status as the most ready-made rim protector in the draft.
Of course, the challenge is securing a pick that will be high enough to land Bamba. He could go as high as No. 3 to the Hawks, and there has also been talk that the Magic — picking sixth — are high on Bamba and won’t let him drop past their slot.
The Celtics have the No. 27 pick, but they have multiple assets on hand that could help them move into the top five of the draft, where the Grizzlies (No. 4) and Mavericks (No. 5) have made it clear they’re willing to make a deal.
It’s almost certain that the Celtics would not move rookie forward Jayson Tatum, who just wrapped up the postseason as the team’s leading scorer, at 18.5 points per game. Less certain, though, is what Boston might do with point guard Terry Rozier (16.5 points, 5.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game in the playoffs) or swingman Jaylen Brown (18.0 points per game in the playoffs).
In order to move into the top five of the draft, the Celtics would likely have to give up either Rozier or Brown — Dallas (Dennis Smith Jr.) and Memphis (Mike Conley) already have point guards, and would almost certainly prefer Brown.
And Boston probably would have to include this year’s draft pick, as well as at least one pick next year, when the Celtics own Sacramento’s pick (protected for the first overall pick) as well as Memphis’ pick (top-eight protected).
But the Celtics have a near-complete roster. A rim protector like Bamba — who has also shown flashes of offensive improvement heading into the draft — could be a solid finishing touch."
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-draft-2018-trade-rumors-celtics-news-mo-bamba-terry-rozier-jaylen-brown/133p7iqhqcizdzpnevero3fsg?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Sources told Sporting News that Boston has expressed interest in Bamba, including interviewing him at the Chicago pre-draft combine two weeks ago. Bamba measured in with a record wingspan of 7-10 in Chicago, reinforcing his status as the most ready-made rim protector in the draft.
Of course, the challenge is securing a pick that will be high enough to land Bamba. He could go as high as No. 3 to the Hawks, and there has also been talk that the Magic — picking sixth — are high on Bamba and won’t let him drop past their slot.
The Celtics have the No. 27 pick, but they have multiple assets on hand that could help them move into the top five of the draft, where the Grizzlies (No. 4) and Mavericks (No. 5) have made it clear they’re willing to make a deal.
It’s almost certain that the Celtics would not move rookie forward Jayson Tatum, who just wrapped up the postseason as the team’s leading scorer, at 18.5 points per game. Less certain, though, is what Boston might do with point guard Terry Rozier (16.5 points, 5.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game in the playoffs) or swingman Jaylen Brown (18.0 points per game in the playoffs).
In order to move into the top five of the draft, the Celtics would likely have to give up either Rozier or Brown — Dallas (Dennis Smith Jr.) and Memphis (Mike Conley) already have point guards, and would almost certainly prefer Brown.
And Boston probably would have to include this year’s draft pick, as well as at least one pick next year, when the Celtics own Sacramento’s pick (protected for the first overall pick) as well as Memphis’ pick (top-eight protected).
But the Celtics have a near-complete roster. A rim protector like Bamba — who has also shown flashes of offensive improvement heading into the draft — could be a solid finishing touch."
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-draft-2018-trade-rumors-celtics-news-mo-bamba-terry-rozier-jaylen-brown/133p7iqhqcizdzpnevero3fsg?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Ainge and Stevens don't seem to put as much stock in rim protection as in defensive switchability. That might have been determined by available personnel to date, but it seems to me as likely as not that Ainge and Stevens would find Bamba too one-dimensional for their model.