Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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God I hope so. He has has a few nice games this season. But some nights he looks like he doesn't belong in the NBA, and I'm a fan.
I think he needs some time off. He's had to spend a ton of energy, both physical and mental, over the last 16 months to get back to where he is now. I'm anxious to see how he does post-ASB.
There have been close to zero nights when he looks like he doesn't belong. He looks like a 5 million dollar a year player, sure - but even his non-good days look better than Yabusele or Semi or Nader or Wannamaker or...
This isn’t new though. Even before Hayward came to Boston he’d have those type of games every 3-4 weeks. Single digit scoring nights when he looked like crap on 3-15 shooting aren’t new to Hayward. He’s talked about sometimes around here like he was putting up consistent LeBron-level offensive numbers which wasn’t the case.
Yeah--it looks like the 3 seasons before he came to Boston he had 18 games scoring 0-9 points, so maybe one every dozen or games. Quite obviously he's had more of them this year, but that's to be expected.
I started looking around his page and a few things stick out:
--in games where he plays more than 30 minutes his TS% is .587 with an ORTG of 118. It's .509 and 105 when he plays under that. So, clearly he seems to be a player that needs those minutes to get into flow or whatever, but that has to be balanced against team depth and what he's dealing with.
--he's averaging just a shade under his career high in assists/36 and is at a career high in rebounds/36 and way over his career averages in both, so he's adjusted his game to help in other ways.
--his three point percentage being down about 4% from Utah could be half-season fluke or tied into the Rozier Effect. Or both.
--Here's the biggest takeaway, which we've all seen--his aggressiveness only shows in flashes. Compared to his last season at Utah, his at the rim shooting % has dropped from 69.1% to 59.7% and his percentage of shots at the rim has decreased from 25% to 20%. Also this season he's being assisted on nearly 75% of his shots at the rim, in 16/17 in Utah it was only 60%. Aggressiveness, or lack thereof. Those 2 things (fewer shots at rim and making them less often) account for about 3.5 points/game.
I started looking around his page and a few things stick out:
--in games where he plays more than 30 minutes his TS% is .587 with an ORTG of 118. It's .509 and 105 when he plays under that. So, clearly he seems to be a player that needs those minutes to get into flow or whatever, but that has to be balanced against team depth and what he's dealing with.
--he's averaging just a shade under his career high in assists/36 and is at a career high in rebounds/36 and way over his career averages in both, so he's adjusted his game to help in other ways.
--his three point percentage being down about 4% from Utah could be half-season fluke or tied into the Rozier Effect. Or both.
--Here's the biggest takeaway, which we've all seen--his aggressiveness only shows in flashes. Compared to his last season at Utah, his at the rim shooting % has dropped from 69.1% to 59.7% and his percentage of shots at the rim has decreased from 25% to 20%. Also this season he's being assisted on nearly 75% of his shots at the rim, in 16/17 in Utah it was only 60%. Aggressiveness, or lack thereof. Those 2 things (fewer shots at rim and making them less often) account for about 3.5 points/game.
Whenever I see a stat such as this my first reaction is that this is due to the player getting more minutes due to him having it that night.......rather than him having that night due to him getting more minutes.
If looked at logically this all makes sense. His numbers at the rim reflect his reduction of physical ability and awareness of this fact while his assist numbers are a direct result of his role in Utah as primary initiator in PNR and iso at end of shot clock in their half court heavy sets.
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Could be, but Stevens seems pretty set in his rotations, so I don't know. It could also have been nights where they were sitting a guy or 2 and he knew he was getting extended minutes. It's similar to when I see a stat during a broadcast that says something like a team shoots .491 in wins and only .436 in losses. Yeah, no kidding. That's why those are losses.
The at the rim thing is the key I think.
We're sitting both Kyrie AND Horford tonight? I realize it's the Cavs, but we also don't want to lose the game, right?
IMO, this stat shows that GH plays more in blowouts against inferior teams. I don't think it shows any causation between minutes Nd production.
GH used to dunk. A lot. Like top 10 of all non-centers. https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/1/18/18188715/gordon-hayward-doesnt-need-his-peak-athleticism-to-be-effective-injury-boston-celtics
That's the difference in his rim finishing #s I would guess
I think it's just too soon to tell. There's just no good reason to think that Hayward is as far back as he will ever get; it's just too soon for that.
Hill played for a while on an injured ankle and until it broke and then came back too fast. He was a victim of not getting good medical advice directly. See here: https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/grant-hill-says-detroit-orlando-mismanaged-injuries-042711
Let's hope this is not GH's story.
Was pretty encouraged by Wanamaker. He looks weirdly stiff on defense, but moves his feet well. On offense, he seems like a great fit along Jaylen and Hayward on a 2nd unit, just because he can bring the ball up the floor, space from 3, and initiate the offense. I'd be totally fine rolling in the playoffs with him, Kyrie, and Smart as the ball-handlers if they can find a way to move Terry for some value.
Same. Predictions of doom and gloom with him getting real minutes were unfounded.
If I'm known for anything in this subforum, it's bitching about Rozier, so caveats galore here. But I see a limited guy in Wanamaker who clearly doesn't approach Terry's ceiling by a longshot, yet somehow the offense and defense seems to hold together fine when he's on the floor. Frankly I like him better as a backup and Rozier obviously as a starter.
It works because Stevens likes his playmakers/initiators off the ball to start sets. We saw this a lot with IT, and it's really amped up now with Kyrie. In a 2nd unit context, they like to do a lot to get Brown the ball on the move, or have Hayward run into a pnr.
In that context, all that your backup PG really needs to do is bring the ball up, space the floor, and play good defense. Rozier can obviously do more than that, but we've all seen how that hurts the overall flow of the offense, since Hayward and Jaylen are really the guys who should be initiating offense on that unit.
Agreed. While he has nowhere near the ceiling that Terry does, it also seems like he comes with a lot less volatility. On a second unit with Hayward and Jaylen able to handle the bulk of the playmaking opportunities, I think Wanamaker would be fine. Let’s also keep in mind that a playoff rotation in a world where Rozier is traded probably goes 8 deep with Smart/Hayward splitting the ball-handling duties for the 10ish minutes Kyrie isn’t on the court.
Strangely enough, I found myself more frustrated when Wanamaker seemed to be too passive at times. There were at least a couple instances where he passed up decent looks from 3 to force passes inside, leading to a couple turnovers. That feels like something that can work itself out with a bit more regular playing time.
Weren't people saying about a month ago that Wanamaker would be lucky to be a decent 14th guy on the bench?
He looks like a pretty interesting PG to me. Obviously struggles with small, quicker guards that Larkin guarded well last year but on the upside, he gives them some more size on switches and I think he's a better distributor than Larkin. Plus hitting .500 from 3P land (26 attempts) is a pretty good bonus.
We said last year that there's definitely a value in filling a bench with older professionals. Stevens recently called Wanamaker a "Pro's Pro" and that he'll "always be ready." https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/01/24/celtics-notebook-brad-wanamaker-provides-a-lift/
He's a good addition.
I was a Wanamaker skeptic and while I agree he has looked good in spurts, its mostly been against second units of mediocre and bad teams. I could be wrong here but I think he would be exposed pretty quickly, especially on defense, against shorter rotations in the playoffs. Rozier, for all of his flaws, can create his own shot, rebound well and is a better, if inconsistent, defender.
The Rozier fit/chemistry issues people here are discussing are concerns. However I am simply not comfortable with the idea of dealing Rozier and having Wanamaker replace him, especially against good teams.
The Rozier fit/chemistry issues people here are discussing are concerns. However I am simply not comfortable with the idea of dealing Rozier and having Wanamaker replace him, especially against good teams.
Another player I think of is Raef LaFrentz who was never close to the same athletically post-knee injury as he was during his early years in Denver. The difference here is that Hayward has better overall skills than Raef did but a similar drop off wouldn’t be unexpected. In Utah, Hayward was a backend All-Star similar to what Horford has been......I don’t expect a return to that level but he can still be a good player.
Agree with all of this. Comparing NBA playoff level intensity with the Cleveland Cavaliers second unit of a late-January game is pretty shortsighted. I’m sure Wanamaker would be fine for a couple first half spot minutes here and there if there were foul trouble but no way am I wanting him to play regular playoff rotation minutes if i have Championship aspirations.
Before their respective injuries, Paul George and Gordon Hayward were pretty damn close to the same player. George was younger and more athletic, but they were similar players
PER 36
Paul George 36% 3PT , 83% FT, 6.9 REBS, 3.3 AST, 17.4 PTS
Gordon Hayward 37% 3PT, 82% FT, 3.9 AST, 18.0 PTS
PER 36
Paul George 36% 3PT , 83% FT, 6.9 REBS, 3.3 AST, 17.4 PTS
Gordon Hayward 37% 3PT, 82% FT, 3.9 AST, 18.0 PTS
Yeah, on the first part, there's nothing to be gleaned from just looking at numbers, since there could be a bunch of different reasons.
Regarding the at the rim things/dunks--that makes sense. I looked at the numbers before and they're obviously way down. So the story is if that's just part of the process and it comes back or if it won't.
I wonder, with the downtime over the ASB, if there's a reevaluation. That they do some checks and if things check out, more plays are opened up to him. As your link says, he's part of our best lineup, and is a high IQ player. Be interesting to see if anything changes after everyone gets a few days off.
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Absent an injury, why does anyone think Wanamaker would play meaningful minutes in the playoffs?
Assume Baynes plays 18 and Al is capped at 30 to keep him fresh. That leaves just under 32 minutes a game for Kyrie, Smart, Tatum, MaMo, GH, and Jaylen. Kyrie likely plays 36-38 minutes a game in the playoffs, so you really only need Smart or Hayward to bring the ball up for 10-12 minutes a game.
I get the injury insurance argument for keeping Terry (assuming there is even a trade with some value out there), but does anyone really think this is a finals team if he gets hurt? YMMV, but I think Milwaukee and Toronto are both better than last year’s Cavs, and I can’t imagine a Kyrie-less Celtics team getting past either...
Assume Baynes plays 18 and Al is capped at 30 to keep him fresh. That leaves just under 32 minutes a game for Kyrie, Smart, Tatum, MaMo, GH, and Jaylen. Kyrie likely plays 36-38 minutes a game in the playoffs, so you really only need Smart or Hayward to bring the ball up for 10-12 minutes a game.
I get the injury insurance argument for keeping Terry (assuming there is even a trade with some value out there), but does anyone really think this is a finals team if he gets hurt? YMMV, but I think Milwaukee and Toronto are both better than last year’s Cavs, and I can’t imagine a Kyrie-less Celtics team getting past either...
If, and I know it's easier said than done, he was able to get his 3pt percentage up to 40%, he'd be a dangerous man. He's a such a good ball handler that having to guard him more closely at the 3 pt line would be a nice enhancement to his drive and dish skills.
I'm just unsure why anything we are seeing now is unexpected--or maybe that's not the right word, but I think you know what I mean. Wasn't it always thought that it would take the better part of the season for him to get close to being back at the very least? Like, that was the best case?
I think they fact that he hasn't really had any issues where he's needed to shut it down for a week, or had to be put back on any minutes restriction is encouraging.
I think they fact that he hasn't really had any issues where he's needed to shut it down for a week, or had to be put back on any minutes restriction is encouraging.
I've seen Hayward in person a half dozen times. Very seldom is he playing offense intuitively. It's catch, think, make a move, usually a lot slower than it needs to be made. When he catches and shoots, he looks great. This tentativeness and lack of explosiveness has made him into an offensive player who needs to be set up to score. Some of it might be system based, but 51% of his buckets were assisted his last season in Utah, and 69% of them are assisted in Boston.
Last night against the Cavs, he was plodding around, heavy legged. Hopefully, he can come back stronger after getting some time off for the all star break.
Last night against the Cavs, he was plodding around, heavy legged. Hopefully, he can come back stronger after getting some time off for the all star break.
It's important to remember that Hayward had a surgical procedure last spring that cost him most of his summer rehab routine. So we likely won't know the long term outcome until next season. There have been times he's looked great (Dallas, for example), so I think it's still way too early to write him off. And he is in a challenging roster situation to some extent as well.
I warned two years ago about being careful with expectations for Hayward and this is an example of what I was referring to in this case with his shooting. Over his last 4 years in Utah covering over 1,000 3-point attempts, Hayward shot it at 35.6%...…...which is the same as Terry Rozier is shooting it at and just below Marcus Smart this year. He was a real good player for Utah with a system that catered to him......he was never a great NBA player. When I hear people talk about his return to greatness I kinda cringe because that isn't ever happening even if he does need this first year back to return to form.
Yeah, he was never close to Grant Hill as a player. He was a fringe Max guy. Hopefully he gets back to that point.
Grant Hill is a HOF'er. There are very few players as versatile and as good as him. Just because he managed to have a career derailed by injuries does in no way mean there should be any comparison to him and Hayward
The reason a lot was expected from Hayward is because his numbers kept getting better and better in Utah. In his free agent year, he averaged 22/5/4 and shot almost 40% from 3. At the time he signed, I don't think it was very hard to imagine that playing under a coach who knows his strengths/weaknesses more than anyone and on a better team that he would put up similar numbers. Once Kyrie came into the mix, everyone should have thought that his scoring numbers would be down because of Kyrie. Instead of 22 a game, he may only score 15-17 but be very efficient because of less touches. Hayward's ceiling is All-Star level player but he's not a franchise guy and never was.
Yeah, I'm not sure anyone here thought he was a HOF'er. And anyone that did is being just as unrealistic as those that watch him now and think he's back as far as he's gonna get.
Placing extra emphasis on ones contract year is oftentimes fools gold due to the extra motivation during that window. We’re seeing that right now with MaMo and I was wary of a little bit of this with Hayward (although not a lot since he was very good the previous years). Post-injury and with a lower usage here moving forward I can’t envision him reaching All-Star level again so I have his ceiling a little lower than that. The 15-17 ppg is in the range I him to reach next year and beyond.
Your free agent year concerns would be validated with Hayward except his PPG increased every year of his career in Utah.
His PPG increase was consistent with his increased Usage and role in the offense once Gobert replaces Kanter along with Burke having a lesser role in the Snyder offense.
Thanks for posting that. One thing I noticed was that he looks stronger in the upper body in that 16-17 video, which is surprising considering how much time he's had to work on that while rehabbing his ankle. He just seems a little frail right now.
Maybe a little FA-juice in a contract year? One of the benefit is an improved hand-eye coordination to improve shooting as well as explosion which is missing in his game. I’m not sayin.....
Did you not think he'd have similar usage rates and a similar role in Brad's system?
No not at all. The entire offense ran through Hayward as the defacto PG much of the time when G.Hill was on the floor with the ball back in Hayward’s hands when the offense would break down against the shot clock. In Boston, the ball would primarily be in Kyrie’s hands with the other sets initiated by Horford, Hayward, Tatum, or Jaylen.