Celtics in 18-19

benhogan

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Baynes and Horford played 15 offensive plays together in the 3rd and 4th Quarter of a tight game last night.

The Celtics scored on 11 of those 15 possessions.

+11 as a tandem, not bad considering Al was a -1 last night.
 
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lovegtm

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Baynes and Horford played 15 offensive plays together in the 3rd and 4th Quarter of a tight game last night.

The Celtics scored on 11 of those 15 possessions.
I mean, if that holds up, I'm happy to eat my words. And as I said, if you're going to play both, Memphis is definitely the team to do it against.

What I don't get is why you're so eager to go Baynes+Horford against teams playing smaller 4s, rather than just upping Baynes' regular season minutes and reducing Al's? Particularly given the minutes crunch and development issues on the wing?
 

benhogan

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I mean, if that holds up, I'm happy to eat my words. And as I said, if you're going to play both, Memphis is definitely the team to do it against.

What I don't get is why you're so eager to go Baynes+Horford against teams playing smaller 4s, rather than just upping Baynes' regular season minutes and reducing Al's? Particularly given the minutes crunch and development issues on the wing?
Al can dominate smaller 4s on the block or on the perimeter. I also think Al is a much, much better defensive 4 then 5. Name me a 4 Al can't guard? I believe HRB used Wilson Chandler as a matchup problem for Al earlier this year. I don't agree.

BUT we both agree 32yr old Al playing the 5 is taxing, right? Less playing the 5 means a healthier Al and he'll regain some lateral movement. Al and Baynes will do a better job together protecting the rim and force the opponent to become a jump shooting team.

I also like Tatum, Brown matching up against smaller wings. Its a knock on effect throughout the lineup. The player that should ultimately be penalized minutes for Baynes is Terry Rozier.
 

InstaFace

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I mean, if that holds up, I'm happy to eat my words. And as I said, if you're going to play both, Memphis is definitely the team to do it against.

What I don't get is why you're so eager to go Baynes+Horford against teams playing smaller 4s, rather than just upping Baynes' regular season minutes and reducing Al's? Particularly given the minutes crunch and development issues on the wing?
They went to Baynes + Horford when Memphis had both Gasol and Jackson on the floor, with Horford covering Jackson primarily. So in a sense it was matchup dependent, but lots of teams have a big wing in the Jackson category. I think it'd work in plenty of not-that-unusual situations.

I can't be the only one who saw that lineup, though, and immediately though of BenHogan :)
 

lovegtm

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They went to Baynes + Horford when Memphis had both Gasol and Jackson on the floor, with Horford covering Jackson primarily. So in a sense it was matchup dependent, but lots of teams have a big wing in the Jackson category. I think it'd work in plenty of not-that-unusual situations.

I can't be the only one who saw that lineup, though, and immediately though of BenHogan :)
Hahaha, yes, I instantly thought of him. Gotta hand it to our man for keeping things on-brand.

Not to nitpick, but Jackson is huge & physical for a modern 4. His future is at the 5 when Gasol eventually fades on out to the big siesta in the sky.
 

Eddie Jurak

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There's value in matching Al against certain 5s because he can play on the perimeter, allowing him to either pull his man out of the paint or shoot open threes from the top of the key.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I can't be the only one who saw that lineup, though, and immediately though of BenHogan :)
I mean, check his tagline. That is some of the best modding this site has ever seen and we generally have very good Doping here (not kissing their asses because I know it doesn't mean anything. Just stating facts).
 

benhogan

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I mean, check his tagline. That is some of the best modding this site has ever seen and we generally have very good Doping here (not kissing their asses because I know it doesn't mean anything. Just stating facts).
In fairness, I requested the Mods give me that handle.

AND its no wonder you like the tagline, since you came up with it.
You're the best DeJesus, you crack me up
 
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amarshal2

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Al wasn’t great on a back to back again. He was (-6) on the night. Slightly slow on defense. Not great. Before tonight Al was (-28.3) rating on 0 days rest this season (small sample). He’s +6, +8, +22 on 1, 2, 3+ days rest, respectively. If this doesn’t sort itself out they need to consider benchubg or a big minutes limit on the 2nd of a back to back.

Baynes +9 in 15 mins. He clearly needs to play more in these situations.
 
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benhogan

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Al wasn’t great on a back to back again. He was (-6) on the night. Slightly slow on defense. Not great. Before tonight Al was (-28.3) rating on 0 days rest this season (small sample). He’s +6, +8, +22 on 1, 2, 3+ days rest, respectively. If this doesn’t sort itself out they need to consider benchubg or a big minutes limit on the 2nd of a back to back.

Baynes +9 in 15 mins. He clearly needs to play more in these situations.
Couldn't agree more...
Al also played every minute with a very efficient Kyrie, who absolutely carried that first unit last night. The only thing worse then Horford's stats on back-to-backs this season is how he has looked. Completely off balance, how many times did he travel last night? An airball on a solo layup. Brad playing a banged-up Al on a road back-to-back for 28mins, when he clearly didn't have it, with five Centers on a 14 man roster is beyond bazaar.

Back-to-backs is the perfect opportunity to give minutes to our long bench and rest our starters. Jaylen needs to play big minutes along with Rozier, Baynes, Theis, Semi...even Yabu, TL and Wannamaker. Why not give the unit that played well in Q4 in the Nets game on Monday a shot?
 

lovegtm

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Couldn't agree more...
Al also played every minute with a very efficient Kyrie, who absolutely carried that first unit last night. The only thing worse then Horford's stats on back-to-backs this season is how he has looked. Completely off balance, how many times did he travel last night? An airball on a solo layup. Brad playing a banged-up Al on a road back-to-back for 28mins, when he clearly didn't have it, with five Centers on a 14 man roster is beyond bazaar.

Back-to-backs is the perfect opportunity to give minutes to our long bench and rest our starters. Jaylen needs to play big minutes along with Rozier, Baynes, Theis, Semi...even Yabu, TL and Wannamaker. Why not give the unit that played well in Q4 in the Nets game on Monday a shot?
I honestly don't know. It seems insanely obvious, and Brad was clearly aware of the need to preserve Horford last year. Playing Baynes 16 minutes and Horford 28 on a b2b is ridiculous, especially when Horford looks like he did. I try to give Brad the benefit of the doubt normally, but I can't find a way that this makes sense, in either a regular or post-season context.
 

amarshal2

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My best guess has been that he’s trying to build up Al’s stamina. There’s this weird media axiom in pro sports that players get stronger by resting more. But there’s a balance. You don’t prepare for a marathon by sitting on a couch.
 

Jimbodandy

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I honestly don't know. It seems insanely obvious, and Brad was clearly aware of the need to preserve Horford last year. Playing Baynes 16 minutes and Horford 28 on a b2b is ridiculous, especially when Horford looks like he did. I try to give Brad the benefit of the doubt normally, but I can't find a way that this makes sense, in either a regular or post-season context.
Obviously he sees what we see. Either they're powering through this injury, or they think that one end of the floor or both would be so adversely affected by his absence that running old, beat-up Al out there is better than not.

I suspect that it's about his offensive facilitation. He makes a lot of good basketball plays on that end, even if he is going to step on his own dick a couple of times on a B2B.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My best guess has been that he’s trying to build up Al’s stamina. There’s this weird media axiom in pro sports that players get stronger by resting more. But there’s a balance. You don’t prepare for a marathon by sitting on a couch.
This is where I stand as well. I feel many people watch Horford’s awkward gait and associate with him laboring or being injured. He’s “looked” old for many years now but his game hasn’t really changed sans the addition of a 3-point shot.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Obviously he sees what we see.
This is patently false. If Stevens saw what SoSH sees and adjusted accordingly, the C's would have won several more championships already and would be undefeated this season by leading each game wire-to-wire and winning routinely by 20 points!
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Hey @benhogan. you know who has the highest net rating on the Cs? You guessed it at 13.4 pts per 100 possessions. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2019/01/20/when-aron-baynes-plays-celtics-defense-gets-downright-stingy/FzqKsJTjg9ZfBq1lAVDHyL/story.html

Baynes is so good that I think he and Kyrie should take on the league 2 on 5.
+1 Wade.
Ha. Apologies folks if I banged the Aron Baynes drum too loud. Hopefully, I haven't been too obnoxious about it (but clearly I've been). I'm a huge fan of role players that are underappreciated and add value to team play, Baynes is my new Koji...

Obviously, Kyrie is the player that stirs the drink here, just give me 20-25mpg of Baynes and I'll pipe down :redwine:
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is where I stand as well. I feel many people watch Horford’s awkward gait and associate with him laboring or being injured. He’s “looked” old for many years now but his game hasn’t really changed sans the addition of a 3-point shot.
If he decides to opt out, I hope we let him walk. I think he'll be fine next year but I want no part of him after that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If he decides to opt out, I hope we let him walk. I think he'll be fine next year but I want no part of him after that.
What makes you feel this way? Health is always the biggest factor with Horford (or most any player). I’ve always held the belief that Horford’s “old man” game would age very well deep into his mid-30’s. Despite the criticism he has taken this year his numbers across the board as in line with what they’ve been as a Celtic while posting a career-high TS%.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What makes you feel this way? Health is always the biggest factor with Horford (or most any player). I’ve always held the belief that Horford’s “old man” game would age very well deep into his mid-30’s. Despite the criticism he has taken this year his numbers across the board as in line with what they’ve been as a Celtic while posting a career-high TS%.
He'll be 34 at the end of next season. How deep into his mid 30's do you see him going? People already want to limit his minutes now and it will just get worse with age.

A lot if it depends on the kind of deal he is asking for too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He'll be 34 at the end of next season. How deep into his mid 30's do you see him going? People already want to limit his minutes now and it will just get worse with age.

A lot if it depends on the kind of deal he is asking for too.
Barring injury I expect Horford to continue being effective in his current through age 36 anyway. I know SoSH posters want him playing less minutes I disageee wittkhoit seeing any basis for it once he’s medically cleared for no restrictions. Now if there is evidence of a degenerative injury situation at the time an extension comes up that’s a different scenario.
 

mauf

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Assuming Kyrie re-signs, the C’s won’t be under the cap anytime soon. Therefore, any extension that Danny gives Al will only affect future flexibility insofar as it pushes the C’s over whatever all-in limit on total spending (payroll + luxury tax) that ownership sets. I think we can safely assume that such a limit exists, but none of us knows what it is; therefore, it’s hard to assess the wisdom of extending Al if he opts out this summer (which I expect he will).

A 3-4 year deal at a lower AAV would actually ease the club’s near-term fiscal pressures by lowering the 2019-20 luxury tax bill, and might enable the C’s to take back salary in a future trade. Obviously, Danny’s going to let Al walk before he signs him to an extension that would preclude re-signing Tatum when the time comes, but assuming he doesn’t do something that stupid, an extension for Al might well be in the C’s best interest even if it’s an overpay based on any reasonable projection of Al’s future performance.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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In other news, since starting the first 20 games of the season as a .500 team, the C's have reeled off a 19-8 record. Their winning percentage over the past 27 games would translate to a 57 win season which is close to many pre-season predictions.
 

Deathofthebambino

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In other news, since starting the first 20 games of the season as a .500 team, the C's have reeled off a 19-8 record. Their winning percentage over the past 27 games would translate to a 57 win season which is close to many pre-season predictions.
We can chop this up a million ways though, can't we? They're 11-8 in their last 19 games. Is that not more instructive than including an 8 game winning streak that preceded it? They've also played 15 games at home vs. 12 on the road during those 27 games, and are 13-2 at home and 6-6 on the road, with no wins against any teams on the road with a .500 record. In fact, the Atlanta win the other night was their 2nd road win since December 12th.

That said, two weeks ago, everyone said the Patriots were a great home team and a shitty road team too, and they're going to the Super Bowl. Like I said in the game thread, it was nice to be coming home off of a win on the road and playing at home, as that hadn't happened in quite some time. If they can figure out a way to beat the Warriors this week, and run the table at home, they can turn this little 3 game winning streak into a 7-8 game streak pretty quickly, and if they can get by the Thunder on the road, it could hit double digits. That's where I want to see this team heading at this point in the season. Aside from the Warriors, there really isn't any reason they should lose any of their next 5 games. Hopefully, they're turning the corner.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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We can chop this up a million ways though, can't we? They're 11-8 in their last 19 games. Is that not more instructive than including an 8 game winning streak that preceded it? They've also played 15 games at home vs. 12 on the road during those 27 games, and are 13-2 at home and 6-6 on the road, with no wins against any teams on the road with a .500 record. In fact, the Atlanta win the other night was their 2nd road win since December 12th.

That said, two weeks ago, everyone said the Patriots were a great home team and a shitty road team too, and they're going to the Super Bowl. Like I said in the game thread, it was nice to be coming home off of a win on the road and playing at home, as that hadn't happened in quite some time. If they can figure out a way to beat the Warriors this week, and run the table at home, they can turn this little 3 game winning streak into a 7-8 game streak pretty quickly, and if they can get by the Thunder on the road, it could hit double digits. That's where I want to see this team heading at this point in the season. Aside from the Warriors, there really isn't any reason they should lose any of their next 5 games. Hopefully, they're turning the corner.
I sliced it by their first 20 games just because they ended up at 10-10 and C's fans/pundits were understandably frustrated.

Win totals overall don't really mean much because even the winningest teams can suffer during the playoffs if they are hit with injuries or simply a bad match-up. People can draw whatever conclusions they want from the Cs this season and it really does depend on how you slice the data. I tend to prefer larger sample sizes but others like to fixate on single game outcomes. HRB will continue to remind us that most of their wins have come against teams that are struggling and that has merit too.

I was simply pointing out that after their par start, they have won more than they have lost and, in aggregate, are now on a pace to match what most models and pundits predicted for them though they likely won't reach most projected win totals. In the end, it means absolutely nothing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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We can chop this up a million ways though, can't we? They're 11-8 in their last 19 games. Is that not more instructive than including an 8 game winning streak that preceded it? They've also played 15 games at home vs. 12 on the road during those 27 games, and are 13-2 at home and 6-6 on the road, with no wins against any teams on the road with a .500 record. In fact, the Atlanta win the other night was their 2nd road win since December 12th.

That said, two weeks ago, everyone said the Patriots were a great home team and a shitty road team too, and they're going to the Super Bowl. Like I said in the game thread, it was nice to be coming home off of a win on the road and playing at home, as that hadn't happened in quite some time. If they can figure out a way to beat the Warriors this week, and run the table at home, they can turn this little 3 game winning streak into a 7-8 game streak pretty quickly, and if they can get by the Thunder on the road, it could hit double digits. That's where I want to see this team heading at this point in the season. Aside from the Warriors, there really isn't any reason they should lose any of their next 5 games. Hopefully, they're turning the corner.

They should beat Charlotte and Brooklyn but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost one of those games. They are two decent teams and both would be in the playoffs if the season ended now. Brooklyn is 8-2 over their last 10 and have been playing very well of late.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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They should beat Charlotte and Brooklyn but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost one of those games. They are two decent teams and both would be in the playoffs if the season ended now. Brooklyn is 8-2 over their last 10 and have been playing very well of late.
I feel safe in saying that its near impossible to predict how this current Celtic team will do against virtually any team in the league. They may have the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any team in the NBA right now.
 

Deathofthebambino

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They should beat Charlotte and Brooklyn but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost one of those games. They are two decent teams and both would be in the playoffs if the season ended now. Brooklyn is 8-2 over their last 10 and have been playing very well of late.
I guess that's kind of the problem though. Right now, the C's are the 5 seed. If they don't improve that, they most likely don't get court home court advantage in any round of the playoffs. Brooklyn is rolling a bit, but the C's just beat them by 21 here less than 2 weeks ago, and the Hornets are dreadful on the road (6-16). I realize we can't expect the C's to win every night, or against every team that isn't as good as they are, but we're into the second half of the season now. We have to win the games we "should" win. There can't be any more excuses as far as I'm concerned, especially when you consider the C's are healthy right now.

Would I be shocked if they lose one of those games? Absolutely not. But to me, that's the issue. We should be at a point where it's shocking if a fully healthy Celtics team loses to the Nets or Hornets on their home court.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I guess that's kind of the problem though. Right now, the C's are the 5 seed. If they don't improve that, they most likely don't get court home court advantage in any round of the playoffs. Brooklyn is rolling a bit, but the C's just beat them by 21 here less than 2 weeks ago, and the Hornets are dreadful on the road (6-16). I realize we can't expect the C's to win every night, or against every team that isn't as good as they are, but we're into the second half of the season now. We have to win the games we "should" win. There can't be any more excuses as far as I'm concerned, especially when you consider the C's are healthy right now.

Would I be shocked if they lose one of those games? Absolutely not. But to me, that's the issue. We should be at a point where it's shocking if a fully healthy Celtics team loses to the Nets or Hornets on their home court.
I get that but part of the reason why is the East is considerably better this year. For the last decade or even longer, 50 wins in the east would get you the 3 seed. This season, 5 teams could win 50+ games.

I'm not entirely convinced the Pacers are as good as their record, but they might very well be. This year, the difference between the 3 and 4 seed is huge.
 

DJnVa

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I guess that's kind of the problem though. Right now, the C's are the 5 seed. If they don't improve that, they most likely don't get court home court advantage in any round of the playoffs. Brooklyn is rolling a bit, but the C's just beat them by 21 here less than 2 weeks ago, and the Hornets are dreadful on the road (6-16). I realize we can't expect the C's to win every night, or against every team that isn't as good as they are, but we're into the second half of the season now. We have to win the games we "should" win. There can't be any more excuses as far as I'm concerned, especially when you consider the C's are healthy right now..
Philly is playing well tonight, but their next 9 or 10 games are against teams over .500. If we play well, there's a chance to make up some ground.
 

Eddie Jurak

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We can chop this up a million ways though, can't we? They're 11-8 in their last 19 games. Is that not more instructive than including an 8 game winning streak that preceded it? They've also played 15 games at home vs. 12 on the road during those 27 games, and are 13-2 at home and 6-6 on the road, with no wins against any teams on the road with a .500 record. In fact, the Atlanta win the other night was their 2nd road win since December 12th.
To my eye, this team doesn't look like a mediocre team. They tend to look great or terrible, often within the same game. I don't know whether that is actually true or just seems true, but to the extent it is an actual thing, I think it represents the potential to improve. They may not, of course, but I would bet on them being notably better over the rest of the season than they have been to date. And the #3 seed is well within striking distance if they do improve.
 

Cesar Crespo

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D'Angelo Russell is averaging 24.8 over his last 11 and that includes a 10 and 5 point performance. Shooting .505/.432/.947 over that time.

Would anyone be surprised if he ended up better than Ingram and Ball?

edit: Wrong thread. reposting on nba thread.
 
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nighthob

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D'Angelo Russell is averaging 24.8 over his last 11 and that includes a 10 and 5 point performance. Shooting .505/.432/.947 over that time.

Would anyone be surprised if he ended up better than Ingram and Ball?
I’ve soured greatly on Ingram, so it wouldn’t shock me in the least if DAR ended up being the better player.
 

mauf

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If they can figure out a way to beat the Warriors this week, and run the table at home, they can turn this little 3 game winning streak into a 7-8 game streak pretty quickly, and if they can get by the Thunder on the road, it could hit double digits. That's where I want to see this team heading at this point in the season. Aside from the Warriors, there really isn't any reason they should lose any of their next 5 games. Hopefully, they're turning the corner.
Expanding on this, 8 of the 11 games that remain before the ASB are at home, and 2 of the 3 roadies are against the Knicks and Cavs. Oh, and they don’t have another back-to-back until Feb. 12-13, immediately prior to the break. It’s definitely a favorable stretch.
 

DJnVa

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Expanding on this, 8 of the 11 games that remain before the ASB are at home, and 2 of the 3 roadies are against the Knicks and Cavs. Oh, and they don’t have another back-to-back until Feb. 12-13, immediately prior to the break. It’s definitely a favorable stretch.
Couple that with the Sixers (we're 1 back in loss column): Spurs, @Denver, @LAL, @Warriors, @Kings, Raptors, Denver, LAL, Celtics

and the Pacers play the Raptors and Warriors in next few days.
 

DJnVa

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We should get plenty of TimeLord tonight...this game shouldn't be close.
 

mauf

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Couple that with the Sixers (we're 1 back in loss column): Spurs, @Denver, @LAL, @Warriors, @Kings, Raptors, Denver, LAL, Celtics

and the Pacers play the Raptors and Warriors in next few days.
The Sixers are entering a tough stretch of their schedule, but they are also hitting their stride — they’re 8-3 and have outscored opponents by 10.0 PPG in the New Year, including lopsided wins over the Pacers and Rockets in the past week.