Celtics in 18-19

Jimbodandy

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Hayward, Brown, Rozier and a couple of defense first guys should be GREAT. That it hasn't has been an issue. The starters can get a first quarter lead every game, but if this unit pisses it away, it puts a lot more stress on the starters to lock up a lead a second time to start the second half, and then close out, or overcome a lead, in the fourth.
Agreed. And I think you accurately called out Rozier's lack of commitment on defense as a part of that. I think that having two 6'9" bigs with short arms has been a real factor as well, but at least this should get better as AB and TL come back.
 

Jimbodandy

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p.s., no idea what Theis and Yabusele measured for reach, but they both seem to lack length and certainly have gotten eaten up by everyone 6'10" or greater recently.
 

bosox79

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To be clear re Jaylen: I think he'll stay on the 2nd unit for awhile because he's playing well. He's improving faster in shot creation and playmaking than Tatum, which is a surprise after his start to the year, so they'll want to let him feature that and develop it as much as possible.
I'm curious why you think he's improving faster than Tatum in playmaking? I haven't seen much improvement from either in that category. At least not consistent.
 

lovegtm

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I'm curious why you think he's improving faster than Tatum in playmaking? I haven't seen much improvement from either in that category. At least not consistent.
I mean, he's not great, but he's been making an effort to look for passes a lot more on drives, and has started to execute better, gradually. Tatum is completely head-down dribbling right now.
 

ifmanis5

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Kyrie will be back tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if Jaylen and Hayward continue playing with confidence or not.

Boston Celtics‏Verified account @celtics 2m2 minutes ago
#NEBHInjuryReport update Kyrie Irving (eye) and Marcus Morris (neck) we’re both full participants in practice today. Brad Stevens says, “Every indication is that [Kyrie] will play” tomorrow, and Morris’ availability will be based on how he feels.
 

bosox79

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If the Cs had a steady vet bench PG in Rozier's spot, the bench would have been a lot more of an asset. If a team has Hayward and Brown coming off the pine, a max guy and a top three pick, they need to eat, and the PG that is on the court with them needs to understand that.

I'm a big Rozier fan, and loved his run last season, but he's been a problem this season. Besides being very unsettled at the offensive end, he consistently lapses on defense in key moments. As mentioned above, he's been better the last dozen games or so, but if he can't be consistent, he should be moved for a steadier hand. It will be difficult, because you can't match his salary with most available veterans.
Rozier is fine as 8th man off the bench and essentially the same player he was last year. People just want him to be more than that and he isn't. I agree the team would be better with a real, pass first PG in his place though. Rozier isn't a PG. He's mostly just a volume scorer and if his shot isn't falling, he's not offering much value. He's also a terrible fit in Boston alongside Kyrie and 5 other scorers.

He's a 6'1 guard with a career shooting % of .378/.356/.772. He's extremely limited.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah but he plays with his feet stapled to the ground so he plays much smaller than his length suggests.
My overall point was that the second unit was giving up rebounds and getting dominated near the rim with Al sitting down and TL/AB out. Theis brings stuff to the table, and Yabusele has been surprisingly ok a couple of times. But I think that a shortage of size and shot-threatening ability hasn't helped the second unit recently.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Rozier is fine as 8th man off the bench and essentially the same player he was last year. People just want him to be more than that and he isn't. I agree the team would be better with a real, pass first PG in his place though. Rozier isn't a PG. He's mostly just a volume scorer and if his shot isn't falling, he's not offering much value. He's also a terrible fit in Boston alongside Kyrie and 5 other scorers.

He's a 6'1 guard with a career shooting % of .378/.356/.772. He's extremely limited.
Rozier's splits suggest that no, he isn't fine off the bench or the same player as last year. We'd love for Rozier to be a computer game where we can plug his starting numbers into his bench minutes but it doesn't always work this way in real life. Rozier will be a starting PG wherever he signs next year for his play as a lead guard over the past two years and is going to be paid pretty handsomely. GM's recognize the predicament he's been in this season.

.525 TS%, 3.55 Ast/TO ratio, 110 ORtg as a starter
.483 TS%, 2.72 Ast/TO ratio, 101 ORtg as a reserve
 

lovegtm

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Rozier's splits suggest that no, he isn't fine off the bench or the same player as last year. We'd love for Rozier to be a computer game where we can plug his starting numbers into his bench minutes but it doesn't always work this way in real life. Rozier will be a starting PG wherever he signs next year for his play as a lead guard over the past two years and is going to be paid pretty handsomely. GM's recognize the predicament he's been in this season.

.525 TS%, 3.55 Ast/TO ratio, 110 ORtg as a starter
.483 TS%, 2.72 Ast/TO ratio, 101 ORtg as a reserve
I didn't realize his ORtg was that good as a starter. That's really solid, especially since he only starts when the team's best offensive player by far, Kyrie, is out.
 

bosox79

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Rozier's splits suggest that no, he isn't fine off the bench or the same player as last year. We'd love for Rozier to be a computer game where we can plug his starting numbers into his bench minutes but it doesn't always work this way in real life. Rozier will be a starting PG wherever he signs next year for his play as a lead guard over the past two years and is going to be paid pretty handsomely. GM's recognize the predicament he's been in this season.

.525 TS%, 3.55 Ast/TO ratio, 110 ORtg as a starter
.483 TS%, 2.72 Ast/TO ratio, 101 ORtg as a reserve
20 starts. Most of which was the 2 month period last year.
 

bosox79

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Correct. And?

Let me guess....small sample, right?
Extremely. His TS% last year as a starter was actually worse. .503 to .527. So his numbers are being inflated by his 4 starts this year where his TS% is .652 as a starter and .477 as a bench player.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, very small sample of mostly bad games skewed by just a couple of very good ones as a starter last year.
If this is how you feel what do you think his market will be this summer? I’ve got him at 4/$60m to run one of the several teams who need to upgrade the position.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Extremely. His TS% last year as a starter was actually worse. .503 to .527. So his numbers are being inflated by his 4 starts this year where his TS% is .652 as a starter and .477 as a bench player.
Which is what you’d expect when playing playoff defensive intensity. His increased numbers in Ast/TO ratio, scoring and rebounding were same as starter in the reg season.
 

The Needler

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Which is what you’d expect when playing playoff defensive intensity. His increased numbers in Ast/TO ratio, scoring and rebounding were same as starter in the reg season.
He started 16 games last season. He had two great games, the 30+ point games. In the other 14, he shot .330 from the floor. Those two games were the only ones in which he shot at least 50% from the floor, and he had 11 games where he shot less than 40%. The idea that he’s been some kind of consistent performer as a starter is not grounded in reality.
 

bosox79

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If you include the playoffs, that adds another 19 games to the sample. (Don't have his playoff numbers handy atm)
This if fair. His TS% in the playoffs in those 19 games was .531, his A:TO ratio was 4.95. ORtg of 115.

One thing he definitely doesn't do is turn the ball over.
 

bosox79

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He started 16 games last season. He had two great games, the 30+ point games. In the other 14, he shot .330 from the floor. Those two games were the only ones in which he shot at least 50% from the floor, and he had 11 games where he shot less than 40%. The idea that he’s been some kind of consistent performer as a starter is not grounded in reality.
Slightly more consistent in the playoffs, but not really. Here's the game log. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roziete01/gamelog/2018
 

lovegtm

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This if fair. His TS% in the playoffs in those 19 games was .531, his A:TO ratio was 4.95. ORtg of 115.

One thing he definitely doesn't do is turn the ball over.
39 games with an ORtg of 112ish, without a really strong offensive supporting cast, is quite solid tbh. It's not a huge sample, but it's not nothing either.

He's also a plus defender in the right lineups.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He started 16 games last season. He had two great games, the 30+ point games. In the other 14, he shot .330 from the floor. Those two games were the only ones in which he shot at least 50% from the floor, and he had 11 games where he shot less than 40%. The idea that he’s been some kind of consistent performer as a starter is not grounded in reality.
Of course nobody called him a consistent performer as a young PG where generally only the elite fit into that role. The only point made was his dramatic increase in numbers as a starter.
 

The Needler

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Of course nobody called him a consistent performer as a young PG where generally only the elite fit into that role. The only point made was his dramatic increase in numbers as a starter.
And my point made in response is that this “dramatic increase” is explained by a very small sample in which two outlier games greatly skewed those numbers.
 

lovegtm

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And my point made in response is that this “dramatic increase” is explained by a very small sample in which two outlier games greatly skewed those numbers.
The playoffs count too. In fact, they count more in evaluating players, because of the increased gameplanning and defensive intensity from the opposition.
 

The Needler

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The playoffs count too. In fact, they count more in evaluating players, because of the increased gameplanning and defensive intensity from the opposition.
Things weren’t too much different in the playoffs. A few gems surrounded by a bunch of stinkers.
 

lovegtm

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Things weren’t too much different in the playoffs. A few gems surrounded by a bunch of stinkers.
You can make any player look bad by throwing out his good individual games, keeping the bad ones, and ignoring team performance while he's on the floor.

I'm not saying Rozier is an elite PG, but there's a lot of evidence that he's an average to above-average starter who retains his value in playoff situations and plays strong defense in the right lineups.
 

The Needler

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You can make any player look bad by throwing out his good individual games, keeping the bad ones, and ignoring team performance while he's on the floor.

I'm not saying Rozier is an elite PG, but there's a lot of evidence that he's an average to above-average starter who retains his value in playoff situations and plays strong defense in the right lineups.

If you think it’s possible to be an above average player while having 6 bad games for every good one, we’ll just have to disagree about the importance and value of consistency out of a point guard.
 

bosox79

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39 games with an ORtg of 112ish, without a really strong offensive supporting cast, is quite solid tbh. It's not a huge sample, but it's not nothing either.

He's also a plus defender in the right lineups.
NBA.com has different stats than basketball reference.

They have him at 106.8 ORtg and 104.9 DRtg during those 19 playoff games.
 

bosox79

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Yeah if that's the case, I'd weight my evaluation of him down significantly.
I always thought the numbers were way too high on basketball reference for players. Don't know why I used it when I had the NBA site up. They have his 16 games as a starter last year at 108.9/101.9. His 64 games on the bench, 101.4/100.3.

This year, his 4 games as a starter 111.7/113.7 and 100.8/100.1 34 games off the bench.

You could actually argue he's been better off the bench this year. Go figure.
 

lovegtm

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I always thought the numbers were way too high on basketball reference for players. Don't know why I used it when I had the NBA site up. They have his 16 games as a starter last year at 108.9/101.9. His 64 games on the bench, 101.4/100.3.

This year, his 4 games as a starter 111.7/113.7 and 100.8/100.1 34 games off the bench.

You could actually argue he's been better off the bench this year. Go figure.
This is what I get for discussing things while watching football, my bad
 

HomeRunBaker

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Things weren’t too much different in the playoffs. A few gems surrounded by a bunch of stinkers.
Not sure which playoffs you were watching but Rozier was at worst one of our top 3 players in the Milwaukee and Philly series wins.....most likely top 2.

If you think it’s possible to be an above average player while having 6 bad games for every good one, we’ll just have to disagree about the importance and value of consistency out of a point guard.
Now it's a 6-to-1 ratio? I shouldn't even respond to nonsense like this but it's so outrageously biased that I couldn't resist.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He doesn't elevate much, but he's pretty quick laterally. When matched up against other smaller bigs he's looked good.
Oh I agree he's looked better this year in that he can actually now compete against second unit guys. I was referring specifically about his reach measurements which while impressive are offset by his inability to take advantage of them due to his lack of hops.
 

chilidawg

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37 assists last night with no one having more than 7. Both Tatum and Brown with 4 is a great sign.
 

Fishy1

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37 assists last night with no one having more than 7. Both Tatum and Brown with 4 is a great sign.
Independently was looking at this: in 39 games so far this season, Tatum has had 4 or more assists 7 times. Three of those games have been in the last five games. Last night was Jaylen's only game with four or more assists -- he also had four turnovers. I take his willing passing as a good sign, obviously, but a couple of his passes last night were easy ones on the break and Jaylen's had a lot of turnovers lately (10 in the last three games). He did have a nice dish to Kyrie in the paint.

Much more excited about Tatum's willing passing: just last night there was a nice no-look pocket pass in the paint to Horford, a kick out of the paint to Smart for a three, and a couple of alley-oop attempts (one successful one with Theis.) He's got the ball in his hands a lot more and is already a very talented passer when he's decisive and wiling. I'm hoping he'll come on strong in the second half.
 

amarshal2

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I can't find the quote but Tatum recently said he thinks the next evolution in his game is making his teammates better. His attention to passing seems intentional.
 

amarshal2

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There were people here who sounded like they gave up after the Spurs game.
And they missed Horford, Baynes, Irving, Morris, and Brown for stretches of this last 20.

Lately almost everyone is playing well and playing well together. They’re one game away from tying the franchise record for 30+ assist games in a row. They scored more points in regulation than they have in over a decade against the #2 defense in the league. Three straight wins by >20, and four by double digits. There’s nobody regularly having horrible nights that come with big minus ratings. We can let go of all the nonsense about Irving looking slow (a real thing people here said in like the second week), Al losing a step, or Brown/Hayward not fitting in or whatever else people have claimed. The Pacers game is probably the third toughest game of the month — they look like they’re going to cruise through January. Hopefully they can beat one or both of Tor and GSW for the cherry on top. This is the team we all expected from the get go.
 
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Strike4

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A lot of players making that extra pass and also getting the ball moving when stuff isn't working. There were multiple occasions in the game against the Pacers last night where earlier in the season:
  1. Tatum would have kept dribbling, driven to the basket, thrown up a wild shot and held his arms up in the air when there was no call;
  2. Brown would have been fouled, missed a layup and got no call;
  3. Smart would have actually shot the early-shot clock three instead of just pump faking;
  4. Rozier would have taken an off-balance shot after doing nothing with the ball.
In almost all cases, each player passed the ball or reset. You could almost see a thought bubble pop up above their heads - "wait, coach says pass in this situation". JB made some great passes to Theis under the basket when he went up. Smart did a great job of faking and dishing instead of chucking. Rozier was so active without the ball, rather than just letting it stagnate with him, and that gave him that little bit of space he needs.

I wonder if it was a Brad adjustment or he has been preaching it all along, and it's just taken time to come together.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I wonder if it was a Brad adjustment or he has been preaching it all along, and it's just taken time to come together.
Brad has been preaching this ever since he got here. Ball has to move side-to-side and can't stick. The issue was earlier in the year that everyone - and I mean everyone - except for Al figured that they were better than the defender so they'd just take it one-on-one. And that's when Brad starting saying that the team isn't as good as they thought they were.

Even Al said it in the pre-game: When the team moves the ball and plays with pace, they can be pretty good.

Oh and one more thing - it's nice that they are hitting open shots.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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There were people here who sounded like they gave up after the Spurs game.
And they missed Horford, Baynes, Irving, Morris, and Brown for stretches of this last 20.

Lately almost everyone is playing well and playing well together. They’re one game away from tying the franchise record for 30+ assist games in a row. They scored more points in regulation than they have in over a decade against the #2 defense in the league. Three straight wins by >20, and four by double digits. There’s nobody regularly having horrible nights that come with big minus ratings. We can let go of all the nonsense about Irving looking slow (a real thing people here said in like the second week), Al losing a step, or Brown/Hayward not fitting in or whatever else people have claimed. The Pacers game is probably the third toughest game of the month — they look like they’re going to cruise through February. Hopefully they can beat one or both of Tor and GSW for the cherry on top. This is the team we all expected from the get go.
Nice stats. One other thing with respect to shots that are > 10 feet

Games 1-20; wide open shots (closest defender > 6' away):
  • 2P FG = 4.4% of shots / 2.1-4.0 = 52.5%
  • 3P FG = 21.1% of shots / 6.6-19.0 = 34.7%
  • Total = 25.5% 8.7-23.0 = 37.8% (EFG% = 52.2%)
Games 21-40; wide open shots (closest defender > 6' away):
  • 2P FG = 4.3% of shots / 1.9-3.9 = 47.4%
  • 3P FG = 21.6% of shots / 8.3-19.6 = 42%.
  • Total: 25.9% / 10.2-23.4 = 43.5% (EFG% = 61.3%)
Games 1-20; open shots (closest defender = 4'-6' away):
  • 2P FG = 11.3% of shots / 4.0-10.2 = 39.2%
  • 3PFG = 15.1% of shots / 4.6-13.6 = 33.8%
  • Total: 26.4% / 8.6-23.8 = 36.1% (EFG% = 45.8%)
Games 21-40; open shots (closest defender = 4'-6' away):
  • 2P FG = 9.6% of shots / 3.9-8.8 = 44.6%
  • 3P FG = 14.8% of shots / 4.8-13.4 = 35.7%
  • Total = 24.5% of shots / 8.7-22.2 = 39.2% (EFG% = 50.0%)
I.e., they are making 1.7 more wide open 3P FG per game on virtually the same shot numbers. That's like 5 points more per game.
 

lexrageorge

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I wasn't able to watch a whole lot of those first 20 games; I well exceeded my budgeted sports TV time during the MLB playoffs. However, every time I did watch, it appeared the players were shooting when they should have been driving, driving when they should have been passing, and passing when they should have been shooting. Yeah, they were missing shots, and some of that is random. But they never seemed to be in great position when taking those "open shots".

I was at the Dallas game, and it was the first time I saw the team simply click the entire game (again, I know there were earlier times, but I missed them). Hayward was everywhere, and, more importantly, he seemed to be dictating the flow of the offense. I know Tatum got some heat here for having zero assists, but few of his shots that night were what I would call ill-advised. The concern then was how the team would gel when Kyrie and Morris returned from injury. And now Tatum is passing the ball.

So it has been refreshing to see the team continue to click and dominate their opponents in the process. Now let's see them continue their progress with 3 straight on the road. Granted against sub-.500 teams, but they still count in the standings. They do have a tough schedule 2nd half of February into mid-March, so they need to take advantage of this current stretch and try to move up in the conference standings.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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One other thing. Looking at shot distribution, they have more shots inside 9' over the last twenty games and have decreased the number of shots 2P shots inside 24 feet. All which is good. But the biggest thing to me is how much better they are shooting from 3P range.

Games 1-20 stats: 788-1,803 = 43.7% / 3P = 245-715 = 34.3% (EFG% = 50.5%) / 61.7% assisted (38.3% unassisted).
  • Less Than 5 ft. = 313-526 = 59.5% / 52.4% unassisted
  • 5-9 ft. = 61-138 = 44.2% / 49.2% unassisted
  • 10-14 ft. = 67-167= 40.1% / 34.3% unassisted
  • 15-19 ft. = 79-189 = 41.8% / 57.0% unassisted
  • 20-24 ft. = 116-361 = 32.1% / 87.9% unassisted
    • 2P = 23-68 = 33.8%
    • 3P = 93-293 = 31.7%
  • 25-29 ft. = 150-417 = 36.0% / 80.7% unassisted
  • 30-34 ft. = 2-2 = 100.0% / 50% unassisted
Games 21-40 stats: 878-1,814 = 48.4% / 3P = 289-737 = 39.2% (EFG% = 56.4%) / 64.6% assisted (35.4% unassisted).
  • Less Than 5 feet: = 365-549 = 66.5% / 62.5% unassisted
  • 5-9 feet: 67-170 = 39.4% / 40.3% unassisted
  • 10-14 feet: 74-158 = 46.8% / 43.2% unassisted
  • 15-19 feet: 68-154 = 44.2% / 50.0% unassisted
  • 20-24 feet: 101-267 = 37.8% / 82.2% unassisted
    • 2P = 15-46 = 32.6%
    • 3P = 86-221=38.9%
  • 25-29 feet: 201-510 = 39.4% / 81.1% unassisted
  • 30-34 feet: 2-4 = 50.0% / 0.0% unassisted