Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

In my lifetime

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The Dallas collapse continues as they dropped their 5th in a row this afternoon. They still have 2.5 game cushion (Jazz) before they join the lottery. As outlined above, their schedule makes it possible that Jazz makes up the ground. In any event, their draft position has significantly improved in the last 10 days.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Watch the Mavs miss the playoffs and connect on the remote chance of landing in the top 3. I'd almost prefer them shuffling nicely into the playoffs as an 8-seed.
 

bowiac

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Watch the Mavs miss the playoffs and connect on the remote chance of landing in the top 3. I'd almost prefer them shuffling nicely into the playoffs as an 8-seed.
I would be fine with this honestly. Between issues of draft quality, and rotation minutes, I'd be on board moving some draft picks into future years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I would be fine with this honestly. Between issues of draft quality, and rotation minutes, I'd be on board moving some draft picks into future years.
Very true I had this pick confused as one that turns into two 2nds for some reason.

Kicking that bucket down the road (top-7 protected for next 4 years) could easily net us a higher pick in a better draft.
 

BigSoxFan

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Dallas' next 6 games:

Hornets
Cavs
Warriors
Blazers
Blazers
Warriors

Some real potential for the wheels to fall off.
 

BigSoxFan

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Brooklyn melts down in the 4th quarter and loses to the Bucks. Next up - their 76er daddies.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Big game tomorrow night in Phoenix when the Timberwolves come to town. A Suns win pulls them even with Brooklyn while still having two games remaining with the Lakers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not really sure who we should be rooting for in this game.
Most definitely Phoenix. The odds to land in the Top-3 rise from 38% to 47% by moving the the 3rd spot as opposed the the 4th which is fairly significant. The first overall pick also moves from 11.9% to 15.6%.

The Brooklyn pick is the one that carries the most weight.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Nice night all around. Suns win. Dallas snaps their losing streak but Houston and Utah keep pace with wins over Memphis and Cleveland.

Brooklyn hosts Philly tonight but then has six straight against good teams, and Philly has been no picnic for them anyway.
 

Sprowl

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Don't look now, but Dallas is down to .500 and Utah, winners of three in a row, are closing in on the playoffs.
 

amfox1

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Updated as of 3/17am:

DAL and HOU remain tied for 7th/8th spot in West, with POR 1.0 GA and UTA 1.5 GB. POR has picked up 0.5 games and UTA has picked up 1.5 games on DAL/HOU since my last post.

Remaining schedules:
POR (14) - DAL(x2), SAC(x2), OKC, LAC, SA, GS, PHI, MIN, NO, BOS, MIA, DEN
HOU (14) - MIN(x2), OKC(x2), TOR, CLE, UTA, DAL, PHX, LAL, SAC, ATL, IND, CHI
DAL (14) - POR(x2), GS(x2), LAC, SA, HOU, UTA, SAC, MIN, MEM, DEN, NYK, DET
UTA (15) - PHX(x2), MIN(x2), LAL(x2), DAL, HOU, SA, GS, LAC, OKC, DEN, MIL, CHI

Red is games vs. .600+ teams. Blue is games vs. .400- teams.

Each team has four games left versus the .600+ teams. However, DAL has only two against the sub-.400 teams, while POR/HOU has five and UTA has six versus the sub-.400 teams. DAL plays the other "contenders" four times, so its future is in its own hands, but it is certainly possible for DAL to fall out of the playoffs. Note that the remaining DAL-UTA game on April 11 would decide the tiebreaker between the two teams.
 

amfox1

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DAL is losing and POR/HOU are winning, none a surprise. If the results hold, DAL will fall to 8th in the West, with POR 1.5 GA, HOU 1.0 GA and UTA 0.5 GB.

Edit: results held. Current tankathon standings are 4, 15, 21, 31, 35, 44, 52 and 58.
 
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Koufax

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Unfortunately the Celtics own #1 pick is looking better lately.
 

amfox1

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BRK has only five of its 14 games remaining with sub-.500 teams (NYK, NO, ORL and WASx2).

PHX has seven of its 13 games remaining with sub-.500 teams (SACx2, NO, MIL, MIN, LAL and WAS).

Edge (for the 3-spot): BRK
 

HomeRunBaker

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At this pace we'll have three lottery picks.....and I'm only partly kidding! With our schedule to finish out the year including the west coast trip we need to get the house in order really fast. Tomorrow in Philly is about as close as a must win to stop the bleeding and a great remedy of course.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Fortunately, 3 of the C's next 4 are against Philly, Orlando and Phoenix.

Hopefully Portland has their game together against the Mavs, as they have a home and home series coming up. Would love to see Dallas those two and then have fun with GS.
 

JakeRae

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At this pace we'll have three lottery picks.....and I'm only partly kidding! With our schedule to finish out the year including the west coast trip we need to get the house in order really fast. Tomorrow in Philly is about as close as a must win to stop the bleeding and a great remedy of course.
I've been hoping for the 6 seed since Crowder went down. I think roughly .500 basketball the rest of the way is a reasonable expectation if we assume Crowder misses the remaining games. That should keep them ahead of the Pacers, and definitely keeps them ahead of the Bulls. It's also worth noting that the 6 seed isn't much worse than the 3 seed going into the playoffs. A healthy Celtics team will have a pretty good shot at winning in the first round, even without home court, and has an outside chance of beating Toronto.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Fortunately, 3 of the C's next 4 are against Philly, Orlando and Phoenix.

Hopefully Portland has their game together against the Mavs, as they have a home and home series coming up. Would love to see Dallas those two and then have fun with GS.
I'm cool with them losing to Phoenix.
 

BigSoxFan

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Dallas beats Portland in OT. Lillard had a chance to win it in regulation and inexplicably took a 3. Oh well.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Quick update with a schedule for the rest of the month:

3/4- BKL. Now in a coin flip with PHO for the 3 spot, and 3 losses worse than MIN at 5.
vsCHA, vsCLE, vsIND, @MIA, @ORL, @CLE

15- DAL. So close to the lotto. Need UTA to get hot, sitting 1 game back.
@POR, @GS, @SAC, @DEN, vs NYK

22- BOS. Back on track after beating PHI. 1/2 game behind MIA for the 4 spot, 1 game behind ATL for #3. CHA is 1/2 game back in the 6 spot.
vsORL, vs TOR, @PHO, @LAC, @POR

Not a bad position to be in. Need BKL to keep losing, which shouldn't be too tough. Need Dallas to drop their next two and then stumble against one or two of the rest. Boston needs to take care of business in their next 3 games.
 

moondog80

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Do we root for Dallas to stay at 15, or drop into the actual lottery? Best we can hope for is 12th, but that comes with about a 2.5% chance of turning into a top 3 pick, which means Dallas keeps it and we try again next year.
 

Red Averages

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I would take a 97.5% chance of a 12th pick vs a 100% chance of a 15th pick any day of the week.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Dallas moving up AND bumping Brooklyn back would undoubtedly suck beyond belief, but I'd take the chance. Every slot counts. I hesitate to compare drafts but last year it was the difference between Rozier and being in range for guys like Booker, Turner, and Winslow. It's highly possible this year doesn't present the same difference between the 10-12 range and the 15-17 range but you never know.

Also, I think this is our best shot with Dallas. I feel like they'll either improve next season or tank hard enough to keep their pick. Don't trust them to hit the back-lotto sweetspot again.
 

Auger34

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Tim MacMahon is reporting Chandler Parsons has a torn meniscus...very, very likely that Mavs pick ends up in the lottery
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Tough loss for a team that relies so much on hitting annoying three pointers in the 4th quarter. It's going to be really close. One more each against Portland, Houston, and Utah, and an 8-5 road-home split to close it out. Utah has a favorable schedule. Houston's next two weeks are tough but they close with Dallas, Phoenix, LAL, Minnesota, and Sacramento.

If they drop the next two @ Portland and GS, the Mavs' b2b coming up at the Kings and Nuggets will be telling. Denver game will be 3 in 4 nights.
 

wilked

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In terms of the top pick...

With about 10-12 games remaining I think we can resonably say a few things:

*76ers will have the Worst Record (almost certain)
*Lakers will have the Second Worst Record (almost certain)
*Suns and Nets will be #3/4
*Minnesota will be #5 (fairly certain)

The real battle then is between Suns and Nets

Next 5 for the Nets: Cavs / Pacers / Heat / Magic / Cavs
Next 5 for the Suns: Lakers / Kings / Celts / Wolves / Bucks

Nets play only one team with a losing record (Magic)
Suns play only one team with a winning record (Celts)

This is the period to lock up the #3 seed
 

Koufax

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So the Celtics should start the rookies when they play the Suns. Double boost to the draft possibilities.
 

In my lifetime

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One of the more productive nights of the season for the draft picks.

Phoenix win puts the Nets in the 3rd slot
Minn. win pretty much takes them out of contention for 3/4.
Dallas loss puts them only a half game out of the 12 spot.
 
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Koufax

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Correction - Dallas loss puts them . . . .

Yes, it was a great night for the Tankathon.
 

amfox1

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Updated as of 3/24am:

With POR beating DAL and UTA beating HOU, the standings are POR in the 6th spot, 1.5 GA ahead of DAL/UTA for 7th/8th spot in West and HOU 0.5 GB of a playoff spot.

Remaining schedules:
POR (10) - SAC(x2), OKC, LAC, GS, PHI, MIN, BOS, MIA, DEN
DAL (11) - GS, LAC, SA, HOU, UTA, SAC, MIN, NYK, MEM, DEN, DET
UTA (11) - MIN(x2), LAL(x2), DAL, SA, GS, LAC, OKC, DEN, PHX
HOU (10) - OKC, TOR, CLE, DAL, PHX, LAL, SAC, MIN, IND, CHI

Red is games vs. .600+ teams. Blue is games vs. .400- teams.

BRK and PHX are tied in the loss column. In the event of a tie at the end of the season, the lottery order would be made through a random drawing.
 

moondog80

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Updated as of 3/24am:

With POR beating DAL and UTA beating HOU, the standings are POR in the 6th spot, 1.5 GA ahead of DAL/UTA for 7th/8th spot in West and HOU 0.5 GB of a playoff spot.

Remaining schedules:
POR (10) - SAC(x2), OKC, LAC, GS, PHI, MIN, BOS, MIA, DEN
DAL (11) - GS, LAC, SA, HOU, UTA, SAC, MIN, NYK, MEM, DEN, DET
UTA (11) - MIN(x2), LAL(x2), DAL, SA, GS, LAC, OKC, DEN, PHX
HOU (10) - OKC, TOR, CLE, DAL, PHX, LAL, SAC, MIN, IND, CHI

Red is games vs. .600+ teams. Blue is games vs. .400- teams.

BRK and PHX are tied in the loss column. In the event of a tie at the end of the season, the lottery order would be made through a random drawing.
With one game potentially make a huge difference, worth noting that Dallas has SA the last day of the season, so chalk that up as a win for the Mavs. I think Popovich might put himself out there for 20 minutes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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With one game potentially make a huge difference, worth noting that Dallas has SA the last day of the season, so chalk that up as a win for the Mavs. I think Popovich might put himself out there for 20 minutes.
This is also a B2B game on the road less than 24 hours after possibly beating the Thunder at home to finish the season 41-0 on their home floor. If the result of this game affects the 8th and final playoff spot in the West it will be a major black eye for Silver and the league.
 

moondog80

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This is also a B2B game on the road less than 24 hours after possibly beating the Thunder at home to finish the season 41-0 on their home floor. If the result of this game affects the 8th and final playoff spot in the West it will be a major black eye for Silver and the league.

We've been down this road before, and not just with the Spurs (or just the NBA). Teams do what's in their own best interests, and let the chips fall where they may. Didn't the Pats sit Brady in a game that had an impact on the playoffs a few years ago -- the one where Flutie drop-kicked the XP?
 
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Grin&MartyBarret

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We've been down this road before, and not just with the Spurs (or just the NBA). Teams do what's in their own best interests, and let the chips fall where they may. Didn't the Pats sat Brady in a game that had an impact on the playoffs a few years ago -- the one where Flutie drop-kicked the XP?
Seriously. This happens in every single sport, every single season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hard to believe the right to get evisecerated by the Warriors is going to constitue a huge black eye on the league.
You don't think an elimination game on the final day of the season where one team suits up it's trainer is a bad look? It's awful.

In the end it doesn't really matter for the reason you mentioned but you can bet that there will be one irate owner who is losing 2 gates that will be vocal about it.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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While I'd be annoyed if it pushed the pick back a few slots, it would be funny to see Houston be the team that gets boned. Frankly they deserve it--that team has pissed away more games by simply not caring than I've ever seen from an NBA team with decent talent.
 

NoXInNixon

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BRK and PHX are tied in the loss column. In the event of a tie at the end of the season, the lottery order would be made through a random drawing.
For tankathon teams, it's the win column, not the loss column, that matters more. The Nets currently have one fewer win than the Suns.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Two of the marks in that column came from beating the Celtics. Sorry to be Debbie Downer. Had the Cs taken care of business they could have a much better shot at a top four seed and the Nets would be closer to having the third worst spot locked up and closer to the Lakers, who the Cs also lost a game to.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The Nets also thrashed OKC and should've beaten Golden State way back. No team brings it (or plays like garbage) for all 82.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Nets also thrashed OKC and should've beaten Golden State way back. No team brings it (or plays like garbage) for all 82.
Yup. And if you gave us this position at the beginning of the season, 100% of us would have taken it. Right now, we have a 47% chance of a top 3 pick. Pretty solid even if we don't love the draft.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Nets also thrashed OKC and should've beaten Golden State way back. No team brings it (or plays like garbage) for all 82.
Not to mention that the Nets are a terrible matchup for us so it isn't "only" about bringing it against them. Lopez would be a 1st ballot HOFer if he played against our frontline every night......and he's really good as it is. We make Young look pretty good as well and games when Jack/JJ added backcourt scoring it gave us fits.
 

NoXInNixon

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I keep telling myself that the difference between the #3 and #4 seed is only a 4% chance at the #1 pick and a 7% chance at the #1 or #2. These games really don't matter that much. But they feel big.