Yeah, it's summer league but that's pretty much what we're hoping for, right?
Celtics Draft Jayson Tatum at #3
- Thread starter Marbleheader
- Start date
Tatum was knocked for being something of a black hole in college, but he might be more advanced in that regard than Jaylen at this point. That's really the thing holding Jaylen, his passing ability and his handle. It looks to have improved from last year and I doubt he'll be asked to create off the dribble in the Celtics offense this season, but still.
Perhaps creating off the dribble in ISO might be too much to expect, but I saw a couple of moves on the highlights that indicate his footwork on drives is better and his handle tighter (granted it's the highlights). I think we can expect him to leverage a short (1-2) dribble drives more.
I agree and I think that improvement will translate at the NBA level, but he'll still be somewhat limited in that regard. That said, I don't think he needs to improve that much to be a good NBA player. If he gets to the point where he can create off the dribble in isolation, he's going to be very good.
To my mind, Marcus Smart has improved pretty significantly as a dribbler and a passer since entering the league. And while Smart was better at that stuff than Jaylen coming out and a very different kind of player, they seem to have a similarly work ethic, so I expect continued improvement from Jaylen.
If he improves his handles enough to drive to the hoop, Jaylen will be living at the FT line.
I do think he will be living at the line, and they will be a lot of 'and 1s' because with that athleticism, confidence and size he is going to finish at the rim.
I think he's going to be an ugly (but effective) player to watch on offense along the lines of Butler and Corey Maggette. Brown and Maggette entered the league at the same age w/ 1 year of college and the two had very similar % rates among the 5 box score stats their rookie season, with Maggette improving his assist % a bit his first 4 years in the league. Mostly, Corey's whole offensive game was just putting his head down and driving to the rim or shooting a 16-22 foot jump shot. Those jumpers were far less infuriating when he played though.
Defense aside, I think we'd all be happy if Jaylen turned into a modern day Corey Maggette offensively (replacing all those 16-22 foot 2s with 3's). I think he'll put up box score lines similar to Corey if he reaches his peak (20points, 6 rebounds, 2-3 assists, negligible amount of steals/blocks), he'll just be more valuable doing it because he'll be better on defense. He'll be more efficient too but that's more a product of today's NBA game.
It's an interesting comparison and I would be happy with that outcome because a Corey Maggette who can shoot the 3 fairly well and who adds defensive value (rather than being a net negative for his career like Maggette) is a very good player. If Jaylen turns into that player and Tatum turns into Pierce (or even Carmelo), I think we'd all be pretty happy.
Tatum wasn't afraid of the moment. He may have had bigger moments in college or even in high school, but this was his first as a pro. He wasn't afraid to take the shot and he drained it.
Fultz looked very smooth, particularly early in the game with the smaller Jackson guarding him, but based on this very small sample I'll take Tatum and the extra draft pick.
Fultz looked very smooth, particularly early in the game with the smaller Jackson guarding him, but based on this very small sample I'll take Tatum and the extra draft pick.
Such a funny sentence. Tatum becoming Pierce would be as awesome as it is unlikely, but if it ever did happen we'd be extatic no matter what happened with Jaylen.
Developing Tatum while competing for titles: https://sports.yahoo.com/apprenticeship-vs-championship-inside-bostons-plan-develop-elite-talent-chasing-nba-title-160440233.html
Super early, but here is a fun comparison:
Tatum is averaging 15/5 on 50/50/85 shooting.
Now he won't shoot 50 from 3 or likely 50 from the floor, so lets go to 45 from the floor and 40 from 3. I wonder how many rookies have done 15/5 on 45/40/85.....
Oh... none. not a single one in the 3 pt era.
OK let's drop the FT%, 45/40/80....
Hey I found one.... Larry Bird (age 23).... and that's it.
OK, let's go with 45/35/80...
Two more... Mitch Richmond and Karl Anthony Towns.
If you eliminate 3 point shooting as a requirement, in the 3pt era you add:
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Larry Johnson
Dave Greenwood
CHristian Laetner.
Basically, Tatum is quietly putting up an all-time great rookie season early on.
Tatum is averaging 15/5 on 50/50/85 shooting.
Now he won't shoot 50 from 3 or likely 50 from the floor, so lets go to 45 from the floor and 40 from 3. I wonder how many rookies have done 15/5 on 45/40/85.....
Oh... none. not a single one in the 3 pt era.
OK let's drop the FT%, 45/40/80....
Hey I found one.... Larry Bird (age 23).... and that's it.
OK, let's go with 45/35/80...
Two more... Mitch Richmond and Karl Anthony Towns.
If you eliminate 3 point shooting as a requirement, in the 3pt era you add:
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Larry Johnson
Dave Greenwood
CHristian Laetner.
Basically, Tatum is quietly putting up an all-time great rookie season early on.
Wow, I had never looked up Laettner's numbers until now. I only remember seeing him as a stiff on Detroit. Dude put up some numbers his first few years in the league.
This. He's already got the frame (wide shoulders, C's believe he is possibly still growing). If he keeps his coordination, he could be a 240lb Tayshaun Prince with better shooting.
And yeah I noticed Jaylen looks bigger/beefier this year. Pound that protein Jayson!
There's a small problem with your math...why would Tatum still be scoring 15 points per game if his shooting dips that much? I would think if you updated his scoring totals based on the rate decrease you outline (~12.75ppg), you may get a few more players.
Players that just barely missed (over .75 FT%): Michael Beasley, Chris Morris, Arvydas Sabonis, and Joe Smith.
Still, overall, not the worst list. Beasley is the only one in Tatum's cohort age-wise (just 53 days older than Tatum at the start of their respective seasons), and the worst in that list by a good margin, but hopefully Tatum doesn't hit a ceiling early and then tail off like Beasley.
Pierce is a much better comparison for Tatum. As it turns out for good reason, when his father took over training him in high school he had JT spend hours breaking down tape of Paul Pierce as a model of what he should be. It's why you see so much of Pierce's post game and even that little jab step step back jumper he uses.
As someone who has watched a lot of Duke basketball, and has seen a lot of one and dones - Kyrie, Rivers, Jabari, Tyus Jones, Winslow, Okafor, Ingram, even Maggette - while Tatum was not my favorite player of these guys at Duke, it was pretty obvious sometime in January or February last year that he had by far the biggest upside (aside from Kyrie) due to his offensive skill, his frame and the potential to put on more weight, etc. So happy that the C's now have probably the best 2 one and dones from Duke.
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the only 19 year olds in the top 100 are LeBron and KG. So, that’s pretty good company.
He has the 2nd best TS% on the list (Who is Mason Plumlee? is the correct question), so my guess he's going to have to continue to shoot well to keep on that list.
Worth noting that Simmons is eighth.
Beasley's problem wasn't really talent, it was drugs (marijuana, primarily). Tatum sure seems to have the skills and basketball IQ. Work at it, add good weight, stay healthy, and avoid stupid stuff... sky's the limit. However, for this season, I'd like to see them cut back on his minutes and let others (like Morris) fill in. It's a long season for rookies, and we're hoping/expecting the Celtics' season goes even longer. I don't want the 19 year old worn out by March.
His shooting has been impressive but the thing that stands out the most is his defense. He's been much better than advertised. Some of that could just be the system, as the Celtics have been a great defensive team this year but some of it is Tatum.
Simmons is a 21yr old monster and seems to be only getting better game by game. If Tatum puts on muscle (like Brown did this offseason) is he our answer to Giannis and Simmons? But with a better stroke
Hes not quick defensively but hes surprising his opponents with his length. Hes got some omnipresent arms.
Giannis at 19, wasn’t. That said, they are different types of players. Tatum’s upside is something like
Paul Pierce. A perennial All Star player who a team can win with, but not a league MVP.
This is much closer to my point. They don't call Giannis "the Freak" for nothing; he's not a player you should really use in comparisons.
Even when he was at Duke the clear, obvious comparison for Tatum was there and it's Pierce, of course. Such similar games. I mean it will still be a huge, tremendous upset if he ends up with a career like Pierce's but that's a testament to Pierce, not a knock on Tatum.
One major caveat (feature really) with BPM is that it's force-fit to match a team's overall results. The Celtics have the top defense in the NBA so far. BPM has to assign that credit somewhere, so basically everyone on the Celtics has an excellent defensive BPM right now. This is why Tatum has such a strong dBPM, despite only "ordinary" steal, block, and rebounding figures. This isn't to take anything away from Tatum, but a +2.9 dBPM is upper-tier in the league sort of stuff and probably not realistic.
This also applies on the flipside, and explains why Tatum has sort of a pedestrian offensive BPM despite insane efficiency numbers. The Celtics have been below average offensively so far, so there's only limited credit to go around.
This also applies on the flipside, and explains why Tatum has sort of a pedestrian offensive BPM despite insane efficiency numbers. The Celtics have been below average offensively so far, so there's only limited credit to go around.
Just found this interview with Dickey V. He had Tatum, pre-draft, #1. Josh Jackson #2 and Ball #3...he had issues with Fultz lack of winners mentality at Washington.
For what its worth, I imagine he's pretty wired into scuttlebutt from college coaches.
For what its worth, I imagine he's pretty wired into scuttlebutt from college coaches.
Danny Leroux had a good point during the Dunc’d On podcast the other night. He said that the reason that some guys look so good statistically when compared to historical averages is that you are comparing a handful of games at the beginning of the season to full 82 game stats. “Let’s get to 40 games into the season and we’ll talk.”
Of course. It's unlikely Tatum is the best 19 year old ever but it's still exciting that he is opening the season in a way that makes it possible he will be.
It's like have a starting pitcher with an ERA of 1 after his first 3 starts. That's an awesome start to the season but it doesn't mean he's going to put up a 1999 Pedro performance.
The difference in basketball is that the eye test is more useful. So Tatum's stats are validated by the fact that he looks very comfortable on defense, and is extending his range and improving his willingness to fire from 3 when open. In baseball, how a pitcher "looks" tells you a lot less, so you can't update your evaluations as quickly.
Sort of a tangent but I don't think the "eye test" is any more or less useful in one sport compared to another.
There are professionals and amateurs that are really, really good at scouting basketball players. And baseball and football and so on. Then there are plenty of terrible armchair folks with the "eye test." Lastly, plenty of players, even in basketball, pass the "eye test" but are terrible NBA players over the long haul because they have some other deficiency that is not readily apparent to the guy on his couch with good eyes.
There are professionals and amateurs that are really, really good at scouting basketball players. And baseball and football and so on. Then there are plenty of terrible armchair folks with the "eye test." Lastly, plenty of players, even in basketball, pass the "eye test" but are terrible NBA players over the long haul because they have some other deficiency that is not readily apparent to the guy on his couch with good eyes.
I'll follow that tangent!Sort of a tangent but I don't think the "eye test" is any more or less useful in one sport compared to another.
I think some sports do lend themselves more to the eye test than others, just as I think analytics are not equally valuable across sports.
For example, as a hypothetical NBA GM, I think I'd be more willing to make a decision based on the eye test than if I were a hypothetical MLB GM.
Basketball's extended back and forth play on offense and defense, against a mix of athletes, would offer more opportunity for scouting to generate an 'eye test' opinion than in baseball, which is more short burst of activity but with higher volume samples over time. Both scouting and stats are important of course, but I'd give different weights to different sports and probably put the NFL somewhere in the middle.
Bringing it back to JT@3, they seem to both be indicating the C's have got a very interesting player
I haven't caught much C's action yet this season (live out of market) so I'm only vaguely aware of how he's been playing. So I just looked at his stats compared to other rookies. I know, the samples are still very, very small, but anyhow it's still fun to look at these things.
He's 5th in PPG, 6th in RPG, 5th in blocks/G, and 4th in minutes/G. He's only 10th in A/G, but of the 9 players ahead of him, 7 are listed as PGs and the other 2 as SGs. He's one of 9 rookies with a double-double (Markkanen has 2, Collins and Kuzma have 3, and Simmons has 7). He's 18/34 from the 3pt line, which puts him 4th in total made and 1st in % amongst qualified rookies. He's 1st in FT's made/G. In fact, he leads the Celtics in FTM/G.
Anyhow, I hope I soon get a chance to watch him play a bit more than I have so far.
He's 5th in PPG, 6th in RPG, 5th in blocks/G, and 4th in minutes/G. He's only 10th in A/G, but of the 9 players ahead of him, 7 are listed as PGs and the other 2 as SGs. He's one of 9 rookies with a double-double (Markkanen has 2, Collins and Kuzma have 3, and Simmons has 7). He's 18/34 from the 3pt line, which puts him 4th in total made and 1st in % amongst qualified rookies. He's 1st in FT's made/G. In fact, he leads the Celtics in FTM/G.
Anyhow, I hope I soon get a chance to watch him play a bit more than I have so far.
Tatum's performance against the Warriors was quietly impressive.
For most of the first 3 quarters, he really did look like a rookie who was overwhelmed by the moment. He was't getting involved in the offense, wasn't contrinuting in other ways, was occasionally schooled on defense. At one point mid game, he was -25 (for the game he was -18).
From near the end of the third quarter onward, he was a different guy. Scored a key bucket towards the end of the 19-0 run, provided 7 points in the 4th quarter, including those 2 free throws that iced the game with 6 second left.
His late production was crucial. Without him figuring it out and contributing, the Celtics don't win the game.
For most of the first 3 quarters, he really did look like a rookie who was overwhelmed by the moment. He was't getting involved in the offense, wasn't contrinuting in other ways, was occasionally schooled on defense. At one point mid game, he was -25 (for the game he was -18).
From near the end of the third quarter onward, he was a different guy. Scored a key bucket towards the end of the 19-0 run, provided 7 points in the 4th quarter, including those 2 free throws that iced the game with 6 second left.
His late production was crucial. Without him figuring it out and contributing, the Celtics don't win the game.
I think being put on Durant on D (a mistake that was rectified pretty quickly) threw him for an early loop and made it tough for him to get in the game as he otherwise would have. The finish was very encouraging. Salvaging tough games and persisting through a slump or bad stretch is a sign of great things to come.
Finding a way to get 7 points, when it would have been easy for him to turtle a bit and end up with 1-2, bodes well for his long term development as a scorer. It makes me happy to think of this as one of his worst games so far.
Brad called a ATO play for him in the third or fourth quarter after he was still looking shell shocked and it was a huge boost of confidence it seemed. Just a great job of showing trust and actual in game coaching by Brad.
He showed no fear trying to get to the rim even after such a poor first half, I cam away even more impressed by him.
He showed no fear trying to get to the rim even after such a poor first half, I cam away even more impressed by him.
Praise from Zach Lowe:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21438641/zach-lowe-10-things-like-featuring-pelicans-nba