Celtics Draft Jayson Tatum at #3

Ed Hillel

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The talent gap is not big enough? Sheesh.
For the extra ten years? Nope.

I’m not sure Tatum won’t be close to as good in 5 years as Curry is now. I think he’s perennial top 5 MVP candidate good.

Edif - I’m changing to “close to” because that an awfully high bar. But, as you can tell, I am extremely high on Tatum. What we’re seeing from him at his age is unprecedented.
 
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amarshal2

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Curry is going to the hall of fame. He’s playing, this year, like a hall of famer. He’s probably scored as many points in his last 15 games than Tatum has scored in his entire 43 game career. He’s still not even 30. I love Tatum, but we know almost nothing about his nba career.
 
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Bosox1528

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No.

If you asked me after 2014-15 (if Tatum did this that year), I say absolutely, no questions asked. But Davis has regressed since then. He looks like more of a Jimmy Butler/Paul George talent, both in terms of advanced stats and team success, than he does a top 5 in the league talent.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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After that dunk and then Kyrie's drive (and GREAT offensive rebound), when Tatum was in the corner asking for the ball for the 3 point attempt I could almost feel Kyrie saying "here you go, rook, show 'em what you can do" and he BURIED that three with hardly a ripple of the net. I may have made some noises I haven't made in quite awhile when that happened.
 

the moops

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No.

If you asked me after 2014-15 (if Tatum did this that year), I say absolutely, no questions asked. But Davis has regressed since then. He looks like more of a Jimmy Butler/Paul George talent, both in terms of advanced stats and team success, than he does a top 5 in the league talent.
He is having his best year shooting the three and the two, and has his highest TS%. His PER is 5th in the league, RPM is 13th. He is getting slightly fewer rebounds and blocks, but he is playing along side another very good big.

I don't know guys, but this seems to be turning into one of the biggest homer hot takes I can remember. Tatum is doing great things, but it is on such low usage, that it is so difficult to extrapolate.
 

slamminsammya

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I would trade him for Crowder ;) Regarding the blocks, I have a feeling those will actually go down a lot as opponents realize he's actually really long and athletic, and as his defensive positioning improves to the point that his recovery blocks arent necessary in the first place.
 

DJnVa

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After that dunk and then Kyrie's drive (and GREAT offensive rebound), when Tatum was in the corner asking for the ball for the 3 point attempt I could almost feel Kyrie saying "here you go, rook, show 'em what you can do" and he BURIED that three with hardly a ripple of the net. I may have made some noises I haven't made in quite awhile when that happened.
Kyrie was PUMPED when that went in.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Odds that at some point in his career he will record a quadruple double? I say +200.
Never. There have been all of 4 quadruple doubles in NBA history. Hakeem, David Robinson, Nate Thurmond and Alvin Robertson. He isn't nearly the shot blocker the first 3 are, and Alvin Robertson is possibly the best stealer in NBA history.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Never. There have been all of 4 quadruple doubles in NBA history. Hakeem, David Robinson, Nate Thurmond and Alvin Robertson. He isn't nearly the shot blocker the first 3 are, and Alvin Robertson is possibly the best stealer in NBA history.
I agree "never". Bird came close once (with something like 8 steals along with a traditional triple double). I think Hakeem might have come close to a quintuple double once.
 

RetractableRoof

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I agree "never". Bird came close once (with something like 8 steals along with a traditional triple double). I think Hakeem might have come close to a quintuple double once.
Am I right to recall the Celtics had a big lead in that game and Bird sat most of the 4th quarter even when told about the quadruple being close?
 

Koufax

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Yes, that is correct. He had 10 steals and needed a rebound, I believe.
 

Koufax

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Great find. my memory failed me once again. It was the Utah game I was remembering, and he was one steal short.
 

DJnVa

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So, yeah, I'll take the other side of that quadruple double action Nox. Send me $100, and if it happens I'll gladly pay you at +200.
 

ifmanis5

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First Celtics rookie with at least 5 blocks since Vitor is a fun stat. Tatum's stat lines are starting to look a lot like Kawhi's.
 

Imbricus

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Here's a Bleacher Report redraft from a few days ago with Tatum #1 and:

#2 Fultz
#3 Mitchell
#4 Ball
#5 Kuzma
#6 Smith Jr.
#7 Markkanen
#8 Anunoby
#9 Fox
#10 Isaac

Isaac's stock has probably dropped because he's been out so much.
 

Bosox1528

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I actually think it's sort of interesting that he's still as high as number 2.
I think it's just hype.

I don't think there's any reason to expect Markelle Fultz to be a good NBA shooter within the near future. FT% is a better predictor of NBA shooting than 3P% in college, and Fultz was a bad FT shooter. His shot still looks horrible from the few clips we've seen.
 

mauf

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Here's a Bleacher Report redraft from a few days ago with Tatum #1 and:

#2 Fultz
#3 Mitchell
#4 Ball
#5 Kuzma
#6 Smith Jr.
#7 Markkanen
#8 Anunoby
#9 Fox
#10 Isaac

Isaac's stock has probably dropped because he's been out so much.
Not buying the author’s reasoning. In a redraft, the C’s keep the #1 pick and take Tatum, the Lakers still grab Ball at #2, and the Sixers probably stick with Fultz at #3, though Mitchell would be tempting.
 

JakeRae

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It's worth noting that BPM thinks Kuzma hasn't been all that good and RPM thinks he's been awful.

In terms of those stats, the standout players from this draft class early on are Bell, Tatum, Anunoby, Mitchell, Collins, Adebayo, and Ball. That basically gets you guys who grade out as around zero or better and have played real minutes.

The above list is not intended as a list of how guys would go in a redraft. Ceiling matters. It may illustrate that some guys who are perceived to be having strong rookie campaigns, like Kuzma and Smith, aren't contributing so much after all.
 

DJnVa

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The above list is not intended as a list of how guys would go in a redraft.
Huh?

That's exactly what it is. I can tell because the title of it is "Re-drafting the 2017 NBA Draft" and then I read the following line in the article: "We took last year's final first-round order (after trades) and re-drafted the class"
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's worth noting that BPM thinks Kuzma hasn't been all that good and RPM thinks he's been awful.
Interesting long form article on Kuzma from the Ringer here: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/1/3/16844192/los-angeles-lakers-kyle-kuzma-rookie-sensation-feature

I've not seen a ton of the Lakers but what I've seen, Kuzma's defense really does need improving. He offered little resistance to 'Melo when they played and he doesn't seem like he makes his rotations very well. While he was a great pick at 27 (the Cs pick) and will make a lot of money in the league; he still does have a ways to go before reaching the higher tiers in my very limited opinion.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Here's a Bleacher Report redraft from a few days ago with Tatum #1 and:

#2 Fultz
#3 Mitchell
#4 Ball
#5 Kuzma
#6 Smith Jr.
#7 Markkanen
#8 Anunoby
#9 Fox
#10 Isaac

Isaac's stock has probably dropped because he's been out so much.

Poor Josh Jackson. No Josh Collins either, but it was a really deep draft and he's actually listed 11th so... heh. Ntikilina dropped a bit too even though he's impressed me given he's a 19 year old PG. It's probably no fault of his own, just a really deep draft.

Re Kuzma: He's like the IT4 of power forwards but less talented. For an NBA player, he is not long so even with effort he's not going to be that great. Kuzma also seems undisciplined at times and tends to get sloppy but he's also a rookie. I've seen him benched a few times for boneheaded passes and a lack of effort on defense. He's also not 19 or 20 so what he is doing is less impressive than it appears. 22 isn't old but compared to others in his draft class, it is.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Re Kuzma: He's like the IT4 of power forwards but less talented. For an NBA player, he is not long so even with effort he's not going to be that great. Kuzma also seems undisciplined at times and tends to get sloppy but he's also a rookie. I've seen him benched a few times for boneheaded passes and a lack of effort on defense. He's also not 19 or 20 so what he is doing is less impressive than it appears. 22 isn't old but compared to others in his draft class, it is.
Yes. You have to wonder how much growth he has in his game and whether he is a legit asset or a "put up numbers on a crap team" guy.

I don't honestly know how I'd slot them in a redraft, beyond that Tatum is #1. I think Fultz and Ball fall a bit, but not too far. Mitchell and Smith move up. It's hard to say because it is a mistake to assume that whomever is fastest out of the gate will ultimately have the best career (though I do think it is true for Tatum).
 

Cellar-Door

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Fun with comparing Tatum to other players.

Advanced:

Per 100 Possessions:


obviously 1 of these is Tatum, but who is the other surprisingly similar rooke (hint he was a year older than Tatum as a rookie)
 

DannyDarwinism

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Fun with comparing Tatum to other players.

Advanced:

Per 100 Possessions:


obviously 1 of these is Tatum, but who is the other surprisingly similar rooke (hint he was a year older than Tatum as a rookie)
I was just comparing these two the other day. Maybe not quite the defensive upside of Player A, but a higher ceiling in offense. Man, that's bonkers to say at this point, and yet it still feels true.
 

DannyDarwinism

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And I really can't figure out where the difference in OBPM lies. Offensive rebounds and a slightly better turnover rate? I would think Tatum's better efficiency and ability to get to the line would offset those.
 

Cellar-Door

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And I really can't figure out where the difference in OBPM lies. Offensive rebounds and a slightly better turnover rate? I would think Tatum's better efficiency and ability to get to the line would offset those.
I would guess that the league wide increase in 3PAr is hurting him, also the TS% of his team. Since BPM adjusts TS% based on the teamwide TS% and 3PAr based on the leaguewide 3PAr

Edit- yeah league wide 3PAr was .226, this year it is .336, Team TS% wasn't a factor though, similar for both teams
 

DannyDarwinism

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Love this interview, good listen while we wait for the next game.


Drew Hanlen...word
That's great, really interesting stuff. I didn't realize Semi was a Hanlen guy too. Crazy that he started training Beal when he (Hanlen) was a senior in high school. Can he start working with Marcus and Jaylen too? Just so long as he doesn't start pushing JT0 brand electrolytes and avocado ice cream.
 

DJnVa

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Fun with comparing Tatum to other players.

Advanced:

Per 100 Possessions:


obviously 1 of these is Tatum, but who is the other surprisingly similar rooke (hint he was a year older than Tatum as a rookie)
Okay...who? Spoiler it if others want to guess...
 

RetractableRoof

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One interesting thing about the podcast with Hanlen was his talking about Ojele's 3 point shot flattening out due to creep in his mechanics - which are seeing a bit lately. It's encouraging that Hanlen is able to work with these guys and continue to guide their development as someone who already knows them and knows their growth curve, etc. Hopefully while on the same page as the C's obviously.
 

nighthob

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That's great, really interesting stuff. I didn't realize Semi was a Hanlen guy too. Crazy that he started training Beal when he (Hanlen) was a senior in high school. Can he start working with Marcus and Jaylen too? Just so long as he doesn't start pushing JT0 brand electrolytes and avocado ice cream.
If he were working with Smart wouldn’t the obvious choice be Smart Water? I guess Jaylendo (“It’s got what ballers crave!”) works too.
 

bowiac

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And I really can't figure out where the difference in OBPM lies. Offensive rebounds and a slightly better turnover rate? I would think Tatum's better efficiency and ability to get to the line would offset those.
In addition to Cellar-Door's point about Lg3PT%, there is a team-component to box-plus minus. Tatum's "raw" offensive BPM is 1.0; however in order to make BPM match the Celtics actual offensive output, his offensive BPM (and all Celtics players' offensive BPM) is dinged by 0.6 points. The reverse is happening defensively: the Celtics defense is better than the BPM formula can fully attribute using box-score metrics, so all Celtics players are getting a 1.6 dBPM boost to their stats.
 

benhogan

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One interesting thing about the podcast with Hanlen was his talking about Ojele's 3 point shot flattening out due to creep in his mechanics - which are seeing a bit lately. It's encouraging that Hanlen is able to work with these guys and continue to guide their development as someone who already knows them and knows their growth curve, etc. Hopefully while on the same page as the C's obviously.
Sadly I hate Bradley Beal a little less. I do like how much confidence Hanlen has in Tatum, has to rub off on the kid.

Danny should ship Drew to the UK to work with Semi over the break, and polish up Tatum.
 

Devizier

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I wonder if Kuzma is a modern Sharif Abdur-Rahim or Mitch Richmond type. Good counting numbers but overall the whole is less than the sum of its parts.