Perhaps we can take a look at the pluses and minuses for a player coming to Boston to play for the Celtics:
- Plus: Young and improving roster. We can look at the individual pieces and analyze their faults ad infinitum. But they are 3rd in the Eastern Conference, have proven to be a tough out against the cream of the NBA's competition, and the fact remains that young players often do improve over time. A prospective free agent could see the chance to be both the alpha star and also ride on the team's success as the roster matures. Probably not enough to attract a LeBron James (or any other FA star in the 2nd half of their prime years), but may be enough to attract a lesser tier free agent who sees a team on the upswing. If they make some noise in the playoffs this year, that could help. I'm not so ready to discount this factor.
- Plus: Brad Stevens. Players seem to love playing for him, and he seems like he's going to be around for a bit. Is it a big factor alone? Probably not. But could be enough to break a tie.
- Plus: Cap space. First time in a long time. I don't know why this is getting downplayed here. Without cap space, the opportunity to attract a big free agent doesn't even exist.
- Minus: Contender status. It's debatable how close Boston is to being a true contender. Is it one great player? One great plus another lower tier veteran? Or a couple of All Star reserve caliber players? Probably something in between. But the Celtics are not Cleveland, San Antonio, Oklahoma, or Golden State. This is not the same as "young and improving roster" above, as this is more immediate gratification, which will matter to a free agent that is well into the 2nd half of their prime years and sees a limited opportunity window to win a ring.
- Minus: Marketing endorsements. This is a bit curious, as Brady has not had any problems getting endorsement deals despite playing in the same market. But most NBA telecasts are regional, and the media exposure for NBA players seem to be a bit more provincial. LA and New York are much bigger media markets, and so Boston loses here by a fairly wide margin.
- Minus: Taxes. Florida and Texas are the big winners here. NY, LA, Toronto are the big losers. Boston lies somewhere in the middle.
- Minus: Weather. I know this gets cited ad nauseum. It probably matters to some players; probably doesn't to others. But I never see this same excuse applied to Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Toronto, Philadelphia, et al, so I'm skeptical that this is as a huge a factor as it's made it to be by the media.
- Minus: nightlife. I hear this mentioned, but I think it's garbage. Seems like excuse making than anything else.
Did I miss anything here? I'm deliberately ignoring history, as I don't see how an NBA player in his late 20's or early 30's cares either about the Bill Russell years or the vast wasteland of seasons that preceded 2008. I'm also ignoring racial climate, as I'm not qualified to even open that can of worms. All I know is that the current crop of players don't seem to mind playing here.
What does this all mean? IMO, I don't think it's always pass/fail when it comes to attracting free agents. I believe that the factors that attract any one particular player are varied, and that some factors can change over time. The 3 pluses above have not always been available to the Celtics (think Rick Pitino, Eric Williams, and Vin Baker's cap hit). The contender status is important, but that can also change over time (which we've already seen). A lot will depend upon which free agents become available (as opposed to resigning with their current teams), and which other teams are in the hunt for a particular player.
