Celtics 20-21 Roster Construction
- Thread starter NomarsFool
- Start date
Reddick would be a great fit.
View: https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status/1355939873874710529?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status/1355939873874710529?s=21
With as undersized and defensively challenged as our backcourt is already, I don't see the fit. Ball makes more sense.
Lonzo would be a great fit defensively, but the Celtics shouldn't be giving up assets for a non-center who can't shot 3s. It's all about who to surround the Jays with, and two below average 3 point shooters (Smart and whichever center is on the court) is enough.
FWIW, Lonzo is 36.3% 3pt shooter on high volume since the beginning of last year. He’s started slow this year but this seems to be an area where he’s likely to improve.
This is his 3 point shooting by year:
.305
.329
.375
.321
Until further evidence emerges it looks like last year was pretty clearly the outlier. His form still looks like ass (although mildly improved over earlier versions) and his free throw percentage is a whopping 58% (career: 49%). It's with good reason that the Pelicans may move on.
I think it’s a little premature to call last year a clear outlier. This season’s sample size is too small. I think with lower volume, he’s somewhere in the 35-36% range. Not really an asset but hopefully not a huge negative either. As for moving on, the primary reason is that they have cheaper options in Lewis and Nickeil so giving him a market rate contract doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. But somebody will probably give him the 15-18M / year contract. And after watching this team continue to play uninspired defense, I’m more open to a guy like Lonzo vs. a Redick type. There just aren’t any good available options that combine the best of both worlds.
I was pretty bullish on Lonzo heading into this year, but his form, FT% and current season numbers definitely still scream "prove it!" to me. Maybe it improves with better selection, but this is a guy who provides very little value in a half court offense if he can't hit 3s. His free throw attempts per game are comically low (1.2 attempts per game for his career, and the only player with a higher usage rate and a lower FT rate this year is Anfernee Simons), if he's not making people guard him from behind the arc he serves no offensive purpose at all outside of transition.
He helps defensively in a way that Reddick doesn't, but I'm trying to imagine him on the court with Smart/Brown/Tatum, and it's ugly.
He helps defensively in a way that Reddick doesn't, but I'm trying to imagine him on the court with Smart/Brown/Tatum, and it's ugly.
I think it would be situational at the end of games. Adding Lonzo to those 3 would give you a very good defensive lineup. If you need offense, either PP or Kemba is out there. The ideal pairing is someone who can do both - a guy like OG would be perfect but is unobtainable. I don’t see very many alternative, cheaper options either.
This is where Romeo’s lost development time hurts. We still don’t know what we have here and he could have earned big minutes while Smart is out.
I don't think I want Reddick, he's 36 and does not look like the same player, he has serious Teague/Thompson potential. I wouldn't take him for free (the TPE remaining whole is more valuable).
Lonzo can't shoot, I'm sorry, but the idea that we should buy one outlier year, where even in that year his FTs and jumpers from 2 were terrible is a huge stretch. He got on a hot streak and people built a narrative.
His defense is decent, but you can literally get a guy who can defend as well and shoot as well for the minimum.
Lonzo can't shoot, I'm sorry, but the idea that we should buy one outlier year, where even in that year his FTs and jumpers from 2 were terrible is a huge stretch. He got on a hot streak and people built a narrative.
His defense is decent, but you can literally get a guy who can defend as well and shoot as well for the minimum.
I wish there was a way to pick up John Collins but I am starting to warm up to Aaron Gordon.
.335
.253
.283
.301
.364
.347
.311
Plus Lonzo is only 15 games into his 4th season. If he shoots .347 this year, does that make people feel better about his shot?
Long story short, I don't want Lonzo because we already have a Lonzo. Having 2 would not be optimal.
I also think Ball's FT shooting is irrelevant to his future success hitting 3 pointers. Why look at the much smaller sample size? At his current rate, in another 12-13 games he'll have more 3 point attempts this year than he does FTA in his career.
I think in today's environment, there will be certain players who can shoot the 3 and can't hit FTs. I don't know if Ball will be one but I don't think his FT shooting will have much baring on it.
Maybe. But we have our own guy like that too and people don't consider his year fluky.
.335
.253
.283
.301
.364
.347
.311
Plus Lonzo is only 15 games into his 4th season. If he shoots .347 this year, does that make people feel better about his shot?
Long story short, I don't want Lonzo because we already have a Lonzo. Having 2 would not be optimal.
I also think Ball's FT shooting is irrelevant to his future success hitting 3 pointers. Why look at the much smaller sample size? At his current rate, in another 12-13 games he'll have more 3 point attempts this year than he does FTA in his career.
I think in today's environment, there will be certain players who can shoot the 3 and can't hit FTs. I don't know if Ball will be one but I don't think his FT shooting will have much baring on it.
Well, you jinxed it. He's out 4-6 weeks with a severe ankle injury. Should be 100% before the 3/25 deadline though.
I don't consider Smart fluky, I consider him a below average 3 point shooter who occasionally goes supernova. It sounds like you agree that the problem isn't necessarily that Smart/Ball are mediocre to bad 3 point shooters, the problem is that they can't both play alongside a center and the Jays. Just not enough shooting, so I'll stick with the guy we have (who also happens to be a lot better).
Regarding FT%, I'd ask that you show me a good 3 point shooter who can't even hit 60% of his free throws (other than Bruce Bowen). Hell, even Smart has been at 79% since his rookie year. This discussion came up a few years ago regarding Jaylen, and whether or not his lousy FT shooting meant his 3 point shooting was a fluke. Brown pulled it out, but his FT % is (and was) a solid level or two above Ball. How many guys have been awful FT shooters but good 3 point shooters for more than a year?
Jaylen also became a passable FT shooter. Brandon Ingram was an example... but he became a very good FT shooter.
Nick Anderson was probably the yips. Rajon Rondo has been an ok 3 point shooter the last couple years. Thaddeus Young has done it a few years. Harkless has done it a couple years.
Marvin Bagley is currently doing it right now, although this year he's been especially terrible from the FT line.
They shot under 65% anyway, not 60. I'm sure Ball will probably improve from the line as well but maybe not. I don't think he will ever be that good of a 3 point shooter and you are right that he is exceptionally bad at the FT line but to date, he's a .339 career 3 point shooter in 1030 attempts. Smart is at .318 in 1925. I'm not sure he'll be any less of a threat from 3 than Marcus.
But yea, I agree you can't really play Smart and Ball together with a center. I'm not sure you could play them together even with a stretch 5.
Jaylen and Ingram both shot better from the line as rookies than Lonzo ever has, although their improvement (both from 3 and from the line) would be Lonzo's best case.
Nick Anderson is an interesting one, although before the yips really kicked in he was around 69/70%. Thad Young and Rondo have had years when they were awful from the line and not terrible from 3, but both have well earned reputations of being mediocre at best from 3.
Bagley's career is too short to draw anything from it. He's played 94 games and hit just 54 total 3s. Not worth trying to extrapolate 20 made 3s and 30 made free throws so far this year into anything noteworthy about his own career, let alone trying to draw a comparison with someone else.
None of those guys (other than Jaylen/Ingram) would be considered good 3 point shooters (maybe Anderson), and all shot better from the line than Lonzo does.
Beyond these FT comps (which I think you'd agree are a bit tenuous), his form is still brutal. This is impossible to quantify, but his shot is ugly as hell. Some guys can make awful looking shots work (Kevin Martin, Shawn Marion) but most don't. I hope it works out for him, once he left the Lakers I can't help but root for him (same with Fultz leaving Philly).
Nick Anderson is an interesting one, although before the yips really kicked in he was around 69/70%. Thad Young and Rondo have had years when they were awful from the line and not terrible from 3, but both have well earned reputations of being mediocre at best from 3.
Bagley's career is too short to draw anything from it. He's played 94 games and hit just 54 total 3s. Not worth trying to extrapolate 20 made 3s and 30 made free throws so far this year into anything noteworthy about his own career, let alone trying to draw a comparison with someone else.
None of those guys (other than Jaylen/Ingram) would be considered good 3 point shooters (maybe Anderson), and all shot better from the line than Lonzo does.
Beyond these FT comps (which I think you'd agree are a bit tenuous), his form is still brutal. This is impossible to quantify, but his shot is ugly as hell. Some guys can make awful looking shots work (Kevin Martin, Shawn Marion) but most don't. I hope it works out for him, once he left the Lakers I can't help but root for him (same with Fultz leaving Philly).
If the Pels want to move Lonzo for a couple of seconds, and reduce their 8th highest in the league payroll, I’m ok with the Celtics using $11m of their TPE. Solid defense, great passing, good at pushing tempo, good rebounding, and maybe an uptick on his 3pt% playing with two killer wings.
Or a couple of seconds for Josh Hart, using the Kanter TPE (or for Edwards and Javonte)
No on JJ for me, unless as a buyout acquisition
Or a couple of seconds for Josh Hart, using the Kanter TPE (or for Edwards and Javonte)
No on JJ for me, unless as a buyout acquisition
Hart would be a solid addition if you think (and I do) that we're not going to get much out of Nesmith and Langford this year.
Either way, as long as Smart is on the roster, I (we) don't see how Lonzo is a fit. If they were to trade Smart, I'd be for gambling on Lonzo if the price really only was a couple of 2nd rounders.
If the price for Lonzo is a couple of 2nd rounders, it’s not a gamble. It would be an absolute steal. His fit with Smart is a valid point but the guy is a good player.
Turning Smart into better shooting and then filling that glue guy slot with Lonzo is an intriguing move tbh.
I’d probably prefer to just have Smart and move some assets for a significant player with the TPE, but the Kemba deal makes that hard, and we’re going to have to make some tough choices now.
Also worth noting that the Celtics play maximally to Ball’s abilities on offense (bringing the ball up the floor and then spacing/attacking closeouts), while the Js would minimize the weakness of not being a creator.
Would’ve never guessed this.
View: https://twitter.com/seangrandepbp/status/1356479509273411584?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/seangrandepbp/status/1356479509273411584?s=21
Yeah, despite our griping, the Celtics have talent. 2 All-NBA guys + Smart gets you quite far. And this is almost exactly the same team that probably should have made the Finals last season.
Now back to crying into my pillow about the Kemba contract...
Especially considering the amount of talent that has left in free agency over the last 20 months. Just gotta get things right for the playoffs, although it's starting to feel like the Brad Stevens Celtics will never be healthy at the end of the season.
From a mindset/organization perspective, they probably would do best to just think of it like they're the Clippers or Nets, and just got 2 All-NBA guys to sign in FA, with everything else up for grabs/clean slate.
Seth Partnow of the Athletic had an interesting breakdown of the impact of spacing and a metric around "average shooter quality" that reflects weighted average WPA on 3 pt shots taken. Celtics are third from the bottom (ahead only of Orlando and NYK) thus far. The need for shooting, and better wing/guard play, is pretty material....
The offense is unsurprising, but I guess they must have had a rapid improvement in their defensive stats lately because I think they had been in the bottom half for much of the season.
But they're really just above average at both. That's not going to get it done in the playoffs. Plenty of time to step it up, and with decent health I think they have it in them.