Celtics 16/17 Roster and Assets

BigSoxFan

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If Westbrook really is locked in on the Lakers for the following year, what's their incentive for trading for him now? Just sign him when the time comes, and use those trade chips to build around him
Yup. There is none, which takes another possible team off the table. Philly and Phoenix have the assets but are too young for a superstar in his prime to be interested so they would be flushing assets down the toilet just so that they can win 25-35 games and hurt their 2017 draft position.

The real question here is how locked in Westbrook is to the Lakers. If he really is a stronger lean to them, it's foolish for anyone to trade for him, including the Celtics.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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If he won't commit to resigning (even a handshake) than you don't give up anything to get him. If he does the Celtics have by far the most assets to get him. I'm not sure how either of those are debates me statements.
 

AMS25

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If Westbrook really is locked in on the Lakers for the following year, what's their incentive for trading for him now? Just sign him when the time comes, and use those trade chips to build around him
FYI, there's no buzz at all in the OKC metro about the Thunder trading Westbrook or Westbrook's desire to bolt for the Lakers in free agency. Re: the Lakers, many have made the assumption that Westbrook would consider the Lakers as a free agent because he grew up in LA and has "fashion" interests. But, Russ has never publicly hinted at an interest in the Lakers. That doesn't keep Laker fans from drooling, just as KD's lack of stated interest never kept Wizard fans from drooling.
 

E5 Yaz

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FYI, there's no buzz at all in the OKC metro about the Thunder trading Westbrook or Westbrook's desire to bolt for the Lakers in free agency. Re: the Lakers, many have made the assumption that Westbrook would consider the Lakers as a free agent because he grew up in LA and has "fashion" interests. But, Russ has never publicly hinted at an interest in the Lakers. That doesn't keep Laker fans from drooling, just as KD's lack of stated interest never kept Wizard fans from drooling.
Joseph Aboud, where are you when we need you?
 

moondog80

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If he won't commit to resigning (even a handshake) than you don't give up anything to get him. If he does the Celtics have by far the most assets to get him. I'm not sure how either of those are debates me statements.
You take the chance if it's the only feasible way to trade for a superstar. Even if there's a a 50% chance he bolts, the chances of either of the Brooklyn picks turning into Westbrook are far less than 50%.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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You take the chance if it's the only feasible way to trade for a superstar. Even if there's a a 50% chance he bolts, the chances of either of the Brooklyn picks turning into Westbrook are far less than 50%.
You don't burn the assets for one season of maybe competing for the conference. RW doesn't put them into title contention as the team is currently built. It puts them in competition with Cleveland and still behind them.

The assets they have need to be spent on a player with control with the intent to acquire another to team with him. Otherwise you're pissing them away. If they can trade half for RW and the other half for a Griffin or Boogie, sure. You don't spend the price for RW to get to 60 wins to lose to the Cavs or even GS and then have him walk. And this team is more than a RW away from a title.
 

moondog80

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It's not just one season of RW, it's one season plus a significant increase your chances of signing him long term. That's a meaningful difference. I do get your point though, and this is with the assumption of a somewhat reduced price given the uncertainty. I would give one of the Brooklyn picks (and something else) for unsigned Westbrook, whereas I'd happily give both for him long-term (which, ironically, would be similar to the price Brooklyn paid for Deron Williams).
 

gammoseditor

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You don't burn the assets for one season of maybe competing for the conference. RW doesn't put them into title contention as the team is currently built. It puts them in competition with Cleveland and still behind them.

The assets they have need to be spent on a player with control with the intent to acquire another to team with him. Otherwise you're pissing them away. If they can trade half for RW and the other half for a Griffin or Boogie, sure. You don't spend the price for RW to get to 60 wins to lose to the Cavs or even GS and then have him walk. And this team is more than a RW away from a title.
If you can get him for a steep discount why not? It's going to be interesting. He should have huge value but if he won't extend anywhere it kills his market. It doesn't help that a 73 win team added another HOF talent and no single team with assets to trade would be pushed over the top with him.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It's not just one season of RW, it's one season plus a significant increase your chances of signing him long term. That's a meaningful difference. I do get your point though, and this is with the assumption of a somewhat reduced price given the uncertainty. I would give one of the Brooklyn picks (and something else) for unsigned Westbrook, whereas I'd happily give both for him long-term (which, ironically, would be similar to the price Brooklyn paid for Deron Williams).
I'm sorry could you expound on the "significant increase" on chances of resigning him? Based on what? C's wouldn't have any more of a significant increase than OKC does now or did to resign Durant (considerably less in both cases, more so the later). Is the aura of the parquet wooing him?

I'm not trading either of what looks to be a top pick for one season of prime Michael Jordan unless he has another person coming with him in a side deal, because those picks are the only chance to win a title, either through trade or draft and one of each should be applied to each.
 

amfox1

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One point I have seen (h/t Bobby Marks) is that it may be wise for Westbrook to agree to a 1+1 contract extension, so that he can get his Tier 3 max contract after 2018. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if he agreed to said extension, in exchange for a salary bump this year (from $17.7mm to $26.5mm). The trick is that BOS would need to be under the cap by said amount ($8.8mm) at the time of the extension.

A Westbrook for Smart/Brown/Jerebko/Holland/2018 BRK pick trade would leave the Celtics barely over the cap, excluding the impact of the other draftees who make the roster and/or a room exception signing. In order to bump Westbrook's salary, Amir Johnson would likely need to be traded away for a F/C with a smaller contract.
 

moondog80

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I'm sorry could you expound on the "significant increase" on chances of resigning him? Based on what? C's wouldn't have any more of a significant increase than OKC does now or did to resign Durant (considerably less in both cases, more so the later). Is the aura of the parquet wooing him?

I'm not trading either of what looks to be a top pick for one season of prime Michael Jordan unless he has another person coming with him in a side deal, because those picks are the only chance to win a title, either through trade or draft and one of each should be applied to each.

Doesn't the player's current team have the option of offering an extra year? So Boston's chances of signing Westbrook are greater if he's already on the team. No, it didn't help OKC keep Durant, but nothing's a guarantee, not even two high draft picks. Unless Ainge gets serious whispers that he doesn't want to be here, I'd gamble (at the right price) that being able to offer him the most $, the ability to contend, and an organization/coach players seem to really like would keep him here.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Doesn't the player's current team have the option of offering an extra year? So Boston's chances of signing Westbrook are greater if he's already on the team. No, it didn't help OKC keep Durant, but nothing's a guarantee, not even two high draft picks. Unless Ainge gets serious whispers that he doesn't want to be here, I'd gamble (at the right price) that being able to offer him the most $, the ability to contend, and an organization/coach players seem to really like would keep him here.
They have the option of offering an extra year to a guy that will be able to get a max deal again whether his contract is 4 years or 5, when it expires, likely in an environment that will have a higher cap and he then will be a ten year vet and can get a bigger portion of it. RW isn't resigning anywhere over a fifth year. He's going to go where he wants and get as much as he is allowed under the rules. It's either going to be for outside opportunities (like clothing and fashion, which is where the LA speculation comes from) or because it's a super team. The Celtics with RW and no other star is not a super team. So again, if they don't have a move lined up for another guy, it's dumb to spend the assets.
 

moondog80

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They have the option of offering an extra year to a guy that will be able to get a max deal again whether his contract is 4 years or 5, when it expires, likely in an environment that will have a higher cap and he then will be a ten year vet and can get a bigger portion of it. RW isn't resigning anywhere over a fifth year. He's going to go where he wants and get as much as he is allowed under the rules. It's either going to be for outside opportunities (like clothing and fashion, which is where the LA speculation comes from) or because it's a super team. The Celtics with RW and no other star is not a super team. So again, if they don't have a move lined up for another guy, it's dumb to spend the assets.

Russell Westbrook will be 28 in November. That's older than Deron Williams was when he was traded, by about two years. There's a good chance he'll still be max worthy in 4 or 5 years but it's far from a lock.
 

AMS25

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I don't think that OKC is going to do anything with Westbrook until the Dion Waiters situation plays out. He is a restricted free agent, and no one has been willing to offer him anything that the Thunder won't match. OKC will know more about current and future cap space once they've decided what they plan to do with Waiters (match or allow him to be an unrestricted free agent).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Russell Westbrook will be 28 in November. That's older than Deron Williams was when he was traded, by about two years. There's a good chance he'll still be max worthy in 4 or 5 years but it's far from a lock.
I'm gonna go ahead and assume he's willing to take that risk, especially since he's a far better player than Deron Williams ever was. If you'd like, we can list all the players that signed max deals at 31 or older if you like. Or apparently you haven't noticed the nature of NBA contracts and team construction lately? If it's all about the difference in money for that one year he can find it even if he shits the bed. If your hypothetical situation occurred today, here's a dozen teams that would give him a max deal without blinking an eye, even in a diminished state, either for publicity or to meet the floor. Let's start with Brooklyn.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If the main chip is one of Brooklyn's picks, I don't see how Presti makes that trade until he has a better handle of Brooklyn's final roster. I mean it's unlikely to be any good, but Presti isn't going to take that chance at least until the season starts.
 

AMS25

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If the main chip is one of Brooklyn's picks, I don't see how Presti makes that trade until he has a better handle of Brooklyn's final roster. I mean it's unlikely to be any good, but Presti isn't going to take that chance at least until the season starts.
Brooklyn's current roster is pretty pathetic. But, I'm not sure whether Presti is going to trade Westbrook in the wake of the Durant desertion. Have to keep the sell-out streak going!
 

HomeRunBaker

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You don't burn the assets for one season of maybe competing for the conference. RW doesn't put them into title contention as the team is currently built. It puts them in competition with Cleveland and still behind them.

The assets they have need to be spent on a player with control with the intent to acquire another to team with him. Otherwise you're pissing them away. If they can trade half for RW and the other half for a Griffin or Boogie, sure. You don't spend the price for RW to get to 60 wins to lose to the Cavs or even GS and then have him walk. And this team is more than a RW away from a title.
You aren't only risking one season of RW but also the collateral damage to the organization should RW bolt as our roster would look far different 12 months from now between the young players we gave up as well as the changes made to form a better fit with Westbrook running the team.
 

jmcc5400

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Before the Allen and Garnett trades, there was a huge debate on this board about trying to obtain Iverson, which, it's fair to say, would have been a catastrophic use of assets. Advocating for Westbrook or Griffin without guarantees beyond a year reminds me of the pro-Iverson argument. I get the desire for a superstar, but you only get a couple of shots at it and if you screw up you're set back 5 years. Be patient. I am much more happy keeping the cap room, letting the young roster mature some more and seeing the Brooklyn picks materialize into substantial assets for another year. It's LeBron's conference for another year. That's fine. No need to go for it now. Play the long game and this team could be set up for a long run at the top of the conference.
 

E5 Yaz

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Maybe the solution is for OKC to send Westbrook to the Clippers, who send Griffin to the Celtics ... and then have LAC and Boston send assets of various types to OKC. (Filler added where needed.)

Maybe not
 

Eddie Jurak

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Maybe the solution is for OKC to send Westbrook to the Clippers, who send Griffin to the Celtics ... and then have LAC and Boston send assets of various types to OKC. (Filler added where needed.)

Maybe not
I was thinking the same thing.
 

moondog80

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I'm gonna go ahead and assume he's willing to take that risk, especially since he's a far better player than Deron Williams ever was. If you'd like, we can list all the players that signed max deals at 31 or older if you like. Or apparently you haven't noticed the nature of NBA contracts and team construction lately? If it's all about the difference in money for that one year he can find it even if he shits the bed. If your hypothetical situation occurred today, here's a dozen teams that would give him a max deal without blinking an eye, even in a diminished state, either for publicity or to meet the floor. Let's start with Brooklyn.
So if the C's traded for Westbrook, would their chances of signing him long term go up, go down, or stay the same?
 

Nick Kaufman

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If Westbrook is 28, that gives me pause in another way, because I can't think of another superstar who relies on his athleticism as much as he does and how long is this going to last? Another 3 years? How is he going to adjust his game after that? Are three great years worth it?
 

Grogan's NeckRol

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If Westbrook is 28, that gives me pause in another way, because I can't think of another superstar who relies on his athleticism as much as he does and how long is this going to last? Another 3 years? How is he going to adjust his game after that? Are three great years worth it?
Agreed. Particularly with long odds of winning a title in that time frame with GS and the Cavs loaded. C's are in a good but weird place being a good team now but I think the best C's team with the current roster and assets is a couple years away. Not getting Durant makes me not want to give up what it would likely take to land Westbrook.
 

AMS25

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So if the C's traded for Westbrook, would their chances of signing him long term go up, go down, or stay the same?
I would have to say no one knows. Westbrook only reluctantly talks to the press, and even told a local reporter, "I just don't like you." Unlike Durant, Westbrook has an entourage of four: his mom, his dad, his brother, and his wife. They don't talk to the press either.
 

AMS25

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Maybe the solution is for OKC to send Westbrook to the Clippers, who send Griffin to the Celtics ... and then have LAC and Boston send assets of various types to OKC. (Filler added where needed.)

Maybe not
OKC could trade Westbrook straight up for Griffin (OK native), and then OKC and the LAC could try to sell each on that old "coming home" narrative.
 

Joe D Reed30

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Pretty interesting piece from Sean Deveney at the Sporting News. Reignites the Blake-to-Boston rumors, but the more interesting part is that the Celtics are apparently trying to do so without giving up either Nets pick. Brings up the previously discussed 3-way trade, but doesn't mention player.

Obviously, all for that if possible. Keeping Nets picks could facilitate another deal. OK, starting to dream too much. But sure does sound like Danny's making a move at some point before season starts.
 

the moops

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I'm sorry could you expound on the "significant increase" on chances of resigning him? Based on what?
I think this would be based on history. When given the chance of bolting for less money, or staying for more money, most free agents have chosen to stay with current team to maximize their earnings. Of course there are examples of that not happening, and a couple big names recently have chosen to do so, but, historically, players go for the most money.
 

zenter

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After Durant left OKC and the rumors started heating up, both Woj and Lowe obliquely referred to the idea that they don't think Westbrook is as big a flight risk as people think. The implication from both was that he loves being the man in the community, helping out, and being a role model. No, he doesn't love the press, but it seems he enjoys his role in OKC and trying to be a leader. This could both douse any smoke around LA or Boston (in that order).

But who knows.
 

DJnVa

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Pretty interesting piece from Sean Deveney at the Sporting News. Reignites the Blake-to-Boston rumors, but the more interesting part is that the Celtics are apparently trying to do so without giving up either Nets pick.
I'm sure they are. Because that would be the best possible deal for them.

But I would imagine that unless they give up one of them, that's gonna be a no go.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I would pay serious coin to watch Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook on the same team. They would obliterate the league record for Angry Glares At A Teammate and my over under for a locker room fight between the two would be a week into the regular season.
 

tbb345

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After Durant left OKC and the rumors started heating up, both Woj and Lowe obliquely referred to the idea that they don't think Westbrook is as big a flight risk as people think. The implication from both was that he loves being the man in the community, helping out, and being a role model. No, he doesn't love the press, but it seems he enjoys his role in OKC and trying to be a leader. This could both douse any smoke around LA or Boston (in that order).

But who knows.
Woj has said that on a few different podcasts but when Lowe talked about it on The Lowe Post he was talking about other media sources (specifically Royce Young and Woj) thinking that. Just some context
 

zenter

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Woj has said that on a few different podcasts but when Lowe talked about it on The Lowe Post he was talking about other media sources (specifically Royce Young and Woj) thinking that. Just some context
Good context. So we're talking about Woj and Young, not Woj and Lowe. And probably Woj got it from Young too?
 

tbb345

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I'm sure they are. Because that would be the best possible deal for them.

But I would imagine that unless they give up one of them, that's gonna be a no go.
That seems like its a deal breaker from both sides then. The Clippers (or Kings if this Rudy Gay rumor is to be believed) are going to want players that can play right away in addition to the Brooklyn pick (Imagine Bradley, Crowder, Smart, or some combination of the 3).
With KD going to the Dubs. in addition the great contracts Bradley, Smart, and Crowder have. I am not sure it's worth it to give up the Brooklyn pick and other assets to get a player who just gets us a bit deeper into the playoffs before we lose
 

DJnVa

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The Celtics are listed in a lot of these hypotheticals because they have the Nets picks. If they can somehow land one of these guys without it, then there's a lot more teams in the hunt.
 

tbb345

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Good context. So we're talking about Woj and Young, not Woj and Lowe. And probably Woj got it from Young too?
Only mentioned it because Royce Young isn't thought of too highly around these parts while Lowe and Woj are basically the gold standards for NBA reporting. Didn't mean to seem pedantic or shit on the point
 

DannyDarwinism

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Only mentioned it because Royce Young isn't thought of too highly around these parts while Lowe and Woj are basically the gold standards for NBA reporting. Didn't mean to seem pedantic or shit on the point
Any concrete reason for this? I had the impression that he's pretty plugged in when it comes to OKC players.
 

tbb345

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The Celtics are listed in a lot of these hypotheticals because they have the Nets picks. If they can somehow land one of these guys without it, then there's a lot more teams in the hunt.
Agreed. It seems like the Nuggets and Clippers match up so well for a Griffin deal (Gallinari, Barton and Lauvergne or Nurkic) that that's where he will go if he is actually on the block.
 

zenter

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Only mentioned it because Royce Young isn't thought of too highly around these parts while Lowe and Woj are basically the gold standards for NBA reporting. Didn't mean to seem pedantic or shit on the point
Didn't take it that way - apologies if I came across as sarcastic. :)

Royce Young is merely criticized for being a homer who was too emotional about Durant leaving. I don't think his reporting is considered inferior.
 

tbb345

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Any concrete reason for this? I had the impression that he's pretty plugged in when it comes to OKC players.
Judging from the reactions to that KD article he wrote for ESPN, people don't think too highly of his reporting or sources. I tend to agree with you
 

Pxer

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Agreed. Particularly with long odds of winning a title in that time frame with GS and the Cavs loaded. C's are in a good but weird place being a good team now but I think the best C's team with the current roster and assets is a couple years away. Not getting Durant makes me not want to give up what it would likely take to land Westbrook.
Isn't part of the argument in going for it now that the IT & AB & JC contracts will never have more value than they do now? The Celtics could theoretically not end up with a top three pick with any of BRK picks, and then you've got a capped out roster without superstar prospects.
 

Grogan's NeckRol

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Isn't part of the argument in going for it now that the IT & AB & JC contracts will never have more value than they do now? The Celtics could theoretically not end up with a top three pick with any of BRK picks, and then you've got a capped out roster without superstar prospects.
Absolutely. But I don't think Westbrook gets you there with the rosters GS and Cleveland are rolling. I would rather gamble on the Nets picks panning out then adding another star to Westbrook along with Westbrook signing up long term.
 

amfox1

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There's also the issue of taking in Griffin's salary. He'll make $20.1mm next year, which means that the Celtics will need to send out at least $15.1mm in salary in any deal. That could be done by trading Bradley ($8.3mm), Crowder ($6.3mm) and Young ($1.8mm), for instance, but then adding a BRK pick on top seems like a very high price for 1 year of Griffin. Maybe LAC would take their 2019 draft pick back instead.

BOS gets Griffin
SAC gets Crowder and Young
LAC gets Bradley, Gay and 2019 LAC 1st rounder

BOS lineup - Horford, Griffin, Jerebko, Smart, Thomas
BOS bench - Johnson, Olynyk, Brown, Hunter, Rozier +1
BOS bench/D-league - Mickey, Bentil, Jackson, Nader
Europe - Yabusele, Zizic

BOS would need to sign up a wing shooter for the room exception.

It saps the team of its depth and causes a severe lack of wing shooting, so I don't see this trade working out.
Given Devaney's article, bumping this analysis.
 

tbb345

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Given Devaney's article, bumping this analysis.
I wonder if this trade could work if you add in more 1st rounders (anything other than the BKN picks) and take out Crowder. I highly doubt it but Crowder is so valuable to the Celtics. He's pretty much their only playable wing (unless you want Smart there or are really high on Jaylen Brown) and him being traded creates a huge void there
 

chilidawg

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Given Devaney's article, bumping this analysis.
How much better does Griffin make us than Crowder and Bradley? We get very thin at the 3 if Crowder goes. If we're going after Griffin then we're all in for the short term. I would think that something like Johnson (12m), Bradley and the 2018 Nets pick makes more sense for the Celtics.
 

luckiestman

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How much better does Griffin make us than Crowder and Bradley? We get very thin at the 3 if Crowder goes. If we're going after Griffin then we're all in for the short term. I would think that something like Johnson (12m), Bradley and the 2018 Nets pick makes more sense for the Celtics.

I love Crowder and Bradley but I would say Blake makes us a lot better
 

CreightonGubanich

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Blake Griffin is one of the 12-15 best players in the league. If you can get him, you get him and find another Jae Crowder elsewhere. That's not to say I'd include a BRK pick for him without some assurance he'd commit long term, but neither Crowder nor Bradley would give me any pause.