Celebrating What Is

InstaFace

MDLzera
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Sep 27, 2016
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This team sucks and is going to be at worst 12-4. It's nice to be a Patriots' fan.
Unless you count the Eagles and Cowboys (who we overestimated going into the season), and counting a team we blew out who ended up good, we had 6 actually-good teams on the schedule - Steelers, Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Bills again. We won the first 2, lost the next 3 while looking decent but outclassed, and still have time to get better and prove it next week.
 

m0ckduck

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Jul 20, 2005
858
Unless you count the Eagles and Cowboys (who we overestimated going into the season), and counting a team we blew out who ended up good, we had 6 actually-good teams on the schedule - Steelers, Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Bills again. We won the first 2, lost the next 3 while looking decent but outclassed, and still have time to get better and prove it next week.
By DVOA, Cowboys and Eagles and even the Browns are all better than Texans. And I think it's hard to support a definition of 'good' that includes Pit but excludes Dallas, notwithstanding the fact that the Steelers have one more win.

The Houston game I look at as a case of the team randomly laying an egg in a road game. Happens to most every team most every year. Throw that out and our record against contending teams tracks pretty much with how you'd expect given their records, point differential, DVOA, etc. We looked overmatched vs. the strongest contender (Ravens), looked fairly dominant against the weakest of these contenders (PIT and CLE * ) and looked 'competitive' in the other games (BUF, DAL, PHI, KC). You could make the case that with better officiating, we might have swept these 'competitive games'; you could also make the case that each of these games has raised some serious concerns, and that we've largely skated by on the strength of better coaching and turnover differential. Bottom line: against good teams, we've looked like exactly what we are-- a top team that isn't a dominant, prohibitive SB favorite.

* I'm defining contenders here as 'teams that have recently been in the wildcard chase, or better'. You can kick CLE out if you like and the overall point still stands.
 
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BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
7,276
Beware playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Under TB/BB, the Pats have been to the Super Bowl 9 times. Here's their opponents, and then what has happened to those opponents following that game.

SB 36 - Pats beat the 14-2 Rams 20-17. The next year, the Rams went 7-9.
SB 38 - Pats beat the 11-5 Panthers 32-29. The next year, the Panthers went 7-9.
SB 39 - Pats beat the 13-3 Eagles 24-14. The next year, the Eagles went 6-10.
SB 42 - Pats lost to the 10-6 Giants 17-14. The next year, the Giants went 12-4 and went to the playoffs, but then went 8-8 the next year.
SB 46 - Pats lost to the 9-7 Giants 21-17. The next year, the Giants went 9-7 and missed the playoffs.
SB 49 - Pats beat the 12-4 Seahawks 28-24. The next year, the Seahawks went 10-6 and lost in the divisional round.
SB 51 - Pats beat the 11-5 Falcons 34-28. The next year, the Falcons went 10-6, followed by 9-7 and are presently 5-9.
SB 52 - Pats lost to the 13-3 Eagles 41-33. The next year, the Eagles went 9-7, and are presently 7-7.
SB 53 - Pats beat the 13-3 Rams 13-3. This year the Rams are 8-6 and are on the outside looking in with respect to the playoffs.

So for the teams that played the Pats in the SB, their win total the following year were as follows: -7, -4, -7, +2, 0, -2, -1, -4, and -5 so far. That's a collective 28 wins worse the following year for these teams.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
7,276
The control would be what happened to the loser of non-Pats Super Bowls.
Well just comparing it to when the Patriots lost in the Super Bowl....

2008 (following SB 42): Pats, minus Tom Brady, go 11-5 with *Matt Cassel* at QB.
2013 (following SB 46): Pats go 12-4 and lose in the AFCCG.
2018 (following SB 52): Pats go 11-5 and win the Super Bowl.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
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Sep 27, 2016
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The control would be what happened to the loser of non-Pats Super Bowls.
Yeah I mean, regression to the mean is what you'd expect for what are basically random number generators year-to-year (Patriots excepted). Parity is a ruthless drug.

That's not a fun post for this fun thread, but we've got plenty of legitimate stuff to celebrate.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
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New York City
Yeah I mean, regression to the mean is what you'd expect for what are basically random number generators year-to-year (Patriots excepted). Parity is a ruthless drug.

That's not a fun post for this fun thread, but we've got plenty of legitimate stuff to celebrate.
Yeah, I think it's only around half of Super Bowl winners that even make the playoffs the following season, so the story is less that the Patriots put teams into a funk by beating them in the Super Bowl, and more just that the Patriots' consistent level of success over the past 20 years is absolutely amazing and stands a very good chance of never being replicated once this run ends.
 

ifmanis5

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Sep 29, 2007
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The Pats have won the East every year that Jules has been on the team, 2009-2019.

ESPN Stats:
The Patriots avoid losing consecutive home games for the 1st time since 2008. The Pats have gone 103 straight home games including playoffs without a 2-game losing streak. The next closest streak in NFL history is 88 games, done by the Dolphins from 1976-86.
 

Seels

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Jul 20, 2005
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heh. So if Brady plays next year there's a chance he's top 3 for all of them?

Brady has 249 wins all time. Peyton has 200. Can basically add Peyton and Luck's career wins together to get Brady.
 
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BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
7,276
A glorified scrimmage with Stidham playing the whole 4th quarter would be a nice pre-bye Christmas present!
If Chicago knocks off KC tonight, the Pats can truly rest players. Since I don't think that will happen, I do expect the starters to play as the Pats would need to win next week to secure a bye but yeah, would be GREAT if Stidham gets all the fourth quarter next week in a game where the Pats are comfortably ahead by 30.
 

Saints Rest

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If Chicago knocks off KC tonight, the Pats can truly rest players. Since I don't think that will happen, I do expect the starters to play as the Pats would need to win next week to secure a bye but yeah, would be GREAT if Stidham gets all the fourth quarter next week in a game where the Pats are comfortably ahead by 30.
As long as we are wishing for a Xmas Miracle, how about Baltimore losing to Cleveland and Pitt?
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
7,276
As long as we are wishing for a Xmas Miracle, how about Baltimore losing to Cleveland and Pitt?
There’s unlikely and there’s truly miraculous.

The Bears game is in Chicago. They’ve got a puncher’s chance. Not counting on it though.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
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I think the 2 seed is better. There’s a path where the Patriots only need to play 1 of Baltimore, Buffalo, KC.
A 2 seed likely plays KC and then Baltimore on road.

A 1 seed likely plays both Hou and KC OR Baltimore at home.

Show your math.
 

mostman

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Jun 3, 2003
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A 2 seed likely plays KC and then Baltimore on road.

A 1 seed likely plays both Hou and KC OR Baltimore at home.

Show your math.
KC Texans - Bills win go to the 1 seed. Making the path for the 1 seed Bills then Ravens (both at home). 2 seed KC @Ravens.

Texans KC - Bills win go to the 1 seed. 1 seed is still Bills Ravens. 2 seed is now Texans Ravens.

I would take either 2 seed scenarios over Bills and Ravens, even losing the home game. Especially since getting to play the Texans to get to the AFC championship would be a late Christmas present.

I suppose if you think the Bills are worse than KC, then perhaps you think the 1 seed is better.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
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It's more that while I think the Bills might be better than KC on neutral field, the game won't be on neutral field...
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
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Any scenario that involves going on the road in the playoffs is exponentially worse than any scenario that involves the AFCCG going through Gillette.
 

mostman

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Jun 3, 2003
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Which team out of the Chiefs, Texans, or Bills have the best shot of going to Baltimore and winning?
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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Been sick all weekend, so I watched more non-pats than I have all season.
It's worth noting how fortunate and spoiled we are.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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Franchise records for point differential:
2007 +315 (wow)
2012 +226
2010 +205
2019 +198

So it seems very likely that this team will end up #3 on the list, with an outside chance of #2. But let's write them off since they suck or something.
 

Mollyspop

lurker
Sep 21, 2019
18
Franchise records for point differential:
2007 +315 (wow)
2012 +226
2010 +205
2019 +198

So it seems very likely that this team will end up #3 on the list, with an outside chance of #2. But let's write them off since they suck or something.
...and the SB W-L record of all of those years is...?

What's the SB record for Pats' teams with their lowest points allowed over the last 19 years?
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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...and the SB W-L record of all of those years is...?

What's the SB record for Pats' teams with their lowest points allowed over the last 19 years?
Year: Points allowed (season result)
2006: 237 (12-4, lost in AFCCG)
2003: 238 (14-2, won the Super Bowl)
2016: 250 (14-2, won the Super Bowl)
2004: 260 (14-2, won the Super Bowl)
2001: 242 (11-5, won the Super Bowl)

So interesting....the years the Pats have been great on defense, they've pretty much kicked ass.

Presently at 198 points allowed, #1 in the NFL.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Jun 27, 2012
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This decade win totals year by year: 14, 13, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14, 13, 11, 12 (with one more to play). We will never see anything like that again.

Before BB got here the most games they ever won in a season was 11.
 

Hoya81

Member
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Feb 3, 2010
4,325
Franchise records for point differential:
2007 +315 (wow)
2012 +226
2010 +205
2019 +198

So it seems very likely that this team will end up #3 on the list, with an outside chance of #2. But let's write them off since they suck or something.
I’d forgotten how good that 2012 team was. Started out 3-3, flipped a switch and started destroying teams down the stretch to finish 12-4.
 

Seels

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Those games they lost in 2012 were all super close and really poorly officiated. They were some better officiating from 16-0.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Those games they lost in 2012 were all super close and really poorly officiated. They were some better officiating from 16-0.
Agreed, but they legit got their butts kicked by Ravens in that playoff loss too.