Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum

StuckOnYouk

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I still can't imagine NY letting him walk if the final offer is 8/200. I still think they'd sign that push comes to shove.
 

Dionysus

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AMS25 said:
Mariners fans are so excited that they followed Cano's plane to the West Coast. Hate to see them disappointed.
Shades of DiceK.

So the Mariners will sign him and the fans will end up disappointed
 

Sampo Gida

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maufman said:
 
How much value do you think Cano places on the ability to test the market in his age 38, 39 and 40 seasons? I'm guessing the answer is "almost none."
 
If they're willing to go 7/175, I think they'll bite the bullet and go 10/210 to get the deal done.
 
I agree.  I mean, if you are willing to pay 75 million on the posting fee to get a low AAV on a SP'er, why not just tack on the extra 3 years and hope you have some young players to subsidize the salary in those years.  Also, as someone said earlier, 25 million AAV is not going to seem as much in 2022, and the 189 threshold is probably over 200 million then
 

Comeback Kid

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E5 Yaz said:
Right, I was just about to post that maybe he was referencing that LAAA came out of nowhere to sign the biggest free agents the past two offseasons, Pujols and Hamilton.

Edit: quote didn't work on phone but was responding to the Crasnick and Bowden tweets.
 

Dionysus

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Comeback Kid said:
Right, I was just about to post that maybe he was referencing that LAAA came out of nowhere to sign the biggest free agents the past two offseasons, Pujols and Hamilton.
There is no way Angels can afford him. Not if they ever want to extend Trout
 

Dionysus

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Comeback Kid said:
I wouldn't rule it out in this climate. And Arte Moreno pushed for the Pujols and Hamilton signings.
And look how they've turned out.

I just can't see it happening. Crazy TV money or no.
 

snowmanny

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StuckOnYouk said:
I still can't imagine NY letting him walk if the final offer is 8/200. I still think they'd sign that push comes to shove.
This is basically where I'm at. Is Cano worth a win/season more than Ellsbury over seven years? I'm pretty bullish on Ellsbury - I think his power is likely to return - but I think it's hard not to say yes to that question. So 7/188 isn't difficult to imagine when Ellsbury got 7/153-it's 5 million/year more. And from there it's a small jump to 8/200.
 

nattysez

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Lowrielicious said:
Choo?
Because what they really need is another poor defensive outfielder/DH type on big money.
 
That's Heyman carrying a little water for Boras.  The MFY signing Choo when they have gaping holes in their rotation would not make a lick of sense (nb - this was also true before they signed Ells).
 

RedOctober3829

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jon abbey

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snowmanny said:
This is basically where I'm at. Is Cano worth a win/season more than Ellsbury over seven years? I'm pretty bullish on Ellsbury - I think his power is likely to return - but I think it's hard not to say yes to that question. So 7/188 isn't difficult to imagine when Ellsbury got 7/153-it's 5 million/year more. And from there it's a small jump to 8/200.
 
This is all true, but I think NY was worried they'd get neither, and I think Boras convinced them that Ellsbury would sell at least as many tickets as Cano (sometimes that dude seriously earns his cut). Cano was at 9/$252 at that point to NY, that is more than the bloated deals of Ellsbury and McCann put together. 
 
I am a huge Cano fan, this remains the same no-win situation it's been for NY since day 1. Either they let him go and hurt themselves near-term or they sign him and hurt themselves long-term, not a fun decision to make. 
 

jon abbey

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RedOctober3829 said:
"The Yankees don't seem to want him," Jose Cano told the Daily News when asked about his son’s status with the Yankees.
 
Heh, I wish someone didn't want me for $165M. 
 

JakeRae

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YouLookAdopted said:
+Ellsbury -Cano = net loss for New York. Good for Seattle if they make this happen.
 
Cano is Ellsbury without the two traumatic injuries. When healthy, they are equivalently talented players.
 

JakeRae

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RedOctober3829 said:
 
Good point re: Heyman.  NY taxes vs. no income tax in WA
 
 
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS36s
Washington is one of 7 states with no state income tax. so that $225M may be worth $240M. (every little bit helps) #cano

 

 
The income tax thing is overblown. What's the difference in endorsement value between being a Yankee and being a Mariner? 
 

glennhoffmania

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JakeRae said:
 
Cano is Ellsbury without the two traumatic injuries. When healthy, they are equivalently talented players.
 
Eh, it's pretty close but I'd disagree.  Cano is clearly a better hitter and I'm not sure that Ellsbury's edge in fielding and base running makes up that difference.
 
RedOctober3829 said:
 
Good point re: Heyman.  NY taxes vs. no income tax in WA
 
 
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS36s
Washington is one of 7 states with no state income tax. so that $225M may be worth $240M. (every little bit helps) #cano

 

 
 
I really wish people would stop saying shit like this when they have no clue what they're talking about.  This is not how it works.
 
Referring to Heyman, not Red.
 

RedOctober3829

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Meanwhile, the New York Yankees are growing increasingly resigned to the likelihood of a future without Cano, sources told ESPNNewYork.com.
In the event Cano leaves, the Yankees are preparing to move forward on several other free agents while considering the possibility of opening the 2014 season with journeyman Kelly Johnson as their starting second baseman.
Sources familiar with the club's thinking told ESPNNewYork.com that the Yankees believe the Mariners are about to offer Cano a nine-year, $225 million contract -- well below Cano's reported demand of $310 million over 10 years but significantly higher than New York's offer in the range of $175 million over seven years.
"If that's what the [Mariners'] offe . r is, he's gone," said a source, who added that he believed Cano would go to the highest bidder and that the Yankees were determined not to go higher than seven years or $175 million for their team leader in batting average (.314), home runs (27) and RBIs (107) in 2013.
A spokesman for Cano's agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, declined comment on the ongoing negotiations, but hinted that a deal could be imminent.
"Let's just say I'll be on alert from here on in," he said
 
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10086275/robinson-cano-meet-seattle-mariners
 

BoSox Rule

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Being a Yankee has probably hurt Cano as far as branding and "face of a franchise" has gone. He's been the best player on the team for God knows how long and it's still about Jeter, and until October, Rivera and then you have Sideshow Rodriguez.
 

StuckOnYouk

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RedOctober3829 said:
I disagree.  Cano is a much more talented player.  It's not that close either.
 
Yep
 
Last 4 years Cano has put up about a 29 WAR; Ellsbury has put up a 21 WAR for his six-year career.
 
Now I know Ellsbury has been banged up and that doesn't help, but it's probably not safe to assume that his 30-35 year old span will be much healthier for him than his 24-29 year old span. Maybe somewhat, but not much.
 

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BoSox Rule said:
Being a Yankee has probably hurt Cano as far as branding and "face of a franchise" has gone. He's been the best player on the team for God knows how long and it's still about Jeter, and until October, Rivera and then you have Sideshow Rodriguez.
 
Well, his English isn't great either.
 

JakeRae

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RedOctober3829 said:
I disagree.  Cano is a much more talented player.  It's not that close either.
 
We can agree to disagree. Ellsbury's season last year was in line with reasonable expectations for a healthy Ellsbury. That player is a 6 win player. If his power returns, he could be better than that.
 
Cano is a much better offensive player, but Ellsbury is a much better defensive player and a much better baserunner. Ellsbury has, by far, the best single season of the two. (Which was actually better offensively than any single season Cano has had.) They had similar overall value a year ago. The big difference is that Cano has been healthy for the last 4 years and Ellsbury has missed 2 of them. If you believe that means Cano is less of a health risk going forward, that makes him worth more. If you don't, he's really not. 
 

BoSox Rule

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Then I'm sure Ichiro has advised him to go to Seattle, through a translator of course.
 

StuckOnYouk

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JakeRae said:
 
We can agree to disagree. Ellsbury's season last year was in line with reasonable expectations for a healthy Ellsbury. That player is a 6 win player. If his power returns, he could be better than that.
 
Cano is a much better offensive player, but Ellsbury is a much better defensive player and a much better baserunner. Ellsbury has, by far, the best single season of the two. (Which was actually better offensively than any single season Cano has had.) They had similar overall value a year ago. The big difference is that Cano has been healthy for the last 4 years and Ellsbury has missed 2 of them. If you believe that means Cano is less of a health risk going forward, that makes him worth more. If you don't, he's really not. 
 
Not only is health an issue for Ellsbury, but is it possible that his one monster year was a result of PEDs which he is likely off of now (if he was using).
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
The endorsement value is also overblown.  In this day and age, if you are a big enough star you will maximize your endorsement value.
 
Cano already has his endorsement roots in NY and even if he came back to NY, why would anyone be more excited about getting Cano to endorse their product than Ellsbury? Ellsbury is new blood in town. Cano isn't a megastar here and I'm not sure what would change all of a sudden. My next two Yankee tees won't be Cano.
 

glennhoffmania

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I'll be shocked if this happens.  First, that a team was willing to give Cano over $200m.  Second, that of all their big FAs in recent history Cano is the guy they're going to let go.
 

JakeRae

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StuckOnYouk said:
 
Yep
 
Last 4 years Cano has put up about a 29 WAR; Ellsbury has put up a 21 WAR for his six-year career.
 
Now I know Ellsbury has been banged up and that doesn't help, but it's probably not safe to assume that his 30-35 year old span will be much healthier for him than his 24-29 year old span. Maybe somewhat, but not much.
Can I play too?
 
Over the last 3 years, Ellsbury's fWAR/650 PA is 6.3. Cano's is 6.0.
 
Or, did you miss the part of my post where I claimed that Cano was Ellsbury without the traumatic injuries. Adding up a counting stat really only serves to show that Cano has been healthy the past 4 years whereas Ellsbury has not, which was implicit in my initial post.
 

Wingack

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StuckOnYouk said:
 
Not only is health an issue for Ellsbury, but is it possible that his one monster year was a result of PEDs which he is likely off of now (if he was using).
 
 
Well, there have been rumors about Cano too. That stuff really isn't even a factor anymore in these discussions.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
@YankeesWFAN: Person close to Cano said he's upset with how much Ellsbury got compared to his offer. NYY not feeling optimistic but prepared to move on.
 
If true, that's rich.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
@YankeesWFAN: Person close to Cano said he's upset with how much Ellsbury got compared to his offer. NYY not feeling optimistic but prepared to move on.
 
I so want this to be true, because it means Boras's master plan worked. He got Ellsbury more than anyone else was going to pay, and he'd have one-upped Jay-Z by having a role in screwing the Cano talks.
 
Why the NYY felt they had to move that quickly on Ellsbury, when no one would match that deal, is beyond me