JakeRae said:
Yes, but I don't buy into this theory that some of you have that Ellsbury's injuries don't count. Guess what. He might have more collisions in his future.
Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum
- Thread starter bankshot1
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Yes, but I don't buy into this theory that some of you have that Ellsbury's injuries don't count. Guess what. He might have more collisions in his future.
Good point re: Heyman. NY taxes vs. no income tax in WA
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS36s
Washington is one of 7 states with no state income tax. so that $225M may be worth $240M. (every little bit helps) #cano
Pretty sure players have to file income tax returns for every state in which they played. Going to the AL West means a lot more games played in CA as opposed to Florida, Maryland or even Massachusetts. It's probably a higher income tax rate than all of those places. I'm not saying there's not a tax benefit to playing in Washington state, just that it's probably a bit overstated by Heyman.
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS36s
Washington is one of 7 states with no state income tax. so that $225M may be worth $240M. (every little bit helps) #cano
Pretty sure players have to file income tax returns for every state in which they played. Going to the AL West means a lot more games played in CA as opposed to Florida, Maryland or even Massachusetts. It's probably a higher income tax rate than all of those places. I'm not saying there's not a tax benefit to playing in Washington state, just that it's probably a bit overstated by Heyman.
There's no state income tax in Washington and Seattle's weather isn't nearly as bad as people make it out to be (it's similar to Amsterdam and Paris but better in nearly every category including annual hours of sun) but even as a Seattle local I find it hard to believe Cano really wants to be in "south Alaska." Especially coming from New York.
On the plus side for him, though, there are a ton of private islands for sale here, and for 240 million and no state income tax you could easily set yourself up as a Bond villain.
On the plus side for the Red Sox, one of two things is going to happen. The Yankees are going to lose Cano, or they are going to have to overpay.
It's not as big as some people make it out to be, but there is still a huge difference between paying roughly 33% in Seattle vs roughly 72% in New York for half of your salary. New York also has a municipal income tax, BTW.
On the plus side for him, though, there are a ton of private islands for sale here, and for 240 million and no state income tax you could easily set yourself up as a Bond villain.
On the plus side for the Red Sox, one of two things is going to happen. The Yankees are going to lose Cano, or they are going to have to overpay.
YouLookAdopted said:
It's not as big as some people make it out to be, but there is still a huge difference between paying roughly 33% in Seattle vs roughly 72% in New York for half of your salary. New York also has a municipal income tax, BTW.
Wingack said:
The difference being that Cano has been a force every single year while Ellsbury had his Brady anderson moment.
2013 Ellsbury was still a damn good player, but not 2011 good and I would not use 2011 as an indicator in trying to project his future with NY for his age 30-36 seasons. .
StuckOnYouk said:
That's fine. I recognize that it is not a stance that everyone agrees with and there are valid reasons to disagree with it. However, pointing to cumulative counting stat figures to rebut the proposition that they are similar players once the injuries are accounted for makes no sense. Also, that 3-year WAR/650 PA figure, which shows Ellsbury being a bit better than Cano, doesn't completely ignore his injuries. His performance in 2012 was significantly impacted by his shoulder injury and that is part of that comparison.
As for the collisions thing, so might any player. Unless Ellsbury is more likely to suffer collision injuries than Cano, the fact that either might suffer them is irrelevant. But, to argue against myself, Ellsbury's basestealing and position both probably make him marginally more likely to suffer a collision based injury. I just think the significance of that impact is vanishingly small on how the two players should be valued.
Also, my personal impressions are adjusted a bit relative to the rate stats for Cano's consistency and some discounting of Ellsbury's 2011. Thus, I am not arguing that Ellsbury is better. In fact, I'll even accept an argument that Cano is more valuable. It's just, IMHO, not a very big value gap and nowhere near as large as what it sounds like their pay gap is going to be.
JakeRae said:
At his best, Ellsbury is a good as Cano is all the time. Ellsbury has 2 years with a WAR above 3. Cano has 7. Maybe Ellsbury's injuries are fluky, but Cano gets a lot of credit for missing fewer games in the last 7 years than Ellsbury missed this past September.
StuckOnYouk said:
I wouldn't do that.
But the fact that Ellsbury may have done roids one year while Cano may have been doing them this whole time doesn't help your argument at all. In fact, it could very well be a reason that the Yankees aren't meeting his contract demands.
YouLookAdopted said:
Yep.
Of note, there's an income tax in Arizona but not Florida, which means that the month-and-a-half of Spring Training will be a lot more expensive for a Mariner.
Euclis20 said:
At his best, Ellsbury is much better than Cano. Ellsbury's best season, he was a 9 WAR player. He played centerfield, stole bases, and posted a higher wOBA and wRC+ than Cano ever has. In other words, your first sentence is objectively false.
Second, you are absolutely correct. Cano does get a lot of credit for not missing lots of games. When it comes time to talk about his HoF candidacy, I will give him that credit. Cano has been more valuable. I do not think that supports the claim that Cano is more skilled or that he will be more valuable.
This was the Ether of contract negotiations. Boras's son across the belly, I prove you lost already.
Comparing Cano to Ellsbury is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison anyway. Cano's numbers, as a second baseman, are more valuable for his position than Ellsbury's. As a quick example, 7 2B put up fWARs greater than 3 in 2013, while 27 OFs did so...
JakeRae said:
According to Fangraphs. According to b-ref, in 2011, Ellsbury put up a WAR of 8.1 Pretty great, but not as good as Cano in 2010 (8.2) or 2012 (8.5).
I'll say Ellsbury's absolute peak is about the same as Cano's absolute peak. That's the only thing they have in common.
But the Mariners share a division with two Texas teams who also don't have a state income tax....YouLookAdopted said:
Wingack said:
Maybe I'm not being clear with my point.
I only brought up PED's because if people are going to try to use the past 3 years as comparisons, the one outlier between the two players is Ellsbury's 2011 season. I have far greater confidence that over the next 3-4 years Cano is going to be the player he was then Ellsbury simply because Ellsbury career has been a roller coaster due to injuries and a monster year that came out of nowhere due to perhaps PEDs.
His ceiling over the next 3 years for the Yankees is likely a 5-6 WAR player per year IF he stays healthy while Cano's ceiling is likely 7-8 without much question of injuries.
cannonball 1729 said:
Yeah, they draw checks every 2 weeks when the season starts. They don't get paid a salary in the post season either, just a share of the post season revenue. So a guy like Cano who will make 4 million a month in the regular season gets less than 400K for a month of post season work. He might prefer the added vacation time with Seattle, although he would get that in NY too if the 189'ers have their way.
Sox and Rocks said:
Your point may still stand, but your quick example might not represent substantive evidence. MLB teams have to start 3 outfielders per game, but only 1 second basemen. Normalizing for that fact, you'd get 7 second basemen (relative to 30 starters) or 23% putting up fWAR's greater than 3 in 2013 versus 27 outfielders (relative to 90 starters) or 30%.
Given the specific skill set associated with being a CF, it might bemore instructive to look at CF's who put up fWAR's greater than 3 in 2013 (11, I believe, or 37%).
I've heard this said many times and I simply don't get it. In this day and age, I don't think it really matters where you are - if you're talented, you'll be noticed. Cano already has name recognition, being the one to turn around a franchise (not that he'd be the only reason <Felix>) only makes his star bigger.JakeRae said:
Besides, if he signs a contract valued over $200M does he really need any endorsement deals? Instead, he can focus on finishing up a HOF career.
agreedRedOctober3829 said:
You either do 2b vs CF or Infielders vs Outfielders. 2b vs all OFs isn't really a fair comparison.Sox and Rocks said:
AndrewMarchand Andrew Marchand
Cashman is rappelling with Bobby V here in Stamford, CT
Forget Cano, forget Ellsbury. This news means that the Yankees are truly cursed for 2014.
Cashman is rappelling with Bobby V here in Stamford, CT
Forget Cano, forget Ellsbury. This news means that the Yankees are truly cursed for 2014.
Positional adjustment is already made in WAR. If you are going to use WAR, you can't then say "oh, but this WAR is more valuable than that WAR" WAR is essentially equal. It already accounts for positional scarcity. You can claim that it doesn't do it well, ok fine, whatever, but you can't just double count and be like "There I fixed it."
Mariners need to say take it now or they are pulling the offer. Cano is only using them in my opinion.
Can't link from phone, but Mark Feinsand says Jayz asked for a 10th year and the Mariners president exploded and they will not be signing him.
edit: http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/1.1539636
edit: http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/1.1539636
Mark Feinsand @FeinsandNYDN 12m
BREAKING NEWS: Cano and Mariners talks break down, free agent not signing with Mariners http://nydn.us/1cq1SZh%C2
Retweeted by Jerry Crasnick
BREAKING NEWS: Cano and Mariners talks break down, free agent not signing with Mariners http://nydn.us/1cq1SZh%C2
Retweeted by Jerry Crasnick
Feinsand on WFAN with B&C, -a 9/225 was all but done, BUT Jay-Z demanded a 10th year, 10/252, (what ARod left Seattle for) and Mariner CEO exploded and said "we're out"
Completely agree.rembrat said:
Part of me says Cano has never been serious about leaving NY and only using SEA, but a bigger part of me says Jay-Z is out of his depth. If SEA truly pulled out, NY is back in the driver's seat and Cano will "lose" a ton of money.
God did Cano make a horrible mistake dumping Boras.
JayZ is so out of his element it's hilarious. I really think the Yankees can be pushed to go 8/200 in the final moment before pen goes to paper, but Cano's side doesn't know quite how to get it done.
JayZ is so out of his element it's hilarious. I really think the Yankees can be pushed to go 8/200 in the final moment before pen goes to paper, but Cano's side doesn't know quite how to get it done.
And really I just can't see Cano's side limping back to the table to take the 175. I think the Yankees have to let Cano's camp save a little face if they strike a deal, maybe make it 7/180 instead of 7/160-170.
Thanks Jay! That Boras diss is looking like a huge mistake if things keep going like this. Not to mention the album sucked.
Isn't some team with money going to look at this and feel like offering 4 years/$115 mil (or whatever it takes to get highest AAV, for shorter years) is the right way to give Jay Z, Cano, and the team a way out of this mess? Feels like that is the solution here, or else Yankees cave and throw in more cash. However, if reports Mariners would go 9/225 are true I doubt Yankees care to top that.
Jay Z still has a ways to go before matching Master P's epic "representation" of Ricky Williams. But he's getting there.
Because Jay-z knew that 10/252 would make the CEP explode and leave the room? Jayz could've been using the Mariners all along solely as leverage against the Yanks. And then when the Yanks wouldn't bite and Cano didn't want to hit in Seattle, Jayz demanded a deal he knew would infuriate the Mariners.
When did Boras fail during the Teixeria negotiations? Sox seemingly had the best offer then Bora's took it to Cashman at the 11th hour and they bettered it. No?
Right. Just the flying across country with the team thinking it was to sign a deal, only to have the agent ask for more. We'll see what he ends up signing for.
Right. Just the flying across country with the team thinking it was to sign a deal, only to have the agent ask for more. We'll see what he ends up signing for.
Sampo Gida said:
This is irrelevant for tax purposes. If you make $25m in salary in a calendar year it doesn't matter how often you're paid or the timing of the checks. The salary will be apportioned the same as if he was paid daily, weekly, monthly, or one big check on 12/31.