Can we take a good look at Brian Cashman's recent moves?

terrynever

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If Peter Chiarelli can be in trouble when the Bruins miss the playoffs, how do we explain Brian Cashman's seemingly bullet proof status after the Yankees have missed two straight playoffs, with a third looming?
 
In major transactions over the past three years, my scoreboard gives Cashman a 4-12-2 record, with the two representing deals without an edge to either side.
 
Let's start with 2014.
Winner -- Headley for Solarte and De Paula
Winner -- Signed Chris Young
Loser -- Traded Shane Greene to Detroit for Didi Gregorious ... before you tell me about Greene's short sample, which actually dates back to last summer, have you seen Didi swing a bat?
Undecided -- Phelps and Prado for Eovaldi, Domingo Germen and Garrett Jones. Eovaldi may be better than Phelps but the lefty-leaning Yankees sure miss Prado's right-handed bat.
Undecided -- Shawn Kelley to San Diego for RHP Johnny Barbato.
 
How about 2013?
Loser -- Signed Travis Hafner -- Oops.
Winner -- Acquired Shawn Kelley from Seattle for OF Abraham Almonte
Loser -- Let Robinson Cano walk
Loser -- Signed Brian McCann for five years
Loser -- Signed Ellsbury for seven years (leadoff hitter, age 30 at the time)
Loser -- Signed Carlos Beltran for 3 years, $39M. Just shoot me.
 
And then there was 2012
Winner -- Acquired Pineda and Campos for Montero and Noesi.
Loser -- Signed Andruw Jones
Loser -- Traded AJ Burnett for two guys whose mothers disowned them.
Loser -- Traded Steve Pearce for Baltimore for cash!
Loser -- Let Russell Martin walk
Loser -- Signed Ichiro for two years
Loser -- Signed Youk for one year at $12M.
 
 

cromulence

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I don't really know what to say here. It is WAY too early to judge the Shane Greene trade. You really really need to chill out on that. There's also the issue of how much of this was Cashman's idea - the word was that Beltran, McCann, etc was dictated by ownership. Also, you're just not being fair with stuff like signing Hafner or Andruw Jones. Those are relatively cheap one year deals that are trying to catch lightning in a bottle; I don't understand trying to ding him for them not working out.
 
I mean, come on, Steve Pearce? Yes, he had a career year last year. He's still Steve Pearce. He was DFA'ed and released over and over by multiple teams. You come off like you have an axe to grind, Terry.
 

glennhoffmania

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Beltran was 3/45, not 3/39.  But overall I agree with Cromulence.  We have no idea how much of this was Hank/Hal overruling Cashman.  You're also missing some moves- re-signing Headley and Drew, letting Cervelli go, letting Robertson go, signing Miller, etc.
 

Brianish

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cromulence said:
I don't really know what to say here. It is WAY too early to judge the Shane Greene trade. You really really need to chill out on that. There's also the issue of how much of this was Cashman's idea - the word was that Beltran, McCann, etc was dictated by ownership. Also, you're just not being fair with stuff like signing Hafner or Andruw Jones. Those are relatively cheap one year deals that are trying to catch lightning in a bottle; I don't understand trying to ding him for them not working out.
 
I mean, come on, Steve Pearce? Yes, he had a career year last year. He's still Steve Pearce. He was DFA'ed and released over and over by multiple teams. You come off like you have an axe to grind, Terry.
 
I think this right here is the biggest factor. We can talk about whether Cashman is a net positive or not, but either way I think we can identify a pretty clear tendency: When things go well, it's because Cashman's a genius. When they go poorly, it's because ownership forced him. There's a really potent confirmation bias at play, and Cashman is very good at using it to his advantage. That's not an insult; weathering shaky periods is absolutely a skill for a GM, and Cashman has it in spades. He understands PR. 
 
This is also not to say the narrative of Cashman good, Steinbrenner bad is even WRONG. It may be completely accurate; we don't have access to enough information to know. But it's inescapably a factor. 
 

Toe Nash

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You're missing a bunch.
Signing Tanaka 
Signing A Miller
Trading Banuelos for Shreve and Carpenter
Trading O'Brien for Prado in the first place
Trading Solarte for Headley
Trading Nuno for McCarthy (maybe should have re-signed McCarthy)
 
Reasonable minds can differ on these but you can't cherrypick here.
 
Also I think a lot of people would disagree with you on Cano. I'm not one of them, but it's pretty debatable.
 

rembrat

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cromulence said:
I don't really know what to say here. It is WAY too early to judge the Shane Greene trade. You really really need to chill out on that. There's also the issue of how much of this was Cashman's idea - the word was that Beltran, McCann, etc was dictated by ownership.
 
And there it is. Every single time we try to objectively evaluate Cashman as a GM the above argument, point for point, is hurled at us.
 
Rinse and repeat.
 
Sorry, terry.
 

glennhoffmania

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rembrat said:
 
And there it is. Every single time we try to objectively evaluate Cashman as a GM the above argument, point for point, is hurled at us.
 
Rinse and repeat.
 
Sorry, terry.
 
It's annoying but is in incorrect?  We can say with some degree of confidence that baseball ops decisions are ultimately made by Ben.  I don't think the same is true about NY.  It may be a stupid way to run a FO but it seems like that's the way it is.
 
I've been wondering for a long time how Cashman would do running, say, KC or Oakland (or any team without a meddling owner regardless of market size).  My guess is that he wouldn't be very good.  But I'd bet that we'll never find out.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I mean, it's reality. We can still try to evaluate Cashman, but for instance, resigning A-Rod after he opted out was totally Hank, Cashman was on record as wanting to move on. That contract being on the books has a ripple effect.
 
Another one to chalk up to ownership was the two year deal for Ichiro, that was never about baseball, but a move to try to sell more tickets to Japanese tourists. 
 

jon abbey

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Trying to determine 'winner' or 'loser' on trades so quickly seems pretty silly IMO. Even something like Solarte for Headley needs to play out for another year or two IMO to get a real reading on it. One that always comes to mind was when the Lakers got Pau Gasol for a package including his brother Marc. Memphis was majorly mocked for how little they received in this deal for years, until Marc turned into a MVP candidate. 
 

glennhoffmania

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jon abbey said:
Trying to determine 'winner' or 'loser' on trades so quickly seems pretty silly IMO. Even something like Solarte for Headley needs to play out for another year or two IMO to get a real reading on it. One that always comes to mind was when the Lakers got Pau Gasol for a package including his brother Marc. Memphis was majorly mocked for how little they received in this deal for years, until Marc turned into a MVP candidate. 
 
I disagree a little bit on the Solarte trade.  They could've had Headley this year (and the next 3) without trading for him.  The question is whether he provided enough value during his time in NY last year to justify giving up Solarte and De Paula.  But your larger point is well taken.
 

terrynever

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I understand what you guys are saying. Just thought it was time to renew a discussion that has been simmering for many years on this board. Is the Yankees' process too convoluted when it comes to decision-making? Does Cashman have a plan? Will he protect his prospects this summer or dump one or two in deals to keep this year's team afloat?

As for Cromulence's suggestion that I have an axe to grind. Not really. I'm a Yankees fan but my job required me to be objective. And cynical. That's all this is. Cashman pretty much gets a pass with the NY media because he plays them so well and has been around for so long with all of them, including a very good reporter, Joel Sherman. He knows how to feed them stories. They lose a real asset when he is gone. More to the point, if they criticize him, they lose an unnamed source inside the organization.
 

jon abbey

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It can be a good thread if we keep it going for years as more evidence comes in.
 
And there's no question in my mind that NY would be much better off with a fully hands-off owner instead of the Steinbrenner boys. Not every move they insist upon is a dud (Rafael Soriano ended up working out pretty well), but for the most part they just get in the way. 

And I do think NY has more of a macro plan (starting last summer?) than they have had in a while, trying to get under $189M got in the way for a few years, Jeter last year messed up roster construction (and gifted us multiple years of Brendan Ryan), but I think now Cashman (and Hal) are trying to get the team younger while waiting for all of these massive deals to expire and seeing how their current crop of prospects develops. The Robertson/Miller exchange while adding a first round pick is one example, signing the slew of young IFAs last year was another. Judge, Severino, Bird, I don't think these guys are going anywhere pretty much no matter what until they get a shot to succeed in the Bronx. 
 
You can argue that they shouldn't have moved Shane Greene but like I said in the other thread, Cashman thought he was selling high. He may still end up right, we'll see.

Also I think rolling Peter O'Brien into Eovaldi (via Prado) will end up looking like a genius move, but if O'Brien can learn to field some position adequately and Eovaldi keeps being talent more than results, that one could end up looking like a mistake too. 
 

EvilEmpire

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I think the biggest indicator that Cashman doesn't call all the shots is that he still has a job. We don't know exactly all the moves he pushed for or didn't, but the Steinbrenners do.

Hard to evaluate him. I also agree with JA on the ARod extension. That contract has had a ripple effect that will be felt for years to come. Without that move, I think the team could look much different.
 

terrynever

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It's a conversation we can come back to over the next couple of seasons, as JA pointed out. I can only hope they have a plan that involves giving these young prospects all a chance to win big league jobs over the next few years, instead of blocking them with veteran pickups. If they had just signed Drew to play SS and let Pireles and Refsnyder battle for second base this past spring, I would be much more approving. Didi scares the shit out of me with his swing and seeming lack of baseball intelligence. Yes, he is a great athlete.
 

terrynever

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Speaking of Eovaldi, he throws 98 and it's pretty straight. Shane Greene throws 95 with a cut. I would take my chances on Greene against MLB hitters over Eovaldi any day of the week. Maybe Eovaldi perfects a slider this year. We heard about it all spring.
 

brs3

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A quick google search suggests the Yankees minor league system is on the upper half of the league, as far as the quality of their system. Maybe I'm way off just from googling? Bleacher Report says their system is likely to improve in the next 2 years or so. 
 
That being said, we could be watching the MFY version of bridge years. Though they don't want guys like Beltran and McCann to be terrible, maybe they aren't that upset with how things are lined up when their system is improving. 
 

terrynever

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If they stuck with Greene and Drew after last year, this team would still have Prado and Phelps and would not have Didi. Refsnyder and Pirela would have fought it out for second base in the spring. I guess Cashman and Girardi were afraid to do that. I respect that. But that's not in line with any plan for giving the young prospects a chance when they are ready to compete for a job in the big leagues.
 

EvilEmpire

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It's hard for me to see Refsnyder as a solution to anything until he gets his own defensive issues worked out.

I know things are off to a bad start, but defensively, I think a middle infield of Didi and Drew will at least be solid. Maybe even good. I'm not as confident about Refsnyder.

Seems like Didi is just trying too hard. Let's see how he looks after some more games under his belt.

Edit: Clearly, when it comes to the Yankees, I'm a 'glass half full' guy.
 

terrynever

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Didi is a .189 hitter against LHP with a .495 OPS over 189 career at-bats. That does not bode well for a team that sees as many lefties as the Yankees will this season. At best, he looks like a platoon shortstop.

I just don't get why Cashman would trade Prado, who helped balance the offense from the right side last August. He was a useful tool for a manager. Plays five positions. Could have won the second base job. But Cashman and his scouts thought they could fix Eovaldi and turn him into a No. 2 starter. Good for them. Yanks have plenty of time to fix him. And Didi.

Cashman has a plan. Part of it hinges on Didi and Eovaldi instead of Prado and Greene. And it might get him fired before the kids can bail him out in 2017. Or maybe he is a lifetime GM?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think this right here is the biggest factor. We can talk about whether Cashman is a net positive or not, but either way I think we can identify a pretty clear tendency: When things go well, it's because Cashman's a genius. When they go poorly, it's because ownership forced him. There's a really potent confirmation bias at play, and Cashman is very good at using it to his advantage. That's not an insult; weathering shaky periods is absolutely a skill for a GM, and Cashman has it in spades. He understands PR.
And since Cashman is certainly aware of this narrative, maybe that's why he stays in his job. In a lot of ways, he's been bulletproof up until now.

Which is kind of funny, since it would be hard to imagine how a team with this many resources could be this bad for any length of time.

But as the old adage goes, GMs don't lose their jobs because their team is losing, they lose their jobs when fans lose interest. How long can the team go not making the playoffs and having a half-filled stadium?
 

rembrat

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The Post weighs in on Cashman's trading history with Dombrowski:
 

But there is a little more than an early read to this. Historically, when Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and Detroit counterpart Dave Dombrowski have traded with each other, the results have greatly favored Dombrowski.
 
Dombrowski, as the Marlins’ GM, stole Mike Lowell from the Yankees for three arms that became nothing.
In the first of three high-profile three-way trades that would involve the Yankees and Tigers, the Yanks ended up with Jeff Weaver while giving up Ted Lilly to the A’s with Jeremy Bonderman going to Detroit. Weaver bombed as a Yankee.
 
The Yankees salary/personality dumped Gary Sheffield on Detroit and got three more arms that they liked, but turned into nothing.
In the second of the big three-way deals, the Yanks did get Curtis Granderson, who was mostly productive for them, but the Tigers won the deal by getting Max Scherzer from the Diamondbacks and Austin Jackson from the Yankees.
 
The third big three-way deal involved the same teams as the second. Last December, the Yanks sent Greene to Detroit, which sent Robbie Ray and a prospect to Arizona, which sent Gregorius to New York.
 
Link
 
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, thats pretty ugly, I certainly didn't remember he was behind the Lowell one. Cashman may need to block his number going forward.
 
Every move has to be filtered through the ill-fated $189M attempt for at least two years (one could find the approximate dates as they were pretty public about it on both ends), and that was certainly owner-mandated. I'd say that lasted through the 2013-2014 offseason and up until the 2014 trading deadline, with the McCarthy and Prado and Headley moves. This past offseason I'd say can be pretty much fully attributed to Cashman (Greene/Eovaldi/Gregorius etc.), so we'll see. 
 
By the way, Eovaldi had his most called strikes in a game ever in his first start (27) and in his second start, he tied his career high in Ks with 9, mostly on offspeed stuff that the batters seemed to have no chance on. His stuff seems to all move a ton (except some of his hardest fastballs, Pedroia roped a single at 101) and I think McCann will get better at both calling it and catching it as they get more starts together. Greene is 15 months older than Eovaldi also, FWIW.