Cade to Black: 2021 NBA Draft Thread

Sam Ray Not

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This is pretty much directly from my recollection of Kevin O’ Connor’s evaluation on a podcast but isn’t Wagner a mediocre athlete at best?

I also thought that his defensive scouting report was a bit different. For some reason I remember it being that he was an excellent team defender but not very good man to man (because of his athletic limitations)
I haven’t watched them extensively enough to say for sure. Eye test, Barnes definitely looks like the much better man defender, with better aggression and lateral quickness. But that SBN piece has this to say about Wagner’s D:

“Wagner has a case as one of the better defensive prospects in this class. He’s able to stick with smaller ball handlers on the perimeter by showing impressive agility getting over screens and disrupting drivers and pull-up shooters with his length. He’s also big enough to defend a post-up or provide supplemental rim protection in the paint. He shows good awareness on when to rotate as a team defender.”

Barnes’ meh shot blocking and rebounding gives me a tiny bit of pause about considering him a lights-out elite defender, though some of that could be FSU’s defensive schemes. The guy who seems to be the true can’t-miss defensive stud of the draft according to scouts is Usman Garuba, but his lack of O seems to land him mostly in the mid to late first round.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Tatum taller than Moody, smoother, better passer, better defender, better creation, better athlete.

I don't really see the Tatum upside.
Tatum is significantly taller, but Moody actually has a couple inches longer wingspan, a crazy 7’-1”. Tatum was the better creator and athlete in college, probably, but those were two areas where JT got dinged as a prospect. IIRC, there were concerns in particular about his passing and ability to create for others (and there may still be, haha).

Of course Tatum is an elite superstar who hit his top 5% outcome, so it’s highly unrealistic to expect that from Moody. Just noting some of the parallels at similar ages. The advanced shooting and footwork at such a young age really stand out to me. Khris Middleton is probably a more realistic (optimistic) upside than JT.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I like Barnes a ton and would probably go Moody-Barnes-Wagner at #5-7 (after the Big 4) if you twisted my arm for a big board. But I don’t think the delta between “Frank” Wagner and Barnes is as big as you make it out to be. In Franz’s column you have…

• Much better FT shooter
• Much better three point shooter
• Much better rebounder
• Much better shotblocker

Not as a elite a defender per scouts, but no slouch in that area, and similarly versatile and switchable (probably closer to Barnes in terms of defensive versatility than to his brother). And he’s actually a month younger than Barnes, despite playing an extra year of college. The “really young for his class” part is I think an underplayed part of his appeal. He put up his college numbers as a skinny kid going against mostly older players, and has apparently added a ton of grown man strength since the end of the season — which applies even more to Moses Moody, who is nine months younger than both Wagner and Barnes, and looked totally yoked in his most recent press event.

One great thing about guys who can stroke the 3 and defend multiple positions right out of the gate — Moody, Wagner, Duarte, Trey Murphy, e.g. — is you can keep them on the floor while they figure out all the other stuff, without killing your team on either end. With Barnes you have to take your lumps on the offensive end for a while, and pray he figures out the shooting end sooner than later. Jalen Johnson fits that description as well, imo.

Moody actually strikes me as this year’s Jayson Tatum: super young, smooth. precociously great shooting form and footwork, good length and defensive versatility, stellar reports about his character and work ethic … but getting dinged by scouts for a supposed lack of explosive athleticism and finishing ability, which I think is more a matter of adding grown man strength than anything else.

TLDR: I’ll be giddy if we grab Moody at #7, and moody if we grab Giddey. :)
That’s a pretty big hype job on Wagner. Similar defensively??

“Stroke the 3 right out of the gate?” He was the master of the up-fake due to his slow release last year and even when he did get it off shot at a 34% clip.....which was up from 31% his first year but his attempts decreased by 25% so his shot selection improved which is what the eye test saw as well (many more up-fake and passes). He struggled offensively against length. 1-10 vs UCLA, 1-9 vs Illinois, 2-10 vs Ohio St one game and only got 4 shots off in the other. He had huge games agaiant zones and less athletic defenders against Wisconsin (twice), Iowa and Nebraska. These weren’t one-offs.....there was a consistency in who he had success against and who he didn’t. This doesn’t bode well for him at the next level.
 

Sam Ray Not

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That’s a pretty big hype job on Wagner. Similar defensively??

“Stroke the 3 right out of the gate?” He was the master of the up-fake due to his slow release last year and even when he did get it off shot at a 34% clip.....which was up from 31% his first year but his attempts decreased by 25% so his shot selection improved which is what the eye test saw as well (many more up-fake and passes). He struggled offensively against length. 1-10 vs UCLA, 1-9 vs Illinois, 2-10 vs Ohio St one game and only got 4 shots off in the other. He had huge games agaiant zones and less athletic defenders against Wisconsin (twice), Iowa and Nebraska. These weren’t one-offs.....there was a consistency in who he had success against and who he didn’t. This doesn’t bode well for him at the next level.
Yeah, I overstated the shooting in the line you cite. He’s got a slow-ish, low-ish release point, and shot average-ish from 3 on low-ish volume. He’s clearly not a can’t miss natural from 3 like Kispert or Moody. The reasons to buy into his shooting are (1) 84% from the stripe at age 18-19 is really good; and (2) a slow, low release is less of a problem when you’re 6’-9”.

He may never be a great shooter, but I think he’ll hit enough not to hurt you offensively. Which I’m a lot less confident about with Barnes.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Here was I thought a pretty accurate scouting report on Moody…

“Moody has solid height for a shooting guard at 6-6 in shoes, as well as a strong build, but doesn't possess ... incredible explosiveness. He's a fluid athlete who moves well and has decent quickness, but isn't the type of prospect who will be jumping over or dominating other players physically.

> He has outstanding footwork and balance

> There are also some question marks about Moody's ball-handling ability and how prolific of a shot-creator he will become at the NBA level.

> In the rare cases that he does get inside the paint, he is not a great finisher, due to his average explosiveness

> While Moody may not possess superstar potential, he also comes with very little risk, as it will be very very surprising if he doesn't end up developing into at least a solid NBA player. At age 18, as the youngest player who will hear his name called on draft night, and someone who is younger than many of the players who participated in this year's McDonald's All-American game, there is plenty of room for him to continue to improve despite not possessing incredible physical tools or upside.”

Oh wait … did I say Moody? That’s actually the scouting report for Devin Booker. :)
 

JM3

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Tatum is significantly taller, but Moody actually has a couple inches longer wingspan, a crazy 7’-1”. Tatum was the better creator and athlete in college, probably, but those were two areas where JT got dinged as a prospect. IIRC, there were concerns in particular about his passing and ability to create for others (and there may still be, haha).

Of course Tatum is an elite superstar who hit his top 5% outcome, so it’s highly unrealistic to expect that from Moody. Just noting some of the parallels at similar ages. The advanced shooting and footwork at such a young age really stand out to me. Khris Middleton is probably a more realistic (optimistic) upside than JT.
Tatum was 6'8 with +3 in college. He's now listed at 6'10 so I'll assume his arms also grew, but yeah...I just don't see Moody as having + NBA athleticism.

He had the lowest steal rate of the top 6 Arkansas players & never seems to do anything above the rim despite his length.

Most of his baskets seemed to be open 3s, transition layups & some occasional midrange shots where he was able to use his length to shoot over defenders he hadn't shook.

In the SEC/NCAA tournaments he averaged 0.5 apg & was 6-30 from the floor in their last 2 games of the tournament.

He also had a 3 game stretch in February where he shot 9-40 against FLA/AL/LSU. Amazingly he still scored 56 points in those games because he was 33-40 from the line.

It'll be interesting to see how translatable his ability to get to the line will be to the NBA because he shot free throws at a much higher rate than basically all the other wing prospects, including Cade.

Middleton seems like an OK upside comp... but Middleton was the 39th overall pick & has probably hit his 0.3% upside range. He was a 32% point shooter in 3 years at A&M & somehow has been a 40% guy since starting with his 2nd year in the league.

Idk, without thinking about it too much I'd think he'd be fine in the 8-12 range but he has a lot of work to do.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Tatum was 6'8 with +3 in college. He's now listed at 6'10 so I'll assume his arms also grew, but yeah...I just don't see Moody as having + NBA athleticism.

He had the lowest steal rate of the top 6 Arkansas players & never seems to do anything above the rim despite his length.

Most of his baskets seemed to be open 3s, transition layups & some occasional midrange shots where he was able to use his length to shoot over defenders he hadn't shook.

In the SEC/NCAA tournaments he averaged 0.5 apg & was 6-30 from the floor in their last 2 games of the tournament.

He also had a 3 game stretch in February where he shot 9-40 against FLA/AL/LSU. Amazingly he still scored 56 points in those games because he was 33-40 from the line.

It'll be interesting to see how translatable his ability to get to the line will be to the NBA because he shot free throws at a much higher rate than basically all the other wing prospects, including Cade.

Middleton seems like an OK upside comp... but Middleton was the 39th overall pick & has probably hit his 0.3% upside range. He was a 32% point shooter in 3 years at A&M & somehow has been a 40% guy since starting with his 2nd year in the league.

Idk, without thinking about it too much I'd think he'd be fine in the 8-12 range but he has a lot of work to do.
All great points.

I still can’t quite figure out Middleton, an average-ish athlete for a wing who didn’t rebound, pass, hit threes, draw fouls, or hit free throws at a particularly high level in three years of college, and must have the lowest arc on his shot of any great shooter ever. I guess some combo of sneaky-great footwork / hand-eye coordination and a killer work ethic? The hope with Moody is that he has all those things, at a much younger age, with a better looking shooting stroke and foul-drawing skills. But as you say, the chances of Middleton becoming Middleton were slim to none.

One question: is drawing fouls not an ability that tends to stay relatively consistent in young players, kinda like rebounding?

Two of my big concerns with Davion Mitchell as an NBA prospect (on top of his poor FT shooting, 6-4 wingspan, and advanced age) are that he was an atrociously bad rebounder and foul drawer, especially for a ripped 22 year-old physical beast who was 2-3 years older than most of the guys he was competing against.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Middleton seems like an OK upside comp... but Middleton was the 39th overall pick & has probably hit his 0.3% upside range. He was a 32% point shooter in 3 years at A&M & somehow has been a 40% guy since starting with his 2nd year in the league.
Middleton is a great example of a player who was a prospect DESPITE his lack of shooting. He stood out to me in one late season game at A&M where he got to the rim at will so smooth like a men amongst boys. I made a point to watch him at the Combine where he raised my eyebrows. I posted it either here or the old private board as a guy to keep his eye on similar to what I did with Jeremy Lin from Summer League one year......but it had nothing to do with his shooting as he was coming off a 26% year beyond the arc.
 

JM3

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All great points.

I still can’t quite figure out Middleton, an average-ish athlete for a wing who didn’t rebound, pass, hit threes, draw fouls, or hit free throws at a particularly high level in three years of college, and must have the lowest arc on his shot of any great shooter ever. I guess some combo of sneaky-great footwork / hand-eye coordination and a killer work ethic? The hope with Moody is that he has all those things, at a much younger age, with a better looking shooting stroke and foul-drawing skills. But as you say, the chances of Middleton becoming Middleton were slim to none.

One question: is drawing fouls not an ability that tends to stay relatively consistent in young players, kinda like rebounding?

Two of my big concerns with Davion Mitchell as an NBA prospect (on top of his poor FT shooting, 6-4 wingspan, and advanced age) are that he was an atrociously bad rebounder and foul drawer, especially for a ripped 22 year-old physical beast who was 2-3 years older than most of the guys he was competing against.
The Davion hype is out of control. Seems destined to be overdrafted.

I'm honestly not sure how well drawing fouls translates. My guess is that to some extent it has to do with the type of player & how they draw fouls.

The SEC seems to foul a lot - Cam Thomas from LSU actually led the NCAA in free throw attempts this year (Moody was 5th). Last year Mason Jones from Arkansas led the NCAA in fta (Jones did average 6.9 ft/36 this season in the NBA).

Going through players in the top 10 in fta who actually made it to the NBA (with real rolls)...

In 2018-2019 Ja was 5th in fta & averaged 6.5/36 this year. Grant Williams was 8th & only averages 1.6/36.

The year before, Trae was 2nd & he did 9.2/36 this year.

2 years before that, Grayson Allen was 8th & he's at 2.6/36.

I learned nothing from this except the fact that the guys who shoot the most free throws in college aren't usually going to the NBA, & that perhaps players with limited athleticism don't have their free throw rates translate, but those that do, do.
 

JM3

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Middleton is a great example of a player who was a prospect DESPITE his lack of shooting. He stood out to me in one late season game at A&M where he got to the rim at will so smooth like a men amongst boys. I made a point to watch him at the Combine where he raised my eyebrows. I posted it either here or the old private board as a guy to keep his eye on similar to what I did with Jeremy Lin from Summer League one year......but it had nothing to do with his shooting as he was coming off a 26% year beyond the arc.
That was an odd draft. Lots of head scratching top 10 picks (Waiters/TRob/Rivers), tons of mediocre late 1sts (Fab/Jared Cunningham/Wroten, etc etc) & then several good 2nd rounders who there was clear indications would be better (Middleton/Dray/Crowder/Barton/Satoransky).

I think if that draft was this year, teams would have made smarter decisions as I think the league as a whole has gotten much smarter since then.

Pretty much all those busts suffer from not being able to shoot AND not having other translatable skills, & all the steals were either better shooters, had more translatable skills, or both.
 

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That was an odd draft. Lots of head scratching top 10 picks (Waiters/TRob/Rivers), tons of mediocre late 1sts (Fab/Jared Cunningham/Wroten, etc etc) & then several good 2nd rounders who there was clear indications would be better (Middleton/Dray/Crowder/Barton/Satoransky).

I think if that draft was this year, teams would have made smarter decisions as I think the league as a whole has gotten much smarter since then.

Pretty much all those busts suffer from not being able to shoot AND not having other translatable skills, & all the steals were either better shooters, had more translatable skills, or both.
To be clear, I had NO idea that Khris Middleton the kid with that quick and deceptive first step with nasty spin move to beat his man would turn into Khris Middleton, lights out 3-point shooter and multi-year All-Star. I just thought he was a 2nd rounder who could be a rotation player.
 

JM3

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To be clear, I had NO idea that Khris Middleton the kid with that quick and deceptive first step with nasty spin move to beat his man would turn into Khris Middleton, lights out 3-point shooter and multi-year All-Star. I just thought he was a 2nd rounder who could be a rotation player.
Yup. I mean even today he's probably going like 25 without the benefit of hindsight.
 

JM3

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My compliments to any GM with the courage to take a tweener future role player like Wagner top 5.
Top 5 seems...aggressive, but he seems like a pretty clear 4 to me. Wouldn't be the worst fit for a win now team like the Warriors if they don't move their picks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My compliments to any GM with the courage to take a tweener future role player like Wagner top 5.
I mean there is literally zero chance of that happening. I was more mocking the legitimacy of anything else that writer opined on. There is a decent chance he has a Nik Stauskas-like career.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Very nice layering this Under a few times and beginning some Suns when they were down double digits.

Obv far from winners yet but in great position.
 

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I mean there is literally zero chance of that happening. I was more mocking the legitimacy of anything else that writer opined on. There is a decent chance he has a Nik Stauskas-like career.
Yeah I can see him getting that kind of minutes, that kind of efficiency, probably will rebound and defend a bit though. Right team drafts him late lottery, and he's not a bad guy to have around, but there's 10 guys in this draft better.
 

Jimbodandy

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Top 5 seems...aggressive, but he seems like a pretty clear 4 to me. Wouldn't be the worst fit for a win now team like the Warriors if they don't move their picks.
I'm trying to figure out who on the floor on either team right now he could cover. Drawing a blank.
 

JM3

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Franz may never be more than a rotation guy, but I don't really see the Stauskas comp at all. He's 3 inches taller, 5 inches longer & has very good defensive instincts. If he gets stronger & improves his release/shot he will be fine.

He just lacks elite upside so he's not a very exciting pick, but yeah, late lottery seems fine.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Franz may never be more than a rotation guy, but I don't really see the Stauskas comp at all. He's 3 inches taller, 5 inches longer & has very good defensive instincts. If he gets stronger & improves his release/shot he will be fine.

He just lacks elite upside so he's not a very exciting pick, but yeah, late lottery seems fine.
Never more? I mean isn’t that the upside for him to reach? He is a different player than Staukas however still faces similar obstacles in finding his niche as a role player. He may find that niche but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was out of the league in 5 years either.
 

JM3

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Never more? I mean isn’t that the upside for him to reach? He is a different player than Staukas however still faces similar obstacles in finding his niche as a role player. He may find that niche but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was out of the league in 5 years either.
Upside I think is a competent starter. I'd be surprised if he's not at least a 9th guy for like 10 years.
 

nighthob

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I think that Franz Wagner has an NBA future. Honestly the guy he reminds me of is Junior Dunleavey. He’s competent at a lot of things without being good at any of them. But a guy like that has a future as a rotational (top 8 on a roster) player. And honestly once you’re in the mid first round (which is what “late lottery” actually means) getting a rotational player is a decent result.

But it also depends on where your team is talentwise. If you’re the Warriors getting Franz Wagner at 14 is a good result because you can probably plug him into your rotation on day one and he’ll be fine. On the other hand, if you’re a team like the Spurs you need to think about taking a home run swing in the late lottery in hopes that your development staff can turn them into a star.

Sometimes, of course, your home run swing might have much more limited upside (*cough* Aaron Nesmith *cough*). But that’s the way the draft cookie crumbles, not all drafts are created equal. The 2020 draft was a shitty year to have a high pick because there was nearly no starpower in it, but it was very deep in roleplayers (which I’d made note of long in advance).

This draft has huge starpower, I don’t see a lot of bust potential for Cunningham or the first two Jalens. Mobley has huge upside, but is still raw (but I’m pretty confident that he’s going to be an all star too). The next two guys after that (Kuminga and Barnes) have bust potential, but (assuming that Cunningham, Green, Suggs, and Mobley are the top four) they have some real upside. Barnes’s 1% projection is an MVP level five position defender while Kuminga’s is Matrix 2.0. And as you’re essentially making a mid lottery pick at those positions those are some pretty good results.

Unfortunately for the people drafting 7-14 you’re in the roleplayer part of the draft. Moses Moody would be a home run swing in this section. I could see the Warriors (if they make the mistake of making the picks) taking that swing on Moody hoping for a Klay replacement (although I could also see them taking a shot at Keon Johnson). For the GMs of rebuilding teams that’s the worst spot to be in, not bad enough to be in a spot to draft an easy star and having to find productive players with those picks if you hope to keep your job. For those guys Wagner is the right pick, but if Moody hits his 1% projection you’re going to get grief from the local fans.

EDIT: Stop giving HRB grief over Frank Wagner, my tablet also denies non-English names and made the exact same autocorrect.
 

tbb345

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Sam Vecenie released his draft board today.
Had Kuminga 5, Barnes 6, Moody 7 but had Wagner down at 14.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Speaking of Kuminga. He’s at the top of my All-Bust team. 14 makes great sense for Frankie Wagner even though I still prefer drafting upside until late 1st/early 2nd.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Tatum is significantly taller, but Moody actually has a couple inches longer wingspan, a crazy 7’-1”. Tatum was the better creator and athlete in college, probably, but those were two areas where JT got dinged as a prospect. IIRC, there were concerns in particular about his passing and ability to create for others (and there may still be, haha).

Of course Tatum is an elite superstar who hit his top 5% outcome, so it’s highly unrealistic to expect that from Moody. Just noting some of the parallels at similar ages. The advanced shooting and footwork at such a young age really stand out to me. Khris Middleton is probably a more realistic (optimistic) upside than JT.
Tatum's wingspan isn't that special. It's his standing reach.
 

JM3

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I kinda decided I wouldn't mind taking a late 1st round flyer on BJ Boston today. Especially if it turns out he actually likes playing basketball.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I kinda decided I wouldn't mind taking a late 1st round flyer on BJ Boston today. Especially if it turns out he actually likes playing basketball.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a contender with strong leadership taking a shot on Boston. Frankly, it would be the best way for him to become disciplined in his work ethic to grow his body and his game.
 

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Celtics Blog has a whole series on draft prospects from a C's perspective if we were to trade back into the first round. Seems to me highly unlikely but a few guys seemed interesting that I hadn't heard much about:

JT Thor, 6'10 athletic guy with some skills, "one of the fastest guys in the draft". Was 4th or so down the list of offensive options at Auburn so didn't get a lot opportunities there.

Ayo Dosunmo, 6'5 combo guard from Illinois. Varied scouting opinions on him, but they seem to think he's a good fit and might be had early 2nd.

Isaiah Todd, 6'10 center who played in the G league bubble, stretch 4/5 potential with good athleticism. Also might be an early 2nd guy.

If you were to trade up, who would you be thinking of, and at what cost?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Celtics Blog has a whole series on draft prospects from a C's perspective if we were to trade back into the first round. Seems to me highly unlikely but a few guys seemed interesting that I hadn't heard much about:

JT Thor, 6'10 athletic guy with some skills, "one of the fastest guys in the draft". Was 4th or so down the list of offensive options at Auburn so didn't get a lot opportunities there.

Ayo Dosunmo, 6'5 combo guard from Illinois. Varied scouting opinions on him, but they seem to think he's a good fit and might be had early 2nd.

Isaiah Todd, 6'10 center who played in the G league bubble, stretch 4/5 potential with good athleticism. Also might be an early 2nd guy.

If you were to trade up, who would you be thinking of, and at what cost?
I don’t believe the Celtics have any intention of moving up since they hadn’t worked out any projected 1st rounders. I like Dosunmo and Todd especially......I think the latter is going to go higher than many feel as he’s currently a mid-2nd projection.
 

Cellar-Door

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I just assumed that people had Barnes on that list, he's #3 on my board after Cade and Jalen Green. If he can rebuild that jumper he's a legitimate MVP candidate.
I think he needs way more than rebuilding the jumper, he doesn't appear to have any offensive moves at all in terms of creating his own shot. He strikes me as a guy who could be Siakam if he fixes his jumper, not an MVP candidate.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think he needs way more than rebuilding the jumper, he doesn't appear to have any offensive moves at all in terms of creating his own shot. He strikes me as a guy who could be Siakam if he fixes his jumper, not an MVP candidate.
Pre-bubble Siakam with PG skills on both ends is pretty close to an MVP candidate. Not saying that is what Barnes will become but the tool kit is all there.

Also, is there anyone else who thinka Kai Jones can be a better pro than Mobley?
 

Kliq

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Pre-bubble Siakam with PG skills on both ends is pretty close to an MVP candidate. Not saying that is what Barnes will become but the tool kit is all there.

Also, is there anyone else who thinka Kai Jones can be a better pro than Mobley?
I can't get my head around Mobley. Some people are really in love with him because of his size, defensive upside and skills, but at the same time I also see him as a pretty significant project, especially on offense. I think there is a really questionable history of bigs getting praised for flashing the ability to maybe shoot, but then they get to the NBA and they really are major works in progress when it comes to shooting. Mobley's college shooting numbers aren't great (30% from three, 69% from the line) and I'm getting flashbacks to Mo Bamba, DeAndre Ayton, James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley III, Jonathan Issac, Marquese Chriss, etc. All were bigs who were drafted high in part because of the idea that they could potentially shoot well from deep, but have come into the NBA and been brick-layers.

If Mobley isn't a very good three point shooter, what value is he bringing on that end of the floor? He doesn't have a post game and isn't a natural playmaker. So he is just a screen-and-lob guy? He's super long and athletic and has some skill, but I think his shooting is a big question mark and I would be weary about passing on Cade, or Green or Suggs; it feels like a big gamble.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I can't get my head around Mobley. Some people are really in love with him because of his size, defensive upside and skills, but at the same time I also see him as a pretty significant project, especially on offense. I think there is a really questionable history of bigs getting praised for flashing the ability to maybe shoot, but then they get to the NBA and they really are major works in progress when it comes to shooting. Mobley's college shooting numbers aren't great (30% from three, 69% from the line) and I'm getting flashbacks to Mo Bamba, DeAndre Ayton, James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley III, Jonathan Issac, Marquese Chriss, etc. All were bigs who were drafted high in part because of the idea that they could potentially shoot well from deep, but have come into the NBA and been brick-layers.

If Mobley isn't a very good three point shooter, what value is he bringing on that end of the floor? He doesn't have a post game and isn't a natural playmaker. So he is just a screen-and-lob guy? He's super long and athletic and has some skill, but I think his shooting is a big question mark and I would be weary about passing on Cade, or Green or Suggs; it feels like a big gamble.
Mobley has dreamy mechanics, touch and developing range for a big. I wouldn’t categorize him in that group as shooters you listed at all. 69% from the line is pretty good for a Freshman especially one who entered January at 61% and without mechanical flaws.

I’m more high on Jones than down on Mobley although I do feel Mobley is being overvalued here. He has the skill set but I question his lower body strength and motor a little too much to have him in the top three. I’ll speak more of Jones later.
 

the moops

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At what pick in the first round does it make sense, value wise, to trade that pick for a future pick?

Obviously depends on how far out the pick is, but say if BOS wants to get into the first round and offers a top 4 protected 2023 pick, is there anyone in the first round that makes that trade?
 

HomeRunBaker

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At what pick in the first round does it make sense, value wise, to trade that pick for a future pick?

Obviously depends on how far out the pick is, but say if BOS wants to get into the first round and offers a top 4 protected 2023 pick, is there anyone in the first round that makes that trade?
Without looking at cap space there are always a couple of contenders with tight finances who would prefer not to have a low 1st rounder take up their valuable space. I mentioned yesterday that it’s unlikely Brad would do this as he hasn’t brought any projected 1st rounders in. If he convinced an agent that he was serious about his guy at a number that agent would surely get him in there. That’s not the tell-all but it is a strong clue.
 

Cellar-Door

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He lists so many players that have little chance of being on the board at 45. Grimes....seriously? He could sneak into the 1st.
I mean, he lists Grimes in a single sentence, which includes "could go as early as the 1st round".

Anybody who isn't a consensus 1st rounder could well be on the board at 45, the 2nd round is very fluid in most years.
 

TripleOT

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Ayo Dosunmo, 6'5 combo guard from Illinois. Varied scouting opinions on him, but they seem to think he's a good fit and might be had early 2nd.

Isaiah Todd, 6'10 center who played in the G league bubble, stretch 4/5 potential with good athleticism. Also might be an early 2nd guy.

If you were to trade up, who would you be thinking of, and at what cost?
Ayo would be a good development project, if Boston wants to get into the back of the first round. He’s 6’5” with a 6’10” wingspan, a possible PG with size that would go well with the Jays.

I’m big on Isaiah Todd, 7’1” wingspan, only 19 and shot the three ball at 36.2%. 82% FT shooter. He could be a stretch big, and might be there at 45, although probably will go in the top of the second round. Todd is a Drew Hanley guy, and was one of the top bigs in the 2020 HS class.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I mean, he lists Grimes in a single sentence, which includes "could go as early as the 1st round".

Anybody who isn't a consensus 1st rounder could well be on the board at 45, the 2nd round is very fluid in most years.
I mean sure but consensus-wise of most reliable mocks nearly all project to go within top-40.
 

chilidawg

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I mean sure but consensus-wise of most reliable mocks nearly all project to go within top-40.
Which means it's pretty likely that one or more will drop to 45. And I hadn't seen the Bleijenberghenator on a mock yet.

Edit: Tankathon has Jones 44, Preston 31, Edwards 45, VB 49, Ayayi 30, Wieskamp 51. Pretty spot on it seems to me.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Which means it's pretty likely that one or more will drop to 45. And I hadn't seen the Bleijenberghenator on a mock yet.

Edit: Tankathon has Jones 44, Preston 31, Edwards 45, VB 49, Ayayi 30, Wieskamp 51. Pretty spot on it seems to me.
Looking at the posted Vegas Over/Under, every player listed is below 42.5 with exception of Edwards and VB who aren’t posted. Maybe I’m not picking but they don’t project to be available when we pick (of course they “could” be).

Edit: I have no idea why Ayayi’s number is so high. If his O/U remains at 30.5 when my places post these I’d imagine it would be one of my stronger plays. Who is taking him in the first round?