Cade to Black: 2021 NBA Draft Thread

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,144
It's a great and fun question: my two cents is that he'd be a great five in today's game, overall likely similar value but with a little more risk of slowing an offense. He was an impact rebounder and rim protector in a bigger era, those will only be amplified today. He was quick, so he could handle switching and defending on the perimeter better than many bigs today can---I actually suspect he'd be even more impactful defensively today than he was in his prime era. His offensive game would be somewhat more harmful today than it was then, but he was survivable as a screener then and he still would be today. You just build your offense around assumption he's on the weak side trying for offensive rebounds or setting screens near the ball and deal with the fact you are largely 4 on 5. That will hurt a bit more today because he'd be switched off and shaded away from even more by smaller 5s guarding him, but that's the cost of getting the production at the other end.
I think his biggest issue might be his career 41% ft shooting. I feel like he would get hacked relentlessly unless he figured that out. Would make him go from an offensive detriment to an offense killer.

I also think that some of his value on defense was that he was so unique back then. Now the archetype is a bit more common. He would definitely be a ++ defender & a useful rotation guy...if he could get his free throws even to like 55%, but I definitely don't think there would be a HOF possibility.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,518
around the way
Kevin Pelton cutting against the CW with his latest statistical projections…

Sengun #1
Giddey #5
Mitchell #42

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31890625/nba-draft-2021-ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting

Grain of salt (Pelton allows that these are based heavily on stats, with no defensive evaluation) though by the same system last year he did nail Ball, Haliburton, and Edwards…
All of the scouting guys here nailed Ball, Haliburton, and Edwards too, fwiw.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,342
Overperforms:

Sengun - I’d have no problem with him going 6 here. Super young, Super skilled. Seems like he plays each possession with a purpose. If I had the 3 I’d trade down for him & add another pick.
Kai Jones - Oooozes upside. Has all the physicals and can handle ball, initiate offense. Sky is limit.
Cooper - Stepped into middle of season and was incredible with the ball. Must slow game down and learn to shoot but despite size he can get to next level.
Christopher - Strong skill set. Had great start and returned from injury to a clusterfv
BJ Boston - Kid was a Top-3 prospect 8 months ago. Certainly flier worthy where he will go.
Thor - Long, athletic and some ball skills. Very young. He needs the right situation to grow up in but the physicals are there.
Bassey - Never thought I’d be including him on this list but he can make a roster and find a role long term. Former lottery projection that you can grab in 40’s? Yeah sign me up.
Robinson-Earl - Worth a late 2nd as a guy who can make a rotation one day as a stretch 4 with super high


* Would have had Sharpe on here as I wrote about him earlier in thread when he was around #40......now the market is indicating he could go in the low 20’s.

* I like so many of the PG’s that listing them all would be redundant. I’ll simply say i



Underperforms:

Wagner - Zero star power. Scouting reports on his left hand could render him very limited.
Mobley/Suggs - Grouping together bc I don’t think either will fully bust but not enough star power for me to have at 3 & 4.
Kuminga - If Dion Waiters and JR Smith had a love child.
Garuba - Don’t really see it. Could be back in Spain in 5 years.
Kispert - He is who you draft today. One trick pony who can hurt you as much if not more on other end. If game doesn’t slow down for him, yikes.
Ayayi - Hate how his game translates.
Duarte, Z.Williams, Murphy III, I.Jackson.....not fans of any of them translating
 
Last edited:

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
That gives us Suggs at #4 in Toronto and poor Scottie Barnes getting buried in Orlando. For the sake of NBA prospects everywhere that organization should be forbidden to have first round picks. :D
 

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
2,035
I guess Orlando is building towards a roster that can win every game 1-0.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
One thing's for sure, Mobley's going to be the guy they want. Given how badly that organization is run if I were the Cavs I'd be on the phone to get #5/#8/future firsts because there's no way that the Magic can resist the urge to draft a big man.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,342
One thing's for sure, Mobley's going to be the guy they want. Given how badly that organization is run if I were the Cavs I'd be on the phone to get #5/#8/future firsts because there's no way that the Magic can resist the urge to draft a big man.
They may get their baby-Jokic big at 8 with Sengun.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,375
Overperforms:

Sengun - I’d have no problem with him going 6 here. Super young, Super skilled. Seems like he plays each possession with a purpose. If I had the 3 I’d trade down for him & add another pick.
Kai Jones - Oooozes upside. Has all the physicals and can handle ball, initiate offense. Sky is limit.
Cooper - Stepped into middle of season and was incredible with the ball. Must slow game down and learn to shoot but despite size he can get to next level.
Christopher - Strong skill set. Had great start and returned from injury to a clusterfv
BJ Boston - Kid was a Top-3 prospect 8 months ago. Certainly flier worthy where he will go.
Thor - Long, athletic and some ball skills. Very young. He needs the right situation to grow up in but the physicals are there.
Bassey - Never thought I’d be including him on this list but he can make a roster and find a role long term. Former lottery projection that you can grab in 40’s? Yeah sign me up.
Robinson-Earl - Worth a late 2nd as a guy who can make a rotation one day as a stretch 4 with super high


* Would have had Sharpe on here as I wrote about him earlier in thread when he was around #40......now the market is indicating he could go in the low 20’s.

* I like so many of the PG’s that listing them all would be redundant. I’ll simply say i



Underperforms:

Wagner - Zero star power. Scouting reports on his left hand could render him very limited.
Mobley/Suggs - Grouping together bc I don’t think either will fully bust but not enough star power for me to have at 3 & 4.
Kuminga - If Dion Waiters and JR Smith had a love child.
Garuba - Don’t really see it. Could be back in Spain in 5 years.
Kispert - He is who you draft today. One trick pony who can hurt you as much if not more on other end. If game doesn’t slow down for him, yikes.
Ayayi - Hate how his game translates.
Duarte, Z.Williams, Murphy III, I.Jackson.....not fans of any of them translating
Watched way less college this year than usual, I am with you on Suggs, Wagner and Kispert but a fan of Ayayi as a later guy with some upside. Interested that you like Jones---haven't seen enough to have an opinion but I rarely am optimistic about tools-goof big guys.
 

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,250
Overperforms:

Sengun - I’d have no problem with him going 6 here. Super young, Super skilled. Seems like he plays each possession with a purpose. If I had the 3 I’d trade down for him & add another pick.
Kai Jones - Oooozes upside. Has all the physicals and can handle ball, initiate offense. Sky is limit.
Cooper - Stepped into middle of season and was incredible with the ball. Must slow game down and learn to shoot but despite size he can get to next level.
Christopher - Strong skill set. Had great start and returned from injury to a clusterfv
BJ Boston - Kid was a Top-3 prospect 8 months ago. Certainly flier worthy where he will go.
Thor - Long, athletic and some ball skills. Very young. He needs the right situation to grow up in but the physicals are there.
Bassey - Never thought I’d be including him on this list but he can make a roster and find a role long term. Former lottery projection that you can grab in 40’s? Yeah sign me up.
Robinson-Earl - Worth a late 2nd as a guy who can make a rotation one day as a stretch 4 with super high


* Would have had Sharpe on here as I wrote about him earlier in thread when he was around #40......now the market is indicating he could go in the low 20’s.

* I like so many of the PG’s that listing them all would be redundant. I’ll simply say i



Underperforms:

Wagner - Zero star power. Scouting reports on his left hand could render him very limited.
Mobley/Suggs - Grouping together bc I don’t think either will fully bust but not enough star power for me to have at 3 & 4.
Kuminga - If Dion Waiters and JR Smith had a love child.
Garuba - Don’t really see it. Could be back in Spain in 5 years.
Kispert - He is who you draft today. One trick pony who can hurt you as much if not more on other end. If game doesn’t slow down for him, yikes.
Ayayi - Hate how his game translates.
Duarte, Z.Williams, Murphy III, I.Jackson.....not fans of any of them translating
Agree with many, love Kai Jones, thought he was going to be a steal when people were talking about him to Charlotte at 11. Don't understand at all the recent mocks that have him down to the 20s. OKC would be insane to pass him up at 18

Boston feels like Hampton last year, just fallen to far, but I can kind of see why some of the win now teams at end of round don't make sense for him.

Boston, shouldn't get past early 30s, but might

Wagner, yeah, I like the player in the 20s to a win now team , but do feel he won't be close to a top 10 talent from this draft in 5 years, but maybe a solid role player (maybe not)

I get where you are at on Mobley / Suggs, but I can't really put anyone ahead of them. I think Mobley becomes Ayton at least. Suggs will be a solid starting guard for a decade.

Kuminga, yeah I think he falls, maybe out of top 10 tonight. Maybe he will be a stud, but Id put his complete bust potential as very high compared to almost anyone else who will go in the first round

Kispert. He'll help a team, but I think we are talking a Korver type at best, one dimensional player.

Also with you on Duarte. When they were talking about him being a mid 20s player. I think it makes a lot of sense of him being a limited role player on a win now team. But now there are rumors of him potentially in late lottery, or mid teens, and I think that is an AWFUL pick at that point.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
His dad commented on IG in Turkish that he thinks it will probably be Orlando, so you might be right about #8. #5 is probably too early.
Eh. It's the Magic, they'd draft Mobley at #5 and still draft Sengun at #8.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,835
Big fan of Cade, Schmitz said he's the most complete prospect he's ever evaluated. Basketball would be better if Detroit is good.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,901
Big fan of Cade, Schmitz said he's the most complete prospect he's ever evaluated. Basketball would be better if Detroit is good.
Agreed. And the dude is so composed and confident, on and off the court. Hope he becomes a star.

I don’t know if anyone saw the prospect runway show, but I aspire to vibe like Ziaire Williams’s dad.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,835
Barnes goes #4. Will he learn how to shoot? That will make or break him.
 

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,250
Scottie Barnes jumps up to #4, Well that puts a monkey wrench in things. I wonder if it is a trade?

Also don't know what Orlando does now, the only thing they don't need is Suggs. Maybe move him to the Warriors, or get a pick or two from OKC?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,144
I like this for Barnes' career. Suggs to Magic works, too.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,781
He was my #1 this year... but Perk comparing him to Bill Russell is... something lol.
You don’t go from 5 ppg to a big chair at ESPN without being able to put out hot takes on a regular basis.

From being reticent to talk on KG’s Area 21, to not being able to shut up, that’s Perk the past few years
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,144
No one on the Magic can shoot so this is a cleaner fit for both teams.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,144
I pulled up Woj's Twitter just now & I was like huh I wonder what he knows about "OKC loves Josh Giddey here" & had actual reasons, but then I remembered that's just how Woj spoils picks.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,835
I really like Giddey's game. Will be interesting to see him in the SL.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
Apparently the Warriors couldn’t complete a trade of #7 and are going to hold on to Matrix v2.0. They have the vet infrastructure to develop him, though.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,144
Perk:

Ok to compare Mobley to Russell
Not ok to compare Kuminga to Jaylen
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
6,008
Kuminga taken by the Warriors. Very interested in whether this is being done for a trade, because with Curry's prime potentially close to ending this is not the guy you should take. I've seen potential Jaylen Brown comps, but that is like 4-5 years down the road i.e. his second contract.
 

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,250
I get sort of the Brown comparison for Kaminga. And maybe he can learn to defend, but Brown had proven his defensive bonifides coming out of Cal. Kaminga may have the athleticism, but he certainly hasn't shown anything.

Certainly a weird roster with all the 30+ guys, and then Kaminga and Wiseman
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
How did the Magic resist the urge to draft Sengun? It must have killed them to draft a mere F.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
6,008
This is why I have the ESPN feed up for video on half my computer screen and Chad Ford's YouTube live show on in the other half to listen to. No interest in Perk's thoughts tonight.