Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

BigSoxFan

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Current title odds on Draft Kings:

Lakers +250
Nets +320
Clippers +500
Bucks +700
Jazz +800
Sixers +1200
Celtics +2500
Nuggets +2500
Heat +3300
Suns +3300
Mavs +5000
Raptors +5000

I feel like Sixers, Celtics, Nuggets, Heat, Suns, Raptors all represent pretty good value.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Current title odds on Draft Kings:

Lakers +250
Nets +320
Clippers +500
Bucks +700
Jazz +800
Sixers +1200
Celtics +2500
Nuggets +2500
Heat +3300
Suns +3300
Mavs +5000
Raptors +5000

I feel like Sixers, Celtics, Nuggets, Heat, Suns, Raptors all represent pretty good value.
Phoenix and Philly are the two that seem way out of whack. I’d probably flip Utah and the Clips numbers. The Sixers line to me seems way off.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Before you degens see this Total at 316.5 and contact your bank, loan shark or rich uncle for a “short term loan” we are returning to the NBA’s “Kobe Scoring System” tonight.

Each Q will begin 0-0 with the charity of the team winning that Q receiving a donation. At the beginning of the 4Q, the game clock will be turned off and a final target score will be set based on the leading team's cumulative score through the first 3Q. That target score will be the leading team's total score plus 24 points.

With the expected pace and shotmaking along with the lack of resistance I still feel the 316.5 may be a little low but not by much so a small entertainment wager on the Over.

* NOW......my real play goes at halftime with Cassius Stanley to win the Dunk Contest against Simons and Toppin. He’s currently -130 (was +110 at one time).

More pizza money plays.......
LeBron has won 3 straight (I believe) in this format and he has the horses again. I’ll lay the 3.5 to root for the GOAT one more time.

MVP angle.....eliminate the bigs, the chalk, those nursing injuries/don’t seem to be motivated, and expecting Team LeBron to win the game. Based on elimination I’m looking at Chris Paul +3500, Curry +900, Lillard +850 with loose change thrown on Zach from the other side at +5000 as he’s capable of going nuts if his teammates give him the opportunity.

Edit: Bonus college play. Over 140.5 NW/Nebraska goes at 1:30est
 
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rymflaherty

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Happy to have the over at 309.
Seemed obvious at the time, and I’m always leery when something seems that way. Considering that and it being a glorified exhibition, I only put my equivalent of a unit and a half, but maybe in hindsight should have been more aggressive...figured it was going to be a placeholder; but now that it’s just kept rising, I won’t be going back to the o/u.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Happy to have the over at 309.
Seemed obvious at the time, and I’m always leery when something seems that way. Considering that and it being a glorified exhibition, I only put my equivalent of a unit and a half, but maybe in hindsight should have been more aggressive...figured it was going to be a placeholder; but now that it’s just kept rising, I won’t be going back to the o/u.
Great number! I hadn’t looked at this with so much going on yesterday looks like I missed the CLV boat.

I am going to add a few peanuts to Doncic MVP at +1100 in case his back is fine. If it is he’s live here.
 

rymflaherty

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I got the 309 on DK’s Friday morning.
Crazy thing is it was also -109
I recently learned this thread exists and almost posted to ask if there was something obvious I was missing with the number...sorry I didn’t now if it’s something others would have jumped on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah you always want to play the ASG Over the minute it comes out as the public always hammers the Over right up to game time every year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I didn’t partake in any season-long win totals or other props due to the qualifiers (many win totals will be voided due to teams not completing their schedule). There is one I clicked this morning where I see value in the Pacific Division’s 3-team race between the Lakers (-110), Clippers (-150), and Suns (+290).

All three have 24 wins with Phoenix holding a 2-game lead in the loss column to the Lakers and 3-games to the Clippers. Aside from load management (which favors Phoenix), one can make a case that the Suns have the easier remaining schedule of the three and certainly not materially worse. On top of these factors there is the intangible of Phoenix valuing these regular season games more than the two LA teams.

I dunno, +290 seems like a ridiculous price to me.


* Bonus college play - St John’s +1050 to win Big East Tournament.

Great draw in the crippled Villanova bracket along with a Bye.
 
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Marceline

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I didn’t partake in any season-long win totals or other props due to the qualifiers (many win totals will be voided due to teams not completing their schedule). There is one I clicked this morning where I see value in the Pacific Division’s 3-team race between the Lakers (-110), Clippers (-150), and Suns (+290).

All three have 24 wins with Phoenix holding a 2-game lead in the loss column to the Lakers and 3-games to the Clippers. Aside from load management (which favors Phoenix), one can make a case that the Suns have the easier remaining schedule of the three and certainly not materially worse. On top of these factors there is the intangible of Phoenix valuing these regular season games more than the two LA teams.

I dunno, +290 seems like a ridiculous price to me.
I like this, and my book had it at +432, even better!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Unders have been on fire in the first games back post-ASB. This is your friendly reminder that there are several early afternoon games this weekend. Proceed at your own will but you can call me Luc Longley......cuz I’ll be living down Under!
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Bonus college play - St John’s +1050 to win Big East Tournament.

Great draw in the crippled Villanova bracket along with a Bye.
Non-NBA and NBA tidbits:

- Right idea, wrong execution on the Johnnies. Buddy of mine cashed a +1850 ticket on the Hoyas.

- NHL capper friend of mine told me the Rangers (+160 vs Bruins) was a good play today and to look into fading the Bruins over the next week or two.

- Atlanta Hawks have won 4 in a row since their coaching change. They play the Cavs on Sunday.

- I had zero MMA knowledge until I began following a couple of the best MMA cappers out there to gain a base. Tonight, HRB sprang into action. He was prepared, fired up, and ready to enter the cage himself! Then he went 0-3 with two of the fights lasting less than 20 seconds. He will continue speaking in third person until he cashes a ticket.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don’t know if there is a separate NCAA wagering thread so I’ll put this here for now. Stuff I’m playing in the morning or later tonight if my places here then.

Numbers are going to move (quickly I’d imagine) but here's what I'm on with my number in parenthesis.

* Winthrop +6.5 and ML
* Loyola-Chic -2 (-7)
(The Winthrop ML/Loy-Chic -2 parlay will pay about +420 or so, good value & worth a sprinkle)

Gap to.....
Appalachian St -3 (-7.5)
Baylor -26.5 (-31).....the 1H number should be good here too.
(Really like these two a lot as well)

Gap to.....
Cal-Santa Barbara +7.5 (+4.5)
Oregon St +8 (+4.5)
Ohio U +9.5 (+6)
Arkansas -9.5 (-13)
Texas Tech -5 (8.5)
(Like price and matchups, especially the Ark matchup which was worse case for Colgate)
 

djbayko

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I like this, and my book had it at +432, even better!
Just seeing these posts now. I agree completely with HRB's analysis. DSI, BetAnySport, and nitrogen had this at +460 which just seems insane to me. LA bias working in our favor here. I did a thorough re-assessment of NBA futures during the ASB, and this is the only one I put a significant amount of money on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* LA Clippers -2

NBA dog days are here as we’ve seen by some lopsided results recently. This is the time of year to look for motivated sides and this is one I’ve even seen it. Clippers coming off a no-show drubbing at the hands of the Pelicans AND I’m sure will be reminded of the 50-point beating the Mavs gave them earlier in the season.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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FD is running one of its free money “Spread the Love” promos for play-in games. Currently Spartans +56.6 and counting at -110. Max bet $50.
 

Marceline

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Just seeing these posts now. I agree completely with HRB's analysis. DSI, BetAnySport, and nitrogen had this at +460 which just seems insane to me. LA bias working in our favor here. I did a thorough re-assessment of NBA futures during the ASB, and this is the only one I put a significant amount of money on.
Yeah nitrogen was where I got it at +432. Crazy they went even higher with it.
 

BigSoxFan

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* LA Clippers -2

NBA dog days are here as we’ve seen by some lopsided results recently. This is the time of year to look for motivated sides and this is one I’ve even seen it. Clippers coming off a no-show drubbing at the hands of the Pelicans AND I’m sure will be reminded of the 50-point beating the Mavs gave them earlier in the season.
Good work. I piggybacked.
 

rymflaherty

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Damn it, there was a DK’s odd boost I actually liked, but now it’s gone...
Lavine, Randle, Tatum and Mitchell to all score 20+
Figured that I don’t have to worry about those odds changing, so I’d look into the value closer when I had the chance and determine how much I wanted to wager...lesson learned I guess. Assuming they don’t put it back up (though I’d imagine the odds or points scored will be much less favorable) guess I’ll just hope for something like Randle and the Knicks to struggle in the b2b, and it turns into a blessing in disguise.
 

benhogan

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I don’t know if there is a separate NCAA wagering thread so I’ll put this here for now. Stuff I’m playing in the morning or later tonight if my places here then.

Numbers are going to move (quickly I’d imagine) but here's what I'm on with my number in parenthesis.

* Winthrop +6.5 and ML
* Loyola-Chic -2 (-7)
(The Winthrop ML/Loy-Chic -2 parlay will pay about +420 or so, good value & worth a sprinkle)

Gap to.....
Appalachian St -3 (-7.5)
Baylor -26.5 (-31).....the 1H number should be good here too.
(Really like these two a lot as well)

Gap to.....
Cal-Santa Barbara +7.5 (+4.5)
Oregon St +8 (+4.5)
Ohio U +9.5 (+6)
Arkansas -9.5 (-13)
Texas Tech -5 (8.5)
(Like price and matchups, especially the Ark matchup which was worse case for Colgate)
any feel for San Diego State v Syracuse?

SD St. coach said they haven't faced a zone all season, but they have 5 days to prepare for it (and Cuse's zone isn't exactly stellar this year)
 

HomeRunBaker

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any feel for San Diego State v Syracuse?

SD St. coach said they haven't faced a zone all season, but they have 5 days to prepare for it (and Cuse's zone isn't exactly stellar this year)
Yeah I’ve got conflicting views on this one but should be great to pass and watch.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In-game players keep eye on Lakers/Wolves tonight. When they played a month ago the two combined for 170 in first 3Q then the Lakers took air out of the ball and the 4Q landed on 46. Earlier in the year a Laker blowout yielded similar 4Q Total result of 48. I did not watch the first one (or I don’t recall) but in the recent matchup it was walk it up for the entire 4Q without any inclination to hammer the already beaten down Wolves.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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In-game players keep eye on Lakers/Wolves tonight. When they played a month ago the two combined for 170 in first 3Q then the Lakers took air out of the ball and the 4Q landed on 46. Earlier in the year a Laker blowout yielded similar 4Q Total result of 48. I did not watch the first one (or I don’t recall) but in the recent matchup it was walk it up for the entire 4Q without any inclination to hammer the already beaten down Wolves.
I usually don’t seek out an in-game play rather allow them to show up......but this Laker game is setting up perfectly for their 4Q Under.

It’s like an exhibitor game with zero intensity, sloppy play, little defense and a lot of points. This was similar to their last game when the pace suddenly stopped and it resulted in 12 minutes of walking it up, half court defense and contested shots. Based on the Wolves short handed lineup they themselves are going to have trouble scoring in the 4Q if it’s close and LA flips the switch defensively.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Couple good ones tonight.

* Celtics -7 in a fantastic get right spot. You don’t get any better than this.

* Bulls +7 in Denver. 2-game business trip coming off loss while Nuggets in a flat comfort spot in middle of long home stand off couple wins.
 

HomeRunBaker

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These OT games are kicking me in the nuts this year like never before. Played Under in Heat game and Knicks game. The pace and game flow were so extreme I bought two more Unders in-game in each game. Both games go to OT, the pre-game Unders lasted but lost all 4 of my in-game plays. This has happened to me more in the last two months (some I’ve shared here) than in the last 2-3 years. At wits end.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t know if anyone gets this right away but bought in-game Over 147.5 in Ok St/Oregon St. Both teams in double bonus and 10-pt spread is prime for a FT line parade.

Edit: After OK missed layups on 3 straight trips it’s down to 143.5 with 5 to go if you can get it this is good.
 

BigSoxFan

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Don’t know if anyone gets this right away but bought in-game Over 147.5 in Ok St/Oregon St. Both teams in double bonus and 10-pt spread is prime for a FT line parade.

Edit: After OK missed layups on 3 straight trips it’s down to 143.5 with 5 to go if you can get it this is good.
Put $10 on this parlay:

Cuse
Arkansas
Oral Roberts
Oregon State

Pocketed a cool $720...
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t know if anyone gets this right away but bought in-game Over 147.5 in Ok St/Oregon St. Both teams in double bonus and 10-pt spread is prime for a FT line parade.

Edit: After OK missed layups on 3 straight trips it’s down to 143.5 with 5 to go if you can get it this is good.
Easy Peasy! Couldn’t have worked out better with those empty possession so I could buy more at the lower number while the mechanics of the play hadn’t changed. It doesn’t always work that way lol.

Well done BSF!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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It is rare to find spots where you’re getting free money as events such as a Mayweather/MacGregor boxing match don’t happen every week......but this may be as close as there is to it. I looked at this last week and to be honest, since I’m not really a futures guy, I completely forgot about it.

You can still get Miami at anywhere from -200 to -300 to win the Southeast Division which to me is great value. They are finally healthy and likely going to be adding some pieces at the deadline to make an EC run. They are currently essentially in a 3-way tie with Atlanta and Charlotte. The Hawks took advantage of a coaching change and a cupcake schedule to win 8 in a row before losing to the Clippers tonight. They have a brutal west coast trip over the next 10 days and will be fortunate to end this road trip 2-5. The Hornets just lost Ball and aren’t likely buyers here. Barring crazy injury stuff happening I don’t see any reason why Miami doesn’t coast to a 5+ game win in the division.
 

Marceline

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You can still get Miami at anywhere from -200 to -300 to win the Southeast Division which to me is great value. They are finally healthy and likely going to be adding some pieces at the deadline to make an EC run. They are currently essentially in a 3-way tie with Atlanta and Charlotte. The Hawks took advantage of a coaching change and a cupcake schedule to win 8 in a row before losing to the Clippers tonight. They have a brutal west coast trip over the next 10 days and will be fortunate to end this road trip 2-5. The Hornets just lost Ball and aren’t likely buyers here. Barring crazy injury stuff happening I don’t see any reason why Miami doesn’t coast to a 5+ game win in the division.
-180 at betonline. I don't usually do futures unless at + odds due to the outlay required to sit inactive but this is very tempting.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What about Spurs +450? About even with Dallas right now in the standings.
I don’t like this one as you would likely need Doncic to go down for an extended period to get this one home......but pizza money on +450 is rarely bad. The Spurs schedule is brutal following this 9-game home stand, that began with a loss to Charlotte, with three difficult road trips. Tankathon has it the 2nd highest SOS rest of way while the Mavs have the easiest......and are the better team.
 

Marceline

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I looked at Nitrogen for the Heat to with the division bet so I could keep it denominated in bitcoin and not lose money if it pops again in the next 2 months. It was -192, then it moved to -227 by the time my deposit cleared.

Edit: Still -180 at betonline.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Got -185 on FD.

Pacific Division is off the board entirely, that Suns +300 bet at the break looking good.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got -185 on FD.

Pacific Division is off the board entirely, that Suns +300 bet at the break looking good.
Win or lose this may have been one of the greatest value plays I’ve ever made. Not as much invested as I do with Miami for their division just due to the variance of both LA teams being so much greater of a threat than Atlanta and Charlotte.

Locked in final Miami play at -265. Another reason I stay away from these as my locals have terrible numbers even though this one is still much better than where my handicap has it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Two NBA goodies tonight:

* Lakers +5.5 in New Orleans (7:40 est)
* Under 219.5 Sixers/Warriors (10:10 est)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Unders have been crushing of late since the ASB. I think the grind of a condensed season is beginning to take its toll on these players......then there is Sacramento who try to give up baskets early in the shot clock solely for the purpose of getting the ball back. Some of these scores have been wacky and not even remotely close to the number. Tonight’s 4 completed games for example:

* Knicks closed 224, landed on 208.
* Spurs closed 220, finished 183.
* Heat closed 216, finished 247.
* Kings closed 229, ended up at 260.

The totals are adjusting and if they aren’t the number is being hammered down early. Something to watch moving forward.
 

HomeRunBaker

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For those keeping track.....the Miami Heat are 0-5 since I began taking a Division Win position on them. Visiting Charlotte in what I never expected to be considered an important game at this juncture.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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For those keeping track.....the Miami Heat are 0-5 since I began taking a Division Win position on them. Visiting Charlotte in what I never expected to be considered an important game at this juncture.
And getting absolutely folded (on a b2b after a tough game, to be fair).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Two best for today. Finally have a Celtics game crack my best bets.

* OKC +6.5

Great scheduling spot. Sprinkling a tiny some on the ML.


* (sweet sixteen) Houston Cougars -6.5

Usually looking at these tournament games for a good/bad matchup on one end of the floor. In this case Syracuse has a terrible matchup for them on both ends. Disclaimer: I played early in week at -5 but this should be ugly from my seat.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Split the two best yesterday when OKC forgot their was a 4Q. Sorry Cuse fans but that was a brutal draw for your style. I think the Atlanta Hawks are about to feel the pain of this road trip beginning tonight as their cupcake schedule is in their rear-view mirror.

* Nuggets -4.5


Hope some of you were awake for the 1pm game today. Went to OT and still finished 20 points below the total.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Sticking with fading Atlanta tonight. They seem to be extremely overvalued these past couple games based on a win streak against the dregs of the league despite being in the middle of a brutal road trip. I always refer back to a quote from an ex-player (Barkley maybe) that the toughest game of the year was whoever was on the schedule after playing at Milet High.

* Phoenix -5.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Add Hayward to the list of bum ankles helping our divisional bets, HRB.
After the awful luck the last two years in this futures market in overdue for a couple easy W’s. I don’t even want a sweat lol.

More Under last night as 8 of the 10 games landed below the number. I should have posted the Mavs/Knicks one but nearly every game I had leaning that way lately. Same for tonight especially the low Knicks and low Heat numbers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If the two early start time games I like the Lakers/Clippers Under the best. Would like to find a prop on neither reaching triple-figures if I could get 3.5-1 on it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Keep forgetting this thread exists with all the Brad and Kemba stuff lol.

Tonights best - Under 221.5 Clippers/Rockets

Other good stuff:
Bulls +2
Warriors -4.5
Under 223 Bucks/Hornets
 

HomeRunBaker

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Keep forgetting this thread exists with all the Brad and Kemba stuff lol.

Tonights best - Under 221.5 Clippers/Rockets

Other good stuff:
Bulls +2
Warriors -4.5
Under
 

HomeRunBaker

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Looks like two more Sunday afternoon Unders. 1H’s not even close. These numbers are now (finally) being pounded. ATL/Char opened 221.5 and bet down to 213.5 while Celtics game bet down 4 points as well.

Edit: Of what’s left tonight I like Miami -1 the best.
 
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