Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Suns and Denver are dogs. Hrb, talk me out of losing money on them.
I like Phoenix. My position on the Lakers hasn’t changed and is even stronger after last game. Staples fans may boo them off the floor tonight.

I like Portland. Being way overweight on them in the series I’m sitting this one out but I’d be playing them otherwise. I don’t trust the Nuggets supporting cast on the road and I’ll let someone else play agaiant Dame in an elimination game.
 

BigSoxFan

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I like Phoenix. My position on the Lakers hasn’t changed and is even stronger after last game. Staples fans may boo them off the floor tonight.

I like Portland. Being way overweight on them in the series I’m sitting this one out but I’d be playing them otherwise. I don’t trust the Nuggets supporting cast on the road and I’ll let someone else play agaiant Dame in an elimination game.
I went with LA due to LeBron in elimination games and some likely ref help.

But I don’t feel great about it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You nailed the Lakers pretty hard this series, with some injury help from AD.
It helped cover my Blazers series fiasco. Rivers and Porter stuck the knife in me there but the Blazers gave it away last night despite Porters 1Q heroics.

Gotta play the Clips tonight. This series just seems destined to go 7 the way it’s played out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nothing preflop in Nets/Bucks tonight but played Under in both games Sunday......1U on Hawks/Sixers 220.5 and 2U on Mavs/Clips 211.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is Nets +4 a sucker bet?
I would lean toward a yes but the Nets are my team this playoffs so a 2H comeback isn’t out of the question unless the Bucks simply blow their doors off early (which they “could” do). If the Bucks are going to win a game in this series it will be tonight.

I have Bucks 1H -3.5 as my only preflop action. Looking at some Over scoring props on Middleton and Lopez but haven’t decided yet.
 

HomeRunBaker

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No idea why this Nets total is still 228. Are these Unders the gift that keeps on giving?

Played Nets, Played Under. Sprinkled an Open 3-team parlay using these two correlated plays.
 

BigSoxFan

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Updated series odds per Draft Kings:

The Kyrie injury shifted things significantly. Good value for Nets now but obviously far more risk.

Bucks -129
Nets +105

Tied 2-2

Hawks +500
Sixers -770

Sixers up 2-1

Clippers +155
Jazz -195

Jazz up 2-1
 

djbayko

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Updated series odds per Draft Kings:

The Kyrie injury shifted things significantly. Good value for Nets now but obviously far more risk.

Bucks -129
Nets +105

Tied 2-2

Hawks +500
Sixers -770

Sixers up 2-1

Clippers +155
Jazz -195

Jazz up 2-1
If anyone is seriously interested in the Nets, there's a lot better odds out there (around +145 to +155) than these at DK. As always, shop around.
 
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BigSoxFan

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If anyone is seriously interested in the Nets, there's a lot better odds out there (around +145 to +155) than these at DK. As always, shop around.
Wow, I would take +145 Nets all day with 2 of 3 in Brooklyn.
 

BigSoxFan

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Hawks +500 to win series before tonight may have been an astute bet. I, of course, didn’t make it.
 

BigSoxFan

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There's no way in hell the Hawks looked like winning the series before last night. Don't be too hard on yourselves.
At 5:1 odds, not a bad bet, especially with Embiid clearly hobbled. Still think Sixers win but wouldn’t be overly shocked if they don’t.

p.s. Go Hawks!
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Hawks +1800 to come out of the East on DK. Embiid and Harden both look like shit, Kyrie is probably out for a while, MIL are choke artists, and the Hawks look mostly healthy and spry. They're dogs but they aren't 18-1 dogs.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hawks +1800 to come out of the East on DK. Embiid and Harden both look like shit, Kyrie is probably out for a while, MIL are choke artists, and the Hawks look mostly healthy and spry. They're dogs but they aren't 18-1 dogs.
Yes this is a tremendous price. In reality they are probably 10-1 or 12-1......something in that range.
 

BigSoxFan

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Before series, made 2 separate bets on Nets in 6 and 7 at +450 each instead of doing -200 for Nets to win series.

Then got Bucks +230 this morning so either make a small amount of money if Bucks win or do pretty well if Nets win either game. Bucks line fell to +180 so glad I locked it in.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Any ideas why Hawks are dogs tonight despite Giannis news?
Atlanta had their big emotional win w/o Trae that coincided with the Bucks standard letdown when an opposing star is out. Now the roles are reversed.....the Bucks will be the team with the chip on their shoulder and the Hawks face a letdown and missing Trae leaves then few options if their emotions aren’t peaking. Personally, I expect the Bucks to win handily.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Back in the game after a couple week hiatus. It’s typical to see Totals lowered as a series extends into games 4 and beyond as the defenses are more dialed in on the offensive sets as the game trends more toward the halfcourt.

The total in G4 hasn’t adjusted yet so looking to get ahead of the move by a game or two.

* Under 221 (-113)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Back in the game after a couple week hiatus. It’s typical to see Totals lowered as a series extends into games 4 and beyond as the defenses are more dialed in on the offensive sets as the game trends more toward the halfcourt.

The total in G4 hasn’t adjusted yet so looking to get ahead of the move by a game or two.

* Under 221 (-113)
Chicken Dinner!!!

Early number for Saturday’s G5 is 218.5 which still isn’t adjusted enough. I had tonight’s at 216 and Sat at 213 so getting another 5 pts of value. I locked some Under up tonight as I’m expecting money to close it no higher than 216.
 

BigSoxFan

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Chicken Dinner!!!

Early number for Saturday’s G5 is 218.5 which still isn’t adjusted enough. I had tonight’s at 216 and Sat at 213 so getting another 5 pts of value. I locked some Under up tonight as I’m expecting money to close it no higher than 216.
Well done. I saw this too late. Was worried an OT was going to screw you.
 

SteveF

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Bucks won last night by 6, but that was only a close game by virtue of make or miss. Looking over the series stats, the Bucks are just getting so many more shots per game by virtue of turnovers and offensive rebounds. Bucks in 6 is +400, and Bucks to win the series is +135. Those both look like decent bets to me. Thoughts?
 

ElUno20

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Those odds are really loving the Phoenix homecourt. We've had the booker game, i dont see another one coming. I guess the biggest thing left is the cp3 game.

I'd roll the dice on both and buy a Jrue Holiday jersey. Anything on offense + his defense would damn near guarantee a bucks title.

Hrb, hasnt it been chalk each game? I dont think there's been a "dog" to win a game yet in this series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Those odds are really loving the Phoenix homecourt. We've had the booker game, i dont see another one coming. I guess the biggest thing left is the cp3 game.

I'd roll the dice on both and buy a Jrue Holiday jersey. Anything on offense + his defense would damn near guarantee a bucks title.

Hrb, hasnt it been chalk each game? I dont think there's been a "dog" to win a game yet in this series.
Yup the home teams have held serve. The new variable in this series now appears to be Chris Paul. The Suns outplayed the Bucks on Milwaukee’s home floor in G4 and would have won comfortably with any type of decent PG performance. Despite Paul’s disaster the game still went down to the wire. I’m only playing the Total but if Paul simply had an off night or was ill in G4 I’d expect them to win comfortably should Paul bounce back. I’m sticking to only playing this for a slow paced defensive focused game though bc I don’t trust that there isn’t something more serious going on with his health.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is where you can find edges in Live play that the algorithms don’t pick up like Holiday heading to the bench in early foul trouble. Granted can still lose but I’ll take this edge anytime. Played Phoenix 1H -4 as he was walking to the bench.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Came right back with some Under 221 tonight. The lights out shooting of G5 can’t be sustainable......at least I would think not.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Forgot to post but I played the following on France this Sunday vs USA.

+14 game
+12 game
+ 7.5 1H
Under 95.5 USA Team Total
France/France (HT/FT) +686

So much going against Team USA in this one (and in Tokyo as a whole). Zero chemistry, questionable motivation, no fans, Booker/Middleton still playing in Finals, and going up agaiant a formidable France squad.

I haven’t played any Futures yet but I will with USA so ridiculously overvalued. I don’t think they run and don’t really even expect them to medal. A complete meltdown is not out of the question either imo.
 

Red Averages

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I am finally back in NH and ready to party. Let’s get some in game action going.
I’m tailing HRB on the under. Hoping for an early run by Mil to add to it and take Phx line
 

Red Averages

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Already started laddering the under, but we are quickly down to 210. Need to let it breathe.
 

Red Averages

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Starting a few small plays on phx money line (+185). No excuse for bucks not to come out hot given the atmosphere. If something goes against what you expect you need to acknowledge it….
if phx makes a run and becomes a favorite I’ll likely go the other way.

o/u down to 207.5 already. Amazing how fast that repriced. I have about 3 units in the mid teens at adjusted (+) levels.

let me know if these updates get annoying
 

HomeRunBaker

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If Phoenix wins this game they are going to need Cam Payne and Cam Johnson to play big roles.

On another note, Payne is going to get Paid this summer. He’s the best PG on the floor in a Finals game.
 

Red Averages

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Oh look PHX leading… Middleton with 3 fouls is huge. If he grabs a 4th I will need to hammer phx. Already in the penalty too.
 

Red Averages

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Starting a few small plays on phx money line (+185). No excuse for bucks not to come out hot given the atmosphere. If something goes against what you expect you need to acknowledge it….
if phx makes a run and becomes a favorite I’ll likely go the other way.
phx favored! Oh Lordy….
Now I’m not going against it yet. The Middleton injury and the reffing makes me want to let this breathe.